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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 2.66% at 57642 as the dollar weakened, while jitters over the largest U.S. bank failure since the 2008 financial crisis drove investors to the safe-haven asset. U.S. officials stepped in to stem financial fallout from the failure of tech startup-focused Silicon Valley Bank, saying that all customers would have access to their deposits starting on Monday. Data showed the U.S. economy added jobs at a brisk clip in February, but monthly wage growth slowed and the unemployment rate rose, pointing to some labour market loosening and prompting financial markets to dial back expectations that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates by half a percentage point this month. Physical gold dealers in India were forced to offer discounts as purchases moderated heading into the end of the financial year, while top consumer China saw robust demand. Premiums of $26-$40 an ounce were charged in China in comparison with global benchmark spot gold prices, which were headed for a weekly fall. Chinese premiums have steadily risen this year, going as high as $40. In India, dealers still had to offer discounts of up to $2 an ounce over official domestic prices versus last week's $1 premiums. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 2.48% to settle at 9674 while prices are up 1492 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 56770 and below same could see a test of 55898 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 58097, a move above could see prices testing 58552.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 55898-58552.
* Gold prices rose as the dollar weakened, while jitters over the largest U.S. bank failure since the 2008 financial crisis drove investors to the safe-haven asset.
* Data showed the U.S. economy added jobs at a brisk clip in February, but monthly wage growth slowed and the unemployment rate rose.
* ANZ lifts gold year end forecast to $2,000/oz

Silver

Silver yesterday settled up by 5.98% at 66652 as the dollar weakened as investors fretted over the largest U.S. bank failure since the 2008 financial crisis. The market turmoil from the Silicon Valley Bank collapse led traders to pare bets on the scope for further Fed policy tightening. Goldman Sachs analysts said they no longer expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates by 25 basis points at its next policy meeting on March 21-22. The number of unemployed people increased by 242 thousand to 5.94 million and employment levels rose by 177 thousand to 160.32 million. Fed Chair Powell told the US Congress that the ultimate level of interest rates could be higher than anticipated in light of strong economic data, and that the central bank would be prepared to increase the pace of tightening if needed. After the NFP release, expectations eased about the need for higher interest rates. The market is now pricing a 50/50 chance of the Fed raising rates by either 25bps or 50bps this month, compared to a better-than-even chance of 50bps increase earlier. Support also seen amid tight supplies, with inventories at the LBMA and COMEX remaining at low levels. Additionally, new data revealed reserves by major producer, Peru, dropped by 22,000 tonnes to 98,000 in 2022. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -13.08% to settle at 13338 while prices are up 3762 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 64410 and below same could see a test of 62168 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 67832, a move above could see prices testing 69012.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 62168-69012.
*Silver rallies on safe-haven demand amid us bank worries
* The market turmoil from the Silicon Valley Bank collapse led traders to pare bets on the scope for further Fed policy tightening.
* Goldman Sachs said they no longer expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates by 25 basis points at its next policy meeting on March 21-22.

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -2.1% at 6167 as investors fretted about contagion effects to other banks and the tech and start-up industry post the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank. Markets continue to worry about contagion effects despite U.S. regulators rushing to contain the fallout. At the same time, persistent worries about a global recession continued to cloud the demand outlook, particularly in the US and Europe. Still, speculation about a recovery in Chinese demand and a weaker dollar kept a floor under prices. Investors expect China's oil imports to hit a record high in 2023 amid growing demand for transportation fuel and as new refineries come online. U.S. crude oil stockpiles fell last week, breaking a 10-week streak of builds, while distillate inventories rose to the highest level in over a year, the Energy Information Administration said. Crude inventories fell by 1.7 million barrels to 478.5 million barrels in the week ending March 3, compared with expectations in a poll for a 0.4 million-barrel rise. U.S. weekly unaccounted for crude oil adjustments swung by the second most on record last week, according to the EIA, which has distorted some of the data. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 11.54% to settle at 8131 while prices are down -132 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 5977 and below same could see a test of 5787 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6345, a move above could see prices testing 6523.

Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 5787-6523.
* Crude oil prices fall as investors assess SVB fallout
* At the same time, persistent worries about a global recession continued to cloud the demand outlook, particularly in the US and Europe.
* China's oil imports to hit a record high in 2023 amid growing demand for transportation fuel and as new refineries come online.

Natural Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 3.95% at 210.4 on forecasts that demand will rise next week with the amount of gas flowing to U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants on track to hit a record high for the month. That price jump came despite a 5% drop in crude futures earlier in the day and forecasts for less cold weather over the next two weeks than previously expected. Freeport LNG's export plant in Texas was on track to pull in 1.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) of gas on Monday, up from 0.7 bcfd on Sunday, according to data provider Refinitiv. The plant exited an eight-month outage in February. That outage was caused by a fire in June 2022. Average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 98.8 bcfd so far in March from 98.2 bcfd in February. That compares with a monthly record of 99.9 bcfd in November 2022. In addition, extreme cold in early February and late December cut gas output by freezing oil and gas wells in several producing basins. Meteorologists projected weather in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly colder-than-normal through March 28 except for a few near-normal days from March 23-25. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -16.31% to settle at 29171 while prices are up 8 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 200.1 and below same could see a test of 189.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 218.7, a move above could see prices testing 227.

Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 189.8-227.
* Natural gas jumped on forecasts that demand will rise next week with the amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants.
* Freeport LNG's export plant in Texas was on track to pull in 1.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) of gas on Monday, up from 0.7 bcfd on Sunday.
* Average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 98.8 bcfd so far in March from 98.2 bcfd in February.


Copper

Copper yesterday settled up by 1.2% at 761.65 as investors continued to bet on strong demand from China, while the US bank rout pressured the dollar. The Chinese government announced more stimulus measures will be mandated this year to support infrastructure and construction at its National People’s Congress, adding to the hopes of economic recovery after PMI data revealed China’s manufacturing expanded at its fastest pace in multiple years in February. Meanwhile, persistent supply concerns also kept the floor under prices. Higher use in China drove inventories at the Shanghai Futures Exchange to drop for the second week to its lowest since January. Meanwhile, political unrest in South America also pressured output expectations in Peru. The world's refined copper market saw a three tonne surplus in December, compared with a deficit of 93,000 tonnes in November, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said in its latest monthly bulletin. World refined copper output and consumption in December were about 2.2 million tonnes. In 2022, the market was in a 376,000 tonne deficit compared with a 455,000 tonne deficit in the previous 12-month period, the ICSG said. Metals supply, meanwhile, should grow after a major mine in Peru resumed transportation of copper concentrate after unrest. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -5.65% to settle at 4227 while prices are up 9 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 745.7 and below same could see a test of 729.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 770.3, a move above could see prices testing 778.9.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 729.7-778.9.
* Copper gains as investors continued to bet on strong demand from China, while the US bank rout pressured the dollar.
* The Chinese government announced more stimulus measures will be mandated this year to support infrastructure and construction
* China’s manufacturing expanded at its fastest pace in multiple years in February.

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled up by 0.87% at 262.35 after data shows that the zinc ingot social inventories across seven major markets in China totalled 182,700 mt as of March 10, down 1,400 mt from the previous week and down 2,200 mt from March 6. Domestic refined zinc output in March is estimated to exceed 560,000 mt as high profits have propelled smelters to ramp up production, which may lead to a supply surplus. The output loss caused by power rationing in Yunnan will be 8,000-9,000 mt though. In April, smelters of Huludao Zinc Industry and Gansu Baohui will be under maintenance, and the affected output will be limited to 5,000 mt per month. In terms of demand, enterprises in north China have resumed normal production with the end of environmental protection-induced production restrictions. The actual orders for infrastructure construction have improved, albeit still mediocre, while the orders in the photovoltaic industry are growing. The global zinc market deficit rose to 100,500 tonnes in December from a revised deficit of 66,900 tonnes a month earlier, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -7.04% to settle at 3144 while prices are up 2.25 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 258.6 and below same could see a test of 254.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 264.3, a move above could see prices testing 266.3.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 254.9-266.3.
* Zinc gains after data shows that the zinc ingot social inventories in China totalled 182,700 mt down 1,400 mt from previous week.
* Domestic refined zinc output in March is estimated to exceed 560,000 mt as high profits have propelled smelters to ramp up production.
* Global zinc market deficit climbs to 100,500 T in December – ILZSG


Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 0.91% at 206.15 as China has taken significant steps to boost its economy and end the strict coronavirus-induced regime. The aluminium ingot social inventories across China's eight major markets stood at 1.267 million mt as of March 9, down 2,000 mt from a week ago, but up 122,000 mt from the same period last year. The social inventory remained high. Since the end of February, the inventory build-up has slowed down significantly, and the inventory has basically hovered around 1.27 million mt. After four consecutive weeks of decline, the domestic aluminium billet social inventory began to rise this week, adding 7,200 mt from a week ago to 163,400 mt as of March 9. Smelters raised the proportion of molten aluminium output last month, allowing more billets to arrive in early March. Wuxi led the growth as the lifting of storage restrictions pushed local inventory up by 8,400 mt. Global aluminium producers have offered Japanese buyers premiums of $125-$145 per tonne for April-June primary metal shipments, up 45%-71% from this quarter. The offers, if agreed by buyers, would mark the first increase in six quarters and the highest level since the October-December quarter in 2022, reflecting a view from producers that demand from automakers is set to pick up. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -8.85% to settle at 3686 while prices are up 1.85 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 203.3 and below same could see a test of 200.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 207.9, a move above could see prices testing 209.7.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 200.5-209.7.
* Aluminum gains as China has taken significant steps to boost its economy and end the strict coronavirus-induced regime.
* The aluminium ingot social inventories across China's eight major markets stood at 1.267 million mt, down 2,000 mt from a week ago.
* Global aluminium producers have offered Japanese buyers premiums of $125-$145 per tonne for April-June primary metal shipments.

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.2% at 1035.1 on profit booking after prices dropped on improving export demand especially from China. Mentha exports during Apr-Dec 2022 has dropped by 17.60 percent at 1,783.56 tonnes as compared to 2,164.56 tonnes exported during Apr-Dec 2021. In the month of December 2022 around 298.38 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 236.22 tonnes in November 2022 showing a rise of 26.29%. In the month of December 2022 around 298.32 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 351.18 tonnes in December 2021 showing a drop of 15.05%. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -7 Rupees to end at 1189.5 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -2.11% to settle at 790 while prices are down -2.1 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 1030.8 and below same could see a test of 1026.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1042.3, a move above could see prices testing 1049.4.

Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 1026.4-1049.4.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -7 Rupees to end at 1189.5 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil dropped on profit booking after prices dropped on improving export demand especially from China.
* Mentha exports during Apr-Dec 2022 has dropped by 17.60 percent at 1,783.56 tonnes
* In the month of December 2022 around 298.38 tonnes Mentha was exported a rise of 26.29% compared to previous month.

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -2.05% at 6772 as turmeric harvesting has started in the key growing regions and farmers and stockists are releasing their stocks, in the fear of further decline in prices. In AP (Nizamabad) Turmeric market around 5,000-7,000 bags are arriving on an average daily basis. In the Erode spot market 400-600 bags are reported on a daily basis, In the Sangli district it is around 3500-7000 bags. Coupled with weak demand in the export and domestic market prices are trading at lower levels (in the current season). Turmeric exports during Apr-Dec 2022 has rose by 6.81 percent at 1,24,008.08 tonnes as compared to 1,16,100.75 tonnes exported during Apr- Dec 2021. In the month of December 2022 around 12,039.57 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 12,398.63 tonnes in November 2022 showing a drop of 2.90%. In the month of December 2022 around 12,039.57 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 14,218.72 tonnes in December 2021 showing a rise of 15.83%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6868.85 Rupees dropped -115.9 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 1.45% to settle at 12280 while prices are down -142 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 6700 and below same could see a test of 6630 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6870, a move above could see prices testing 6970.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 6630-6970.
* Turmeric prices dropped as turmeric harvesting has started in the key growing regions
* Farmers and stockists are releasing their stocks, in the fear of further decline in prices
* The crop is good this season despite some projection of a lower crop.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6868.85 Rupees dropped -115.9 Rupees.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 1.13% at 31285 as demand has improved in the export and domestic market due to the Ramadan season ahead. Buyers get active in most of the markets with the commencement of new crop arrivals. Strong supply pressures are reported in the market at 7,000 bags, higher by 1,000 bags as farmers and stockiests are anticipating corrections in prices with the improved crop conditions due to favourable weather conditions in key producing states. Some damage has been reported in Gujarat, Banaskantha region due to very low temperature and frost impact. However, overall crop condition is quite good in Gujarat area as compared to Rajasthan key growing regions. Jeera exports during Apr-Dec 2022 has dropped by 15.91 percent at 146,065.90 tonnes as compared to 173,703.10 tonnes exported during Apr- Dec 2021. In the month of December 2022 around 12,798.15 tonnes jeera was exported as against 11,235.11 tonnes in November 2022 showing a rise of 13.91%. In the month of December 2022 around 12,798.15 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 12,385.20 tonnes in December 2021 showing a rise of 3.33%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. Jeera production was seen at 725,651 tn, down 8.8% on year due to lower acreage in Rajasthan and Gujarat, the key producer, according to data from Spices Board India. According to fourth advanced estimates by Gujarat government, jeera production is seen fall by 44.5 per cent to 221500 tonnes in 2021-22 on yoy basis. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 41.75 Rupees to end at 30716.65 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 4.15% to settle at 5046 while prices are up 350 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 30880 and below same could see a test of 30480 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 31525, a move above could see prices testing 31770.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 30480-31770.
* Jeera gains as demand has improved in the export and domestic market due to the Ramadan season ahead
* Global production will be higher at 4.35 lt against 4.08 lt.
* But net supplies from India are projected 7 per cent lower.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 41.75 Rupees to end at 30716.65 Rupees per 100 kg.

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