Jeera trading range for the day is 13305-13815 - Kedia Advisory
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Gold
Gold yesterday settled down by -0.57% at 48865 as prices remain under pressure but within their recent range as the Federal Reserve stands pat on monetary policy, even as it continues to signal that they are ready to do more if needed. As expected the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at the zero-bound range but noted that economic activity has moderated since its last meeting in December. “The COVID-19 pandemic is causing tremendous human and economic hardship across the United States and around the world. The pace of the recovery in economic activity and employment has moderated in recent months, with weakness concentrated in the sectors most adversely affected by the pandemic,” the statement said. In the central bank’s latest monetary policy statement, it continued to reiterate uncertainty in economic activity. However it did not provide any new guidance on monetary policy. "The path of the economy will depend significantly on the course of the virus, including progress on vaccinations. The ongoing public health crisis continues to weigh on economic activity, employment, and inflation, and poses considerable risks to the economic outlook," the statement. China's net gold imports via Hong Kong in December jumped nearly 71% from the previous month, Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department data showed. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -10.91% to settled at 3747 while prices down -278 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 48590 and below same could see a test of 48316 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 49059, a move above could see prices testing 49254.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 48316-49254.
* Gold prices remain under pressure but within their recent range as the Federal Reserve stands pat on monetary policy
* Meanwhile, U.S. President Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion stimulus plan has been met with objections from Republicans over the price tag.
* China's gold imports via Hong Kong jump 71% in December
Silver
Silver yesterday settled remain unchangeby 0% at 66536 as the dollar edged higher as investors waited for comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. U.S. stimulus talks also remain in focus after U.S. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said Democrats will move forward on President Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief plan without Republican support if necessary. Profits at China's industrial firms grew for the eighth straight month in December, suggesting a sustained recovery as the manufacturing sector rapidly emerged from its COVID-19 slump. Profits surged 20.1% year-on-year in December to 707.11 billion yuan ($109.40 billion), after rising 15.5% in November, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data showed. China is the only major economy in the world to avoid a contraction in 2020, with gross domestic product up 2.3% for the full year, while many countries remain crippled by the pandemic. U.S. consumer confidence rose moderately in January while lingering concerns about the COVID-19 pandemic led to a further deterioration in households' perceptions of the labor market, raising the risk of a second straight month of job losses. But the survey from the Conference Board on Tuesday showed consumers more than willing to buy homes and automobiles in the next six months, indicating that the housing market and manufacturing industry will continue to underpin the economy. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.46% to settled at 11830 while prices remain unchanged 1 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 65512 and below same could see a test of 64489 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 67097, a move above could see prices testing 67659.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 64489-67659.
* Silver settled flat as the dollar edged higher as investors waited for comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
* U.S. stimulus talks also remain in focus after U.S. Senate Schumer said Democrats will move forward on President Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief plan
* Profits at China's industrial firms grew for the eighth straight month in December
Crude oil
Crude oil yesterday settled up by 1.41% at 3893 after industry data showed U.S. crude stockpiles fell unexpectedly last week and China, the world's second-biggest oil user, reported its lowest daily rise in COVID-19 cases, bolstering hopes of a pick-up in demand. OPEC+ compliance with pledged oil output curbs is averaging 85% so far in January, tanker tracker Petro-Logistics said, suggesting the group had improved its adherence to pledged supply curbs. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, a group known as OPEC+, agreed to increase output by 500,000 barrels per day in January as part of a plan to taper huge cuts made last year as the coronavirus pandemic hammered demand. India's crude oil imports rose to their highest level in over two years in December as easing of most of the coronavirus-led restrictions led to improved economic activity and higher fuel demand. Crude oil imports rose to 20.49 million tonnes last month, their highest since October 2018, data from the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC) of the Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas showed. Russian oil producers in the Western Siberian province of Yugra, the heartland of domestic oil output, are ready to restore production curtailed by a global deal, a local official told. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 60.73% to settled at 2247 while prices up 54 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 3828 and below same could see a test of 3764 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 3930, a move above could see prices testing 3968.
Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 3764-3968.
* Crude oil prices climbed after industry data showed U.S. crude stockpiles fell unexpectedly last week and China, reported its lowest daily rise in COVID-19 cases.
* Russia's oil heartland poised for rebound after output cuts
* OPEC+ Jan compliance with oil cuts reaches 85%
Nat.Gas
Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 6.9% at 199.8 on forecasts for colder weather and higher heating demand through mid February than previously expected. Data provider Refinitiv said output in the lower 48 U.S. states averaged 91.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in January. That compares with an eight-month high of 91.5 bcfd in December and an all-time monthly high of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019. Even though the weather outlook was colder than previously forecast, temperatures next week were still expected to be higher than this week. Refinitiv projected that milder weather would cause average gas demand, including exports, to slip from 129.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) this week to 126.6 bcfd next week. Those demand forecasts, however, were higher than Refinitiv's outlook. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants averaged 10.4 bcfd so far in January. Traders said that was down from December's 10.7 bcfd monthly record because flows to Cheniere Energy Inc's Sabine Pass plant in Louisiana and Freeport LNG's plant in Texas declined last week due to a combination of fog and pipeline maintenance. Despite the small decline in LNG exports, buyers around the world continue to purchase near record amounts of U.S. gas because prices in Europe and Asia remain much higher than in the United States. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 13.22% to settled at 9478 while prices up 12.9 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 193 and below same could see a test of 186.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 203.8, a move above could see prices testing 207.7.
Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 186.1-207.7.
* Natural gas rose on forecasts for colder weather and higher heating demand through mid February than previously expected.
* Data provider Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 U.S. states averaged 91.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in January.
* Refinitiv projected that milder weather would cause average gas demand, including exports, to fall from 128.4 bcfd this week to 122.8 bcfd next week.
Copper
Copper yesterday settled down by -1.93% at 598.5 hit by uncertainties about the outcome of a $1.9 trillion U.S. stimulus package proposed by new President Joe Biden, which is expected to boost demand for metals. Output in key producer countries such as Peru cratered over the second quarter of 2020 as lockdowns and quarantine measures caused many mines drastically to reduce operations. Recovery has been patchy. Peruvian mines had just about returned to normal run-rates by October, but output in Chile, the world's largest copper producer, started sliding in the third quarter after a robust first half of the year. Global mine output in the first 10 months of 2020 was still 0.5% lower than 2019 levels, according to the International Copper Study Group (ICSG). Treatment and refining charges, which are what a smelter levies for processing copper concentrates into refined metal, are the best indicator of what is going on in the opaque raw materials market. The global refined copper market showed a 155,000-tonne deficit in September compared with a 72,000-tonne deficit in August, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said in its latest monthly bulletin. For the first nine months of the year, the market was in a 387,000-tonne deficit compared with a 328,000-tonne deficit in the same period in 2019, the ICSG said. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.08% to settled at 3972 while prices down -11.8 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 590.8 and below same could see a test of 583.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 607.7, a move above could see prices testing 617.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 583.2-617.
* Copper prices edged down hit by uncertainties about the outcome of a $1.9 trillion U.S. stimulus package proposed by new President Joe Biden
* Global mine output in the first 10 months of 2020 was still 0.5% lower than 2019 levels
* Output in key producer countries such as Peru cratered over the second quarter of 2020
Zinc
Zinc yesterday settled down by -4.41% at 204.8 after stockpiles in exchange warehouses jumped ahead of a traditionally weak demand season in top consumer China. Zinc is now the worst performer year-to-date among the base metal complex on both exchanges, down 4.1% on the LME and 5.3% on the ShFE. Zinc inventories in LME warehouses surged to 235,025 tonnes, their highest since September 2018, while ShFE stockpiles of the metal rose to 43,240 tonnes, the highest since Dec. 11, 2020. China is nearing its week-long Lunar New Year holiday from Feb. 11 to 17, when demand for metals usually slows due to lower industrial activities. Cash zinc on the LME has been trading at a discount to the three-month contract since June 2020, indicating abundant nearby supplies. The global zinc market surplus increased to 52,900 tonnes in October from a revised 38,900 tonnes a month earlier, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. During the first 10 months of the year, the global surplus was 480,000 tonnes compared to a deficit of 216,000 tonnes in the same period last year. China's zinc smelters will raise production by almost 300,000 tonnes, or 5.7%, in 2021 after producing a record amount of metal last year despite the pandemic, while refined lead output will also grow, research house Antaike said. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 34.92% to settled at 2179 while prices down -9.45 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 201.8 and below same could see a test of 198.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 210.4, a move above could see prices testing 216.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 198.8-216.
* Zinc prices fell after stockpiles in exchange warehouses jumped ahead of a traditionally weak demand season in top consumer China.
* Zinc inventories in LME warehouses surged to 235,025 tonnes, their highest since September 2018
* Zinc is now the worst performer year-to-date among the base metal complex on both exchanges, down 4.1% on the LME and 5.3% on the ShFE.
Nickel
Nickel yesterday settled down by -2.6% at 1299.6 on concerns over a fresh US coronavirus aid package. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its growth forecast for the global economy this year. US President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion pandemic relief proposal faces hurdles as Republicans voiced concerns over the cost and lobbied for a smaller plan targeting vaccine distribution. Mounting coronavirus cases and caution ahead of the US Federal Reserve's policy meeting this week has dulled appetite for risk, lending support to the dollar. Data showed U.S. consumer confidence rose moderately in January amid lingering concerns about the COVID-19 pandemic. The Fed meeting is coming to an end, and the market expects that the Fed will keep the current interest rate unchanged. Dove expectations and the worry that the new round of stimulus bill in the US will be delayed will put some pressure on futures. According to customs data, in December 2020, China's nickel ore imports totalled 3.17 million mt (wmt and dmt mixed), a decrease of 11.2% month on month and 26.6% year on year. Nickel ore imports from the Philippines stood at 2.48 million mt (customs data denotes both dry and wet mt), a decrease of 16.6% month on month and a year-on-year increase of 60.72%. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.67% to settled at 1654 while prices down -34.7 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1287 and below same could see a test of 1274.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1317.7, a move above could see prices testing 1335.9.
Trading Ideas:
* Nickel trading range for the day is 1274.5-1335.9.
* Nickel prices ended with losses on concerns over a fresh US coronavirus aid package
* Data showed U.S. consumer confidence rose moderately in January amid lingering concerns about the COVID-19 pandemic.
* The IMF raised its growth forecast for the global economy this year.
Aluminium
Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.95% at 162.4 as dollar seen supported amid mounting coronavirus cases and caution ahead of the US Federal Reserve's policy meeting this week has dulled appetite for risk. China's aluminium imports in December rose 40.5% from the previous month, customs data showed, snapping three months of declines and extending 2020's position as a record year. The world's biggest aluminium producer, usually has little need for overseas supply but a rapid demand recovery after the coronavirus outbreak saw Shanghai prices surge above London, opening up an arbitrage for cheaper imports. The arb closed in the final quarter, but December arrivals of unwrought aluminium and aluminium products were still the highest since September at 265,569 tonnes, the General Administration of Customs data showed. Imports – which include both primary aluminium and unwrought alloy – surpassed the previous annual record, set in 2009, in just 11 months of 2020, with China turning net importer in July and August for the first time in over a decade. Global primary aluminium output rose in December to 5.67 million tonnes, up 4.22% year on year, data from the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) showed. Estimated Chinese production was 3.28 million tonnes in December, the IAI added. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.16% to settled at 766 while prices down -1.55 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 161.7 and below same could see a test of 160.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 163.6, a move above could see prices testing 164.7.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 160.9-164.7.
* Aluminium prices dropped as dollar seen supported amid mounting coronavirus cases and caution ahead of the US Federal Reserve's policy meeting
* China's aluminium imports in December rose 40.5% from the previous month, customs data showed
* Global primary aluminium output rose in December to 5.67 million tonnes, up 4.22% year on year, data from IAI showed.
Mentha oil
Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.11% at 974 on level buying after prices dropped due to demand from cosmetics and toiletries sector in India. The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market. The market has been faced with the lack of migrant labor, supply chain disruptions, shutdown of manufacturing activities, to name a few. Support also seen on the expectation that India’s fragrance industry which had been slow, now slowly gaining the positive momentum post the COVID unlock down. Headed towards a new decade, the fragrance industry has received a much needed boost with the acceptance of trendy dhoop sticks and dhoop cones which has seen an increased 20% demand day by day. The global aroma chemicals market is likely to record a steady CAGR of about 4% during the assessment period of 2020-2030. Growing demand for aroma chemicals in the food & beverage and fragrance industry will underpin the growth of the market. Strict regulations in relation to artificial flavours are complimenting to the expansion of natural aroma chemicals in the food sector. Out of India's total mentha oil exports, nearly 55% goes to China while 16% goes to the US and around 5% goes to Singapore. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -1.9 Rupees to end at 1129.8 Rupees per 360 kgs. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed remain unchanged in open interest by 0% to settled at 71 while prices up 1.1 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 969.1 and below same could see a test of 964.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 980.5, a move above could see prices testing 986.9.
Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 964.1-986.9.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -1.9 Rupees to end at 1129.8 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil recovered on level buying after prices dropped due to demand from cosmetics and toiletries sector in India.
* The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market.
* The global aroma chemicals market is likely to record a steady CAGR of about 4% during the assessment period of 2020-2030.
Soyabean
Soyabean yesterday settled up by 2.44% at 4574 tracking rise on CBOT prices on worried about tightening U.S. and global soyoil supplies Rains disrupted harvest in Brazilian soybean-growing areas, slowing down field work in the world's largest soy producer and potentially delaying the planting of the country's second corn crop, pushing Chicago soybean oil up 1.2%. BV Mehta, executive director of the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEA), said that poultry consumes about 5 million tonnes of soya every year and despite the bird flu, soya prices would not come down drastically. “Soya constitutes about 30 per cent of poultry feed every month. If the domestic demand dips, we are looking for additional export. We don’t want to increase export by reducing supply to the domestic market, but if local demand fails to pick up we will enhance export,” said Mehta. China's soybean imports hit a record high in 2020, customs data showed, after crushers ramped up purchases amid improved margins and healthy demand from the country's rapidly recovering pig sector. China, the world's top soybean buyer, bought 100.33 million tonnes of the oilseed in 2020, up 13% from 88.51 million tonnes in 2019, according to the General Administration of Customs, the highest annual imports on record. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 32 Rupees to 4491 Rupees per 100 kgs. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -8.5% to settled at 162240 while prices up 109 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 4532 and below same could see a test of 4489 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4607, a move above could see prices testing 4639.
Trading Ideas:
* Soyabean trading range for the day is 4489-4639.
* Soyabean gained tracking rise on CBOT prices on worried about tightening U.S. and global soyoil supplies
* Rains disrupted harvest in Brazilian soybean-growing areas, slowing down field work in the world's largest soy producer
* Support also seen amid private sales of 136,000 tonnes of U.S. cargoes to China and 163,290 tonnes to Mexico
* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 32 Rupees to 4491 Rupees per 100 kgs.
Ref.Soyaoil
Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled up by 3.54% at 1085.2 amid supply concerns due to poor weather conditions in Latin America and strong demand from China. The sowing of oilseed crops has increased to 81.80 lakh hectares in the current Rabi whereas till this time last year, it was sown only in 77.79 lakh hectares. NOPA members, which handle about 95% of all soybeans processed in the United States, were estimated to have crushed a near-record 185.175 million bushels of soybeans last month. Soyoil supplies among NOPA members at the end of December were seen rising for a third straight month to 1.712 billion pounds, compared with 1.558 billion pounds at the end of November and 1.757 billion pounds at the end of December 2019. Under World Trade Organization WTO rules, each country has been allowed to levy import-export duty on oil and oil. But there is no equality in this, as a result, the exporting countries of edible oils keep reducing the export duty according to their convenience and requirement, which causes damage to countries like India. India has been empowered to impose a maximum import duty of up to 45 percent on soybean oil and up to 300 percent on palm oil under WTO rules. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1042.05 Rupees per 10 kgs. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.99% to settled at 33785 while prices up 37.1 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1062 and below same could see a test of 1038 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1100, a move above could see prices testing 1114.
Trading Ideas:
* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1038-1114.
* Ref soyoil prices gained amid supply concerns due to poor weather conditions in Latin America and strong demand from China.
* The sowing of oilseed crops has increased to 81.80 lakh hectares in the current Rabi whereas till this time last year, it was sown only in 77.79 lakh hectares.
* NOPA members, which handle about 95% of all soybeans processed in US, were estimated to have crushed a near-record 185.175 mln bushels
* At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1042.05 Rupees per 10 kgs.
Crude palm Oil
Crude palm Oil yesterday settled up by 3.42% at 949.2 on short covering amid boosted by supply concerns. Disappointing Malaysia export figures are still lingering in the market, offsetting worries of supply disruption due to heavy rain and floods. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for January 1 – 25 fell 36.1% compared to December 1 – 25 period, cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services said. Cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance said exports dropped 34.3% over the same period. Indonesia set the February reference price for crude palm oil (CPO) at $839.69 per tonne, lower compared to $951.86 per tonne in January, allowing for lower export taxes and levies next month, a Trade Ministry regulation showed. Based on the reference price, the export tax for CPO will be set at $18 per tonne and the levy at $150 per tonne, compared to $74 tax and $225 levy in January. Malaysia's commodities ministry forecast crude palm oil production at 19.7 million tonnes in 2021, rising from 19.14 million tonnes last year. "This is due to the expected expansion of mature oil palm areas as well as the effects of dry weather affecting the production of fresh palm fruit bunches, and subsequently crude palm oil production," Minister Mohd Khairuddin Aman Razali said in a statement. In spot market, Crude palm oil dropped by -8.3 Rupees to end at 910.7 Rupees. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -15.4% to settled at 1231 while prices up 31.4 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 933.1 and below same could see a test of 917.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 959, a move above could see prices testing 968.9.
Trading Ideas:
* CPO trading range for the day is 917.1-968.9.
* Crude palm oil prices ended with gains on short covering amid boosted by supply concerns.
* Indonesia sets lower crude palm oil exports tax, levies in Feb
* Malaysia's commodities ministry forecast crude palm oil production at 19.7 million tonnes in 2021, rising from 19.14 million tonnes last year.
* In spot market, Crude palm oil dropped by -8.3 Rupees to end at 910.7 Rupees.
Mustard Seed
Mustard Seed yesterday settled up by 0.26% at 5392 on low level buying after prices seen under pressure in recent session as year on year, the planted area of mustard has increased by 6.7 percent approximately. The latest Government data shows that the planted area in Mustard or RM seed has so far reached 73.25 Lakh hectares as against 68.64 Lakh hectares during last year’s corresponding period. The government aims to take the area under mustard to around 80 lakh hectares this year, under the Oilseeds Mission program. The mustard crop continues providing better prices to farmers than the MSP till now. India’s 2020-21 mustard crop may touch 100 lakh ton-level due to higher sowing and conducive weather. The sowing of oilseed crops has increased to 81.80 lakh hectares in the current Rabi whereas till this time last year, it was sown only in 77.79 lakh hectares. At the national level, the total production area of rabi crops increased to 620.71 lakh hectare on January 1, 2021, compared to 603.15 lakh hectare to 17.56 lakh hectare or 2.91 percent and the general average area from 620.27 lakh hectare to 44 thousand hectare in the same period last year. The latest data from the Union Ministry of Agriculture shows that this time the production of oilseeds crops was 75.93 lakh hectare as compared to the last season. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 52.15 Rupees to end at 6080.75 Rupees per 100 kg. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.38% to settled at 15940 while prices up 14 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 5349 and below same could see a test of 5306 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5442, a move above could see prices testing 5492.
Trading Ideas:
* Rmseed trading range for the day is 5306-5492.
* Mustard gained on low level buying after prices seen under pressure as year on year, the planted area of mustard has increased by 6.7%.
* The latest Government data shows that the planted area in Mustard has so far reached 73.25 Lakh hectares
* India’s 2020-21 mustard crop may touch 100 lakh ton-level due to higher sowing and conducive weather. Sowing
* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 52.15 Rupees to end at 6080.75 Rupees per 100 kg.
Turmeric
Turmeric yesterday settled up by 1.5% at 6476 as one of the 5 important producing states of turmeric- Maharashtra is expected to decline production due to inclement weather in areas such as Nanded, Hingoli and Basmat Nagar. As a result, prices have started climbing there. The price of kadhi turmeric has increased from Rs 5500/5600 per quintal to Rs 6600/6800 per quintal in these lines. There before in Nizamabad the light quality turmeric with moisture was selling at the rate of Rs 3500/4000 per quintal, now it has reached Rs 5000 per quintal. In the top producing states of Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Maharashtra and Orissa, the arrival of new goods of turmeric was delayed by 15-20 days even though it did not have a large backlog stock. This has led to an upward revision in prices, whereas for a long time, it was a trend of softening or stability. During the month of December, due to heavy rains in the producing areas and flooding in the fields, turmeric crop was damaged and production is likely to decline. Limited stock of turmeric is being reported with producers and stockists. With the Telangana producer demanding a minimum support price of turmeric from the government to fund Rs 15,000 per quintal, has also gone on strike in January. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6100 Rupees gained 3.55 Rupees. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.94% to settled at 8585 while prices up 96 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 6382 and below same could see a test of 6290 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6562, a move above could see prices testing 6650.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 6290-6650.
* Turmeric prices gained as one of the 5 important producing states of turmeric- Maharashtra is expected to decline production due to inclement weather
* In the top producing states the arrival of new goods of turmeric was delayed by 15-20 days
* With the Telangana producer demanding a MSP from the government Rs 15,000 per quintal, has also gone on strike in January.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6100 Rupees gained 3.55 Rupees.
Jeera
Jeera yesterday settled up by 1.87% at 13635 after update there has been a reduction of 15 to 20% in cumin seeds in Gujarat and Rajasthan. How weather is expected for the cumin market for the next 2 to 3 weeks is important. If the weather deteriorates, then in February-March, a phase of boom can be seen. Demand for Ramadan will start in February. If the arrival of cumin at that time will not be in accordance with the perception, then the cumin may show a boom. In the international market of cumin, every buyer countries are currently waiting for the new cumin seeds. The international community is getting reports of sowing of new cumin seeds in India as much as last year and the climate is also favorable for cumin. Currently, Syrian cumin is priced at $ 2900 to 3000 per ton in the international market, Afghanistan cumin is being priced at $ 2300 to 2350 per ton. In this origin, there is no significant trade due to no large stock of cumin. The price per ton of Indian cumin is running from $ 1815 to 1850. The price of Indian cumin was reduced to $ 1750 at one stage, but after that the price was increased due to the uncertainty of export promotion scheme. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -40.6 Rupees to end at 13058.8 Rupees per 100 kg. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 3.63% to settled at 1455 while prices up 250 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 13470 and below same could see a test of 13305 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 13725, a move above could see prices testing 13815.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 13305-13815.
* Jeera prices gained after update there has been a reduction of 15 to 20% in cumin seeds in Gujarat and Rajasthan.
* Consumption of cumin has increased in the current year and export demand is also large and cumin is unlikely to slow down from the current price
* Currently, Syrian cumin is priced at $ 2900 to 3000 per ton in the international market, Afghanistan cumin is being priced at $ 2300 to 2350 per ton.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -40.6 Rupees to end at 13058.8 Rupees per 100 kg.
Cotton
Cotton yesterday settled down by -0.8% at 21180 as cotton procurement by the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) has almost come to a stop, top officials at the CCI said. Cotton procurement under the minimum support price (MSP) programme has reduced with prices going up. Cotton arrivals are staggered with around 210 lakh bales having already arrived into the market with another 140-150 lakh bales remaining with farmers. The CCI has procured 85 lakh bales and may procure another 5-10 lakh bales. USDA projecting lower opening stocks, production and ending stocks this season (October 2020-September 2021), raising hopes of the commodity exports from India. Going by current trends, India’s cotton exports can touch 65 lakh bales (170 kg each) and it can help reduce the country’s huge carryover stocks from last season. However, Cotton Association of India (CAI) President Atul Ganatra said export demand is currently slow due to novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) lockdown in Europe and few more countries. His association has pegged exports at 54 lakh bales this season. The Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) has permitted those who buy cotton from it through e-auctions, to lock in the cotton prices. In spot market, Cotton dropped by -10 Rupees to end at 21050 Rupees. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 5.02% to settled at 6607 while prices down -170 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 21100 and below same could see a test of 21010 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 21330, a move above could see prices testing 21470.
Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 21010-21470.
* Cotton dropped as cotton procurement by the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) has almost come to a stop.
* Cotton procurement under the minimum support price (MSP) programme has reduced with prices going up.
* Cotton arrivals are staggered with around 210 lakh bales having already arrived into the market with another 140-150 lakh bales remaining with farmers.
* In spot market, Cotton dropped by -10 Rupees to end at 21050 Rupees.
Chana
Chana yesterday settled up by 0.34% at 4483 on short covering as Nafed’s unstable chana releasing strategy continues to affect market directly at a time when area is up by 5 % and the new crop is hardly one and a half month away. Pulses sowing area jumped by nearly 109% to 8.55 lh. Chana acreage has soared by 115% to 8.03 lh. Nafed continued to fix reserve price and changed it frequently from Rs 5600 to Rs. 5100, again Rs. 5100 to Rs. 4875. Apart from it has offered 5 to 10 % discount over previous MSP on particular centers. As offtake from central pool is lower, Nafed may decrease price further to vacate storage space for new procurement. It would not allow chana cash market to go up beyond a certain level. Delhi chana is being traded at Rs4550-4650. Demand is weak. Weather condition in Jan –Feb remains crucial. The latest data shows that the total area of pulses has increased by 7% to 141 lakh hectares. More sowing is done in Maharashtra, Odisha and Jharkhand as compared to last year. Gram cultivation has increased by about 10%. NAFED to sell Gram PSS Rabi-2020 stock from all the States at or above base prices of Rs. 5100 per quintal in the month of December 2020, it offers an initial quantity of 1.5 LMT of Gram, for the month of December 2020. In Delhi spot market, chana dropped by -35.4 Rupees to end at 4485.85 Rupees per 100 kgs. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.57% to settled at 32990 while prices up 15 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 4456 and below same could see a test of 4430 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4513, a move above could see prices testing 4544.
Trading Ideas:
* Chana trading range for the day is 4430-4544.
* Chana gained on short covering as Nafed’s unstable chana releasing strategy continues to affect market directly at a time when area is up by 5 %
* Pulses sowing area jumped by nearly 109% to 8.55 lh.
* Nafed continued to fix reserve price and changed it frequently from Rs 5600 to Rs. 5100, again Rs. 5100 to Rs. 4875.
* In Delhi spot market, chana dropped by -35.4 Rupees to end at 4485.85 Rupees per 100 kgs.
