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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.41% at 59309 as the dollar and bond yields ticked higher, although hopes for a pause in rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve after July meeting limited the decline. Data showed the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, touching the lowest level in two months amid ongoing labor market tightness. Physical gold demand stalled in India as monsoon rains and a spike in domestic prices kept buyers at bay, while bullion was sold at high premiums in top consumer China. Indian dealers were offering a discount of up to $6 an ounce over official domestic prices unchanged from the last week. In China, gold changed hands at premiums of anywhere between $9 and $17 an ounce to global prices, compared with premiums of $10 and $14 charged last week. In Hong Kong, gold was sold at $0.50-$2.25 premiums, while Singapore dealers charged $1.50-$2.50 premiums. Swiss gold exports fell by 23% in June from May due to lower shipments to China and India, Swiss customs data showed. Supplies to China and India fell by one third and one quarter respectively in June, the data showed. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -6.94% to settle at 6780 while prices are down -243 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 59127 and below same could see a test of 58946 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 59538, a move above could see prices testing 59768.

Trading Ideas: 

* Gold trading range for the day is 58946-59768.

* Gold eased as the dollar and bond yields ticked higher

* US weekly jobless claims fall to two-month low

* Physical gold demand stalled in India as monsoon rains and a spike in domestic prices kept buyers at bay

Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -0.63% at 74970 amid fears that central banks may not be done with interest-rate hikes. Data showed the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, touching the lowest level in two months. The U.S. Federal Reserve may pause interest rate hikes after delivering a 25-bps rate hike next week. That said, there is speculation that the U.S. central bank may keep interest rates higher for longer to rein inflation. Besides the Fed, policy meetings of the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan are also due in the week. The Fed will decide on monetary policy next week, with a 25bps hike in the fed funds rate fully priced in, although investors remain divided on the need for further increases. The chances for another quarter point rise currently stand at 17% for September and 30% for November, compared to 12% and 23% respectively the day before. Existing home sales in the US, which include completed transactions of single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums, and co-ops, fell 3.3% to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 4.16 million units in June of 2023, the lowest level in five months, and compared to forecasts of 4.2 million. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -3.8% to settle at 18030 while prices are down -479 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 74641 and below same could see a test of 74311 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 75470, a move above could see prices testing 75969.

Trading Ideas: 

* Silver trading range for the day is 74311-75969.

* Silver dropped amid fears that central banks may not be done with rate hikes.

* Data showed the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week

* There is speculation that the U.S. central bank may keep interest rates higher for longer to rein inflation.

Crude oil 

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 1.4% at 6298 amidst fears of lower supplies from Russia and signs of declining inventories. Investors also assessed chances of further stimulus from China after rating agencies sent stark warnings about Wanda Commercial, China's biggest commercial real estate firm. Russia may consider introducing quotas on the export of oil products in a bid to stabilize global gasoline prices, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said. Moscow aims to reduce its third-quarter crude export plans by 2.1 million tons, in line with its previously stated pledge to cut overseas shipments by 500,000 barrels a day. Meanwhile, amid concerns over rising interest rates and a worsening economic outlook, the Chinese government has pledged to make the private economy "bigger, better and stronger" with a series of policy measures. U.S. crude oil stockpiles in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) rose by about a thousand barrels last week, the first increase since January 2021, according to data from the Energy Information Administration. The U.S. Department of Energy has begun buying oil to refill the SPR, after inventories fell to their lowest level since 1983 in recent months due to congressional mandates to release oil from the reserve to tame high commodity prices. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 15.78% to settle at 7717 while prices are up 87 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6244 and below same could see a test of 6190 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6338, a move above could see prices testing 6378.

Trading Ideas: 

* Crude oil trading range for the day is 6190-6378.

* Crude oil gains amidst fears of lower supplies from Russia

* Investors also assessed chances of further stimulus from China

* Russia may consider introducing quotas on the export of oil products in a bid to stabilize global gasoline prices.

Natural Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -1.82% at 221.7 on forecasts for less demand next week than previously expected. That price decline came despite a drop in daily output and forecasts for hotter-than-normal weather to continue through early August, especially in Texas and California. The latest EIA report showed U.S. utilities added 41 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage last week, less than forecasts of a 48 bcf injection. Also, despite gas output still rising in July compared to the previous month, it has been declining in the past two days. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 101.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in July, up from 101.0 bcfd in June. That compares with a monthly record of 101.8 bcfd in May. On a daily basis, however, output was on track to drop by 1.8 bcfd to a preliminary five-week low of 99.4 bcfd on Friday due mostly to declines in Pennsylvania and Colorado. Meteorologists forecast the weather in the Lower 48 states would remain hotter than normal through at least Aug. 5. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -1.79% to settle at 9701 while prices are down -4.1 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 218.7 and below same could see a test of 215.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 226.6, a move above could see prices testing 231.6.

Trading Ideas: 

* Natural gas trading range for the day is 215.8-231.6.

* Natural gas eased on forecasts for less demand next week than previously expected

* That price decline came despite a drop in daily output and forecasts for hotter-than-normal weather.

* EIA report showed U.S. utilities added 41 bcf of gas into storage last week

Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -0.73% at 724.65 after investors were disappointed with modest stimulus measures announced by China to boost its economy. Chinese authorities unveiled measures to boost consumption of automobile and electronics items as part of a broader drive to shore up the country's faltering economy. Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 5.8% from last Friday, the exchange said. The global refined copper market showed a 65,000 metric tons deficit in May, compared with a 33,000 metric tons surplus in April, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said in its latest monthly bulletin. For the first 5 months of the year, the market was in a 287,000 metric tons surplus compared with a 74,000 metric tons deficit in the same period a year earlier, the ICSG said. World refined copper output in May was 2.32 million metric tons, while consumption was 2.38 million metric tons. When adjusted for changes in inventory in Chinese bonded warehouses, there was a 108,000 metric tons deficit in May compared with a 16,000 metric tons surplus in April, the ICSG said. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -7.9% to settle at 1876 while prices are down -5.3 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 720.6 and below same could see a test of 716.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 731.7, a move above could see prices testing 738.7.

Trading Ideas: 

* Copper trading range for the day is 716.5-738.7.

* Copper fell as investors were let down by China's modest stimulus to boost economy

* Copper market in 65,000 metric tons deficit in May 2023 – ICSG

* Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 5.8% from last Friday.

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -0.16% at 212.7 as rapid rebuild in LME inventory has kept the price under pressure. Zinc dropped as London Metal Exchange (LME) stocks of zinc have risen above 90,000 metric tons for the first time since May of 2022 thanks to a surge of deliveries into Singapore. China imported 45,329 metric tons of refined zinc in June, the highest monthly tally since May 2021. China's increased appetite for refined zinc is surprising given the country's smelters have been importing record amounts of mine concentrates and lifting their own metal production. Concentrate imports of 2.3 million tonnes in the first half of the year were up 25% on the first half of 2022, which broke all previous records. Chinese authorities are considering easing restrictions on home purchases in the nation's biggest cities. Chinese officials had previously pledged several support policies to help with economic growth, but those failed to underpin metals prices as the stimulus measures were targeted and limited in scale. BofA Global Research cut China's economic growth forecast for this year to 5.1%, from 5.7% previously, after the world's second-biggest economy grew at a frail pace in the second quarter. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -3.02% to settle at 2250 while prices are down -0.35 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 211.7 and below same could see a test of 210.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 214.2, a move above could see prices testing 215.7.

Trading Ideas: 

* Zinc trading range for the day is 210.7-215.7.

* Zinc fell as rapid rebuild in LME inventory has kept price under pressure.

* LME stocks of zinc have risen above 90,000 metric tons for the first time since May of 2022 thanks to a surge of deliveries into Singapore.

* China imported 45,329 metric tons of refined zinc in June, the highest monthly tally since May 2021.

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 0.25% at 196.6 on short covering after prices dropped as smelters started to resume production in the southwestern Yunnan province after curbs on local power usage were eased. China's aluminium imports in the first half of 2023 rose 10.7% from a year earlier, customs data showed, with domestic supplies constrained by power woes and demand expectations. The world's biggest aluminium producer and consumer imported 1.2 million metric tons of unwrought aluminium and products -including primary metal and unwrought, alloyed aluminium – from January to June, according to data from the General Administration of Customs. June imports totalled 211,235 metric tons, 12.8% higher than the 187,362 metric tons imported in the same month of 2022, also up from the 191,701 tonnes in May. Domestic production growth was limited this year, largely due to the hydro-power shortage in the southwestern Yunnan province. China's aluminium production rose 2.9% to 3.46 million metric tons in June versus a year earlier, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics. For the first half this year, China produced 20.16 million metric tons, up 3.4% from the same period last year, the data showed. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -9.13% to settle at 2209 while prices are up 0.5 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 195.9 and below same could see a test of 195 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 197.3, a move above could see prices testing 197.8.

Trading Ideas: 

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 195-197.8.

* Aluminium gains on short covering after dropped as production resume

* China's aluminium imports rise 10.7% y/y in H1

* China June aluminium output 3.46 mln metric tons

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.01% at 872.5 due to reports of improved crop progress. Yield is likely to increase due to favorable weather condition in major producing states. Moreover, reports of slack export of menthol will put pressure on prices. Rising menthol imports, as well as China's limited purchasing, will put pressure on pricing. Mentha exports during Apr-May 2023, dropped by 51.60 percent to 183.98 tonnes as compared to 380.12 tonnes exported during Apr-May 2022. In May 2023 around 86.13 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 97.85 tonnes in April 2023 showing a drop of 13.60%. In May 2023 around 86.13 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 209.90 tonnes in May 2022 showing a drop of 58.96%. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -9.5 Rupees to end at 1020.4 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -20.7% to settle at 410 while prices are down -0.1 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 869 and below same could see a test of 865.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 875.3, a move above could see prices testing 878.2.

Trading Ideas: 

* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 865.6-878.2.

* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -9.5 Rupees to end at 1020.4 Rupees per 360 kgs.

* Menthaoil dropped due to reports of improved crop progress.

* Yield is likely to increase due to favorable weather condition in major producing states.

* Moreover, reports of slack export of menthol will put pressure on prices.

Turmeric 

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 0.21% at 13180 driven by consistent demand from the domestic market and export. Moreover, farmers and stockists are holding onto their stocks in anticipation of price increases due to lower sowing acreage and also lower ending stocks, resulting in a supply shortage in the cash markets. The kharif sowing acreage is expected to decrease during the current season. In Maharashtra, the sowing area is projected to decline by 10%-20%. Similarly, in Tamil Nadu, the acreage is expected to decrease by 10%-15%. In Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, there is an anticipated decline of 18%-22% in the acreage compared to the previous season. Support also seen as the untimely rains that occurred in various places in the Andhra Pradesh damaged turmeric crops causing huge loss to the farmers. Turmeric exports during Apr-May 2023, rose by 27.55 percent at 39,418.73 tonnes as compared to 30,903.38 tonnes exported during Apr-May 2022. In May 2023 around 19,827.86 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 19,590.87 tonnes in April 2023 showing a rise of 1.21%. In May 2023 around 19,827.86 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 17,138.35 tonnes in May 2022 showing a rise of 15.69%. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 11882.8 Rupees gained 408.45 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 1.18% to settle at while prices are up 28 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 12896 and below same could see a test of 12614 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 13564, a move above could see prices testing 13950.

Trading Ideas: 

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 12614-13950.

* Turmeric prices rose driven by consistent demand and supply shortage

* Farmers and stockists are holding onto their stocks in anticipation of price increases due to lower sowing acreage

* In May 2023 around 19,827.86 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 19,590.87 tonnes in April 2023 showing a rise of 1.21%.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 11882.8 Rupees gained 408.45 Rupees.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled down by -0.22% at 60775 on profit booking after prices rose as arrivals in Gujarat and Rajasthan have decreased due to heavy rainfall. Farmers need assistance to bring their produce to the market. However, after the rains subside, cumin arrivals are expected to increase, potentially impacting market dynamics. Support also seen due to good export demand and expectations of lower stocks end of the current marketing year. Prices rose on crop worries grow due to unseasonal rains and hailstorms in Rajasthan, the major producing state. Cumin imports in May 2023 reached 210 metric tons, showing a substantial increase of 227.73% compared to the previous month's import volume of 64 metric tons. According to FISS forecasts, cumin demand is predicted to exceed 85 lakh bags this year, with a likely supply of 65 lakh bags. Jeera exports during Apr-May 2023, rose by 67.90 percent at 42,988.50 tonnes as compared to 25,603.35 tonnes exported during Apr-May 2022. In May 2023 around 25,903.63 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 17,084.87 tonnes in April 2023 showing a rise of 51.52%. In May 2023 around 25,903.63 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 14,894.62 tonnes in May 2022 showing a rise of 73.91%. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 978.15 Rupees to end at 61362.55 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -0.96% to settle at while prices are down -135 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 60000 and below same could see a test of 59225 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 61925, a move above could see prices testing 63075.

Trading Ideas: 

* Jeera trading range for the day is 59225-63075.

* Jeera dropped on profit booking after rise seen as arrivals decreased due to heavy rainfall.

* Traders are avoiding bulk buying in anticipation of rise in seasonal supply of jeera in Gujarat and Rajasthan.

* The market is expecting a lower yield and quality of jeera this season

* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 978.15 Rupees to end at 61362.55 Rupees per 100 kg.

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