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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.43% at 60261 as equities tumbled with banking jitters returning to the fore after U.S. lender First Republic Bank said its deposits tumbled more than $100 billion last quarter and that it was exploring options such as restructuring its balance sheet. The Fed is still anticipated to raise rates by another 25 basis points during its meeting next week, but Fed Fund futures prices showed markets are pricing in an over 60% chance of a mid-year pause in the body's tightening cycle. China's gold production jumped 6.9% in the first quarter of 2023 recovering to pre-pandemic levels, partly spurred by a jump in demand for gold and jewellery as investors sought safe havens away from jittery financial markets. China's mined gold output rose 1.9% to 84.97 tonnes in the January-March quarter from the same period a year earlier, as capacity returned to pre-COVID-19 levels, with 78% of that from gold mines and the rest from non-ferrous by-products, the China Gold Association said. China's net gold imports via Hong Kong fell by about 26.7% in March from the previous month, Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department data showed. Net imports into the world's top gold consumer stood at 47.527 tonnes in March, compared with 64.878 tonnes in February, the data showed. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 0.35% to settle at 15532 while prices are up 260 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 59874 and below same could see a test of 59486 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 60485, a move above could see prices testing 60708.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 59486-60708.
* Gold gains as safe-haven as equities tumbled with banking jitters returning
* China's gold output recovers to pre – pandemic level as demand jumps
* China's net gold imports via Hong Kong fall in March

Silver
Silver yesterday settled down by -0.98% at 74263 as investors reassessed the outlook for the US economy and Federal Reserve monetary policy. The market is sifting through a raft of corporate earnings and economic data to determine whether the US economy could be headed for a recession. Still, the Fed is widely expected to deliver another 25 basis point interest rate hike in May, though traders will be monitoring guidance on the future rate path. The European Central Bank is also set to raise rates further next month, but the market remains split on whether it would be a quarter- or half-percentage point increase. Sales of new single-family houses in the US unexpectedly jumped 9.3% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annualised rate of 683K in March of 2023, the highest in a year, and beating forecasts of 630K. Building permits in the United States were revised higher to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 1.43 million in March of 2023, compared to initial estimates of 1.413 million, but continued to point to subdued housing demand amid higher interest rates and rising consumer prices. The Confederation of British Industry survey’s total order book balance held at -20 in April of 2023, unchanged from the two-year low hit in the previous month and in line with market expectations. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -21.9% to settle at 6931 while prices are down -733 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 73376 and below same could see a test of 72488 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 75076, a move above could see prices testing 75888.

Trading Ideas:
 Silver trading range for the day is 72488-75888.
* Silver dropped as investors reassessed the outlook for the US economy and Federal Reserve monetary policy.
* Sales of new single-family houses in the US unexpectedly jumped 9.3% month-over-month.
* US Building permits were revised higher to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 1.43 million in March of 2023

Crude oil
Crude oil yesterday settled down by -2.34% at 6335 as uncertainty about the global economic outlook and a firmer dollar countered investor optimism about demand in China and expectations of a drop in U.S. crude inventories. The dollar rose as worries about corporate earnings and the global economic outlook deepened. However downside seen limited amid investor optimism that holiday travel in China would boost fuel demand and by expectations of a drop in U.S. crude inventories. Iraq's northern oil exports have shown little sign of an imminent restart after a month-long standstill. Members of the OPEC+ producer group, meanwhile, are preparing for the start of voluntary cuts in May. U.S. shale crude oil production in the seven biggest shale basins is expected to rise in May to the highest on record, data from the Energy Information Administration showed. Oil output is set to rise 49,000 barrels per day to 9.33 million bpd, the EIA said. Production in the Permian is due to rise to 5.69 million bpd, the highest on record. Crude output in the Permian basin in Texas and New Mexico, the biggest U.S. shale oil basin, is expected to rise to 5.69 million bpd. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 26.77% to settle at 6350 while prices are down -152 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6253 and below same could see a test of 6172 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6454, a move above could see prices testing 6574.

Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 6172-6574.
* Crude oil dropped amid uncertainty about the global economic outlook
* China demand hopes offer support
* Market also underpinned by Iraqi export halt and OPEC+ cuts

Nat.Gas
Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -1.42% at 201.4 on forecasts for milder weather and lower heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. Prices declined even though the amount of gas flowing to U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants remained on track to hit a record high for a second month in April after Freeport LNG's export plant in Texas exited an eight-month outage in February. Withdrawals of natural gas from U.S. underground storage facilities during the 2022–23 heating season were the lowest since the 2015–16 season, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said. Continued growth in production and reduced space heating consumption due to relatively mild winter temperatures accounted for less withdrawal despite increased use in electric generation, the EIA said in a release. The agency added that natural gas withdrawals from storage facilities stood at 1,707 billion cubic feet (bcf) during the 2022–23 heating season after subtracting occasional injections. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants rose to 14.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in April, up from a record 13.2 bcfd in March. Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 100.35 bcfd so far in April, up from 99.74 bcfd in March. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 31.14% to settle at 25413 while prices are down -2.9 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 197.5 and below same could see a test of 193.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 204.2, a move above could see prices testing 206.9.

Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 193.5-206.9.
* Natural gas fell on forecasts for milder weather and lower heating demand
* Prices declined even though the amount of gas flowing to LNG export plants remained on track to hit a record high
* US natgas withdrawals dip to lowest in seven years this winter – EIA

Copper
Copper yesterday settled down by -2.25% at 740.85 on concerns that rising interest rates in the United States could eventually lead to lesser demand for metals. Strong business activities in the U.S. and the Euro zone reinforced bets of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates, as markets cautiously entered a week packed with economic data and central bank meetings. Meanwhile, an uneven economic recovery in China also weighed on demand for metals in the world's biggest metals consumer. China's refined copper production in March jumped 9% year-on-year to a record high of 1.05 million tonnes, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed. On a daily basis, average copper output stood at 34,000 tonnes over the March period, according to calculations based on the official data. Glencore reported a 5% fall in its copper production for the first quarter, owing to lower grades due to phasing of a pit at Collahuasi and delays associated with adverse weather conditions at Antamina. Copper prices, often seen as an economic bellwether, were weighed down by latest U.S. data showing a loss of labor market momentum, and slumping retail sales and manufacturing activity. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 16.61% to settle at 5574 while prices are down -17.05 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 733.4 and below same could see a test of 725.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 754, a move above could see prices testing 767.1.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 725.9-767.1.
* Copper dropped on worries over higher interest rates in US
* Strong business activities in the U.S. and the Euro zone reinforced bets of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates
* Yangshan copper premium fell to $23 a tonne, its lowest since March 10.

Zinc
Zinc yesterday settled down by -2.36% at 233.35 as China's slow recovery and recession fears prompted by higher interest rates weighed on demand prospects. Top consumer China imported 12,785 mt of refined zinc in March, down 40.10% on the year. On the supply side, recent data showed that the country's refined zinc output increased 55,300 mt or 11.03% MoM and 12.26% YoY to 556,800 mt in March, as expected. Meanwhile, LME zinc inventories remained close to levels not seen since 1989. Last year's shutdowns of some European zinc smelters due to soaring power prices became a key driver behind low LME stocks. The smelter bottleneck was severe enough to generate a global supply shortfall of more than 300,000 tonnes, according to ILZSG. The Bank of China Research Institute released the Economic and Financial Outlook Report for the Second Quarter of 2023 on April 3. According to the report, in the first quarter of 2023, as the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic subsided, and the economic stabilisation policies were deployed, China’s economy continued to recover. China’s GDP was expected to grow by about 4.1% in the first quarter. Zinc ingot stocks in the Shanghai bonded zone were 2,000 mt, flat compared to April 14. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 9.53% to settle at 4149 while prices are down -5.65 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 230.6 and below same could see a test of 227.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 238, a move above could see prices testing 242.5.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 227.7-242.5.
* Zinc dropped amid China's slow recovery and recession fears
* Data showed that the country's refined zinc output increased 55,300 mt or 11.03% MoM
* China imported 12,785 mt of refined zinc in March, down 40.10% on the year.

Aluminium
Aluminium yesterday settled down by -1.8% at 207.5 as U.S. economic data raised fears about a recession that could darken the demand outlook for the metal. China's consumer demand recovery needs time to pick up due to the "scarring effect" of COVID-19 and the central bank will consolidate its financing support for the real economy, officials from the People's Bank of China (PBOC) said. The PBOC expects consumer price inflation to pick up later this year but there is no basis for long term deflation or inflation in the country, Zou Lan, head of the monetary policy department at PBOC, said at a news conference in Beijing. Global primary aluminium output rose 0.5% year on year in March to 5.772 million tonnes, data from the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) showed. Some Japanese aluminium buyers have agreed to pay global producers premiums in the April-June quarter of 2023 that are as much as 53% higher than the previous quarter, reflecting higher overseas prices. The Japanese buyers will pay premiums of between $125-$130 per tonne for shipments in April to June. Severe power shortages in China's southwestern Yunnan province are likely to cut aluminium production in the country's fourth-largest producing province. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 13.13% to settle at 2956 while prices are down -3.8 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 205.7 and below same could see a test of 203.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 210.3, a move above could see prices testing 213.1.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 203.9-213.1.
* Aluminium dropped as U.S. economic data raised fears about a recession.
* China's consumer demand recovery needs time to pick up due to the "scarring effect" of COVID-19
* The central bank will consolidate its financing support for the real economy, officials from the PBOC said

Mentha oil
Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.32% at 973.1 as demand was poor due to recession fears and global banking turmoil. The collapse of California’s Silicon Valley Bank and troubles at Swiss lender Credit Suisse have shaken the financial markets and dampened the outlook for oil consumption. Market participants expect prices to remain under pressure until demand recovers and market sentiment improves. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 5 Rupees to end at 1148.5 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 1.44% to settle at 705 while prices are down -3.1 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 967.2 and below same could see a test of 961.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 981.9, a move above could see prices testing 990.7.

Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 961.3-990.7.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 5 Rupees to end at 1148.5 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil prices dropped as demand was poor due to recession fears
* Mentha exports during Apr-Feb 2023, dropped by 10.67 percent to 2,227.55 tonnes
* In February 2023 around 210.78 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 157.90 tonnes in February 2022 showing a rise of 33.49%.

Turmeric
Turmeric yesterday settled down by -0.85% at 6542 on muted demand against the adequate supplies in the local market. Millers are stockists are in wait and watch mood in wake of rising arrivals at major trading centers. Arrivals of new crop has improved as about 7-8 lakh bags touched the Nizamabad market so far wherein about 7 lakh bags were reported in Sangli. Market is running with huge stocks and stockists are trying to release their stocks on every rise in prices. Turmeric exports during Apr-Feb 2023, rose by 10.42 percent at 151,298.89 tonnes as compared to 137,017.23 tonnes exported during Apr- Feb 2022. In February 2023 around 14,806.30 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 12,484.25 tonnes in January 2023 showing a rise of 18.60%. In February 2023 around 14,806.30 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 10,358.22 tonnes in February 2022 showing a rise of 42.94%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6721.5 Rupees dropped -6 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -2.29% to settle at 13650 while prices are down -56 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 6506 and below same could see a test of 6470 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6582, a move above could see prices testing 6622.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 6470-6622.
* Turmeric prices remained under pressure on muted demand against the adequate supplies.
* The crop is good this season despite some projection of a lower crop.
* Turmeric exports during Apr-Jan 2023, rose by 7.76 percent at 1,36,492.59 tonnes
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6721.5 Rupees dropped -6 Rupees.

Jeera
Jeera yesterday settled down by -1.24% at 39945 on profit booking after prices rose on crop worries grow due to unseasonal rains and hailstorms in Rajasthan, the major producing state. The market is expecting a lower yield and quality of jeera this season, which has boosted the demand from domestic and export buyers. The jeera growing regions in southern and north-western parts of Rajasthan in the districts of Alwar, Jaisalmer, Jaipur, Bikaner, Bhilwara, and Barmer have received a fresh spell of unseasonal rains in the past week, triggering concerns on the crop condition. For the jeera crop, moist or cloudy weather impacts the quality of the seed, which often turns blackish, indicating spoilage. According to FISS forecasts, cumin demand is predicted to exceed 85 lakh bags this year, with a likely supply of 65 lakh bags. One bag holds 55kg. This will result in a demand-supply imbalance. Currently, at least 70% of the crop in Rajasthan and around 30% in Gujarat have yet to be harvested. Because of the rain in both states, the total yield will be reduced. The cumin crop was destroyed by two bouts of unseasonal rainfall during the harvest season. In comparison to the planned arrival of 70 lakh bags, the stock will be reduced to 60-65 lakh bags, with a carry-forward stock of 5 lakh bags from last year. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -450.55 Rupees to end at 40375.4 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -5.98% to settle at 7506 while prices are down -500 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 39120 and below same could see a test of 38295 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 40480, a move above could see prices testing 41015.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 38295-41015.
* Jeera dropped on profit booking after prices rose on crop worries grow due to unseasonal rains and hailstorms.
* The market is expecting a lower yield and quality of jeera this season, which has boosted the demand from domestic and export buyers.
* Cumin demand is predicted to exceed 85 lakh bags this year, with a likely supply of 65 lakh bags.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -450.55 Rupees to end at 40375.4 Rupees per 100 kg

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