Jeera trading range for the day is 13695-13965 - Kedia Advisory
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Gold
Gold yesterday settled down by -0.34% at 47303 as investors awaited policy cues from the Federal Reserve's meeting this week. The Fed slashed its benchmark overnight interest rate to near zero last March after the pandemic hit the United States, and has promised to leave borrowing costs unchanged until the economy reaches full employment and inflation hits 2%. China's net gold imports via Hong Kong jumped about 295% in March from the previous month, Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department data showed. Net gold imports via Hong Kong to China, the world's top consumer of the metal, stood at 16.545 tonnes in March, compared with 4.192 tonnes in February, the data showed. Total gold imports via Hong Kong rose to 21.766 tonnes from 5.386 tonnes in February. New orders for key U.S.-made capital goods rose solidly in March and shipments surged, cementing expectations that economic growth accelerated in the first quarter as massive government aid and improving public health boosted demand. The strength in business spending reported by the Commerce Department joined upbeat data on retail sales and the labor market in setting up the economy for what analysts expect will be its best performance this year in nearly four decades. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.2% to settled at 10791 while prices down -159 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 47213 and below same could see a test of 47122 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 47455, a move above could see prices testing 47606.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 47122-47606.
* Gold prices ended with small losses as investors awaited policy cues from the Federal Reserve's meeting this week.
* China's net gold imports via Hong Kong jumped about 295% in March from the previous month
* India's physical gold demand faltered last week as strict restrictions to contain the spread of COVID-19 kept buyers away.
Silver
Silver yesterday settled up by 0.4% at 68958 tracking rise in base metals and crude oil prices ahead of a two-day policy meeting of the Federal Reserve. The Bank of Japan maintained its massive stimulus and raised its growth forecasts for the world's third-largest economy, citing expected stronger demand. Bank of Japan cut this fiscal year’s consumer inflation forecast and warned of lingering risks to the economic outlook as the COVID-19 pandemic continues to hurt consumption. As widely expected, the BOJ maintained its short-term interest rate target at -0.1% and that for 10-year government bond yields around 0%. The German government raised its growth forecast for Europe’s largest economy to 3.5% from a previous estimate of 3% as it expects household spending to support the recovery once COVID-19 restrictions are lifted, the economy minister said. Germany is struggling to contain an aggressive third wave of COVID-19 infections as efforts have been complicated by the more contagious B117 variant, first discovered in Britain, and a relatively slow introduction of vaccines against the pandemic. Presenting the government’s updated growth forecast, Economy Minister Peter Altmaier said Berlin expected gross domestic product to grow by 3.6% next year and the economy to reach its pre-pandemic level in 2022 at the latest. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -12.19% to settled at 6845 while prices up 278 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 68521 and below same could see a test of 68083 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 69297, a move above could see prices testing 69635.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 68083-69635.
* Silver gained tracking rise in base metals and crude oil prices ahead of a two-day policy meeting of the Federal Reserve.
* BOJ maintained its massive stimulus and raised its growth forecasts, citing expected stronger demand.
* German govt lifts 2021 GDP growth forecast to 3.5%, sees 3.6% in 2022
Crude oil
Crude oil yesterday settled up by 0.39% at 4676 after OPEC and its allies projected a strong recovery in global oil demand this year. The upside was capped by growing concerns about fuel demand. OPEC and its allies led by Russia will meet today to discuss production policy as downside risks mount amid concerns about new coronavirus spikes in countries like India, Brazil and Japan. On Monday, OPEC+ kept its forecast for global oil demand growth for this year unchanged, projecting it to rise by 6 million barrels per day (bpd) for 2021 after the biggest ever fall of 9.5 million bpd due to the pandemic. The OPEC+ joint technical committee (JTC) is concerned about the growing coronavirus case numbers in some substantial oil importers. Kuwait Oil Minister Mohammad Abdulatif al-Fares said global demand for crude oil "improved noticeably" as a result of COVID-19 vaccine rollouts and economic stimulus in major economies, the state-run Kuwait News Agency reported. Al-Fares spoke ahead of a virtual meeting of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known collectively as OPEC+, the agency said. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 3.97% to settled at 5344 while prices up 18 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 4651 and below same could see a test of 4625 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4700, a move above could see prices testing 4723.
Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 4625-4723.
* Crude oil edged higher after OPEC and its allies projected a strong recovery in global oil demand this year.
* The upside was capped by growing concerns about fuel demand.
* OPEC+ kept its forecast for global oil demand growth for this year unchanged, projecting it to rise by 6 million barrels per day (bpd) for 2021
Nat.Gas
Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 2.43% at 218.9 buoyed by record exports and declining production, despite forecasts for milder weather and lower heating demand over the next two weeks. Traders also noted that colder than usual April weather last week boosted heating by so much that utilities may have taken the unusual step of pulling gas from storage. The last time utilities pulled gas from storage in April was in 2018. With summer fast approaching, meteorologists forecast that demand for air conditioning would exceed heating demand over the next two weeks for the first time since last autumn. Most parts of the country, however, will use no air conditioning or heat during that time. Data provider Refinitiv said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states has averaged 91.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in April, down from 91.5 bcfd in March. That compares with a record monthly high of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019. Refinitiv projected average gas demand, including exports, would slide from 89.9 bcfd this week to 86.7 bcfd next week as the weather turns milder. Those forecasts were lower than Refinitiv projected on Monday. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants has averaged 11.5 bcfd so far in April, compared with a monthly record of 11.2 bcfd in March. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 13.69% to settled at 21021 while prices up 5.2 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 213.8 and below same could see a test of 208.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 222.1, a move above could see prices testing 225.3.
Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 208.7-225.3.
* Natural gas rose buoyed by record exports and declining production, despite forecasts for milder weather and lower heating demand over the next two weeks.
* Colder than usual April weather last week boosted heating by so much that utilities may have taken the unusual step of pulling gas from storage.
* The U.S. EIA said utilities added 38 bcf of gas into storage during the week ended April 16.
Copper
Copper yesterday settled up by 0.97% at 762.9 tracking LME copper price which has risen to its highest point in 10 years amid continuing demand and supply concerns, following reports of strike action threatened by port workers in Chile. LME copper was at levels last seen in 2011, the year copper reached an all-time high of $10,190/t. Copper prices gained on Chile supply concerns, sliding inventories, a weaker US dollar and expected strong demand from top consumer China triggered fresh buying. Chilean government and unions over changes to pension laws threatened to trigger strikes, threatening to inhibit already tight supplies of the industrial metal. The threat of covid-19 in nations in South America could hamper the export of key industrial commodities like iron ore and copperAlso Investors are betting that copper will be a key raw material in the Biden administration's infrastructure plans and a global transition to sustainable energy. Goldman Sachs said recently copper price can surge to $15,000 by 2025. Electric vehicles use more than double the copper of an internal combustion engine vehicle. With more EV commitments from car companies, the metal will be a market to watch in the years ahead. U.S. economic growth could soon peak due to rising taxes, which may boost the relative performance of cyclical sectors with more exposure to other global economies such as materials. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.9% to settled at 4226 while prices up 7.35 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 757.1 and below same could see a test of 751.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 768.4, a move above could see prices testing 773.7.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 751.1-773.7.
* Copper prices gained on Chile supply concerns, sliding inventories, a weaker US dollar and expected strong demand from top consumer China triggered fresh buying.
* Chilean government and unions over changes to pension laws threatened to trigger strikes, threatening to inhibit already tight supplies
* Aggregate open interest in copper is at the highest in more than a year on the Shanghai Futures Exchange
Zinc
Zinc yesterday settled down by -0.32% at 234.9 on profit booking as the safety of vaccines in Europe and US still aroused worries after prices gained amid improving demand prospects due to a global economic recovery and increased investments in green initiatives. ShFE zinc prices soared 3.2% to 22,430 yuan a tonne, its highest since March 23. Zinc concentrate imports in March exceeded expectations. Imported zinc concentrate will arrived at smelters in April and May. Imports are expected to remain high levels. Zinc concentrate is expected to remain a tight balance in Q2 amid the seasonal recovery of domestic mines. Maintenance at smelters will increase in May and output is expected to increase only 8,000 mt on the month, which is far less than expected. Thus, demand for zinc concentrate rose slightly. TCs in some regions is likely to rise in May as the tight zinc concentrate supply is eased. The national average price of zinc concentrate TCs is expected to increase by about 50 yuan/mt month-on-month in May, and the cost support for smelters will be slightly lowered. Though orders weakened amid high raw material prices, social inventories declined amid rigid demand. Data showed that social inventories of refined zinc ingots across Shanghai, Tianjin, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong and Hebei decreased 12,000 mt from last Friday April 23 to 189,800 mt as of Monday April 26. The stocks were down 27,900 mt from April 19. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 7.53% to settled at 2442 while prices down -0.75 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 231.8 and below same could see a test of 228.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 237.4, a move above could see prices testing 239.7.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 228.5-239.7.
* Zinc dropped on profit booking as the safety of vaccines in Europe and US still aroused worries after prices gained amid improving demand prospects
* ShFE zinc prices soared 3.2% to 22,430 yuan a tonne, its highest since March 23.
* Maintenance at smelters will increase in May and output is expected to increase only 8,000 mt on the month, which is far less than expected.
Nickel
Nickel yesterday settled up by 1.8% at 1278.8 as support seen after data showed that the preliminary purchasing managers' index (PMI) of manufacturing and service industries in the US in April reached the highest level since 2009. The sales volume of new residential buildings in the US reached the highest level since 2006 in March. In April, the PMI of Britain showed that the economic activity had the fastest growth rate in seven years, and the retail sales in March had the biggest growth rate in nine months. Eurozone PMI data in April was stronger than expected. European and American economic data performed well, and market sentiment was high. In addition, the trend of weak domestic market and strong overseas market continued, and the increase of anti-hedging operations in the market is expected to further boost the domestic market. Data showed inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 10.4% from a week earlier, the exchange said. The euro zone's recovery from its pandemic-induced economic downturn was much stronger than expected in April as the service industry adapted to lockdowns and made a surprise return to growth, a survey showed. With the continent facing a fresh wave of coronavirus infections governments have reimposed strict curbs to contain the spread, forcing some businesses to close and encouraging citizens to stay home. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 7.38% to settled at 1382 while prices up 22.6 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1265.9 and below same could see a test of 1252.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1286.2, a move above could see prices testing 1293.5.
Trading Ideas:
* Nickel trading range for the day is 1252.9-1293.5.
* Nickel prices rallied as support seen after data showed that PMI manufacturing and service industries in the US in April reached the highest level since 2009.
* The euro zone's recovery from its pandemic-induced economic downturn was much stronger than expected in April as the service industry adapted to lockdowns
* The global nickel market surplus expanded to 6,200 tonnes in February from a downwardly revised surplus of 3,500 tonnes in the previous month
Aluminium
Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.28% at 194.25 on profit booking after prices gained as support seen as social inventories of aluminium ingots stood at 1.14 million mt in China as of April 26, down 1,000 mt from last Thursday. The Federal Open Market Committee ends its two-day meeting on Wednesday, and while no major policy changes are expected, investors will pay close attention to comments from Chairman Jerome Powell. Powell is likely to face questions over whether an improving labor market and rising coronavirus vaccinations warrant a withdrawal of monetary easing. Most analysts though expect him to say such talk is premature, which could put downward pressure on Treasury yields and the dollar. German business sentiment rose by less than expected in April, the Ifo Institute’s business climate index revealed Monday, as a third wave of Covid-19 infections and industrial sector supply problems weighed on the recovery of Europe’s largest economy. Investors are bracing for a busy week of economic events and data in the U.S. this coming week, with more U.S. corporate earnings due (some of the largest companies in the world are scheduled to publish results this week including Apple, Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet) as well as big data releases, including the latest gross domestic product data due Thursday and inflation data Friday. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -7.3% to settled at 1968 while prices down -0.55 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 193.1 and below same could see a test of 191.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 195.6, a move above could see prices testing 196.8.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 191.8-196.8.
* Aluminium dropped on profit booking after prices gained as inventories of aluminium ingots stood at 1.14 million mt in China, down 1,000 mt
* Shanghai aluminium prices as the Chinese market gears up for a seasonal demand peak.
* Primary aluminium ingot inventories in China fell, showed data.
Mentha oil
Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.24% at 958.1 on low level buying after prices dropped amid worries of lockdown it is anticipated that there will be slow supply and same with demand in domestic as well as in the international market. Due to favourable wheather condition,the production of mentha in the states has improved and is at much better terms compare to last year. Sowing data is adequate and it is expected that Mentha can hit the market by 15th of June. Mentha has high demand in the production of cosmetics and confectionery goods but as it is not considered as necessity in present scenerio it is not much in demand. The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market. The market has been faced with the lack of migrant labor, supply chain disruptions, shutdown of manufacturing activities, to name a few. In India, mentha is grown on 3,27,000-3,34,000 hectares, producing about 33,000-35,000 tonnes, accounting for 80 per cent share globally. With the boom in demand for oil and its derivatives in export markets, mentha production continued to rise until 2010. However, with the entry of synthetic menthol, the demand, price and production of mentha were hit. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 11.7 Rupees to end at 1064.6 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 6.25% to settled at 17 while prices up 2.3 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 956.3 and below same could see a test of 954.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 959.8, a move above could see prices testing 961.4.
Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 954.4-961.4.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 11.7 Rupees to end at 1064.6 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil gained on low level buying after prices dropped amid worries of lockdown there will be slow demand
* Due to favourable wheather condition,the production of mentha in the states has improved and is at much better terms compare to last year.
* The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market.
Soyabean
Soyabean yesterday settled up by 4.62% at 7163 tracking rise in overseas prices as global supply tightens, and demand persists. Exporters sold 120,000 tonnes of new crop soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations, the USDA said. The Solvent Extractors’ Association (SEA) of India has stressed the need to impose more measures to check the excessive speculative activity in the soyabean futures. In a letter to the members of SEA of India, Atul Chaturvedi, President of the association, said that SEA was flooded with complaints from its members that the soyabean contract on the commodity exchange was witnessing an unnatural price run due to technical reasons and alleged price rigging by speculators. India is likely to receive “normal” monsoon rainfall this year, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said as part of its official April forecast. Except for parts of eastern and northeastern India, many parts of the country are expected to get “above normal” rainfall, the IMD’s models show. CME raises soybean futures (s) maintenance margins by 14.2% to $3,825 per contract from $3,350 for May 2021. Prices rallied in recent session on concerns about tightening global grain supplies triggered short-covering and fund-driven buying. The domestic 2020-21 soyabean crop would at best be 100 lakh tonnes, far less than the government estimate of 137 lt. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean dropped -10 Rupees to 7224 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.19% to settled at 79165 while prices up 316 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 6986 and below same could see a test of 6808 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7277, a move above could see prices testing 7390.
Trading Ideas:
* Soyabean trading range for the day is 6808-7390.
* Soyabean prices gained tracking rise in overseas prices as global supply tightens, and demand persists.
* Exporters sold 120,000 tonnes of new crop soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations, the USDA said.
* The domestic 2020-21 soyabean crop would at best be 100 lakh tonnes, far less than the government estimate of 137 lt.
* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean dropped -10 Rupees to 7224 Rupees per 100 kgs.
Ref.Soyaoil
Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled up by 1.59% at 1400.4 tracking rise in overseas prices amid tightening global vegetable oil supplies. Fresh export demand lent support. The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 132,000 tonnes of U.S. new-crop soybeans to China. However upside seen limited as summer oilseed crop sowing progress is very good as on date. There is no impact of COVID-19 pandemic situation on progress of area coverage under summer crops in the country. Oilseeds 10.45 lakh ha area against 9.03 lakh ha area of last year, thus increase in area coverage by 1.41 lakh ha. Total vegetable oil imports rose marginally to 9,80,243 tonne in March 2021, compared to 9,55,422 tonne in the year-ago period. Support also seen due to low stocks, a slow recovery in output and higher global use in biofuel production. The U.S. Department of Agriculture's plantings forecast for 2021 fell below most trade expectations. Export of oilmeals jumped 205% year-on-year in February to 393,309 tonne, compared with 128,761 tonne, according to data compiled by the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEA). The overall export of oilmeals during April 2020 to February 2021 recovered sharply and stood at 3,358,649 tonne provisionally, against 2,256,614 tonne during the same period of the previous year, up by 49%, according to the association. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1443.3 Rupees per 10 kgs.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 6.59% to settled at 34695 while prices up 21.9 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1382 and below same could see a test of 1364 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1425, a move above could see prices testing 1450.
Trading Ideas:
* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1364-1450.
* Ref soyoil ended with gains tracking rise in overseas prices amid tightening global vegetable oil supplies.
* The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 132,000 tonnes of U.S. new-crop soybeans to China.
* However upside seen limited as summer oilseed crop sowing progress is very good as on date.
* At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1443.3 Rupees per 10 kgs.
Crude palm Oil
Crude palm Oil yesterday settled up by 1.71% at 1174.5 on short covering as global commodity prices are expected to stay firm around current levels in 2021 after recovering in the first quarter buoyed by strong economic growth, the World Bank said. However pressure seen in recent sessions amid fears of weaker demand from India as the world's top vegetable oil importer battles a surge in coronavirus infections. India's palm oil imports in March jumped 57% year on year as refiners increased purchases of the tropical oil to reduce expensive sunflower oil imports. Malaysia's end-March palm oil stocks jumped more than expected to a four-month top, boosted by higher imports and production, but a surge in exports kept domestic supply in check, data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board showed. Indonesia has set its crude palm oil reference price higher in May at $1,110 a tonne, an official at the country's economic ministry said. This compares with April's reference price of $1,093.83. This means that export taxes for crude palm oil in May will be higher at $144 per tonne, while export levies for the edible oil will be unchanged at $255 per tonne. In spot market, Crude palm oil gained by 23.8 Rupees to end at 1240.3 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.12% to settled at 5638 while prices up 19.8 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 1159.4 and below same could see a test of 1144.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1194.2, a move above could see prices testing 1213.9.
Trading Ideas:
* CPO trading range for the day is 1144.3-1213.9.
* Crude palm oil gains on short covering as global commodity prices are expected to stay firm around current levels in 2021
* However pressure seen in recent sessions amid fears of weaker demand from India amid a surge in coronavirus infections.
* India's palm oil imports in March jumped 57% year on year as refiners increased purchases of the tropical oil to reduce expensive sunflower oil imports.
* In spot market, Crude palm oil gained by 23.8 Rupees to end at 1240.3 Rupees.
Mustard Seed
Mustard Seed yesterday settled up by 5.34% at 7115 lifted by concerns about near-term short supplies and by strength in soyabean prices. Prices rallied in recent sessions as crushing as increased due to rise in mustard oil demand. A total of 1.2 million tonnes of mustard crushing occurred in the country in March 2021 compared to 5.50 lakh tonnes in the month of February. Whereas, the stock of mustard with farmers is estimated to be 62.50 lakh tonnes and processors and stockists have a stock of six lakh tonnes of mustard. 100% Rapeseed Mustard has been harvested in the states of Rajasthan, UP, MP, WB, Jharkhand, Gujarat, Chhattisgarh, Odisha and Assam. Pressure also seen after SOPA, MOPA and SEA have written a letter to SEBI to curb futures, as there is speculation in it and MOPA has said that a six percent circuit instead of four percent is making it difficult to run oil mills as prices are changing rapidly, so it should be reduced to two per cent. The arrival of mustard was 4.50 lakh tonne while in March it reached 17.7 million tonne. India mustard output this year is projected at 104.27 lakh tonnes. However, the Central Organisation for Oil Industry and Trade (COOIT) and the Mustard Oil Producers' Association (MOPA) have estimated the production at 89.50 lakh tonnes. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices dropped -206 Rupees to end at 7325 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.79% to settled at 68710 while prices up 361 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 6908 and below same could see a test of 6700 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7236, a move above could see prices testing 7356.
Trading Ideas:
* Rmseed trading range for the day is 6700-7356.
* Mustard seed prices gained lifted by concerns about near-term short supplies and by strength in soyabean prices.
* Prices rallied in recent sessions as crushing as increased due to rise in mustard oil demand.
* COOIT and MOPA have estimated the production at 89.50 lakh tonnes.
* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices dropped -206 Rupees to end at 7325 Rupees per 100 kg.
Turmeric
Turmeric yesterday settled up by 1.38% at 7920 as support seen after preliminary data showed turmeric exports gained by 5% on year on year basis to 13,026 tons against 12,462 tons in March 2020. However this year export growth is seen limited due to over 40% rise in turmeric prices. Prices also seen supported on export orders to Bangladesh, besides domestic demand and projections of lower production. Prices have increased in view of the closure of physical markets in Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Maharashtra for nearly two weeks. According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare’s first advance estimate of horticultural crops, turmeric production is projected to be 11.06 lakh tonnes (lt) this season (July 2020-June 2021) compared with 11.53 lt the previous season. The crop this year is at least 20 per cent lower as unseasonal rains affected the crop in Telangana, Karnataka and Maharashtra. Arrivals have been sluggish proving that the projections of the lower crop are correct. Arrivals so far this year been 10.15 lakh bags (50 kg each) against 11.50 lakh bags last year and 14 lakh bags in 2019. In places such as Nanded in Maharashtra, arrivals are at least 40 per cent lower. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7673.55 Rupees dropped -21.45 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.65% to settled at 8430 while prices up 108 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7832 and below same could see a test of 7742 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8000, a move above could see prices testing 8078.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7742-8078.
* Turmeric prices gained as support seen after preliminary data showed turmeric exports gained by 5%
* Prices also seen supported on export orders to Bangladesh, besides domestic demand and projections of lower production.
* Prices have increased in view of the closure of physical markets in Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Maharashtra for nearly two weeks.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7673.55 Rupees dropped -21.45 Rupees.
Jeera
Jeera yesterday settled up by 0.76% at 13870 on short covering tracking gains in other agri commodities after prices remained under pressure in recent sessions as there is pressure on the supply of new crops in the spot markets and demand will be affected due to the lockdown amid resurgence in corona virus cases in many countries. Pressure seen after update in Gujarat and Rajasthan mandis, the arrival of cumin has increased by 65.28% during the current marketing year (February-January) 2021-22. The total arrival in both the states from February 1 to March 31, 2021 was 136031.18 tonnes as compared to 82300.31 tonnes at the same time last year. Preliminary data showed for March 2021 showed jeera exports gained by 92% on year on year basis to 37,326 tons against 19,406 tons in March 2020. In 2020 March exports of Cumin were less because of boarder tensions with China. According to the Union Government's Ministry of Consumer Affairs, the arrival of cumin in the mandis of Gujarat from 1 February to 31 March 2021 was 121063.57 tonnes while it was was 79604.84 tonnes from February to 31 March 2020. In this way, there was a 52.08 percent increase in arrivals. The Federation of Indian Spice Stakeholders has estimated the production of cumin from the country to be 478520 tonnes this year. This production was 535500 tonnes in the Rabi season 2020. This production of cumin is 10.6 percent is less than in the year 2020. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -21.9 Rupees to end at 14054.55 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.32% to settled at 5649 while prices up 105 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 13780 and below same could see a test of 13695 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 13915, a move above could see prices testing 13965.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 13695-13965.
* Jeera prices gained on short covering tracking gains in other agri commodities after prices remained under pressure in recent sessions as there is pressure on the supply of new crops
* In Gujarat and Rajasthan mandis, the arrival of cumin has increased by 65.28% during the current marketing year
* Preliminary data showed for March 2021 showed jeera exports gained by 92% on year on year basis to 37,326 tons
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -21.9 Rupees to end at 14054.55 Rupees per 100 kg.
Cotton
Cotton yesterday settled up by 1.1% at 22050 tracking rise in ICE cotton prices rose to their highest since early March on persistent worries that unfavorable weather in key growing regions may hurt the natural fiber crop. The main reason is the weather, particularly in the Southern plains. Demand is better than what the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates are saying. The U.S. Department of Agriculture's weekly export sales report showed net sales of 103,100 running bales for 2020/2021, down 16% from the previous week and 44% from the prior 4-week average. Support also seen as CAI estimated cotton exports to increase by 20% to 60 lakh bales in the 2020-21 season that begins in October, mainly due to higher international prices. CAI increases the production estimate to 360 lakh bales on higher output in North India. The second wave of Covid-19 is taking its toll on Gujarat’s textile industry which saw at least 25% decline in fabric production in the past 15-20 days. Since the beginning of April, production of fabric has gone down in the state from around 5.50 crore metres to almost 4 crore metres per day. Demand from textile traders has gone down drastically. If the situation doesn’t improve in next fortnight period, production of fabric would further plummet to as low as 50%. In spot market, Cotton gained by 90 Rupees to end at 22050 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 5.81% to settled at 8828 while prices up 240 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 21790 and below same could see a test of 21540 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 22260, a move above could see prices testing 22480.
Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 21540-22480.
* Cotton gains tracking rise in ICE cotton prices on persistent worries that unfavorable weather may hurt the natural fiber crop.
* CAI estimated cotton exports to increase by 20% to 60 lakh bales in the 2020-21 season that begins in October
* USDA’s weekly export sales report showed net sales of 103,100 running bales for 2020/2021, down 16% from the previous week
* In spot market, Cotton gained by 90 Rupees to end at 22050 Rupees.
Chana
Chana yesterday settled up by 0.72% at 5330 on expectations of better demand during the forthcoming festival season amid lower inventories. Support also seen as the concern of unseasonal rain in the early part of this year has stoked up crop damage fears in some of the northern states. In addition, the government has spruced up procurement through minimum support price as higher arrivals at major markets have pulled down spot prices below the ₹5,100 per quintal. Chana arrivals last month increased three-fold to 6.4 lakh tonnes. The government agency Nafed is learnt to have procured 1.24 lakh tonnes of chana in Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Telangana, Karnataka and Gujarat. As per Ministry of Agriculture data, chana sowing in this Rabi season crossed 112 lakh ha, which is up by about five per cent from same period last year. The second advance estimates of Ministry of Agriculture pegs chana production at a record high of 116 lakh tonnes in 2020-21 season (111 lakh tonnes). In Delhi spot market, chana dropped by -5.4 Rupees to end at 5291 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -8.06% to settled at 98290 while prices up 38 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 5244 and below same could see a test of 5159 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5381, a move above could see prices testing 5433.
Trading Ideas:
* Chana trading range for the day is 5159-5433.
* Chana gained on expectations of better demand during the forthcoming festival season amid lower inventories.
* Total summer crops have been sown on 73.76 lakh ha area against 60.67 lakh ha during the corresponding period of last year
* Sowing reported under Pulses 12.75 lakh ha against 6.45 lakh ha area of last year i.e. increase in area coverage by 6.30 lakh ha.
* In Delhi spot market, chana dropped by -5.4 Rupees to end at 5291 Rupees per 100 kgs.
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