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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.13% at 47634 as prices were subdued as stocks marched higher and U.S. bond yields firmed, overshadowing a dovish European Central Bank policy outlook and a softer dollar. Benchmark treasury yields rebounded to a near one-week high and stocks extended their recovery as fears over the economic impact of the Delta COVID-19 variant ebbed, denting the appeal of safe haven gold.

The European Central Bank in a policy meeting pledged to keep interest rates at record lows for even longer to boost sluggish inflation. The U.S. Federal Reserve's policy meet is next week and follows comments from its Chair Jerome Powell which suggested that the central bank would remain accommodative despite recent spikes in inflation readings.

Investors largely ignored data earlier showing a surprise rise in U.S. jobless claims last week. Physical gold demand in India and other major hubs weakened as consumers were put off by a rise in the yellow metal's price, while premiums for bullion also retreated. Dealers were charging a premium of up to $1.5 an ounce over official domestic prices inclusive of the 10.75% import and 3% sales levies, down from last week's premium of $3. In top consumer China, premiums were at about $1 an ounce over the global benchmark spot prices compared with last week's $3-$4 premium.

Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -9.44% to settled at 5485 while prices up 61 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 47394 and below same could see a test of 47153 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 47783, a move above could see prices testing 47931.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 47153-47931.
* Gold prices were subdued as stocks marched higher and U.S. bond yields firmed, overshadowing a dovish ECB policy outlook and a softer dollar.
* U.S. weekly jobless claims rise unexpectedly
* ECB pledges to keep interest rates low for even longer

Silver

Silver yesterday settled up by 0.35% at 67374 as an unexpected increase in US jobless claims hit the dollar. The European Central Bank left interest rates and asset purchases unchanged as expected and tweaked its forward guidance to reflect the new inflation target. Policymakers now expect interest rates to remain at their present or lower levels until inflation reaches 2% well ahead of the end of its projection horizon and acknowledged it could rise moderately above 2% for some time.

The International Monetary Fund said it would revamp its concessional lending programs to better support low-income countries during the COVID-19 pandemic and recovery, and raised the prospect of limited sales of IMF gold to boost its lending capability. The IMF said its executive board last week backed reforms that include raising the access limits for concessional financing for low-income countries by 45%; eliminating access limits for the poorest countries with eligible programs; and maintaining zero-percent interest rates on such loans.

U.S. home sales rebounded in June after four straight monthly declines, but the pace was moderate as higher prices and low inventory remained constraints. Existing home sales increased 1.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.86 million units last month, the National Association of Realtors said. Sales rose in the Northeast, West and Midwest.

They were unchanged in the densely populated South. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6.27% to settled at 12133 while prices up 237 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 66820 and below same could see a test of 66266 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 67718, a move above could see prices testing 68062.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 66266-68062.
* Silver prices gained as an unexpected increase in US jobless claims hit the dollar.
* IMF said it would revamp its concessional lending programs to better support low-income countries during the COVID-19 pandemic and recovery
* U.S. existing home sales rebound moderately in June

Crude oil 

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 1.73% at 5343 as investors shrugged off an increase in supply and continued to bet on the swift economic recovery despite the surge in cases of Covid-19 delta variant.

OPEC+ decided to increase overall crude production by 400,000 barrels per day on a monthly basis starting August 2021 until phasing out the 5.8 million bpd production adjustment. U.S. crude stocks rose while gasoline and distillate inventories fell last week, the Energy Information Administration said. Crude inventories rose by 2.1 million barrels in week to July 16 to 439.7 million barrels.

Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub fell by 1.3 million barrels in the last week, EIA said. Refinery crude runs fell by 86,000 barrels per day in the last week, EIA said. Refinery utilization rates fell by 0.4 percentage points, in the week. U.S. commercial crude imports last week rose to 7.1 million barrels per day (bpd), their highest since July 2020, boosting net crude imports to their highest since December 2020, data from the Energy Information Administration showed.

U.S. Midwest crude stockpiles fell 2.2 million barrels to 119 million barrels, their lowest since October 2018, according to the data. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 26.41% to settled at 6227 while prices up 91 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 5254 and below same could see a test of 5164 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5397, a move above could see prices testing 5450.

Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 5164-5450.
* Crude oil prices gained as investors shrugged off an increase in supply and continued to bet on the swift economic recovery
* U.S. crude stocks rose while gasoline and distillate inventories fell last week, the Energy Information Administration said.
* U.S. commercial crude imports jump to highest since July 2020 – EIA.

Natural gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 0.78% at 296.4 amid forecasts for hotter weather and higher air conditioning demand next week than previously expected. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said U.S. utilities added 49 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended July 16. Last week's injection boosted stockpiles to 2.678 trillion cubic feet (tcf), or 6.2% below the five-year average of 2.854 tcf for this time of year. Data provider Refinitiv said U.S. output in the Lower 48 states slipped to 91.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in July, due mostly to pipeline problems in West Virginia earlier in the month.

That compares with an average of 92.2 bcfd in June and an all-time high of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019. Refinitiv projected average gas demand, including exports, would rise from 92.4 bcfd this week to 95.3 bcfd next week as the weather turns seasonally hotter. The forecast for next week was higher than Refinitiv predicted on Wednesday on expectations power generators will burn more gas to meet rising air conditioning demand.

The amount of gas flowing to U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants has averaged 10.8 bcfd so far in July, up from 10.1 bcfd in June but still below the record 11.5 bcfd in April. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -35.19% to settled at 8287 while prices up 2.3 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 291.7 and below same could see a test of 286.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 299.6, a move above could see prices testing 302.7.

Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 286.9-302.7.
* Natural prices gained amid forecasts for hotter weather and higher air conditioning demand next week than previously expected.
* EIA said U.S. utilities added 49 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended July 16.
* Speculators, meanwhile, cut their net long futures and options positions for the first time in seven weeks as buyers cashed in some of their gains.

Copper

Copper yesterday settled up by 1.55% at 735.85 as investors appeared to shrug off worries over rising coronavirus cases worldwide and as China, the world's top metals consumer, decided to release less reserve metals than expected. China will sell another 30,000 tonnes of copper, 90,000 tonnes of aluminium, and 50,000 tonnes of zinc from its state reserves on July 29, less than the market has anticipated.

The auction marked the second sale by China this month as the government aims to rein in skyrocketing commodity prices. Meanwhile, a new study found two doses of Pfizer or AstraZeneca's COVID-19 vaccine are nearly as effective against the highly transmissible Delta coronavirus variant, which has sparked concerns over economic recovery recently, as they are against the previously dominant Alpha variant.

The global world refined copper market showed a deficit of 75,000 tonnes in April, compared with 13,000 tonnes deficit in March, the International Copper Study Group said in its latest monthly bulletin. For the first 4 months of the year, the market was in a 69,000 tonnes surplus compared with a 110,000 tonnes surplus in the same period a year earlier, the ICSG said.

World refined copper output in April was 2.07 million tonnes, while consumption was 2.14 million tonnes. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -9.07% to settled at 2686 while prices up 11.25 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 728.7 and below same could see a test of 721.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 740.2, a move above could see prices testing 744.4.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 721.4-744.4.
* Copper rose as investors appeared to shrug off worries over rising coronavirus cases worldwide and China decided to release less reserve metals than expected.
* Copper market in 75,000 tonnes deficit in Apr 2021 – ICSG
* World refined copper output in April was 2.07 million tonnes, while consumption was 2.14 million tonnes.
 

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled up by 0.41% at 242.75 as the global zinc market was undersupplied by 17,900 tonnes in May following a revised deficit of 13,800 tonnes in April, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed.

Previously, the ILZSG had reported a deficit of 26,900 tonnes in April. During the first five months of 2021, the ILZSG data showed the market saw a surplus of 40,000 tonnes, down from a surplus of 335,000 tonnes in the same period of 2020. Around 13.5 million tonnes of zinc are produced and consumed each year.

China’s fiscal revenue growth is likely to slow significantly in the second half, compared with a 21.8% year-on-year jump in the first six months, a finance ministry official said. China’s economic recovery and rising domestic producer prices boosted fiscal revenue growth in the first half, Liu Jinyun told a news briefing. First-half tax revenue rose 22.5% from a year earlier, while non-tax revenue grew 17.4%, Liu said. Fiscal expenditures rose 4.5% in the first half from a year earlier, Liu said.

Xiang Zhongxin, a second ministry official, told the same briefing that local governments had issued a net 1.0144 trillion yuan in special bonds by the end of June. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -12.23% to settled at 1357 while prices up 1 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 241.8 and below same could see a test of 240.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 243.7, a move above could see prices testing 244.5.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 240.7-244.5.
* Zinc gained as the global zinc market was undersupplied by 17,900 tonnes in May following a revised deficit of 13,800 tonnes in April.
* During the first five months of 2021, the ILZSG data showed the market saw a surplus of 40,000 tonnes, down from a surplus of 335,000 tonnes in 2020.
* China's fiscal revenue growth likely to slow sharply in H2 - ministry official

Nickel

Nickel yesterday settled up by 1.93% at 1418.4 as the global nickel market deficit widened to 21,300 tonnes in May compared a shortfall of 20,400 tonnes in April, data from the International Nickel Study Group (INSG) showed. During the first five months of the year, the nickel market saw a deficit of 61,200 tonnes compared with a surplus of 61,000 tonnes in the same period last year, the Lisbon-based INSG added.

U.S. home sales rebounded in June after four straight monthly declines, but the pace was moderate as higher prices and low inventory remained constraints. Existing home sales increased 1.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.86 million units last month, the National Association of Realtors said.

The National Development and Reform Commission held a national price work conference, which focused on strengthening the price testing of bulk commodities, ensuring the supply, and stabilising prices of important livelihood commodities. China’s fiscal revenue growth is likely to slow significantly in the second half, compared with a 21.8% year-on-year jump in the first six months, a finance ministry official said. China’s economic recovery and rising domestic producer prices boosted fiscal revenue growth in the first half, Liu Jinyun told a news briefing.

First-half tax revenue rose 22.5% from a year earlier, while non-tax revenue grew 17.4%, Liu said. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -7.75% to settled at 1191 while prices up 26.9 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1399 and below same could see a test of 1379.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1429, a move above could see prices testing 1439.7.

Trading Ideas:
* Nickel trading range for the day is 1379.7-1439.7.
* Nickel gained as the global nickel market deficit widened to 21,300 tonnes in May compared a shortfall of 20,400 tonnes in April.
* During the first five months of the year, the nickel market saw a deficit of 61,200 tonnes compared with a surplus of 61,000 tonnes in 2021
* U.S. home sales rebounded in June after four straight monthly declines, but the pace was moderate.

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 0.46% at 196.15 as the inventories of aluminium ingots was still going down. The social inventories of aluminium ingots declined 23,000 mt to 809,000 mt. National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration announced to release 90,000 mt of aluminium reserves in the second batch.

Attention needs to be paid to the progress of power curtailment, the floods in Henan, inventory inflexion points, and long-short. On the other hand, expectations of overseas interest rate hikes and domestic regulatory measures is forcing the prices down.

Aluminium prices are expected to move between 19,000-19,300 yuan/mt. Global primary aluminium output fell to 5.549 million tonnes in June from revised 5.75 million tonnes in May, data from the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) showed. Estimated Chinese production fell to 3.245 million tonnes in June from revised 3.35 million tonnes in May, it added. The current aluminium consumption showed signs of weakening, but the inventories of aluminium ingots was still going down.

Attention needs to be paid to the progress of power curtailment, the floods in Henan, inventory inflexion points, and long-short sentiment changes. Developing Asia’s economic growth this year will be slightly lower than previously projected, the Manila-based Asian Development Bank said, citing the resurgence of COVID-19 infections in countries. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -15.57% to settled at 1117 while prices up 0.9 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 194.8 and below same could see a test of 193.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 197.4, a move above could see prices testing 198.7.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 193.5-198.7.
* Aluminium prices gained as the inventories of aluminium ingots was still going down.
* The social inventories of aluminium ingots declined 23,000 mt to 809,000 mt.
* National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration announced to release 90,000 mt of aluminium reserves in the second batch.
 

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -1.23% at 946.3 as average yield in Barabanki is improved by 5-6 kgs per acre due to better weather. Support also seen due to the rotting of the crop due to stagnant water in the field.

The past few weeks have been painful as heavy rains in the pre-monsoon season have damaged the mentha crop which was ready for harvesting. Due to drowning in the water, the rows have started to wither. With the harvesting of the crop, oil extraction work has also started. However upside seen limited as arrivals likely to increase due to favourable weather conditions. Daily arrivals should gradually pick up to 400-500 drums in next 7-10 days.

Last week, prices rallied. The Lucknow-based Central Institute of Medicinal and Aromatic Plants estimates that this adverse effect of rains on the crop is expected to reduce production by 30% in the last two weeks. The crop is prone to rain because the leaves of the crop start falling due to waterlogging in the field. Most of the farmers have planted Mentha crops and this rain is not less than acid for 50 percent of Mentha crop.

In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -1.5 Rupees to end at 1076.1 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -7.66% to settled at 868 while prices down -11.8 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 940.9 and below same could see a test of 935.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 951, a move above could see prices testing 955.6.

Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 935.4-955.6.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -1.5 Rupees to end at 1076.1 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil prices dropped as average yield in Barabanki improved
* Prices gained in recent sessions due to the rotting of the crop due to stagnant water in the field.
* The past few weeks have been painful as heavy rains in the pre-monsoon season have damaged the mentha crop which was ready for harvesting.

Soyabean

Soyabean yesterday settled up by 0.02% at 8129 amid tightening inventory situation in the country and amid slower pace of sowing. Government reports indicate that the weakening of rains has impacted the sowing of crops in Maharashtra, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Haryana and Punjab.

Area sown under soybean was lagging behind last year’s area by nearly 11.05 per cent. Planting of overall oilseeds, including soybean was at 11.2 million hectares, down from 12.6 million hectares the previous year. A “break” in the monsoon has affected Kharif sowing in many parts of the country this year. However, area under soybean planting is likely to increase by 5-7% across the country this kharif season despite speculation in the market over the shortage of seeds.

Farmers, however, are keeping their fingers crossed due to the break in monsoon and hope for a revival of the monsoon to ensure a good crop. In the 2020 kharif season, soybean cultivation took place on 120 lakh hectares and the yield was about 105 lakh tonne. China's soybean imports in June hit their third-highest monthly level on record, customs data showed, boosted by a jump in shipments from Brazil. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 336 Rupees to 8558 Rupees per 100 kgs.

Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.8% to settled at 42000 while prices up 2 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 8015 and below same could see a test of 7900 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8270, a move above could see prices testing 8410.

Trading Ideas:
* Soyabean trading range for the day is 7900-8410.
* Soyabean prices gained amid tightening inventory situation in the country and amid slower pace of sowing.
* Government reports indicate that the weakening of rains has impacted the sowing of crops in Maharashtra, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Haryana and Punjab.
* Area sown under soybean was lagging behind last year’s area by nearly 11.05 per cent.
* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained  336 Rupees to 8558 Rupees per 100 kgs.

Soya Oil

Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled down by -0.48% at 1372.4 on profit booking after prices gained supported by lingering concerns over tight supply. China raised its forecast on imports of edible oils in 2020/21 marketing year, on increase of palm oil and sunflower oil shipments, the country's agriculture ministry said. China's 2020/21 edible oils imports were seen at 10.23 million tonnes, up 900,000 tonnes from last month's forecast, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said in its monthly crop report.

Estimates on output, planting acreage and imports of corn, soybeans and cotton in the 2021/22 year remain unchanged from a month ago, according to the ministry. China's soybean acreage in 2021/22 year was seen at 9.347 million hectares, down 5.4% from 9.882 million hectares in the previous year, according to the report. India has slashed the base import price of palm oil and soyoil, the government said in a statement, as prices fell in the overseas market.

India exported 5.31 lakh tonnes of oilmeals in the first two months of the fiscal 2021-22 against 3.50 lakh tonnes in the same period a year ago, recording a growth of 52 per cent. BV Mehta, Executive Director of Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEA), said the export of oilmeals increased sharply on the back of shipments of rapeseed meal during the period.

At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1394.1 Rupees per 10 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -8.27% to settled at 32315 while prices down -6.6 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1362 and below same could see a test of 1351 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1387, a move above could see prices testing 1401.

Trading Ideas:
* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1351-1401.
* Ref soyoil dropped on profit booking after prices gained supported by lingering concerns over tight supply.
* China raised its forecast on imports of edible oils in 2020/21 marketing year, on increase of palm oil and sunflower oil shipments.
* China's 2020/21 edible oils imports were seen at 10.23 million tonnes, up 900,000 tonnes from last month's forecast
* At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1394.1 Rupees per 10 kgs.

Crude palm Oil

Crude palm Oil yesterday settled up by 0.57% at 1111.8 amid fears mounted about tightening global supplies due to a labour shortage in Malaysia and dry weather in several major edible oil producing countries. Support also seen on higher exports during July 1-15 and expectations of a sluggish rise in production.

Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for July 1-15 rose 3.8% to 682,426 tonnes from June 1-15, cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance said. Dry weather in the United States and Canada is curbing soybean and canola yields. Investors are also expecting palm oil production in July to be below potential despite the peak production season due to a labour shortage. European Union palm oil imports in the 2021/22 season fell to 80,608 tonnes versus 214,613 tonnes in 2020/21, European Commission data showed.

Plantations in Malaysia are entering the seasonal higher production months, but analysts are anticipating a small uptick in July output as a labour shortage continues to hamper harvesting. India's palm oil and soyoil imports plunged by nearly a quarter in June from a month ago, a leading trade body said in a statement, as refiners postponed purchases anticipating a reduction in the import tax.

In spot market, Crude palm oil dropped by -2.5 Rupees to end at 1122 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.15% to settled at 3917 while prices up 6.3 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 1103.4 and below same could see a test of 1095 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1119.1, a move above could see prices testing 1126.4.

Trading Ideas:
* CPO trading range for the day is 1095-1126.4.
* Crude palm oil prices gained amid fears mounted about tightening global supplies due to a labour shortage in Malaysia.
* Export shipments from Malaysia during July 1-20 fell 7.9% to 863,586 tonnes compared with the same period in June
* The Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers' Association has estimated production during July 1-15 fell by 3.5% from the corresponding period in June
* In spot market, Crude palm oil dropped  by -2.5 Rupees to end at 1122 Rupees.

Mustard Seed

Mustard Seed yesterday settled up by 0.54% at 7464 as the arrival of mustard in the mandis has decreased at all places in the country. U.S. rapeseed production is forecast to reach a record 1.8 million tons on record area and trend yield. Pressure also seen as Canada rapeseed production is projected at 20.5 million tons, up 1.5 million on greater area. U.S. rapeseed production is forecast to reach a record 1.8 million tons on record area and trend yield. Pressure also seen as Canada rapeseed production is projected at 20.5 million tons, up 1.5 million on greater area.

COOIT was against any reduction in import duties on edible oils but wanted the Centre to remove the GST of 5 per cent on mustard seed and oil as it will help farmers and consumers both. European Union rapeseed production is projected to show a modest gain in 2021/22 on increased planted area and improved yield but will remain below the levels observed from 2016 to 2018.

In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 51.5 Rupees to end at 7685.5 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.2% to settled at 45180 while prices up 40 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 7384 and below same could see a test of 7304 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7546, a move above could see prices testing 7628.

Trading Ideas:
* Rmseed trading range for the day is 7304-7628.
* Mustard seed prices gained tracking firmness in overseas prices as drought continued across the Canadian Prairies, threatening crop yields.
* The arrival of mustard in the mandis has decreased at all places in the country.
* U.S. rapeseed production is forecast to reach a record 1.8 million tons on record area and trend yield.
* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 51.5 Rupees to end at 7685.5 Rupees per 100 kg.

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -1.67% at 7420 on profit booking after prices gained in recent sessions as turmeric crops were severely damaged in Parbhani and Hingole due to heavy rains. Support also seen on following export demand from Europe, Gulf countries and Bangladesh.

However upside seen limited as sentiment is weak and sluggish demand from local stockists amid poor quality arrivals in the market has led to the fall in prices. The curbs and lockdowns announced to control the second wave of Covid-19 pandemic affected trading. In Nizamabad APMC in Telangana, the modal price of the finger variety turmeric was quoted at ₹6,950 a quintal. Prices are up about ₹400 since the beginning of this month. At Bangalore in Karnataka, turmeric is quoted at ₹11,500 at the APMC yard with most markets closed in the State to control the Covid-19 pandemic.

In Tamil Nadu, too, the agricultural markets are closed as part of the lockdown to tackle the pandemic. Demand for exports to Bangladesh and Europe are helping turmeric prices to gain. Exporters are looking to pick up stocks from Nanded in view of its quality. Turmeric has been in demand over the last two years as it is reported to be effective in medical use, particularly in combating Covid-19.

In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7340 Rupees gained 22.15 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.2% to settled at 11615 while prices down -126 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7332 and below same could see a test of 7246 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7542, a move above could see prices testing 7666.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7246-7666.
* Turmeric dropped on profit booking after prices gained as turmeric crops were severely damaged in Parbhani and Hingoli due to heavy rains.
* Support also seen on following export demand from Europe, Gulf countries and Bangladesh.
* However upside seen limited as sentiment is weak and sluggish demand from local stockists amid poor quality arrivals in the market has led to the fall in prices.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7340 Rupees gained 22.15 Rupees.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 0.26% at 13580 as only 45-50 percent of the total production has come to the market. In recent sessions, prices dropped amid excess supply and as demand is likely to remain subdued on weak buying from local and overseas markets.

Farmers need money to start sowing the kharif crop and they are bringing huge stocks to sell in the market after the easing of Covid-related restrictions. In the benchmark market Unjha, 7,000 bags (1 bag = 55 kg) arrived yesterday as against 10,000 bags. As India struggles against curbing the Corona pandemic, exports markets have turned subdued. The importers prefer to wait for the situation to normalize before negotiating for fresh deals.

They rather prefer to clear their older stocks first and presently they feel that the older inventory may be sufficient to balance the existing demand for next few weeks easily. The new season arrivals shall continue with good numbers hence there will be ample availability in the market.

However from a broader perspective, India’s exports outlook has brightened while crop is expected to be lower versus year on year. Also, the nearest export competitors i.e. Turkey and Syria may not supply much to the world due to lower exportable surplus.

In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 66.65 Rupees to end at 13757.15 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.66% to settled at while prices up 35 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 13475 and below same could see a test of 13370 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 13685, a move above could see prices testing 13790.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 13370-13790.
* Jeera prices gained as only 45-50 percent of the total production has come to the market.
* However upside seen limited amid excess supply and as demand is likely to remain subdued on weak buying from local and overseas markets.
* Farmers need money to start sowing the kharif crop and they are bringing huge stocks to sell in the market after the easing of Covid-related restrictions.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 66.65 Rupees to end at 13757.15 Rupees per 100 kg.
 

Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled up by 1.33% at 26610 as the area of cotton cultivation in Marathwada has reduced during this kharif season as more farmers have opted for soyabean over the traditional cash crop, implying a gradual shift in the cropping pattern in the region. Overall area under sowing for Cotton covered is 8.05 lakh ha more than compared to normal of corresponding week.

About 98.38 lakh ha area coverage has been reported compared to normal of corresponding week (90.33 lakh ha). Cotton sowing has taken place only on 67% of the expected area of 6.97 lakh hectare in the Aurangabad division and 65% of the expected area (3.58 lakh hectare) in the Latur division.

India’s cotton ending stocks could be lower than 75 lakh bales (170 kg each) in the current season to September as domestic demand has picked up. But some estimates are pegging them higher than 100 lakh bales against a record 120-plus lakh bales last season. CCI, which had nearly 207 lakh bales of cotton stocks, could be left with 18 lakh bales by the end of the season, the CMD said, adding that most of the sales were meant for domestic consumption.

In spot market, Cotton gained by 370 Rupees to end at 26430 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -15.17% to settled at 1840 while prices up 350 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 26270 and below same could see a test of 25940 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 26910, a move above could see prices testing 27220.

Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 25940-27220.
* Cotton gained as the area of cotton cultivation in Marathwada has reduced during this kharif season as more farmers have opted for soyabean
* Overall area under Cotton covered is 8.05 lakh ha more than compared to normal of corresponding week.
* About 98.38 lakh ha area coverage has been reported compared to normal of corresponding week.
* In spot market, Cotton gained  by 370 Rupees to end at 26430 Rupees.

Chana

Chana yesterday settled up by 0.32% at 5042 as support seen as the Central Government has relaxed stock limits for Millers and wholesalers and exempted importers from the same. Amid tremendous pressure from the sector, the government increased the permissible stock quantity of pulses allowed for wholesalers and millers with a complete exemption for importers.

Under the revised stock limit, wholesalers can now keep 500 metric tonnes (MT) of pulses at a time provided the quantity of any one pulse does not exceed 200 MT. Under the old order, the maximum stock that wholesalers could keep was 200 MT, with the quantity of a single pulse restricted to a maximum of 100 MT.

It may be noted that Government of India has been making continuous efforts to crackdown on prices of essential commodities like pulses and had taken various measures like stock declaration of pulses by the stockholders of different categories on 14thMay,2021 and thereafter imposition of stock limits on pulses on 2nd July,2021. Overall area under sowing for Kharif Pulses Crop area covered is 10.56 lakh ha less compared to normal of corresponding week. About 70.64 lakh ha area coverage has been reported compared to normal of corresponding week (81.20 lakh ha).

In Delhi spot market, chana gained by 200 Rupees to end at 5000 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.78% to settled at 112050 while prices up 16 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 4999 and below same could see a test of 4957 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5111, a move above could see prices testing 5181.

Trading Ideas:
* Chana trading range for the day is 4957-5181.
* Chana gains as support seen as Centre has relaxed stock limits for Millers and wholesalers and exempted importers from the same.
* Overall area under sowing for Kharif Pulses Crop area covered is 10.56 lakh ha less compared to normal of corresponding week.
* About 70.64 lakh ha area coverage has been reported compared to normal of corresponding week (81.20 lakh ha).
* In Delhi spot market, chana gained  by 200 Rupees to end at 5000 Rupees per 100 kgs.

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