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India's merchandise export is expected to grow at 4.9 per cent in Q4FY21, predicted Export-Import Bank of India in a report.

Accordingly, the report cited that total merchandise exports can amount to $78.6 billion, growing at 4.9 per cent.

Similarly, the non-oil exports are expected to grow. They might reach $73.9 billion, growing at 12 per cent during the fourth quarter of 2020-21.

However, aggregate exports for 2020-21 are forecast to amount to $279.4 billion, witnessing a contraction of 10.8 per cent over 2019-20.

Besides, non-oil exports are forecast to amount to $256.8 billion, witnessing a contraction of 5.6 per cent over 2019-20.

"The fall in India's exports of petroleum products could be attributed largely to the global slump in demand and especially in the transportation and logistics sectors," the bank said in a statement.

"Considering the global contraction in trade due to pandemic, non-oil exports from India has been resilient. Despite serious disruptions and logistical constraints exports from India have remained upbeat."

The forecast is based on India Exim Bank's Export Leading Index (ELI) model, which has shown an upward movement during the same quarter.

In addition, the forecast is released on a quarterly basis, during the first week of the months of June, September, December, and March for the corresponding quarters.