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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.59% at 54997 as the dollar slipped on an improving risk sentiment, though trading volume is expected to remain low due to the holidays. China announced that it will end quarantine requirements for inbound travelers in early January, boosting market sentiment. Investors also assessed data from last week showing US inflation continued to ease in November, though a hawkish Federal Reserve outlook kept markets on edge. Earlier in December, the Fed raised interest rates by a more moderate 50 basis points but indicated that the terminal rate could reach 5.1% next year, higher than markets anticipated. The US trade deficit in goods narrowed by 15.6 percent from a month earlier to USD 83.3 billion in November 2022, the largest decline since 2009, an advance estimate showed. It was also the smallest deficit since December 2020, as imports tumbled 7.6 percent to an over year low, as consumers have been shifting spending away from goods and toward services in recent months. Wholesale inventories in the US rose by 1.0 percent month-over-month to $933.6 billion in November of 2022, picking up from a revised 0.6 percent rise in the prior month, preliminary estimates showed. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 1.73% to settle at 13949 while prices are up 320 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 54671 and below same could see a test of 54345 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 55344, a move above could see prices testing 55691.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 54345-55691.
* Gold rose as the dollar slipped on an improving risk sentiment, though trading volume is expected to remain low due to the holidays.
* China announced that it will end quarantine requirements for inbound travelers in early January, boosting market sentiment.
* Investors also assessed data from last week showing US inflation continued to ease in November, though a hawkish Fed outlook kept markets on edge.


Silver

Silver yesterday settled up by 1.05% at 69801 as the U.S. dollar weakened following China's decision to ease COVID curbs. China announced that inbound travellers would no longer have to go into quarantine from Jan. 8 and the new rule will make it much easier for people to return home. Stronger-than-expected US data reinforced the Federal Reserve’s case to raise interest rates further and keep them higher for longer. The personal consumption expenditure price index in the United States increased by 5.5% year-on-year in November of 2022, the least since October of 2021 and below 6.1% in October. Personal spending in the US edged up a meagre 0.1% month-over-month in November of 2022, following an upwardly revised 0.9% jump in October and below market forecasts of 0.2%, as consumer spending cooled during the holiday season. Core PCE prices in the US, which exclude food and energy, went up by 0.2% month-over-month in November of 2022, following an upwardly revised 0.3% increase in the prior month, matching market estimates. Shortage fears also supported prices, as New York’s COMEX inventories fell 70% in the last 18 months to just over 1 million tonnes. Also, the London Bullion Market Association stockpiles fell for the 10th straight month to a record-low 27.1 thousand tonnes in November. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 2.31% to settle at 22613 while prices are up 726 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 69247 and below same could see a test of 68694 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 70344, a move above could see prices testing 70888.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 68694-70888.
*Silver rose as the U.S. dollar weakened following China's decision to ease COVID curbs.
* The personal consumption expenditure price index in the United States increased by 5.5% year-on-year in November of 2022.
* Durable goods orders in the US, fell by 2.1% month-over-month in November 2022.



Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 0.56% at 6689 amid fears over supply disruption from winter storms across the United States and worries over a possible production cut by Russia. Prices were also boosted by hopes that easing anti-COVID measures will help revive fuel demand in the world's second-largest economy. Concerns over a possible production cut by Russia also contributed to oil price gains. Russia may cut oil output by 5-7 percent in early 2023 as it responds to price caps, the RIA news agency cited Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak as saying. U.S. crude oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) dropped 3.6 million barrels last week to 378.6 million barrels, its lowest since December 1983, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said. U.S. crude stocks and distillate inventories fell while gasoline inventories rose, the Energy Information Administration said. Crude inventories fell by 5.9 million barrels in the week to Dec. 16 to 418.2 million barrels, compared with expectations for a 1.7 million-barrel drop. Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub rose by 853,000 barrels in the last week, EIA said. Refinery crude runs fell by 150,000 barrels per day in the last week, EIA said. Refinery utilization rates fell by 1.3 percentage points in the week. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -6.64% to settle at 6497 while prices are up 37 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6603 and below same could see a test of 6517 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6752, a move above could see prices testing 6815.
Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 6517-6815.
* Crude oil gains amid fears over supply disruption from winter storms across the United States and worries over a possible production cut by Russia.
* Prices were also boosted by hopes that easing anti-COVID measures will help revive fuel demand in the world's second-largest economy.
* U.S. SPR crude stockpiles fall to lowest since Dec 1983 – EIA


Natural gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -1.43% at 428.6 as extreme cold this week boosted spot power and gas prices to their highest in years across much of the country and cut gas output to a nine-month low by freezing oil and gas wells in Texas, Oklahoma, North Dakota, Pennsylvania and elsewhere. Gas stockpiles are currently about 0.4% below the five-year (2017-2021) average for this time of year. U.S. and Canadian natural gas production is expected to hit new records in 2023, but growth may be slow due to weakened demand, pipeline bottlenecks and a lack of new liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants. Gas demand surged worldwide after Russia cut off Europe's primary supply, and the United States and Canada are expected to feed copious demand for exports in coming years, bolstered by high prices. The two countries produced a record combined 116 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2022. Traders said the biggest uncertainty for the market remains when Freeport LNG will restart its LNG export plant in Texas. Small amounts of gas started to flow to Freeport for the first time since August and continued to flow on Wednesday, according to data provider Refinitiv. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 16.16% to settle at 18839 while prices are down -6.2 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 419.9 and below same could see a test of 411.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 436, a move above could see prices testing 443.4.
Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 411.2-443.4.
* Natural gas dropped amid forecasts for warmer weather and as investors continue to monitor the situation at the Freeport LNG plant.
* U.S, Canada natgas output could hit growing pains in 2023
* Gas stockpiles are currently about 0.4% below the five-year (2017-2021) average for this time of year.



Copper
Copper yesterday settled up by 0.5% at 727.65 amid hopes of demand revival in China after the world's second-largest economy announced it would stop requiring inbound travelers to go into quarantine starting from January 8th. Elsewhere, prospects of lower copper production in South America continued to drive shortage concerns. Output from top producer Chile slid 6.7% in the first three quarters of the year, with mine protests in Peru stifling the activity. Commodity trader Trafigura warned that global copper stocks have fallen to record lows, with current inventories being enough to supply world consumption for just 4.9 days. Finally, mining giant Glencore estimated a supply shortfall of 50 million tonnes in 2023. The world's refined copper market saw a 46,000 tonne surplus in October, compared with a deficit of 85,000 tonnes in September, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said in its latest monthly bulletin. World refined copper output in October was 2.2 million tonnes, while consumption was 2.16 million tonnes. For the first ten months of the year, the market was in a 307,000 tonne deficit compared with a 271,000 tonne deficit in the same period a year earlier, the ICSG said. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -4.58% to settle at 4232 while prices are up 3.6 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 720.2 and below same could see a test of 712.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 736.7, a move above could see prices testing 745.7.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 712.7-745.7.
* Copper surged amid hopes of demand revival in China after it announced would stop requiring inbound travelers to go into quarantine starting from January 8th.
* Elsewhere, prospects of lower copper production in South America continued to drive shortage concerns.
* Output from top producer Chile slid 6.7% in the first three quarters of the year, with mine protests in Peru stifling the activity.


Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled up by 1.22% at 272.95 as inventories in ShFE and LME warehouses at 18,173 tonnes and 36,350 tonnes respectively slumped to their lowest on record. A bottleneck in smelting should ease, flipping the market from a 220,000 tonne deficit this year to a small surplus in 2023. Tight zinc supply from European smelters and concern over low global inventory levels will in the short term offer some support. China expects a peak in COVID-19 infections within a week, a health official said, as authorities predict extra strain on the health system and the virus ripples though business. The global zinc market deficit eased to 72,400 tonnes in October from a revised deficit of 99,900 tonnes a month earlier, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. Previously, the ILZSG had reported a deficit of 103,000 tonnes in September. During the first 10 months of 2022, ILZSG data showed a deficit of 117,000 tonnes versus a deficit of 125,000 tonnes in the same period of 2021. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) injected a net of CNY 704 billion into the banking system this week, the largest weekly injection since late October. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 1.6% to settle at 2031 while prices are up 3.3 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 270.2 and below same could see a test of 267.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 275.2, a move above could see prices testing 277.4.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 267.4-277.4.
* Zinc prices rose as inventories in ShFE and LME warehouses at 18,173 tonnes and 36,350 tonnes respectively slumped to their lowest on record.
* A bottleneck in smelting should ease, flipping the market from a 220,000 tonne deficit this year to a small surplus in 2023.
* Tight zinc supply from European smelters and concern over low global inventory levels will in the short term offer some support.



Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 0.57% at 210 amid sharp fall in inventories available on the London Metal Exchange (LME), but rising COVID cases in China and expectations of surplus supply next year limited gains. On the fundamentals, the supply side was still weighed on by the power rationing in south-west China, and the aluminium ingot in December is more than likely to fall short. In addition, the downstream processing industry has entered the seasonal low, featuring weak downstream consumption. According to the General Administration of Customs, Chinese primary aluminium imports totalled 110,700 mt in November, up 64.1% MoM but down 51.7% YoY. The exports stood at 2,397 mt, up 272.3% MoM and 299.5% YoY. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) injected a net of CNY 704 billion into the banking system this week, the largest weekly injection since late October. Aluminium ingot social inventory stood at 475,000 mt as of Thursday December 22, down 7,000 mt from a week ago and down 41,000 mt from the end of November. It was down 416,000 mt from the same period last year. Aluminium billet social inventory recorded 57,600 mt as of Thursday December 22, down 3,800 mt from a week ago which was largely contributed by Foshan. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 3.81% to settle at 3973 while prices are up 1.2 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 209 and below same could see a test of 208 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 211, a move above could see prices testing 212.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 208-212.
* Aluminium gained amid sharp fall in inventories available on the LME
* The supply side was still weighed on by the power rationing in south-west China.
* Chinese primary aluminium imports totalled 110,700 mt in November, up 64.1% MoM but down 51.7% YoY.


Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 1.2% at 1008.2 as the group of ministers’ (GoM’s) has given its views on bringing mentha oil, one of the key ingredients in pan masala, under the reverse charge mechanism. Mentha exports during Apr-Oct 2022 has dropped by 20.15 percent at 1,249.02 tonnes as compared to 1,564.12 tonnes exported during Apr- Oct 2021. In the month of October 2022 around 141.82 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 220.67 tonnes in September 2022 showing a drop of 35.73%. In the month of October 2022 around 141.82 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 279.00 tonnes in October 2021 showing a drop of 49.17%. Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted. Support also seen amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -2.3 Rupees to end at 1139.5 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 1.66% to settle at 917 while prices are up 12 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 996.8 and below same could see a test of 985.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1014.6, a move above could see prices testing 1021.1.
Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 985.5-1021.1.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -2.3 Rupees to end at 1139.5 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil prices gained as GoM’s has given its views on bringing mentha oil, under the reverse charge mechanism.
* Mentha exports during Apr-Oct 2022 has dropped by 20.15 percent at 1,249.02 tonnes.
* In the month of October 2022 around 141.82 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 279.00 tonnes in October 2021


Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -0.62% at 8350 on profit booking after prices gained as amid buying activities has increased amid weaker production for upcoming season. Not only weaker production, robust export demand and looming uncertainty over extent of crop damage in Andhra Pradesh will also help prices to trade on positive note. Marathwada region has been serving as a round-the-year supply centre for Turmeric since past couple of years. Agriculture Minister Narendra Singh Tomar said unseasonal rains in some parts of the country have affected the crops. Turmeric exports during Apr- Oct 2022 has rose by 11.09 percent at 99,569.88 tonnes as compared to 89,626.39 tonnes exported during Apr- Oct 2021. In the month of October 2022 around 11,178.11 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 13,990.65 tonnes in September 2022 showing a fall of 20.10%. In the month of October 2022 around 11,178.11 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 12,534.87 tonnes in October 2021 showing a fall of 10.82%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7449.9 Rupees dropped -9.25 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 2.44% to settle at 10480 while prices are down -52 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 8254 and below same could see a test of 8156 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8486, a move above could see prices testing 8620.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 8156-8620.
* Turmeric dropped on profit booking after prices gained as buying activities has increased amid weaker production for upcoming season.
* However, robust export demand and looming uncertainty over extent of crop damage in Andhra Pradesh limited downside
* Marathwada region has been serving as a round-the-year supply centre for Turmeric since past couple of years.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7449.9 Rupees dropped -9.25 Rupees.


Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled down by -0.52% at 29710 on profit booking after prices gained as sowing In Gujarat, dropped by nearly -6% with 268,775.00 hectares against sown area of 2021 which was 286,514.00 hectares. Prices gained to all time high amid higher demand for the fresh crop and supply tightness in the physical market. Good demand expected from China in December-January and Ramzan demand during January-February from gulf & other countries. Jeera exports during Apr- Oct 2022 has dropped by 18.92 percent at 1,22,015.13 tonnes as compared to 1,50,479.11 tonnes exported during Apr- Oct 2021. In the month of October 2022 around 12,427.86 tonnes jeera was exported as against 18,081.78 tonnes in September 2022 showing a drop of 31.27%. In the month of October 2022 around 12,427.86 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 11,260.72 tonnes in October 2021 showing a rise of 10.36%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. Jeera production was seen at 725,651 tn, down 8.8% on year due to lower acreage in Rajasthan and Gujarat, the key producer, according to data from Spices Board India. According to fourth advanced estimates by Gujarat government, jeera production is seen fall by 44.5 per cent to 221500 tonnes in 2021-22 on yoy basis. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -99.9 Rupees to end at 29140.85 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -0.49% to settle at 6765 while prices are down -155 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 29400 and below same could see a test of 29085 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 30040, a move above could see prices testing 30365.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 29085-30365.
* Jeera dropped on profit booking after prices gained as sowing in Gujarat, dropped by nearly -6% to 268,775 hectares
* Support also seen amid higher demand for the fresh crop and supply tightness.
* All-India Jeera production is expected to fall in the Marketing year 2022-23 by around 33% to 3 lakh tonnes on y-o-y basis due to lower sowings.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -99.9 Rupees to end at 29140.85 Rupees per 100 kg.

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