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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.46% at 59461 as the U.S. housing market continues to struggle as fewer consumers than expected are buying new homes. New home sales dropped 2.5% last month and were at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 697,000 homes, the U.S. Commerce Department said. May sales were revised down to a rate of 715,000 units. Market consensus calls expected sales to decline to 726,000 units in June. However, for the year, new homes sales are up 23.8% compared to June 2022, which was when the Federal Reserve started its aggressive tightening cycle. China's net gold imports via Hong Kong fell by about 29% in June from the previous month, Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department data showed. Net imports into the world's top gold consumer stood at 34.648 metric tons in June, compared with 49.056 metric tons in May, as per the data. Total gold imports via Hong Kong were down 26% at 38.395 metric tons. Swiss gold exports fell by 23% in June from May due to lower shipments to China and India, Swiss customs data showed. Supplies to China and India fell by one third and one quarter respectively in June, the data showed. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -15.06% to settle at 4129 while prices are up 272 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 59243 and below same could see a test of 59024 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 59628, a move above could see prices testing 59794.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 59024-59794.
* Gold gains as U.S. new home sales drops 2.5% in June
* New home sales dropped 2.5% last month and were at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 697,000 homes.
* China's net gold imports via Hong Kong down 29% in June

Silver

Silver yesterday settled up by 0.74% at 75324 amid strong industrial demand and signs of tight supply. However strong jobless claims report renewed evidence of a tight labor market and added leeway for the Federal Reserve to remain hawkish for an extended period. Still, strong industrial demand and signs of tight supply limited the drawback and lifted silver to outperform gold since the start of the third quarter. Efforts to curb carbon emissions magnified the effect of evolving solar panel technologies that need higher conduction needs, underpinning sharp upgrades in forecasts of silver demand. Solar panel companies are expected to make up 14% of global silver consumption, compared to 5% in 2014, and driving an expected 4% increase in consumption this year. The figure compares to a slower 2% rise in output, flagging fresh supply deficit concerns. Building permits in the United States dropped by 3.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.441 million in June 2023, down from the seven-month high of 1.496 million recorded in May, revised data showed. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 3.47% to settle at 17770 while prices are up 551 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 74692 and below same could see a test of 74059 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 75816, a move above could see prices testing 76307.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 74059-76307.
* Silver gains amid strong industrial demand and signs of tight supply
* However strong jobless claims report renewed evidence of a tight labor market
* Solar panel companies are expected to make up 14% of global silver consumption

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -0.86% at 6473 amid profit taking and the lack of details on China's stimulus measures weighed on prices. U.S. crude stocks, gasoline and distillate inventories fell last week, the Energy Information Administration said. Crude inventories fell by 600,000 barrels in the last week to 456.8 million barrels, compared with expectations for a 2.3 million-barrel drop. Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub fell by 2.6 million barrels in the last week, EIA said. Refinery crude runs fell by 107,000 barrels per day in the last week, EIA said. U.S. gasoline stocks fell by 786,000 barrels in the week to 217.6 million barrels, the EIA said, compared with expectations for a 1.7 million-barrel drop. Net U.S. crude imports fell by 1.58 million barrels per day, EIA said. Data from the American Petroleum Institute showed U.S. crude stocks rose by about 1.3 million barrels in the week that ended on July 21, denting optimism about the world's economic recovery. The oil market remains supported by output cuts from OPEC+, with the group signaling readiness to take additional measures if needed. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -11.07% to settle at 9575 while prices are down -56 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6439 and below same could see a test of 6406 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6522, a move above could see prices testing 6572.

Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 6406-6572.
* Crude oil dropped amid profit taking and lack of details on China's stimulus
* U.S. crude, fuel stockpiles fell last week – EIA
* Crude inventories fell by 600,000 barrels in the last week to 456.8 million barrels

Natural Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -1.34% at 221.5 on forecasts of less demand this week and less hot weather over the next two weeks than previously expected. Even though the weather will be less hot than previously forecast, it will still be hotter than normal through mid-August, especially in Texas. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 101.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in July, from 101.0 bcfd in June. That compares with a monthly record of 101.8 bcfd in May. On a daily basis, however, output was on track to drop by about 2.4 bcfd over the past three days to a preliminary four-week low of 99.7 bcfd on Wednesday due mostly to declines in Ohio, West Virginia and Colorado. Analysts have noted that preliminary data is often revised later in the day. Meteorologists forecast the weather in the Lower 48 states will remain hotter than normal through at least Aug. 10. The number of rigs drilling for natural gas in the United States fell by 2 this week to 131, data from oil services firm Baker Hughes showed. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 26.66% to settle at 31725 while prices are down -3 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 217.7 and below same could see a test of 213.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 226.3, a move above could see prices testing 231.

Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 213.8-231.
* Natural gas slid on forecasts of less demand and less hot weather.
* Average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 101.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in July, from 101.0 bcfd in June.
* Meteorologists forecast the weather in the Lower 48 states will remain hotter than normal through at least Aug. 10.

Copper


Copper yesterday settled down by -0.3% at 738.3 as hopes for demand growth from top consumer China dimmed after Beijing's promise to support economic recovery did not roll out any specific measures. Copper inventories in LME-approved warehouses have climbed 12% over the last two weeks to 60,700 metric tons, and available – on-warrant – stocks jumped. Easing concerns about metal availability in the LME system have pushed the discount for cash copper over the three-month contract to $32.25 a metric ton, the biggest in two months, compared with a premium of $31 a month ago. Goldman Sachs upgraded its three-month target for copper by 20 per cent to $US9250 a tonne. That represents an upside of about 7 per cent from current levels. The world economy is expected to expand by 3% in 2023, which has been revised upwards from the April assessment's 2.8% growth, according to the latest update of the IMF's World Economic Outlook. However, it still remains weak by historical standards due to the impact of central bank policy rate increases aimed at combating inflation. The 2024 projection was unchanged at 3%. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -1.08% to settle at 4324 while prices are down -2.25 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 735.5 and below same could see a test of 732.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 740.9, a move above could see prices testing 743.6.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 732.8-743.6.
* Copper drop due to caution ahead of Fed decision and a lack of Chinese stimulus
* LME Copper inventories have climbed 12% over the last two weeks to 60,700 metric tons.
* Goldman Sachs upgraded its three-month target for copper by 20% to $US9250 a tonne.

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -0.3% at 219 as global refined zinc supply is expected to increase by 1.9%, considering a low base year and as energy costs in Europe ease, while power curbs in China limit zinc smelter production. However, downside seen limited amid hopes of a recovery in Chinese demand. Beijing has pledged to provide further support to boost growth with a focus on expanding domestic demand, while it has also unveiled measures to support private investment and develop underdeveloped areas in megacities. Looking ahead, S&P Global predicts a modest 1.4% growth in global refined zinc demand for 2023, as both the US and Europe continue to grapple with inflation and tight monetary policies. The global zinc market surplus slipped to 53,000 metric tons in May, down from 64,000 tons a month earlier, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. During the first five months of 2023, ILZSG data showed a surplus of 267,000 metric tons, versus a surplus of 189,000 tons in the same period of 2022. China's top leaders signalled there would be more to come for the property sector that consumes a vast amount of metals. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 0.27% to settle at 3753 while prices are down -0.65 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 217.6 and below same could see a test of 216.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 220.6, a move above could see prices testing 222.1.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 216.1-222.1.
* Zinc dropped as Global refined zinc supply is expected to increase by 1.9%.
* However, downside seen limited amid hopes of a recovery in Chinese demand.
* Global zinc market surplus falls to 53,000 metric tons in May – ILZSG

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.58% at 198.55 as global primary aluminium output rose by 1.8% year-on-year to 34.212 million metric tons in the first half of 2023 mainly due to higher production in China, data from the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) showed. The data indicates that energy-intensive production of the metal, used in transportation, construction and packaging, remains subdued in Europe after last year's energy crisis and is probably under pressure in sanctions-hit Russia. China's estimated production rose by 2.8% to 20.250 million metric tons in January-June, the IAI said. Aluminium output in Western and Central Europe which was hit by a jump in energy prices after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022 is yet to recover, the region produced 1.345 million metric tons, down 9.2%. The world economy is expected to expand by 3% in 2023, which has been revised upwards from the April assessment's 2.8% growth, according to the latest update of the IMF's World Economic Outlook. However, it still remains weak by historical standards due to the impact of central bank policy rate increases aimed at combating inflation. The 2024 projection was unchanged at 3%. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 7.87% to settle at 3729 while prices are down -1.15 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 197.8 and below same could see a test of 197.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 199.9, a move above could see prices testing 201.3.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 197.1-201.3.
* Aluminium dropped as global primary aluminium output rose by 1.8% year-on-year
* However, downside seen limited amid pledges from Chinese leaders to shore up economic growth.
* Higher production in China drove global aluminium output up 1.8% in H1

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.82% at 892.7 on low level buying after prices dropped amid rise in supplies of new crop. Supplies have increased in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar as harvesting activities has picked up. Production prospects have improved with rising yield supported by favorable weather condition. Moreover, reports of slack export of menthol will put pressure on prices. Rising menthol imports, as well as China's limited purchasing, will put pressure on pricing. Mentha exports during Apr-May 2023, dropped by 51.60 percent to 183.98 tonnes as compared to 380.12 tonnes exported during Apr-May 2022. In May 2023 around 86.13 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 97.85 tonnes in April 2023 showing a drop of 13.60%. In May 2023 around 86.13 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 209.90 tonnes in May 2022 showing a drop of 58.96%. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -4.6 Rupees to end at 1027.1 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 3.16% to settle at 915 while prices are up 7.3 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 888.8 and below same could see a test of 884.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 895.3, a move above could see prices testing 897.9.

Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 884.9-897.9.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -4.6 Rupees to end at 1027.1 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Menthaoil gained on low level buying after prices dropped amid rise in supplies of new crop.
* Supplies have increased in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar as harvesting activities has picked up.
* Production prospects have improved with rising yield supported by favorable weather condition.

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 2.69% at 13950 driven by consistent demand from the domestic market and export. Moreover, farmers and stockists are holding onto their stocks in anticipation of price increases due to lower sowing acreage and also lower ending stocks, resulting in a supply shortage in the cash markets. The kharif sowing acreage is expected to decrease during the current season. In Maharashtra, the sowing area is projected to decline by 10%-20%. Similarly, in Tamil Nadu, the acreage is expected to decrease by 10%-15%. In Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, there is an anticipated decline of 18%-22% in the acreage compared to the previous season. Support also seen as the untimely rains that occurred in various places in the Andhra Pradesh damaged turmeric crops causing huge loss to the farmers. Turmeric exports during Apr-May 2023, rose by 27.55 percent at 39,418.73 tonnes as compared to 30,903.38 tonnes exported during Apr-May 2022. In May 2023 around 19,827.86 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 19,590.87 tonnes in April 2023 showing a rise of 1.21%. In May 2023 around 19,827.86 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 17,138.35 tonnes in May 2022 showing a rise of 15.69%. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 12391.9 Rupees gained 539.5 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -7.63% to settle at while prices are up 366 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 13696 and below same could see a test of 13444 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 14224, a move above could see prices testing 14500.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 13444-14500.
* Turmeric prices rose driven by consistent demand and supply shortage
* Farmers and stockists are holding onto their stocks in anticipation of price increases due to lower sowing acreage
* In May 2023 around 19,827.86 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 19,590.87 tonnes in April 2023 showing a rise of 1.21%.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 12391.9 Rupees gained 539.5 Rupees.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled down by -1.67% at 58920 on profit booking after prices rose as arrivals in Gujarat and Rajasthan have decreased due to heavy rainfall. Farmers need assistance to bring their produce to the market. However, after the rains subside, cumin arrivals are expected to increase, potentially impacting market dynamics. Support also seen due to good export demand and expectations of lower stocks end of the current marketing year. Prices rose on crop worries grow due to unseasonal rains and hailstorms in Rajasthan, the major producing state. Cumin imports in May 2023 reached 210 metric tons, showing a substantial increase of 227.73% compared to the previous month's import volume of 64 metric tons. According to FISS forecasts, cumin demand is predicted to exceed 85 lakh bags this year, with a likely supply of 65 lakh bags. Jeera exports during Apr-May 2023, rose by 67.90 percent at 42,988.50 tonnes as compared to 25,603.35 tonnes exported during Apr-May 2022. In May 2023 around 25,903.63 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 17,084.87 tonnes in April 2023 showing a rise of 51.52%. In May 2023 around 25,903.63 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 14,894.62 tonnes in May 2022 showing a rise of 73.91%. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -600.3 Rupees to end at 60762.25 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -4.01% to settle at while prices are down -1000 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 58060 and below same could see a test of 57200 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 59965, a move above could see prices testing 61010.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 57200-61010.
* Jeera dropped on profit booking after rise seen as arrivals decreased due to heavy rainfall.
* Traders are avoiding bulk buying in anticipation of rise in seasonal supply of jeera in Gujarat and Rajasthan.
* The market is expecting a lower yield and quality of jeera this season
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -600.3 Rupees to end at 60762.25 Rupees per 100 kg.

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