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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.19% at 58307 as the U.S. manufacturing sector falls deeper into contraction territory and activity in the service sector remains relatively flat. The S&P Global Flash U.S. manufacturing PMI data fell sharply to a reading of 46.3, down from May's reading of 48.4. The physical gold market in India flipped to a premium as a pullback in domestic prices boosted demand, while buying was lacklustre in other top Asian hubs. Dealers in India were charging a premium of up to $1.5 an ounce over official domestic prices up from the last week's discount of $2. In top consumer China, gold was sold at anywhere between $1 discounts and $5 premiums to global spot prices, versus $1 discounts-$6.50 premiums last week. Switzerland's gold shipments rose last month after falling to 10-month lows in April, primarily driven by renewed demand from India, according to Swiss customs data. Swiss gold exports rose to 152,193 kg in May from April's 113,375 kg. And while China's demand remained low, India's numbers rebounded last month. India imported 31,199 kg of gold from Switzerland in May, up from 7,024 kg in April, marking the highest level since September 2022. Meanwhile, mainland China's Swiss gold imports fell to 45,969 kg from the previous month's 52,734 kg. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -4.18% to settle at 12581 while prices are up 111 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 58022 and below same could see a test of 57737 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 58666, a move above could see prices testing 59025.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 57737-59025.
* Gold gains as US Manufacturing PMI falls to six-month low
* U.S. manufacturing PMI data fell sharply to a reading of 46.3, down from May's reading of 48.4
* Swiss gold exports rebound from 10-month lows in May as India demand wakes up

Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -0.33% at 68083 in the wake of hawkish comments from global central banks. Central banks in Australia and Canada raised interest rates earlier this month and central banks in the U.K., Switzerland, Norway, and Turkey raised interest rates on Thursday, while the Federal Reserve has telegraphed two more interest-rate hikes later this year. Business activity growth in Europe slowed in June while U.K. retail sales logged an unexpected growth in May. British consumer confidence rose for the fifth consecutive month in June to hit a 17-month high, a closely watched survey revealed. Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic said the benchmark policy rate should stay unchanged for the rest of this year and that he did not envision a rate cut until at least late 2024. "My baseline is that we should stay at this level for the rest of the year," Bostic said. "I don't have a rate cut in my baseline forecast for the most part of 2024." The latest PMI figures showed that the US manufacturing sector contracted faster than expected in June, while services growth slowed. In the meantime, initial jobless claims have persistently surpassed market forecasts and stand at 2021 highs. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -13.82% to settle at 11127 while prices are down -225 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 67433 and below same could see a test of 66782 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 68817, a move above could see prices testing 69550.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 66782-69550.
* Silver dropped amid hawkish comments from central banks.
* U.S. Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated plans to continue raising interest rates.
* Business activity growth in Europe slowed in June while U.K. retail sales logged an unexpected growth in May

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -0.53% at 5675 on worries that high inflation and rising interest rates would weigh on global growth. Global growth concerns weighed on oil prices following hawkish comments and rate actions from a slew of central banks. Business activity growth in Europe slowed in June, adding to the gloom. Crude inventories in the U.S. fell by 3.8 million barrels last week, as against forecasts for a rise of 300,000 barrels. Gasoline stocks increased by about 480,000 barrels last week, nearly five times the expected rise while distillate stockpiles rose by about 430,000 barrels in the week, as against an expected increase of 700,000 barrels, the EIA data revealed. U.S. crude oil output fell by 200,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 12.2 million bpd last week, the biggest decline since Sept. 2021, data from the Energy Information Administration showed. Crude output dropped by 1.5 million bpd in the week ended Sept. 3, 2021, when Hurricane Ida hit the U.S. Gulf Coast. That was the biggest decline in EIA records, which go back to 1983. U.S. crude oil stocks in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell by 1.7 million barrels in the latest week to 350 million barrels, their lowest since Aug. 1983, according to EIA data. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 4.2% to settle at 17254 while prices are down -30 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 5584 and below same could see a test of 5493 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5728, a move above could see prices testing 5781.

Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 5493-5781.
* Crude oil dropped as global growth worries mount
* Global growth concerns weighed on oil prices following hawkish comments and rate actions from a slew of central banks.
* Business activity growth in Europe slowed in June, adding to the gloom.

Natural Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 1.83% at 217.4 on a drop in U.S. output in recent weeks and forecasts for the weather to remain hot through early July, especially in Texas. That price increase came despite forecasts for less demand next week than previously expected due in part to a decline in the amount of gas flowing to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants and a drop in European gas prices. Average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states fell from a record 102.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in May to 101.5 bcfd so far in June due in part to ongoing pipeline maintenance in the Haynesville shale in Arkansas, Louisiana and Texas, and other basins. Meteorologists forecast the weather in the Lower 48 states would turn mostly hotter than normal from June 24-July 8. With hot weather coming, Refinitiv forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 94.7 bcfd this week to 97.8 bcfd next week and 101.5 bcfd in two weeks. The forecast for next week was lower than Refinitiv's outlook on Thursday. U.S. exports to Mexico rose to an average of 6.6 bcfd so far in June from 6.2 bcfd in May. That compares with a monthly record high of 6.7 bcfd in June 2021. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -29.53% to settle at 6526 while prices are up 3.9 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 210 and below same could see a test of 202.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 221.9, a move above could see prices testing 226.4.

Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 202.6-226.4.
* Natural gas jumped on a drop in U.S. output and forecasts for the hot weather
* Price decline came despite lower U.S. output in recent weeks and forecasts for the weather to remain hot through early July
* Average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states fell from a record 102.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in May to 101.5 bcfd so far in June


Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -1.67% at 718.85 as concerns over global economic growth after interest rate hikes offset support from declining stocks at the London Metal Exchange (LME). The global refined copper market had a surplus of 42,000 tonnes in April, compared with a 3,000-tonne surplus the previous month, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said in its latest monthly bulletin. World refined copper output was 2.307 million tonnes and consumption was 2.265 million tonnes, the ICSG said. For the first four months of the year, the market was in a 384,000-tonne surplus compared with a 43,000-tonne deficit in the same period a year earlier, the ICSG said. Preliminary official Chinese data showed refined production rose 15% and apparent demand in China grew by 7% in the first four months of 2023, while refined usage in the rest of the world grew by 3%, the ICSG added. Copper available to the market in London Metal Exchange (LME)approved warehouses fell to the lowest level since October 2021 after large amounts of inventory were earmarked to leave the LME system, data from the exchange showed. Total stocks of copper in LME warehouses stand at 80,400 metric tons. Of that 62.5% or 50,275 metric tons has been set aside or cancelled for delivering out over coming weeks. This is compared with 42% previously. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 22.36% to settle at 5079 while prices are down -12.2 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 713.7 and below same could see a test of 708.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 727.5, a move above could see prices testing 736.2.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 708.6-736.2.
* Copper fell amid concerns over global economic growth after interest rate hikes
* Chinese data showed refined production rose 15% and apparent demand in China grew by 7% in the first four months of 2023
* Available LME copper stocks fall to the lowest since 2021

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -1.52% at 213.9 amid an increase in smelter supply and as concerns that China's demand would recover more slowly than expected persisted. Global zinc market surplus fell to 12,500 metric tons in April, down from 65,000 tons a month earlier, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. During the first four months of 2023, ILZSG data showed a surplus of 137,000 metric tons, versus a surplus of 156,000 metric tons in the same period of 2022. Zinc inventories in London Metal Exchange-registered warehouses have nearly doubled from the prior week to a one-year peak after a shipment arrived in Malaysia. While Some European smelter capacity remains offline, China's producers are lifting production after soaking up surplus concentrates. Swedish producer Boliden has recently decided to halt operations at its Irish facilities, including the Tara Zinc mine, as the mine's cash flow turned negative, but it is unlikely to have much immediate impact on overall output. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs Group Inc., after previously projecting a deficit, has shifted to a bearish outlook on zinc, anticipating an oversupply this year and predicting a substantial 659,000-ton surplus in 2025. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 5.82% to settle at 2819 while prices are down -3.3 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 212.8 and below same could see a test of 211.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 215.8, a move above could see prices testing 217.5.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 211.5-217.5.
* Zinc dropped amid an increase in smelter supply.
* Global zinc market surplus fell to 12,500 metric tons in April
* Zinc inventories in London Metal Exchange-registered warehouses have nearly doubled from the prior week to a one-year peak


Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -1.32% at 197.95 weighed down by a lack of meaningful economic stimulus that could support growth in demand for metals. China's aluminium imports in May climbed 1.8% from a year earlier but arrivals were lower than the prior month amid weak industrial demand. Water levels in Yunnan Province has increased, and local smelters may enter the stage of resumption of production in the near future. Investor sentiment was boosted by U.S. economic data showing an unexpected rise in May retail sales as consumers stepped up purchases of motor vehicles and building materials, which could help to stave off a recession in the near term. Hopes have grown that China would unveil more measures to shore up its shaky post-pandemic recovery after new home prices rose at a slower pace in May and property investment slumped at the steepest pace in more than two decades. China's primary aluminium output in May rose only slightly from a year earlier, data showed, as production in most regions remained steady while output growth was capped by extended power curbs in the southwestern Yunnan province. The world's top aluminium producer churned out 3.42 million metric tons of primary aluminium last month, up 1.1% from the same period a year ago. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 24.07% to settle at 3484 while prices are down -2.65 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 196.5 and below same could see a test of 195 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 200.1, a move above could see prices testing 202.2.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 195-202.2.
* Aluminium dropped weighed down by a lack of meaningful economic stimulus
* China's aluminium imports in May climbed 1.8% from a year earlier
* China's primary aluminium output in May rose only slightly from a year earlier, data showed.

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.63% at 906.6 on low level buying after prices dropped on better sowing prospects. Reports of increased acreages and sluggish export of menthol will weigh on prices. Rising menthol imports, as well as China's limited purchasing, will put pressure on pricing. Mentha exports during Apr 2023, dropped by 42.52 percent to 97.85 tonnes as compared to 170.22 tonnes exported during Apr 2022. In April 2023 around 97.85 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 202.95 tonnes in March 2023 showing a drop of 51.78%. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 13 Rupees to end at 1036.2 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 14.2% to settle at 740 while prices are up 5.7 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 899.1 and below same could see a test of 891.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 916, a move above could see prices testing 925.4.

Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 891.6-925.4.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 13 Rupees to end at 1036.2 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil gains on low level buying after prices dropped on better sowing prospects
* Reports of increased acreages and sluggish export of menthol will weigh on prices.
* Rising menthol imports, as well as China's limited purchasing, will put pressure on pricing.

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -1.15% at 9316 on profit booking after prices gained as the kharif sowing acreage is expected to decrease during the current season. In Maharashtra, the sowing area is projected to decline by 10%-20%. Similarly, in Tamil Nadu, the acreage is expected to decrease by 10%-15%. In Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, there is an anticipated decline of 18%-22% in the acreage compared to the previous season. Crop arrivals for the week ending June 10, 2023, were significantly lower at 3,731.85 MT, down 55% from the previous week. Support also seen as the untimely rains that occurred in various places in the Andhra Pradesh damaged turmeric crops causing huge loss to the farmers. Turmeric exports during Apr 2023, rose by 42.32 percent at 19,590.87 tonnes as compared to 13,765.03 tonnes exported during Apr 2022. In April 2023 around 19,590.87 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 18,810.47 tonnes in March 2023 showing a rise of 4.15%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8258.9 Rupees dropped -76.75 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -3.02% to settle at while prices are down -108 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 9112 and below same could see a test of 8910 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 9514, a move above could see prices testing 9714.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 8910-9714.
* Turmeric dropped on profit booking after prices gained as the kharif sowing acreage is expected to decrease
* Support also seen as the untimely rains that occurred in various places in the Andhra Pradesh damaged turmeric crops.
* Supplies in Maharashtra and Telangana are likely to increase as farmers are getting fair realization on their produce.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8258.9 Rupees dropped -76.75 Rupees.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 0.79% at 54940 due to good export demand and expectations of lower stocks end of the current marketing year. Prices rose on crop worries grow due to unseasonal rains and hailstorms in Rajasthan, the major producing state. The market is expecting a lower yield and quality of jeera this season, which has boosted the demand from domestic and export buyers. The jeera growing regions in southern and north-western parts of Rajasthan in the districts of Alwar, Jaisalmer, Jaipur, Bikaner, Bhilwara, and Barmer have received a fresh spell of unseasonal rains in the past week, triggering concerns on the crop condition. Marginal traders are avoiding bulk buying in anticipation of rise in seasonal supply of jeera in Gujarat and Rajasthan. Below normal supplies in the market supported firmness in prices. About 508 tonnes of jeera arrived on 6th June at major APMC mandis across India as compared to 653 tonnes of prior day. Tighter carryover stocks and lower production will push up the prices further. According to FISS forecasts, cumin demand is predicted to exceed 85 lakh bags this year, with a likely supply of 65 lakh bags. One bag holds 55kg. This will result in a demand-supply imbalance. Currently, at least 70% of the crop in Rajasthan and around 30% in Gujarat have yet to be harvested. Because of the rain in both states, the total yield will be reduced. The cumin crop was destroyed by two bouts of unseasonal rainfall during the harvest season. In comparison to the planned arrival of 70 lakh bags, the stock will be reduced to 60-65 lakh bags, with a carry-forward stock of 5 lakh bags from last year. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -428.65 Rupees to end at 54776.4 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -3.45% to settle at while prices are up 430 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 53780 and below same could see a test of 52615 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 55855, a move above could see prices testing 56765.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 52615-56765.
* Jeera rose due to good export demand and expectations of lower stocks
* Traders are avoiding bulk buying in anticipation of rise in seasonal supply of jeera in Gujarat and Rajasthan.
* The market is expecting a lower yield and quality of jeera this season
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -428.65 Rupees to end at 54776.4 Rupees per 100 kg.

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