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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -1.04% at 54107 as major central banks set a more hawkish tone and signal interest rates will continue to rise. The Federal Reserve raised the fed funds rate by a more moderate 50 bps but said it could peak higher than anticipated in 2023. Both the ECB and the BoE also delivered a half-point increase and indicated that more hikes would probably follow. Elsewhere, the Norges Bank, the Swiss National Bank, and the central bank of the Philippines tightened monetary policy further. Manufacturing production in the United States fell 0.6% from a month earlier in November of 2022, after a 0.3% increase in October and worse than market expectations of a 0.1% decrease. Industrial production in the US decreased by 0.2% mom in November of 2022, following a 0.1% decrease in October and missing market expectations of a 0.1% gain as higher interest rates and prices weighed on demand. Manufacturing output dropped 0.6%, more than expectations for a 0.1% decrease. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell by 20,000 to 211,000 in the week ending December 10th, the lowest since the end of September and well below market expectations of 230,000. The seasonally unadjusted gauge fell by 39,095 to 248,881. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -4.94% to settle at 14982 while prices are down -567 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 53833 and below same could see a test of 53558 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 54432, a move above could see prices testing 54756.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 53558-54756.
* Gold extends losses as central banks become more hawkish
* Fed raised the fed funds rate by a more moderate 50 bps but said it could peak higher than anticipated in 2023.
* The ECB and the BoE also delivered a half-point increase and indicated that more hikes would probably follow.


Silver
Silver yesterday settled down by -2.14% at 67818 as hawkish central banks and concerns about a looming recession rattled investors. Retail sales data came much worse than expected as stubbornly high inflation and tight financial conditions hit consumer demand. The dollar recovered from six-month lows in the previous session as the Federal Reserve delivered a more moderate half percentage point rate hike in a widely expected move, but signaled that the fed funds rate could peak higher than anticipated in 2023. U.S. retail sales fell more than expected in November, likely payback after surging in the prior month, while the labor market remains tight, with the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits declining last week. The Commerce Department said that retail sales dropped 0.6% last month. Data for October was unrevised to show sales accelerating 1.3%. Retail sales are mostly goods and are not adjusted for inflation. Last month's decline in sales suggests holiday shopping was pulled forward into October. Motor vehicle shortages also depressed sales at auto dealerships. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell by 20,000 to 211,000 in the week ending December 10th, the lowest since the end of September and well below market expectations of 230,000. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -9.56% to settle at 19754 while prices are down -1484 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 67377 and below same could see a test of 66937 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 68292, a move above could see prices testing 68767.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 66937-68767.
* Silver dropped as hawkish central banks and concerns about a looming recession rattled investors.
* U.S. retail sales fell more than expected in November, likely payback after surging in the prior month
* The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell by 20,000 to 211,000


Crude oil
Crude oil yesterday settled down by -0.25% at 6386 as disappointing Chinese factory data piled onto demand concerns. Pressuring prices further were worries about a looming recession in the US, with a hawkish Federal Reserve signaling that interest rates will go higher for longer. Still, growing optimism for a recovery in demand and tight supplies have offered investors some respite. On the supply side, OPEC+ decided to stick to their existing policy of reducing oil output by 2 million barrels a day from November through 2023. Global oil demand growth will slow next year but will still be at a robust 1.7% as China recovers from COVID-related economic doldrums, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said. This year China is still headed for a contraction in oil demand of 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 15.4 million bpd, the IEA added, before recovering by almost one million bpd in 2023. U.S. crude oil stockpiles gained last week by the largest amount since March 2021, Energy Information Administration data showed. Crude stocks gained by about 10.2 million barrels to 424.1 million barrels, EIA data showed. Meanwhile, U.S. refiner percent utilization fell last week by 3.3%, the largest amount since September 2021, to 92.2%. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -16.15% to settle at 5936 while prices are down -16 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6291 and below same could see a test of 6195 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6458, a move above could see prices testing 6529.
Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 6195-6529.
* Crude oil dropped as disappointing Chinese factory data piled onto demand concerns.
* U.S. crude stockpiles rise by largest amount since March 2021 – EIA
* U.S. shale oil output to keep growing, at snail's pace – EIA


Nat.Gas
Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 8.3% at 576.8 on a bigger than expected storage draw, an increase in gas flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants and a drop in output as extreme cold from North Dakota to Texas caused oil and gas wells to freeze. Prices spiked despite forecasts for milder weather and lower heating demand in late December. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities pulled 50 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage during the week ended Dec. 9, exceeding the 45-bcf decline analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compared with a decrease of 83 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2017-2021) average decline of 93 bcf. Last week's decrease cut stockpiles to 3.412 trillion cubic feet (tcf), or 0.4% below the five-year average of 3.427 tcf for this time of year. Traders said the biggest uncertainty for the market remains when Freeport LNG will restart its LNG export plant in Texas. After several delays, the company has said it was on track to restart the plant by the end of the year. Once Freeport returns, demand for gas will rise. The plant can turn about 2.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) of gas into LNG. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 16.44% to settle at 7545 while prices are up 44.2 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 543.1 and below same could see a test of 509.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 595.6, a move above could see prices testing 614.3.
Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 509.3-614.3.
* Natural gas jumped on a bigger than expected storage draw, an increase in gas flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants
* Support also seen amid drop in output as extreme cold from North Dakota to Texas caused oil and gas wells to freeze.
* EIA said utilities pulled 50 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage during the week ended Dec. 9



Copper
Copper yesterday settled down by -1.46% at 702.25 as weak Chinese factory data and a U.S. Federal Reserve warning on further increases to interest rates fanned fears of weak demand. Weakening economic growth and rising interest rates dragged prices of the metal used in power and construction from a record high of $10,845 a tonne in March to as low as $6,955 in July. Prices have since recovered somewhat as investors look ahead to economic recovery and the end of interest rate hikes, but demand remains weak. Data showed that in China, the world's biggest metals consumer, the economy lost more momentum in November as factory output slowed and retail sales extended declines, both missing forecasts. The state-owned Chilean Copper Commission (Cochilco) cut its projection for the price of copper for 2023 to $3.70 per pound due to greater supply. The agency in July had estimated a copper price of $3.95 per pound in 2023. Cochilco also slightly lowered its 2022 forecast to $3.98 dollars, from the average $4.00 it estimated in July. In addition, the agency projected a production volume for Chile of 5.3 million tonnes of copper for 2022, which is a year-on-year decline of 5.8%. For 2023 the agency projects growth of 7.5% to 5.7 million tonnes. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -14.42% to settle at 4600 while prices are down -10.4 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 699.2 and below same could see a test of 696 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 707.9, a move above could see prices testing 713.4.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 696-713.4.
* Copper prices fall on weak China data and hawkish Fed
* Data showed that in China, the economy lost more momentum in November as factory output slowed and retail sales extended declines.
* Chile's Cochilco cuts copper price projection for 2023 to $3.70/lb


Zinc
Zinc yesterday settled down by -1.94% at 280.6 as easing COVID-19 curbs in top consumer China raised fears of an infection spike, weighing on the demand outlook. The Fed raised its interest rate by an expected 50 basis points, but struck a hawkish tone, indicating rates would remain higher until next year. China began shifting away from its "zero COVID" policy just this month, after rare protests against the economically damaging curbs that had been championed by President Xi Jinping. The relaxation has spurred concerns about a surge in COVID cases. The global zinc market deficit eased to 72,400 tonnes in October from a revised deficit of 99,900 tonnes a month earlier, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. Previously, the ILZSG had reported a deficit of 103,000 tonnes in September. During the first 10 months of 2022, ILZSG data showed a deficit of 117,000 tonnes versus a deficit of 125,000 tonnes in the same period of 2021. China's industrial production advanced 2.2% yoy in November 2022, less than market estimates of a 3.6% increase and easing from a 5.0% gain in the previous month. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -13.93% to settle at 2571 while prices are down -5.55 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 278.5 and below same could see a test of 276.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 284.4, a move above could see prices testing 288.1.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 276.3-288.1.
* Zinc dropped as easing COVID-19 curbs in top consumer China raised fears of an infection spike, weighing on the demand outlook.
* Global zinc market deficit slips to 72,400 T in October – ILZSG
* China industrial output growth weakest in 6 months



Aluminium
Aluminium yesterday settled down by -1.29% at 210.1 as the hawkish rhetoric delivered by the US Fed overnight dented the market sentiment. China's industrial production advanced 2.2% yoy in November 2022, less than market estimates of a 3.6% increase and easing from a 5.0% gain in the previous month. China's fixed-asset investment grew by 5.3 percent year-on-year from January to November 2022, after a 5.8% gain in the first ten months of the year, and below market forecasts of 5.6 percent. China's aluminium production rose by 9.4 % to 3.41 million tonnes in November from a year earlier, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics. In the first eleven months of the year, China produced 36.77 million tonnes, a rise of 3.9 % from the same period last year, the data showed. Production of ten nonferrous metals – including copper, aluminium, lead, zinc and nickel – rose 8.8 % to 5.88 million tonnes from a year earlier. Year-to-date output was up 4.2 % at 61.81 million tonnes. Global aluminium producers have offered Japanese buyers premiums of $95-$105 per tonne for January-March primary metal shipments, down 4% to up 6% from the current quarter. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -12.62% to settle at 4424 while prices are down -2.75 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 208.9 and below same could see a test of 207.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 212.4, a move above could see prices testing 214.6.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 207.6-214.6.
* Aluminum dropped as the hawkish rhetoric delivered by the US Fed overnight dented the market sentiment.
* China aluminium production up 9.4 % to 3.41 mln tonnes in Nov – stats bureau
* Global aluminium producers have offered Japanese buyers premiums of $95-$105 per tonne for January-March primary metal shipments


Mentha oil
Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 1.19% at 1016.5 as the group of ministers’ (GoM’s) has given its views on bringing mentha oil, one of the key ingredients in pan masala, under the reverse charge mechanism. Mentha exports during Apr-Oct 2022 has dropped by 20.15 percent at 1,249.02 tonnes as compared to 1,564.12 tonnes exported during Apr- Oct 2021. In the month of October 2022 around 141.82 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 220.67 tonnes in September 2022 showing a drop of 35.73%. In the month of October 2022 around 141.82 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 279.00 tonnes in October 2021 showing a drop of 49.17%. Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted. Support also seen amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 24.1 Rupees to end at 1155.5 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -7.17% to settle at 596 while prices are up 12 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 1009.1 and below same could see a test of 1001.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1026, a move above could see prices testing 1035.4.
Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 1001.6-1035.4.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 24.1 Rupees to end at 1155.5 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil gains as GoM’s has given its views on bringing mentha oil, under the reverse charge mechanism.
* Mentha exports during Apr-Oct 2022 has dropped by 20.15 percent at 1,249.02 tonnes.
* In the month of October 2022 around 141.82 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 279.00 tonnes in October 2021


Turmeric
Turmeric yesterday settled up by 3.34% at 8420 as buying activities has increased amid weaker production for upcoming season. Not only weaker production, robust export demand and looming uncertainty over extent of crop damage in Andhra Pradesh will also help prices to trade on positive note. Marathwada region has been serving as a round-the-year supply centre for Turmeric since past couple of years. Agriculture Minister Narendra Singh Tomar said unseasonal rains in some parts of the country have affected the crops. Turmeric exports during Apr- Oct 2022 has rose by 11.09 percent at 99,569.88 tonnes as compared to 89,626.39 tonnes exported during Apr- Oct 2021. In the month of October 2022 around 11,178.11 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 13,990.65 tonnes in September 2022 showing a fall of 20.10%. In the month of October 2022 around 11,178.11 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 12,534.87 tonnes in October 2021 showing a fall of 10.82%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7430.5 Rupees gained 128.7 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 3.44% to settle at 8120 while prices are up 272 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 8220 and below same could see a test of 8020 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8558, a move above could see prices testing 8696.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 8020-8696.
* Turmeric prices gains as buying activities has increased amid weaker production for upcoming season.
* Robust export demand and looming uncertainty over extent of crop damage in Andhra Pradesh also help prices.
* Marathwada region has been serving as a round-the-year supply centre for Turmeric since past couple of years.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7430.5 Rupees gained 128.7 Rupees.


Jeera
Jeera yesterday settled down by -0.14% at 27645 on profit booking after prices gained to all time high amid higher demand for the fresh crop and supply tightness in the physical market. Good demand expected from China in December-January and Ramzan demand during January-February from gulf & other countries. Jeera sowing around 75% to 80% sowing has been completed in Rajasthan Jeera growing regions, last year till date sowing completed around 85% to 90%. Jeera exports during Apr- Oct 2022 has dropped by 18.92 percent at 1,22,015.13 tonnes as compared to 1,50,479.11 tonnes exported during Apr- Oct 2021. In the month of October 2022 around 12,427.86 tonnes jeera was exported as against 18,081.78 tonnes in September 2022 showing a drop of 31.27%. In the month of October 2022 around 12,427.86 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 11,260.72 tonnes in October 2021 showing a rise of 10.36%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. Jeera production was seen at 725,651 tn, down 8.8% on year due to lower acreage in Rajasthan and Gujarat, the key producer, according to data from Spices Board India. According to fourth advanced estimates by Gujarat government, jeera production is seen fall by 44.5 per cent to 221500 tonnes in 2021-22 on yoy basis. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 220.45 Rupees to end at 26798.95 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -1.15% to settle at 7497 while prices are down -40 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 27460 and below same could see a test of 27270 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 27840, a move above could see prices testing 28030.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 27270-28030.
* Jeera dropped on profit booking after prices gained to all time high amid higher demand for the fresh crop and supply tightness.
* Current year sowing area likely to increase in Rajasthan and Gujarat growing regions.
* All-India Jeera production is expected to fall in the Marketing year 2022-23 by around 33% to 3 lakh tonnes on y-o-y basis due to lower sowings.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 220.45 Rupees to end at 26798.95 Rupees per 100 kg.


Cotton
Cotton yesterday settled down by -0.57% at 31150 as India’s domestic cotton demand for the 2022-23 season up to September is estimated to be lower by about 18 lakh bales (170 kg each) at 300 lakh bales or nearly 6 per cent less than last year’s 318 lakh bales. According to the Punjab Mandi Board data, cotton crop has seen the slowest arrival in the last five years even as the average rate is the highest since 2018. Punjab is expected to have produced 20 lakh quintals against 29 lakh quintals produced in the 2021-22 season. China's agriculture ministry lowered its outlook for cotton consumption, as slowing global economic growth continues to hurt demand for textiles. China's cotton consumption in the 2022/23 crop year that began in September is seen at 7.5 million tonnes, 200,000 tonnes lower than in last month's forecast, the ministry said in its monthly Chinese Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (CASDE) report. According to USDA, World Cotton and Market Report, Global cotton production is estimated down by 700,000 bales from the previous month to 115.7 million, largely owing to lower production in Pakistan. Pakistan production has fallen due to floods and poor weather. Global stocks are forecasted higher with consumption projected lower more than 3.0 million bales. This is the seventh consecutive monthly decline for global consumption. In spot market, Cotton dropped by -70 Rupees to end at 31850 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -7.65% to settle at 1846 while prices are down -180 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 31010 and below same could see a test of 30880 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 31360, a move above could see prices testing 31580.
Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 30880-31580.
* Cotton dropped as India’s domestic cotton demand for the 2022-23 season estimated to be lower by about 18 lakh bales at 300 lakh bales
* China cuts cotton demand outlook on slowing global growth
* USDA cotton projections for 2022/23 indicated a slight increase from 2021/22 for world cotton
* In spot market, Cotton dropped  by -70 Rupees to end at 31850 Rupees.

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