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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 2.37% at 59383 as a global banking crisis sent investors flocking to the safe haven metal. The European Central Bank hiked rates by 50 basis points (bps), keeping up the pace of its monetary tightening to contain inflation despite the banking turmoil. The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in the U.S. has highlighted banks' vulnerabilities to sharply higher rates, while a rout in Credit Suisse shares added to market turmoil. A rally in bullion prices sparked by the global banking rout forced Indian dealers to offer steeper discounts on physical gold to lure retail customers and led to a drop in China premiums, while tempting some to resort to selling. Discounts in India widened to their highest in six weeks, as local gold prices jumped not far from the record high hit last month. While demand for jewelry remains low, traders noted the ongoing financial risks have, however, increased interest in gold bars and coins, while some people have been selling gold to take advantage of higher rates. Indian dealers were offering a discount of up to $27 an ounce over official domestic prices, up from $2 last week. Premiums in China slipped to the $20 to $26 range over global benchmark spot prices, compared with last week's $26 to $40 range. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 2.73% to settle at 8926 while prices are up 1377 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 58531 and below same could see a test of 57678 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 59849, a move above could see prices testing 60314.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 57678-60314.
* Gold crosses 59000 as global banking crisis sent investors flocking to safe haven.
* ECB hiked rates by 50 bps, keeping up the pace of its monetary tightening to contain inflation despite the banking turmoil.
* Indian discounts up to $27 an ounce vs $2 last week


Silver
Silver yesterday settled up by 2.96% at 68501 supported by a weaker dollar and concerns that the recent financial turmoil is far from over. Banks, including JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup, banded together in a show of support for First Republic Bank, agreeing to add $30 billion of deposits to the lender. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment for the US dropped for the first time in four months to 63.4 in March of 2023 from 67 in February, which was the highest reading in nearly a year, and well below forecasts of 67, a preliminary estimate showed. Manufacturing production in the United States increased 0.1 percent in February 2023, compared with expectations of a 0.1 percent decrease. Industrial production in the United States was unchanged in February 2023, missing market expectations of a 0.2 percent increase after rising by 0.3 percent in January. Still, investors remained worried about the risk of financial contagion to bigger institutions despite assurance from Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen that the American banking system was in good shape. At the same time, the recent turmoil drove money markets to price an over 80% chance of a 25 bps hike next week. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 15.58% to settle at 13417 while prices are up 1970 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 67432 and below same could see a test of 66364 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 69139, a move above could see prices testing 69778.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 66364-69778.
* Silver rose amid weaker dollar and concerns over recent financial turmoil.
* Consumer sentiment for the US dropped for the first time in four months to 63.4 in March of 2023 from 67 in February
* Manufacturing production in US increased 0.1 percent in February 2023, compared with expectations of a 0.1 percent decrease


Crude oil
Crude oil yesterday settled down by -2.85% at 5584 on the back of global banking turmoil that stoked fears of broader weakness in the world economy. Investors are watching closely for any potential response to the rout from OPEC+, with representatives from Saudi Arabia and Russia reportedly discussing efforts to promote market balance and stability. Saudi Arabia energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman recently stated that OPEC+ would stick to production cuts agreed upon in October until the year's end. Investors also remained optimistic about a rebound in Chinese demand, with OPEC raising its forecast for the country's oil demand growth in 2023. U.S. crude oil exports hit a record high in 2022 as releases from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) nearly matched the increase in domestic output to boost U.S. supply to countries looking to replace Russian crude. Exports of U.S. crude rose by 22% from 2021 to reach a peak of 3.6 million barrels per day (bpd) last year, as greater demand from Europe offset lower exports to India and China, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said. U.S. production in 2022 rose by 629,000 bpd, or 5.6%, to 11.9 million bpd, still off its record high of 12.3 million bpd reached in 2019. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 37.47% to settle at 12489 while prices are down -164 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 5424 and below same could see a test of 5265 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5774, a move above could see prices testing 5965.

Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 5265-5965.
* Crude oil dropped on the back of global banking turmoil that stoked fears of broader weakness in the world economy.
* Saudi Arabia energy minister stated that OPEC+ would stick to production cuts agreed upon in October until the year's end.
* Investors remained optimistic about a rebound in Chinese demand, with OPEC raising its forecast for oil demand growth in 2023.


Natural Gas
Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -6.18% at 197.3 on expectations for lower heating demand due to moderating weather. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a 58 Bcf withdrawal from U.S. natural gas storage for the week ending March 10, leaving stockpiles at 1,972 Bcf and growing the surplus to the five-year average to 378 Bcf (plus 23.7%). Data provider Refinitiv estimated 281 heating degree days (HDDs) over the next two weeks, down from 300 HDDs estimated on Wednesday. HDDs estimate demand to heat homes and businesses by measuring the number of degrees a day's average temperature is below 65 degrees Fahrenheit (18 degrees Celsius). Refinitiv forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, would slide from 120.5 bcfd this week to 117.8 bcfd next week. U.S. natural gas production will rise to a record high in 2023 while demand will fall, the EIA said in its STEO. EIA projected dry gas production to rise to 100.67 bcfd in 2023 and 101.69 bcfd in 2024 from a record 98.09 bcfd in 2022. The agency also projected that domestic gas consumption would fall to 86.40 bcfd in 2023 and 86.06 bcfd in 2024 from a record 88.54 bcfd in 2022. EIA's latest projections for 2023 were higher than its February forecast of 100.27 bcfd for supply but lower than its February forecast of 87.04 bcfd for demand. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 15.02% to settle at 32378 while prices are down -13 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 191.4 and below same could see a test of 185.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 206.4, a move above could see prices testing 215.5.

Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 185.5-215.5.
* Natural gas fell on expectations for lower heating demand amid moderating weather
* EIA reported a 58 Bcf withdrawal from U.S. natural gas storage, leaving stockpiles at 1,972 Bcf
* U.S. natural gas production will rise to a record high in 2023 while demand will fall, the EIA said.



Copper
Copper yesterday settled up by 0.46% at 754.75 as China's copper consumption is rebounding firmly and will likely stay strong in the next quarter, buoyed by a seasonal peak in demand and easing COVID-19 restrictions in the world's biggest consumer of the metal. The Yangshan copper premium more than doubled in a week to $47.50 a tonne, near a three-month high, indicating improving demand for imported copper in China. China's housing completion by areas rebounded 8% year-on-year in January and February from a 15% drop in the whole of 2022, National Bureau of Statistics data showed. Chinese state-backed research house Antaike predicted demand for refined copper in China, which accounts for about half of global demand, could grow 2.7% this year to 13.68 million tonnes. COMEX copper speculators have turned net short on copper, having been taking net long positions for four months, exchange data showed. The People's Bank of China cut the reserve requirement ratio for financial institutions by 25bps on March 17th 2023, effective from March 27th. It is the first rate cut in banks' reserve ratio since December, in an attempt to stimulate the economy, keep liquidity reasonably ample and better supply key areas, weak links. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -9.58% to settle at 2898 while prices are up 3.45 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 751 and below same could see a test of 747.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 758.8, a move above could see prices testing 762.8.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 747.2-762.8.
* Copper rose as China's copper consumption is rebounding firmly and to stay strong
* The Yangshan copper premium more than doubled in a week to $47.50 a tonne, near a three-month high
* Shanghai warehouse copper stocks down 15.2%.


Zinc
Zinc yesterday settled up by 0.8% at 257.45 as a host of bailout measures to avert a banking crisis soothed investors' nerves, while a weaker dollar and hopes for Chinese demand recovery also boosted sentiment. Sentiment was also supported by expectations of gradually recovering demand from top metals consumer China. China's home prices gained momentum nationally in February, rising for a second consecutive month driven by pent-up demand even in smaller cities, but prices have yet to recoup all their losses and there remains a sizable stock of unsold homes. The People's Bank of China cut the reserve requirement ratio for financial institutions by 25bps on March 17th 2023, effective from March 27th. It is the first rate cut in banks' reserve ratio since December, in an attempt to stimulate the economy, keep liquidity reasonably ample and better supply key areas, weak links. The RRR for big banks now stands at 10.75%, a fresh low since mid-2007 while the weighted average ratio for financial institutions stands at around 7.6%. The move was in line with market expectations, after PBoC governor Yi Gang recently said that "a reduction in the reserve requirement ratio would be an effective way to inject liquidity", but also noticed that there was limited room for policy rate cuts. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -10.11% to settle at 2784 while prices are up 2.05 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 256.4 and below same could see a test of 255.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 258.8, a move above could see prices testing 260.2.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 255.4-260.2.
* Zinc prices rose gain as banking crisis worries ease, dollar weakens
* Hopes for Chinese demand recovery boosted sentiment
* The People's Bank of China cut the reserve requirement ratio for financial institutions by 25bps



Aluminium
Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.05% at 203.5 as turmoil in the banking sector raised the threat of bank failures and slower economic growth. The Australian unit of U.S. aluminium producer Alcoa Corp said the output at its Portland smelter in Victoria would be reduced to about 75% of its total capacity of 358,000 metric tonnes per year. The smelter, is contending with uncertainty and hurdles related to the production of rodded anodes necessary to transport electricity into the smelting pots. China's aluminium production rose 7.5% to 6.74 million tonnes in January-February from a year earlier, the highest output for the two months since at least 2015, data showed. The primary aluminium output in China, the world's largest aluminium producer, compared with 6.33 million tonnes in the first two months of 2022, data from National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed. New production capacity came on line in January and February in northwest Gansu province, and smelters in the southwestern region including Guizhou, Guangxi and Sichuan ramped up their production. The aluminium ingot social inventories across China’s eight major markets stood at 1.21 million mt as of March 16, down 56,000 mt from a week ago and 58,000 mt from early March. The social inventory, albeit up 121,000 mt YoY, has been falling for two consecutive weeks. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -7.27% to settle at 3379 while prices are down -0.1 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 202.2 and below same could see a test of 200.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 205.8, a move above could see prices testing 207.9.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 200.7-207.9.
* Aluminium settled flat as banking woes raised threat of slower economic growth.
* China Jan – Feb aluminium output up 7.5% to 6.74 mln tonnes
* The aluminium ingot social inventories across China’s stood at 1.21 million mt as of March 16, down 56,000 mt from a week ago
 

Mentha oil
Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.06% at 1003.9 on profit booking after seen supported on improving export demand especially from China. Mentha exports during Apr-Jan 2023, dropped by 13.65 percent to 2,016.77 tonnes as compared to 2,335.63 tonnes exported during Apr-Jan 2022. In January 2023 around 233.21 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 298.38 tonnes in December 2022 showing a drop of 21.84%. In January 2023 around 233.21 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 171.07 tonnes in January 2022 showing a rise of 36.32%. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -0.2 Rupees to end at 1176 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -7.15% to settle at 558 while prices are down -0.6 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 1000.4 and below same could see a test of 996.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1008.1, a move above could see prices testing 1012.3.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 996.9-1012.3.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -0.2 Rupees to end at 1176 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil dropped on profit booking after seen supported on improving export demand especially from China.
* Mentha exports during Apr-Jan 2023, dropped by 13.65 percent to 2,016.77 tonnes
* In January 2023 around 233.21 tonnes was exported against 298.38 tonnes in December 2022 showing a drop of 21.84%.


Turmeric
Turmeric yesterday settled down by -0.27% at 6716 as turmeric harvesting has started in the key growing regions and farmers and stockists are releasing their stocks, in the fear of further decline in prices. In AP (Nizamabad) Turmeric market around 5,000-7,000 bags are arriving on an average daily basis. In the Erode spot market 400-600 bags are reported on a daily basis, In the Sangli district it is around 3500-7000 bags. Coupled with weak demand in the export and domestic market prices are trading at lower levels (in the current season). Turmeric exports during Apr-Jan 2023, rose by 7.76 percent at 1,36,492.59 tonnes as compared to 1,26,659.01 tonnes exported during Apr-Jan 2022. In January 2023 around 12,484.25 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 12,039.57 tonnes in December 2022 showing a rise of 3.69%. In January 2023 around 12,484.25 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 10,558.26 tonnes in January 2022 showing a rise of 18.24%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6786.55 Rupees dropped -71.9 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -1.39% to settle at 12390 while prices are down -18 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 6664 and below same could see a test of 6610 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6776, a move above could see prices testing 6834.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 6610-6834.
* Turmeric prices dropped as turmeric harvesting has started in key growing regions
* Farmers and stockists are releasing their stocks, in the fear of further decline in prices
* The crop is good this season despite some projection of a lower crop.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6786.55 Rupees dropped -71.9 Rupees.


Jeera
Jeera yesterday settled up by 3.24% at 33180 as demand has improved in the export and domestic market due to the Ramadan season ahead. Buyers get active in most of the markets with the commencement of new crop arrivals. Strong supply pressures are reported in the market at 7,000 bags, higher by 1,000 bags as farmers and stockiests are anticipating corrections in prices with the improved crop conditions due to favourable weather conditions in key producing states. Some damage has been reported in Gujarat, Banaskantha region due to very low temperature and frost impact. However, overall crop condition is quite good in Gujarat area as compared to Rajasthan key growing regions. Jeera exports during Apr-Jan 2023, dropped by 17.85 percent at 1,54,782.65 tonnes as compared to 1,88,428.54 tonnes exported during Apr-Jan 2022. In January 2023 around 8,716.71 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 12,798.15 tonnes in December 2022 showing a drop of 31.89%. In January 2023 around 8,716.71 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 14,725.40 tonnes in January 2022 showing a drop of 40.80%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. Jeera production was seen at 725,651 tn, down 8.8% on year due to lower acreage in Rajasthan and Gujarat, the key producer, according to data from Spices Board India. According to fourth advanced estimates by Gujarat government, jeera production is seen fall by 44.5 per cent to 221500 tonnes in 2021-22 on yoy basis. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 974.05 Rupees to end at 32385.3 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 2.22% to settle at 5670 while prices are up 1040 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 32375 and below same could see a test of 31575 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 33700, a move above could see prices testing 34225.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 31575-34225.
* Jeera gains as export demand has improved due to the Ramadan season ahead
* Global production will be higher at 4.35 lt against 4.08 lt.
* But net supplies from India are projected 7 per cent lower.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 974.05 Rupees to end at 32385.3 Rupees per 100 kg.

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