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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.63% at 56852 as prospects of more interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve dented bullion's appeal. The dollar’s weakness was seen across the board, with some of the most pronounced selling activity against risk-sensitive currencies such as the Australian and New Zealand dollars. The dollar also depreciated against the euro after data showed euro zone business activity returned to modest growth in January. Dollar declined after somewhat bearish remarks by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, reducing the pricing for a rate hike in March. Powell noted that the US payrolls report was way better than expected for January. He made clear the message of the last Fed policy meeting is that inflation has indeed slowed down but the road remains long. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits increased more than expected last week, but remained at levels consistent with a tight labor market. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 13,000 to a seasonally adjusted 196,000 for the week ended Feb. 4, the Labor Department said. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -3.64% to settle at 15818 while prices are down -363 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 56595 and below same could see a test of 56338 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 57264, a move above could see prices testing 57676.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 56338-57676.
* Gold dropped as prospects of more interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve dented bullion's appeal.
* However, somewhat bearish remarks by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, reducing the pricing for a rate hike in March.
* Powell noted that the US payrolls report was way better than expected for January.


Silver
Silver yesterday settled down by -0.89% at 67030 as investors shrugged off hawkish remarks on interest rates path from several Fed policymakers. Several Federal Reserve policymakers called for more interest rate hikes to combat high inflation. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said the slowdown in wage growth was "not enough", and the Fed would need to keep a tight stance on monetary policy for some time. Similar messages were delivered by three other officials at separate events. The remarks followed Fed Chair Powell's less hawkish-than-expected speech on Tuesday. Elsewhere, recession concerns could pressure prices, as investors worry about low demand for the metal as an industrial input for goods with high electricity conduction needs, which is reflected in its sharp underperformance to gold in January. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits increased more than expected last week, but remained at levels consistent with a tight labor market. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 13,000 to a seasonally adjusted 196,000 for the week ended Feb. 4, the Labor Department said. Claims have remained low despite high-profile layoffs in the technology industry as well as the interest rate-sensitive finance and housing sectors. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -0.55% to settle at 14266 while prices are down -603 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 66563 and below same could see a test of 66095 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 67716, a move above could see prices testing 68401.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 66095-68401.
* Silver dropped as data showed first-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits rebounded by slightly more than expected
* The dollar is losing traction amid optimism about China's economic growth rebounding from reopening drive.
* Fed Williams said interest rates may need to be kept at an elevated level for a "few years" to bring down inflation.


Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -0.77% at 6422 dipped after the country's oil inventories hit their highest in months and on signs that the Federal Reserve could keep raising interest rates. U.S. crude oil stocks rose last week to their highest level since June 2021, helped by higher production, the Energy Information Administration said. Crude inventories rose by 2.4 million barrels in the week ended Feb. 3 to 455.1 million barrels, close to the 2.5 million-barrel rise that expected. U.S. oil production rose 100,000 barrels to touch 12.3 million, its highest since April 2020. Canadian crude imports also continued to climb as the Keystone oil pipeline returned to service after being shut temporarily due to a leak in December. Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub rose by 1 million barrels in the last week while net U.S. crude imports rose by 367,000 barrels per day, the EIA said. U.S. gasoline and distillate inventories also rose last week as demand remained weak. U.S. gasoline stocks rose by 5 million barrels to 239.6 million barrels, the EIA said, far surpassing the 1.3 million barrel rise expected. Brent's front-month loading contract rose to a $3-a-barrel premium over contracts six months out, a market structure called backwardation, which indicates traders seeing tight current supply. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -20.86% to settle at 4936 while prices are down -50 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6328 and below same could see a test of 6234 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6512, a move above could see prices testing 6602.
Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 6234-6602.
* Crude oil prices dipped after the country's oil inventories hit their highest in months and on signs that the Federal Reserve could keep raising interest rates.
* U.S. crude stocks rise as production climbs to highest since April 2020
* Crude inventories rose by 2.4 million barrels in the week ended Feb. 3 to 455.1 million barrels


Natural gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 3.17% at 208.1 on rising LNG exports and forecasts for slightly colder weather over the next two weeks than previously expected. The small price increase came despite a growing belief that Freeport LNG's export plant in Texas would start pulling in more gas to produce LNG for export in coming weeks. U.S. natural gas production will rise to a record high in 2023, while demand will fall, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO). EIA projected dry gas production will rise to 100.27 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2023 and 101.68 bcfd in 2024 from a record 98.09 bcfd in 2022. The agency also projected domestic gas consumption would fall to 87.04 bcfd in 2023 and 86.10 bcfd in 2024 from a record 88.63 bcfd in 2022. If correct, 2024 would be the first time since 2015 that output rises for four years in a row. EIA's latest projections for 2023 were lower than its January forecast of 100.34 bcfd for supply but higher than its January forecast of 86.74 bcfd for demand. But EIA's latest projections for 2023 were higher than its February 2022 forecasts of 97.97 bcfd for supply and 83.85 bcfd for demand. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -8.26% to settle at 37398 while prices are up 6.4 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 199.7 and below same could see a test of 191.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 213.2, a move above could see prices testing 218.2.
Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 191.2-218.2.
* Natural gas gained on rising LNG exports and forecasts for slightly colder weather over the next two weeks than previously expected.
* U.S. natgas output to hit record high in 2023, demand to fall
* EIA projected dry gas production will rise to 100.27 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2023 and 101.68 bcfd in 2024



Copper

Copper yesterday settled up by 0.54% at 775.9 helped by a subdued dollar while investors weigh supply disruptions against demand concerns. Investors have been betting on a recovery in China after the country removed its strict COVID-19 restrictions. Demand could start rebounding later in February when workers return from their Lunar New Year holiday break. Despite subdued imports, the latest data pointed to a bigger-than-usual inventory build-up in China over the Lunar New Year holiday. Copper inventories in SHFE warehouses jumped by 61.8% since January 20 to 226,509 tonnes on February 3. On the supply side, the Las Bambas mine in Peru officially halted production on February 1. Glencore's Antapaccay copper mine in Peru has resumed normal operations after closing for 11 days due to attacks by protesters in the South American nation. The world's refined copper market saw a 89,000 tonne deficit in November, compared with a surplus of 68,000 tonnes in October, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said in its latest monthly bulletin. World refined copper output in November was 2.2 million tonnes, while consumption was 2.3 million tonnes. For the first eleven months of 2022, the market was in a 384,000 tonne deficit compared with a 381,000 tonne deficit in the same period a year earlier, the ICSG said. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -3.3% to settle at 3841 while prices are up 4.2 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 771.8 and below same could see a test of 767.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 779.9, a move above could see prices testing 783.7.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 767.5-783.7.
* Copper bounced back, helped by a subdued dollar while investors weigh supply disruptions against demand concerns.
* LME copper inventory falling to 65,100 tonnes, lowest since November 2005.
* Investors have been betting on a recovery in China after the country removed its strict COVID-19 restrictions.


Zinc
Zinc yesterday settled down by -0.2% at 277.6 as investors have been betting on a recovery in China after the country removed its strict COVID-19 restrictions. Demand could start rebounding later in February when workers return from their Lunar New Year holiday break. Glencore's zinc production in 2022 was 938,500 mt, down 16% from 1.12 million mt in 2021. The global zinc market deficit climbed to 119,500 tonnes in November from a revised deficit of 39,400 tonnes a month earlier, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. Previously, the ILZSG had reported a deficit of 72,400 tonnes in October. During the first 11 months of 2022, ILZSG data showed a deficit of 228,000 tonnes versus a deficit of 163,000 tonnes in the same period of 2021. China's foreign exchange reserves rose to USD 3.184 trillion at the end of January 2023, up from USD 3.128 trillion in the previous month and above market expectations of USD 3.152 trillion. The country's foreign exchange reserves were the largest since March last year as the dollar fell against other major currencies, amid expectations the US Federal Reserve will reduce the pace of policy tightening. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 4.56% to settle at 2222 while prices are down -0.55 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 275.6 and below same could see a test of 273.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 280, a move above could see prices testing 282.2.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 273.4-282.2.
* Zinc dropped as investors have been betting on a recovery in China after the country removed its strict COVID-19 restrictions.
* The global zinc market deficit climbed to 119,500 tonnes in November from a revised deficit of 39,400 tonnes a month earlier
* Glencore's zinc production in 2022 was 938,500 mt, down 16% from 1.12 million mt in 2021.



Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 0.34% at 219.1 after reports smelters in Guizhou and Yunnan maintained production cuts. The operating aluminium capacity fell to 40.1 million mt in early February, and the output is expected to be 3.07 million mt this month. China's annual aluminum production in 2022 increased by 4.5% from a year earlier to a record high of 40.21 million tonnes thanks to newly launched capacity and softened power supply constraints. Still, fundamentals in the aluminum complex continued to be supported by prospects of more robust demand and historically low global inventories. China has taken significant steps to boost its economy and end the strict coronavirus-induced regime, lifting the outlook for metal demand and subduing some global recession concerns. On top of that, last year's output cuts at key European smelters, including Alcoa's San Ciprian smelter and Hydro's plant in Slovakia, offered prices a solid floor. The United States is preparing to impose a 200% tariff on Russian-made aluminum as soon as this week, as Washington looks to increase pressure on Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine. The U.S. is also targeting the Russian metal as Moscow has been dumping aluminum on the U.S. market and harming American companies, the report said, citing people familiar with the matter. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -2.23% to settle at 3375 while prices are up 0.75 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 217.6 and below same could see a test of 216.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 220, a move above could see prices testing 220.9.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 216.1-220.9.
* Aluminum gains after reports smelters in Guizhou and Yunnan maintained production cuts.
* China's annual aluminum production in 2022 increased by 4.5% from a year earlier to a record high of 40.21 million tonnes
* U.S. plans 200% tariff on Russian aluminum


Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.9% at 1001.7 on profit booking after prices gained on improving export demand especially from China. Mentha exports during Apr-Nov 2022 has dropped by 18.10 percent at 1,485.25 tonnes as compared to 1,813.38 tonnes exported during Apr- 2022 2021. In the month of November 2022 around 236.22 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 141.82 tonnes in October 2022 showing a rise of 66.56%. In the month of November 2022 around 236.22 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 249.26 tonnes in November 2021 showing a drop of 5.23%. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -5.3 Rupees to end at 1167.5 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -6.5% to settle at 834 while prices are down -9.1 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 992.8 and below same could see a test of 984 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1011.6, a move above could see prices testing 1021.6.
Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 984-1021.6.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -5.3 Rupees to end at 1167.5 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil dropped on profit booking after prices gained on improving export demand especially from China.
* Mentha exports during Apr-Nov 2022 has dropped by 18.10 percent at 1,485.25 tonnes
* In the month of November 2022 around 236.22 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 249.26 tonnes in November 2021


Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -0.99% at 7010 in view of inferior quality of arrivals and fears of a higher crop. Prices are also lower as inventories with users and stockists are high. The crop is good this season despite some projection of a lower crop. Yield is high in some areas and low in some areas, though Actually, we are wondering what the actual production could be in Maharashtra since the area under the crop has gone up rapidly this year. Turmeric exports during Apr-Nov 2022 has rose by 9.90 percent at 1,11,968.51 tonnes as compared to 1,01,882.03 tonnes exported during Apr-Nov 2021. In the month of November 2022 around 12,398.63 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 11,178.11 tonnes in October 2022 showing a rise of 10.92%. In the month of November 2022 around 12,398.63 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 12,255.64tonnes in November 2021 showing a rise of 1.17%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7071.95 Rupees dropped -77.9 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 1.45% to settle at 14005 while prices are down -70 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 6914 and below same could see a test of 6816 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7130, a move above could see prices testing 7248.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 6816-7248.
* Turmeric dropped in view of inferior quality of arrivals and fears of a higher crop.
* Prices are also lower as inventories with users and stockists are high.
* The crop is good this season despite some projection of a lower crop.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7071.95 Rupees dropped -77.9 Rupees.


Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 1.69% at 33165 on amid reduced sowing in Gujarat, coupled with a tight supply, and climatic uncertainties. Projections of lower carryover stock and fears of sowing in key growing regions of Gujarat being affected. Sowing In Gujarat, dropped by nearly -8% with 274,995.00 hectares against sown area of 2021 which was 300,401.00 hectares. Prices gained to all time high amid higher demand for the fresh crop and supply tightness in the physical market. Good demand expected from China in December-January and Ramzan demand during January-February from gulf & other countries. Jeera exports during Apr-Nov 2022 has dropped by 17.40 percent at 133,250.24 tonnes as compared to 161,317.94 tonnes exported during Apr-Nov 2021. In the month of November 2022 around 11,235.11 tonnes jeera was exported as against 12,427.86 tonnes in October 2022 showing a drop of 9.60%. In the month of November 2022 around 11,235.11 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 10,838.83 tonnes in November 2021 showing a rise of 3.66%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. Jeera production was seen at 725,651 tn, down 8.8% on year due to lower acreage in Rajasthan and Gujarat, the key producer, according to data from Spices Board India. According to fourth advanced estimates by Gujarat government, jeera production is seen fall by 44.5 per cent to 221500 tonnes in 2021-22 on yoy basis. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 282.3 Rupees to end at 32356.95 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 0.21% to settle at 4374 while prices are up 550 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 32670 and below same could see a test of 32175 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 33475, a move above could see prices testing 33785.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 32175-33785.
* Jeera prices gained amid reduced sowing in Gujarat, coupled with a tight supply, and climatic uncertainties.
* Projections of lower carryover stock and fears of sowing in key growing regions of Gujarat being affected.
* Sowing in Gujarat, dropped by nearly -10% with 275,832.00 hectares against sown area of 2021-22 which was 307,135.00 hectares.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 282.3 Rupees to end at 32356.95 Rupees per 100 kg.

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