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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.25% at 57190 as the dollar firmed, while investors kept a close watch on the U.S. Federal Reserve's rate-hike decision and policy outlook. In the US, the Federal Reserve will likely slow down the pace of tightening at the end of its two-day policy meeting on Wednesday, delivering a 25 bps hike amid mounting evidence that inflation in the US has begun to ease. The latest data showed that the Fed-preferred core PCE inflation measure in the US slowed to an over one-year low in December. Meanwhile, both the Bank of England and the European Central Bank are set to raise rates by 50bps on Thursday. India's gold consumption in 2022 fell 3% from a year earlier, as a rally in local prices to near-record highs curtailed bullion demand during the key December quarter, the World Gold Council (WGC) said. Lower consumption in the world's second-biggest gold buyer could weigh on global prices , but help in bringing down India's trade deficit and support the ailing rupee. India's gold consumption declined to 774 tonnes last year as demand dropped 20% to 276.1 tonnes in the December quarter, the WGC said in a report. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -0.45% to settle at 19405 while prices are up 143 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 56812 and below same could see a test of 56433 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 57385, a move above could see prices testing 57579.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 56433-57579.
* Gold prices steadied as investors await central banks meetings in US, UK, and Euro Area.
* The latest data showed that the Fed-preferred core PCE inflation measure in the US slowed to an over one-year low in December.
* India's 2022 gold consumption drops 3% as prices rally – WGC

Silver

Silver yesterday settled up by 0.35% at 68829 as the dollar shed ground amid rising hopes the Fed will slow the pace of interest rate hike to 25 basis points on Wednesday. The central bank is expected to raise its funds rate by a slower 25bps, but investors tread cautiously, accounting for the possible dovish pivot pushback. Meanwhile, recession concerns tilted silver prices to go down, as traders worried about low demand for the metal as an industrial input for goods with high electricity conduction needs, which was reflected by its sharp underperformance to gold in January. Still, projections of weak supply limited the fall, as COMEX inventories remained under pressure and LBMA stockpiles plunged amid outflows to India. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its 2023 global growth outlook slightly due to surprisingly resilient demand in the United States and Europe, an easing of energy costs and the reopening of China's economy after the lifting of pandemic curbs. The IMF said global growth would still drop to 2.9% in 2023 from 3.4% in 2022, but its latest World Economic Outlook forecasts mark an improvement over an October prediction of 2.7% this year with warnings that the world could easily tip into recession. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -1.39% to settle at 18177 while prices are up 240 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 67998 and below same could see a test of 67167 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 69275, a move above could see prices testing 69721.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 67167-69721.
* Silver gains as the dollar shed ground amid rising hopes the Fed will slow the pace of interest rate hike to 25 basis points on Wednesday.
* COMEX inventories remained under pressure and LBMA stockpiles plunged amid outflows to India.
* IMF upgraded its forecast for world growth this year to 2.9 percent from a previous prediction of 2.7 percent in October.


Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 0.7% at 6463 as data showing an improvement in demand for crude and petroleum products in the U.S. in November helped lift oil higher. Russia's oil loadings from its Ust-Luga port are expected to rise at the beginning of February, despite western sanctions imposed over its invasion of Ukraine. OPEC oil output fell in January, as Iraqi exports declined and Nigerian output did not recover further, while Gulf members maintained strong compliance with an OPEC+ production cut deal to support the market. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries pumped 28.87 million barrels per day (bpd), the survey found, down 50,000 bpd from December. OPEC+ producers boosted output for most of 2022 as demand recovered. For November, with oil prices weakening, the group made its largest cut to production targets since the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. China's official purchasing managers' index (PMI), which measures manufacturing activity, rose in January from December, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The oil demand outlook looks supportive as China recovers, while supply remains uncertain because of upcoming sanctions on Russian refined products. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -15.41% to settle at 5243 while prices are up 45 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6338 and below same could see a test of 6212 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6544, a move above could see prices testing 6624.

Trading Ideas:

* Crude oil trading range for the day is 6212-6624.
* Crude oil gains as data showing an improvement in demand for crude and petroleum products in the U.S. in November helped lift oil higher.
* Further bearish sentiment followed news that Russia's oil loadings from its Ust-Luga port are expected to rise at the beginning of February
* OPEC oil output fell in January, as Iraqi exports declined and Nigerian output did not recover further

Natural gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -1.1% at 224.1 on expectations of lower demand after forecasts pointed to milder weather across most of the US and as production remained steady. Output held above 100 Bcf/d on Friday and through most of the last week, leaving it within reach of record levels around 102 Bcf/d. Meanwhile, the Freeport LNG export facility in Texas was allowed to restart production. However, it will not be able to fully relaunch in January leaving more gas on the domestic market. Meteorologists forecast temperatures across much of the lower 48 U.S. states would remain mostly colder than normal through Feb. 5, then turn warmer than normal through at least Feb. 14. With milder weather coming, Refinitiv forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, would drop from 133.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) this week to 129.9 bcfd next week, sharply down from Refinitiv's outlook on Friday. Last week, federal regulators approved Freeport's plan to start cooling down parts of the plant. That early step in the restart process will not result in big gas flows anytime soon. Freeport still has to go back to regulators to get permission to restart the liquefaction trains that turn the gas into LNG for export. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 0.92% to settle at 37459 while prices are down -2.5 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 219.3 and below same could see a test of 214.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 228.4, a move above could see prices testing 232.6.

Trading Ideas:

* Natural gas trading range for the day is 214.4-232.6.
* Natural gas tumbled on expectations of lower demand after forecasts pointed to milder weather and as production remained steady.
* Output held above 100 Bcf/d and through most of the last week, leaving it within reach of record levels around 102 Bcf/d.
* Meanwhile, the Freeport LNG export facility in Texas was allowed to restart production


Copper

Copper yesterday settled up by 0.7% at 787.6 as protests and blockades could halt production at the large Las Bambas copper mine in Peru. China's economic activity swung back to growth in January, and the International Monetary Fund made a slight increase to its 2023 global growth outlook. In top copper producer Chile, meanwhile, mine delays are slowing output growth. Copper output in Chile, the world's largest producer of the metal, fell 1.1% year-on-year to 497,971 tonnes in December, the country's statistics agency INE said. The huge Chinese-owned Las Bambas copper mine in Peru, normally the supplier of 2% of the metal worldwide, could halt production this week due to protests and blockades that are starting to snarl output of the red metal amid already tight global supply. China's refined copper production in 2022 rose 4.5% year on year to 11.06 million tonnes, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed. Refined copper production was 961,000 tonnes in December, up 3.6% from a year ago. On a daily basis, average copper output was 31,000 tonnes over last month, according to official data. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -0.51% to settle at 4307 while prices are up 5.45 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 778.2 and below same could see a test of 768.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 792.6, a move above could see prices testing 797.6.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 768.8-797.6.
* Copper gains as protests and blockades could halt production at the large Las Bambas copper mine in Peru.
* Chile copper production down 1.1% in December
* Chinese-owned copper mine in Peru may halt production over unrest

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -0.92% at 296.2 as SHFE zinc inventories grew for four weeks on end, and stood at 44,248 mt, with a weekly gain of 26.07%, the highest in two and a half months. The official NBS Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly increased to 50.1 in January of 2023 from 47.0 in the previous month, pointing to the first expansion in the sector since October last year, and beating market consensus of 49.8, amid lifting zero-Covid policy. The official NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI for China increased sharply to 54.4 in January 2023 from 41.6 a month earlier. This was the first expansion in the service sector in four months and the strongest growth since June last year, due to lifting zero-Covid policy. The NBS Composite PMI Output Index in China jumped to 52.9 in January 2023 from 42.6 in the previous month. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its 2023 global growth outlook slightly due to surprisingly resilient demand in the United States and Europe, an easing of energy costs and the reopening of China's economy after the lifting of pandemic curbs. Profits earned by China's industrial firms declined by 4.0% yoy to CNY 8.40 trillion in 2022, after a 3.6% drop in the previous period, reflecting the ongoing impact of long anti-COVID measures and a deepening property downturn. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -7.49% to settle at 2308 while prices are down -2.75 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 293.7 and below same could see a test of 291.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 298.6, a move above could see prices testing 301.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 291.2-301.
* Zinc dropped as SHFE zinc inventories grew with a weekly gain of 26.07%, the highest in two and a half months.
* The official NBS Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly increased to 50.1 in January of 2023 from 47.0 in the previous month
* IMF raises 2023 global growth outlook to 2.9%



Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 1.35% at 225.9 as continue to be supported by prospects of more robust demand and worries over supply shortages. China has taken significant steps to boost its economy and end the strict coronavirus-induced regime, lifting the outlook for metal demand and subduing global recession concerns. On the supply side, last year's output cuts at key European smelters, including Alcoa's San Ciprian smelter and Hydro's plant in Slovakia, offered prices a solid floor. Global inventories now stand at just 1.4 million tons, down 900,000 tons from a year ago and the lowest since 2002. Aluminum hit an all-time high of around 4,100 USD/T in March 2022 in the aftermath of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Commodity trader Glencore has delivered 40,000 tonnes of Russian aluminium to London Metal Exchange-approved warehouses in the South Korean port of Gwangyang, two sources with knowledge of the matter told. A build-up of Russian metal is likely to raise concern in the market that benchmark LME prices will weaken - an outcome some producers are keen to avoid as their contracts reference the benchmark. Global primary aluminium output in December rose 6.12% year on year to 5.859 million tonnes, data from the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) showed. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 3.5% to settle at 4579 while prices are up 3 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 222.4 and below same could see a test of 218.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 228.2, a move above could see prices testing 230.3.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 218.7-230.3.
* Aluminum gains as continue to be supported by prospects of more robust demand and worries over supply shortages.
* Global aluminium output rises 6.1% y/y in December – IAI
* Global inventories now stand at just 1.4 million tons, down 900,000 tons from a year ago and the lowest since 2002.


Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.08% at 1016.1 on improving export demand especially from China. Mentha exports during Apr-Nov 2022 has dropped by 18.10 percent at 1,485.25 tonnes as compared to 1,813.38 tonnes exported during Apr- 2022 2021. In the month of November 2022 around 236.22 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 141.82 tonnes in October 2022 showing a rise of 66.56%. In the month of November 2022 around 236.22 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 249.26 tonnes in November 2021 showing a drop of 5.23%. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 4 Rupees to end at 1176.1 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -0.63% to settle at 949 while prices are up 0.8 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 1010 and below same could see a test of 1003.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1020.5, a move above could see prices testing 1024.9.

Trading Ideas:

* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 1003.9-1024.9.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 4 Rupees to end at 1176.1 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil prices gained on improving export demand especially from China.
* Mentha exports during Apr-Nov 2022 has dropped by 18.10 percent at 1,485.25 tonnes
* In the month of November 2022 around 236.22 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 249.26 tonnes in November 2021

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 1.16% at 7344 after reports that production is projected lower by 5 per cent in Telangana due to overall drop in acreage and 20 per cent in Karnataka due to rot disease. The country’s production is estimated at 13.14 lt against 13.29 lt with heavy rains waterlogging the fields and affecting the output. The area under cultivation is lower in most parts of the country, barring Maharashtra. However, there has been no major pest attack and hence, due to the rise in overall area under the crop, the production was expected to be 10 per cent higher. Turmeric exports during Apr-Nov 2022 has rose by 9.90 percent at 1,11,968.51 tonnes as compared to 1,01,882.03 tonnes exported during Apr-Nov 2021. In the month of November 2022 around 12,398.63 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 11,178.11 tonnes in October 2022 showing a rise of 10.92%. In the month of November 2022 around 12,398.63 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 12,255.64tonnes in November 2021 showing a rise of 1.17%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7175.85 Rupees dropped -82.05 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 0.56% to settle at 13415 while prices are up 84 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7226 and below same could see a test of 7110 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7412, a move above could see prices testing 7482.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7110-7482.
* Turmeric gains after reports that production is projected lower by 5 per cent in Telangana and 20 per cent in Karnataka.
* The country’s production is estimated at 13.14 lt against 13.29 lt with heavy rains waterlogging the fields and affecting the output.
* The area under cultivation is lower in most parts of the country, barring Maharashtra.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7175.85 Rupees dropped -82.05 Rupees.


Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 2.81% at 32595 amid reduced sowing in Gujarat, coupled with a tight supply, and climatic uncertainties. Projections of lower carryover stock and fears of sowing in key growing regions of Gujarat being affected. Sowing In Gujarat, dropped by nearly -8% with 274,995.00 hectares against sown area of 2021 which was 300,401.00 hectares. Prices gained to all time high amid higher demand for the fresh crop and supply tightness in the physical market. Good demand expected from China in December-January and Ramzan demand during January-February from gulf & other countries. Jeera exports during Apr-Nov 2022 has dropped by 17.40 percent at 133,250.24 tonnes as compared to 161,317.94 tonnes exported during Apr-Nov 2021. In the month of November 2022 around 11,235.11 tonnes jeera was exported as against 12,427.86 tonnes in October 2022 showing a drop of 9.60%. In the month of November 2022 around 11,235.11 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 10,838.83 tonnes in November 2021 showing a rise of 3.66%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. Jeera production was seen at 725,651 tn, down 8.8% on year due to lower acreage in Rajasthan and Gujarat, the key producer, according to data from Spices Board India. According to fourth advanced estimates by Gujarat government, jeera production is seen fall by 44.5 per cent to 221500 tonnes in 2021-22 on yoy basis. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 329.7 Rupees to end at 32066.95 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -10.19% to settle at 4206 while prices are up 890 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 31530 and below same could see a test of 30460 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 33320, a move above could see prices testing 34040.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 30460-34040.
* Jeera prices gained amid reduced sowing in Gujarat, coupled with a tight supply, and climatic uncertainties.
* Projections of lower carryover stock and fears of sowing in key growing regions of Gujarat being affected.
* Sowing in Gujarat, dropped by nearly -10% with 275,832.00 hectares against sown area of 2021-22 which was 307,135.00 hectares.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 329.7 Rupees to end at 32066.95 Rupees per 100 kg.

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