Jeera trading range for the day is 13040-13620 - Kedia Advisory
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Gold
Gold yesterday settled up by 0.01% at 49143 as the dollar edged higher, but expectations of fresh U.S. fiscal stimulus underpinned the bullion ahead of this week's Federal Reserve's meeting. The dollar edged higher as a burst of volatility in stock markets around the globe sapped investors' appetite for riskier currencies. Officials in U.S. President Joe Biden's administration call with Republican and Democratic lawmakers tried to head off Republican concerns that his $1.9 trillion pandemic relief proposal was too expensive. Optimistic expectations of successful vaccine injection have cooled down. WHO says that in the foreseeable future, vaccine coverage will not reach the level that can prevent the spread of the virus. The pessimistic news of vaccine with the new measures of pandemic prevention and blockade kept investors cautious. In addition, Senate Majority Leader Schumer said that he would strive to launch a round of bail-out plan by mid-March at the latest, and the $1.9 trillion stimulus bill faced the risk of delaying. Retail demand picks up; Chinese New Year to draw buyers - Demand for physical gold picked up as the approaching Chinese New Year encouraged buyers in China and Singapore. Indian dealers were charging a premium of up to $1 an ounce over official domestic prices this week, inclusive of 12.5% import and 3% sales levies and up from last week’s premium of $0.5. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -16.06% to settled at 4206 while prices up 3 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 48930 and below same could see a test of 48717 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 49351, a move above could see prices testing 49559.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 48717-49559.
* Gold prices pared gains as the dollar edged higher, but expectations of fresh U.S. fiscal stimulus underpinned the bullion ahead of Fed’s meeting.
* The dollar edged higher as a burst of volatility in stock markets around the globe sapped investors' appetite for riskier currencies.
* Officials in U.S. President Joe Biden's administration tried to head off Republican concerns that his $1.9 trillion pandemic relief proposal was too expensive.
Silver
Silver yesterday settled down by -0.16% at 66535 as the dollar recovered after early weakness and stayed firm against most of its peers. However, metals decline was limited due to optimism about stimulus. Traders were also looking ahead to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy announcement, due on Wednesday. Reports showing spikes in coronavirus cases and tighter lockdown restrictions in several places across the globe raised concerns about growth and halted the bullion's slide. On the stimulus front, lawmakers in Washington are working on the $1.9-trillion stimulus proposal from the new president. According to reports, Joe Biden faces a narrow window to clinch bipartisan support for his $1.9 trillion stimulus plan, after congressional Democrats said they wanted a deal before the impeachment trial against Donald Trump. Investors, however, expect some additional spending to materialize eventually that will help lift global economic growth. The Federal Reserve, which will announce its policy on Wednesday, is widely expected to put off any changes in their bond-buying program until next year. A report released by the National Association of Realtors showed existing home sales in the U.S. unexpectedly rebounded in the month of December, climbing by 0.7% to an annual rate of 6.76 million. U.S. business activity accelerated at the start of the new year, particularly among manufacturers, while capacity constraints generated more inflationary pressures. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.69% to settled at 11546 while prices down -107 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 65892 and below same could see a test of 65248 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 67197, a move above could see prices testing 67858.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 65248-67858.
* Silver prices drifted lower as the dollar recovered after early weakness, but decline was limited due to optimism about stimulus.
* On the stimulus front, lawmakers in Washington are working on the $1.9-trillion stimulus proposal from the new president.
* Reports showing spikes in coronavirus cases and tighter lockdown restrictions in several places across the globe raised concerns about growth
Crude oil
Crude oil yesterday settled up by 0.1% at 3839 amid expectations of a drop in crude supplies. Reports saying oil exports have been halted at some Libyan ports following a dispute over wages, and Iran's reported plan to cut crude output supported oil prices. U.S. crude oil stockpiles rose unexpectedly last week, while refineries hiked output to their capacity usage since March, the Energy Information Administration said. Crude inventories rose by 4.4 million barrels in the week to Jan. 15, compared with expectations for a decrease of 1.2 million barrels. Iran's oil exports have climbed in recent months and its sales of petroleum products to foreign buyers reached record highs despite U.S. sanctions, the oil minister said. Money managers raised their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions in the week to January 19, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said. The speculator group raise its combined futures and options position in New York and London by 7,348 contracts to 357,312 during the period. U.S. energy firms this week added oil and natural gas rigs for a ninth week in a row amid higher energy prices over the past few months. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.29% to settled at 1398 while prices up 4 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 3799 and below same could see a test of 3758 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 3875, a move above could see prices testing 3910.
Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 3758-3910.
* Crude oil prices recovered to end with small gains amid expectations of a drop in crude supplies.
* Reports saying oil exports have been halted at some Libyan ports following a dispute over wages, and Iran's reported plan to cut crude output
* U.S. crude stockpiles jump, refiners boost output last week –EIA
Nat.Gas
Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 3.2% at 186.9 on forecasts for colder weather and higher heating demand through early February than earlier expected. Data provider Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 U.S. states averaged 91.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in January. That compares with an eight-month high of 91.5 bcfd in December and an all-time monthly high of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019. Even though the current weather outlook was colder than previously forecast, temperatures next week were still expected to be higher than this week. Refinitiv projected that milder weather would cause average gas demand, including exports, to fall from 128.4 bcfd this week to 122.8 bcfd next week. That demand forecast, however, is higher than Refinitiv's outlook on Friday. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants averaged 10.4 bcfd so far in January. Traders said that was down from December's 10.7 bcfd monthly record because flows to Cheniere Energy Inc's Sabine Pass plant in Louisiana and Freeport LNG's plant in Texas declined last week due to a combination of fog and pipeline maintenance. Despite the small decline in LNG exports, buyers around the world continue to purchase near record amounts of U.S. gas because cold weather and LNG supply issues have kept prices in Europe and Asia much higher than in the United States. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -12.05% to settled at 8371 while prices up 5.8 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 183.7 and below same could see a test of 180.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 189.5, a move above could see prices testing 192.1.
Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 180.5-192.1.
* Natural gas climbed on forecasts for colder weather and higher heating demand through early February than earlier expected.
* Data provider Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 U.S. states averaged 91.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in January.
* Refinitiv projected that milder weather would cause average gas demand, including exports, to fall from 128.4 bcfd this week to 122.8 bcfd next week.
Copper
Copper yesterday settled up by 0.01% at 610.3 on demand worries due to rising coronavirus cases in top consumer China and ahead of seasonally slow consumption during the Lunar New Year holiday. China reported a climb in new COVID-19 cases driven by a spike in infections among previously symptomless patients in northeastern Jilin province, risking wider lockdowns that would undermine industrial activity. Meanwhile, copper demand growth has slowed as imports have levelled off ahead of the Chinese New Year holiday in February when many factories close. Global copper smelting activity climbed in December, led by top producer China, while North America extended its decline as coronavirus cases surged, data from satellite surveillance of copper plants showed. Economic activity in the euro zone shrank markedly in January, PMI surveys showed, while forecasters surveyed by the European Central Bank downgraded their growth expectations for the bloc this year. Speculators are reducing bets on higher copper prices from multi-year peaks. However, copper stocks in warehouses monitored by the LME, Comex and the Shanghai Futures Exchange are dwindling, with ShFE inventories the lowest since 2011. The global refined copper market showed a 155,000-tonne deficit in September compared with a 72,000-tonne deficit in August, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said in its latest monthly bulletin. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 5.02% to settled at 3975 while prices up 0.05 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 606.4 and below same could see a test of 602.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 613.3, a move above could see prices testing 616.2.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 602.4-616.2.
* Copper settled flat on demand worries due to rising coronavirus cases in top consumer China and ahead of seasonally slow consumption during the Lunar New Year holiday.
* Copper demand growth has slowed as imports have levelled off ahead of the Chinese New Year holiday in February
* China reported a climb in new COVID-19 cases driven by a spike in infections among previously symptomless patients in northeastern Jilin province
Zinc
Zinc yesterday settled down by -0.35% at 214.25 as rising COVID-19 cases and doubts over the ability of vaccine makers to supply the promised doses on time soured risk appetite. Faced with the threat from a new COVID-19 strain, the United States will prohibit most non-US citizens who recently visited South Africa from entering, and France may impose new lockdown measures. The British Health Minister warned that vaccines may be less effective against new virus variants. After completing compulsory testing of about 7,000 people, Hong Kong eased restrictions on uninfected residents in Kowloon. US President Biden warned citizens to prepare for the darkest days of the pandemic and announced a "wartime" pandemic prevention plan. However, Republican lawmakers insisted on opposing large-scale stimulus. But even so, the market was still optimistic about a new round of stimulus bills. Data showed that social inventories of refined zinc ingots across Shanghai, Tianjin, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong and Hebei increased 4,900 mt from last Friday January 22 to 146,600 mt as of Monday January 25. The stocks were up 1,900 mt from last Monday January 18. China's refined zinc output stood at 553,500 mt in December, falling 8,800 mt or down 1.57% on month and up 3.06% on year. In the full 2020, output totalled 6.1 million mt, up 4.44% from 2019. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 3.06% to settled at 1615 while prices down -0.75 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 213.1 and below same could see a test of 211.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 216, a move above could see prices testing 217.6.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 211.8-217.6.
* Zinc prices dropped on the defensive as rising COVID-19 cases and doubts over the ability of vaccine makers to supply the promised doses
* Data showed that social inventories of refined zinc ingots increased 4,900 mt from last Friday
* US President Biden warned citizens to prepare for the darkest days of the pandemic and announced a "wartime" pandemic prevention plan.
Nickel
Nickel yesterday settled up by 0.4% at 1334.3 amid the new pandemic relief bill in the US with the good news that Britain plans to deregulate. Optimistic expectations of successful vaccine injection have cooled down. WHO says that in the foreseeable future, vaccine coverage will not reach the level that can prevent the spread of the virus. The pessimistic news of vaccine with the new measures of pandemic prevention and blockade kept investors cautious. In addition, Senate Majority Leader Schumer said that he would strive to launch a round of bail-out plan by mid-March at the latest, and the $1.9 trillion stimulus bill faced the risk of delaying. According to customs data, in December 2020, China's nickel ore imports totalled 3.17 million mt (wmt and dmt mixed), a decrease of 11.2% month on month and 26.6% year on year. Nickel ore imports from the Philippines stood at 2.48 million mt (customs data denotes both dry and wet mt), a decrease of 16.6% month on month and a year-on-year increase of 60.72%. Imports from New Caledonia increased by 58.6% from the previous month to 522,000 mt. Indonesia exported 79,200 mt of low-grade nickel ore to China, while Australia’s exports fell to zero. Shipments from the Philippines in January were slow on the back of adverse weather, and the imports are expected to decline significantly compared with December. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 10.21% to settled at 1717 while prices up 5.3 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1323 and below same could see a test of 1311.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1343.7, a move above could see prices testing 1353.2.
Trading Ideas:
* Nickel trading range for the day is 1311.8-1353.2.
* Nickel prices remained supported amid the new pandemic relief bill in the US with the good news that Britain plans to deregulate.
* The pessimistic news of vaccine with the new measures of pandemic prevention and blockade kept investors cautious.
* According to customs data, in December 2020, China's nickel ore imports totalled 3.17 million mt, a decrease of 11.2% month on month
Aluminium
Aluminium yesterday settled up by 0.86% at 163.95 as optimism over a $1.9 trillion U.S. stimulus plan outweighed rising COVID-19 cases and delays in vaccine supplies. World aluminium output rose by 2.5% to a record 65.3 million tonnes last year, with producers lifting run-rates as the aluminium price rebounded from its March lows. China's giant aluminium smelting sector responded to soaring local prices with a 1.8-million tonne lift in annualised production over the second half of 2020. November saw annualised run-rates exceed 39.0 million tonnes for the first time ever, according to the International Aluminium Institute. This supply surge is coinciding with a wind-down in demand ahead of the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday period, with most expecting prices to weaken over the coming weeks and months as the market digests the extra production. China may be running out of new capacity to flex as national production edges ever closer to the country's capacity cap of 45 million tonnes per year. The government has since 2017 been enforcing a strict old-for-new policy in the aluminium sector. New smelters have only been permitted when matching older capacity is closed. Global primary aluminium output rose in December to 5.67 million tonnes, up 4.22% year on year, data from the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) showed. Estimated Chinese production was 3.28 million tonnes in December, the IAI added. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.65% to settled at 775 while prices up 1.4 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 162.8 and below same could see a test of 161.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 164.6, a move above could see prices testing 165.3.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 161.7-165.3.
* Aluminium gains as optimism over a $1.9 trillion U.S. stimulus plan outweighed rising COVID-19 cases and delays in vaccine supplies.
* World aluminium output rose by 2.5% to a record 65.3 million tonnes last year, with producers lifting run-rates as the aluminium price rebounded from its March lows.
* Global primary aluminium output rose in December to 5.67 million tonnes, up 4.22% year on year, data from IAI showed.
Mentha oil
Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.07% at 972.9 due to demand from cosmetics and toiletries sector in India. The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market. The market has been faced with the lack of migrant labor, supply chain disruptions, shutdown of manufacturing activities, to name a few. Support also seen on the expectation that India’s fragrance industry which had been slow, now slowly gaining the positive momentum post the COVID unlock down. Headed towards a new decade, the fragrance industry has received a much needed boost with the acceptance of trendy dhoop sticks and dhoop cones which has seen an increased 20% demand day by day. The global aroma chemicals market is likely to record a steady CAGR of about 4% during the assessment period of 2020-2030. Growing demand for aroma chemicals in the food & beverage and fragrance industry will underpin the growth of the market. Strict regulations in relation to artificial flavours are complimenting to the expansion of natural aroma chemicals in the food sector. Out of India's total mentha oil exports, nearly 55% goes to China while 16% goes to the US and around 5% goes to Singapore. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -1.9 Rupees to end at 1129.8 Rupees per 360 kgs. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.43% to settled at 71 while prices down -0.7 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 969 and below same could see a test of 965.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 977.3, a move above could see prices testing 981.7.
Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 965.1-981.7.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -1.9 Rupees to end at 1129.8 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil prices dropped due to demand from cosmetics and toiletries sector in India.
* The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market.
* The global aroma chemicals market is likely to record a steady CAGR of about 4% during the assessment period of 2020-2030.
Soyabean
Soyabean yesterday settled down by -1.65% at 4465 tracking weakness in overseas prices as rains in South American key growing areas eased worries about global supply. Argentine soybean planting sped forward over the last week, helped by rain that moistened fields parched by months of dry weather, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said. Losses in soybean market were limited by private sales of 136,000 tonnes of U.S. cargoes to China and 163,290 tonnes to Mexico, both for shipment in the 2020/21 season. BV Mehta, executive director of the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEA), said that poultry consumes about 5 million tonnes of soya every year and despite the bird flu, soya prices would not come down drastically. “Soya constitutes about 30 per cent of poultry feed every month. If the domestic demand dips, we are looking for additional export. We don’t want to increase export by reducing supply to the domestic market, but if local demand fails to pick up we will enhance export,” said Mehta. China's soybean imports hit a record high in 2020, customs data showed, after crushers ramped up purchases amid improved margins and healthy demand from the country's rapidly recovering pig sector. China, the world's top soybean buyer, bought 100.33 million tonnes of the oilseed in 2020, up 13% from 88.51 million tonnes in 2019, according to the General Administration of Customs, the highest annual imports on record. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 32 Rupees to 4491 Rupees per 100 kgs. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.6% to settled at 177320 while prices down -75 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 4409 and below same could see a test of 4354 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4522, a move above could see prices testing 4580.
Trading Ideas:
* Soyabean trading range for the day is 4354-4580.
* Soyabean dropped tracking weakness in overseas prices as rains in South American key growing areas eased worries about global supply.
* Argentine soybean planting sped forward over the last week, helped by rain that moistened fields parched by months of dry weather
* Losses in soybean market were limited by private sales of 136,000 tonnes of U.S. cargoes to China and 163,290 tonnes to Mexico
* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 32 Rupees to 4491 Rupees per 100 kgs.
Ref.Soyaoil
Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled down by -0.24% at 1048.1 as the sowing of oilseed crops has increased to 81.80 lakh hectares in the current Rabi whereas till this time last year, it was sown only in 77.79 lakh hectares. Pressure also seen tracking weakness in soyabean prices as the outbreak of bird flu may reduce the demand for soybean from the poultry industry. The outbreak of avian influenza in Parbhani district has been among poultry, while AI has been confirmed from crows in Mumbai, Thane, Dapoli, Maharashtra. Soybean production is estimated at 4.135 billion bushels, down 35 million led by reductions for Minnesota, Iowa, and Kansas. Largest exporter Argentina and Uruguay have also reported lower production of soybean this year, soybean production is lowered 2 million tons to 48 million for Argentina and 200,000 to 2.2 million for Uruguay, reflecting dry weather conditions in December and early January.. NOPA members, which handle about 95% of all soybeans processed in the United States, were estimated to have crushed a near-record 185.175 million bushels of soybeans last month. Soyoil supplies among NOPA members at the end of December were seen rising for a third straight month to 1.712 billion pounds, compared with 1.558 billion pounds at the end of November and 1.757 billion pounds at the end of December 2019. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1042.05 Rupees per 10 kgs. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.66% to settled at 34825 while prices down -2.5 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1034 and below same could see a test of 1019 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1057, a move above could see prices testing 1065.
Trading Ideas:
* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1019-1065.
* Ref soyoil prices dropped as pressure seen amid the sowing of oilseed crops has increased to 81.80 lakh hectares.
* Pressure also seen tracking weakness in soyabean prices as the outbreak of bird flu may reduce the demand for soybean from the poultry industry
* Soybean production is estimated at 4.135 billion bushels, down 35 million led by reductions for Minnesota, Iowa, and Kansas.
* At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1042.05 Rupees per 10 kgs.
Crude palm Oil
Crude palm Oil yesterday settled down by -0.11% at 917.8 as tepid January exports and weak prices of rival soyoil weighed on sentiment. Disappointing Malaysia export figures are still lingering in the market, offsetting worries of supply disruption due to heavy rain and floods. Disappointing Malaysia export figures are still lingering in the market, offsetting worries of supply disruption due to heavy rain and floods. Malaysia's commodities ministry forecast crude palm oil production at 19.7 million tonnes in 2021, rising from 19.14 million tonnes last year. "This is due to the expected expansion of mature oil palm areas as well as the effects of dry weather affecting the production of fresh palm fruit bunches, and subsequently crude palm oil production," Minister Mohd Khairuddin Aman Razali said in a statement. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for Jan. 1-20 fell 41% to 632,827 tonnes from the same period in December, AmSpec Agri Malaysia said. Exports during Jan. 1-15 had also declined 42%. Contracting demand outweighed fears of supply disruption as flooding in several parts of Malaysia hurt output. Focus will also be on Indonesia Feb. palm oil export levies and export duty announcement; at present it is expected to increase to $255 and $93 per tonne respectively, totalling $348 per tonne, in comparison to $72 per tonne export tax from Malaysia. In spot market, Crude palm oil dropped by -8.3 Rupees to end at 910.7 Rupees. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -19.08% to settled at 1455 while prices down -1 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 906.1 and below same could see a test of 894.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 924.6, a move above could see prices testing 931.3.
Trading Ideas:
* CPO trading range for the day is 894.3-931.3.
* Crude palm oil prices dropped as tepid January exports and weak prices of rival soyoil weighed on sentiment.
* Disappointing Malaysia export figures are still lingering in the market, offsetting worries of supply disruption due to heavy rain and floods.
* Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for Jan. 1-20 fell 41% to 632,827 tonnes from the same period in December
* In spot market, Crude palm oil dropped by -8.3 Rupees to end at 910.7 Rupees.
Mustard Seed
Mustard Seed yesterday settled down by -4% at 5378 after update India’s 2020-21 mustard crop may touch 100 lakh ton-level due to higher sowing and conducive weather. Sowing of mustard, has increased to 72.98 lakh hectare in the current Rabi whereas till last year, it was sown only in 68.15 lakh hectare. The sowing of oilseed crops has increased to 81.80 lakh hectares in the current Rabi whereas till this time last year, it was sown only in 77.79 lakh hectares. At the national level, the total production area of rabi crops increased to 620.71 lakh hectare on January 1, 2021, compared to 603.15 lakh hectare to 17.56 lakh hectare or 2.91 percent and the general average area from 620.27 lakh hectare to 44 thousand hectare in the same period last year. The latest data from the Union Ministry of Agriculture shows that this time the production of oilseeds crops was 75.93 lakh hectare as compared to the last season. In oilseed crops, mustard-rapeseed production area jumped from 66.62 lakh hectare last year to 72.39 lakh hectare. The Union Agriculture Ministry has set a target of sowing mustard in 75 lakh hectare area during the current Rabi season. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 52.15 Rupees to end at 6080.75 Rupees per 100 kg. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.89% to settled at 15570 while prices down -224 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 5310 and below same could see a test of 5243 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5512, a move above could see prices testing 5647.
Trading Ideas:
* Rmseed trading range for the day is 5243-5647.
* Mustard seed prices dropped as India’s 2020-21 mustard crop may touch 100 lakh ton-level.
* Sowing of mustard, has increased to 72.98 lakh hectare in the current Rabi whereas till last year, it was sown only in 68.15 lakh hectare.
* The sowing of oilseed crops has increased to 81.80 lakh hectares in the current Rabi whereas till this time last year, it was sown only in 77.79 lakh hectares.
* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 52.15 Rupees to end at 6080.75 Rupees per 100 kg.
Turmeric
Turmeric yesterday settled up by 2.44% at 6380 on the fear of low production this year. Turmeric growing regions of Telangana, Maharashtra, and Karnataka is likely to have adverse impact on overall productivity of Turmeric. Stockiest are getting active and started purchasing actively due to factors like decreasing sowing area and increasing demand. India’s turmeric production was estimated at 9.46 lakh tonnes compared to 9.61 lakh tonnes the previous year, despite the area under the crop rising by 4,000 hectares to 2.57 lakh hectares. As new strain of Covid has more severe impact has raised expectations regarding the consumption of turmeric as a body immune enhancer in Covid-19 help in bouncing turmeric prices. On the export front, India exported around 0.86 lakh tonnes of Turmeric in April-August, 2020 which is 51% higher than April-August, 2019 at 0.57 lakh tonnes. Turmeric seems to be remains firm due to an increase in demand from overseas buyers as borders are opening across world and pipelines are vacant and forecast of a smaller crop in the 2020-21. On domestic front buying expected to improve in coming month, when the quality of the new crop improves arrive. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6100 Rupees gained 3.55 Rupees. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.22% to settled at 8505 while prices up 152 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 6248 and below same could see a test of 6114 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6478, a move above could see prices testing 6574.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 6114-6574.
* Turmeric prices gained on the fear of low production this year.
* Turmeric growing regions of Telangana, Maharashtra, and Karnataka is likely to have adverse impact on overall productivity of Turmeric.
* Stockiest are getting active and started purchasing actively due to factors like decreasing sowing area and increasing demand.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6100 Rupees gained 3.55 Rupees.
Jeera
Jeera yesterday settled up by 1.13% at 13385 due to constraints in supply as the end of season approaches. Support was also seen from the export side as exporters switched to Indian cumin seed this time. Demand for Indian Cumin has improved from UAE and Vietnam in recent months. Acreage under Jeera in leading producing state of Gujarat was at 4.64 lakh hectares (lh), marking a jump of around 11% compared to the same time last year which may not allow any significant price appreciation of cumin in coming weeks. Some support seen as a statement from the Spices Board said the export of spices, which had fetched ₹12,273.81 crores in the first half of the current fiscal between April and September, had grown by 19 per cent compared to the corresponding period last year. Cues coming from spot market of improved demand from domestic stockiest as a recovery of demand during the festive season on the eve of makar Sankranti and Ramjan toward January to mid-may can be seen which also supported prices. As India going to start it vaccination in the whole country from 16th January onwards it is raising the expectation of trader regarding the boost in demand of Jeera from export as well as from domestic which was dropped in 2020 due to Covid. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -40.6 Rupees to end at 13058.8 Rupees per 100 kg. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.7% to settled at 1404 while prices up 150 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 13210 and below same could see a test of 13040 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 13500, a move above could see prices testing 13620.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 13040-13620.
* Jeera prices gained due to constraints in supply as the end of season approaches.
* Support was also seen from the export side as exporters switched to Indian cumin seed this time.
* Demand for Indian Cumin has improved from UAE and Vietnam in recent months.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -40.6 Rupees to end at 13058.8 Rupees per 100 kg.
Cotton
Cotton yesterday settled down by -0.14% at 21350 as cotton procurement by the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) has almost come to a stop, top officials at the CCI said. Cotton procurement under the minimum support price (MSP) programme has reduced with prices going up. Cotton arrivals are staggered with around 210 lakh bales having already arrived into the market with another 140-150 lakh bales remaining with farmers. The CCI has procured 85 lakh bales and may procure another 5-10 lakh bales. USDA projecting lower opening stocks, production and ending stocks this season (October 2020-September 2021), raising hopes of the commodity exports from India. Going by current trends, India’s cotton exports can touch 65 lakh bales (170 kg each) and it can help reduce the country’s huge carryover stocks from last season. However, Cotton Association of India (CAI) President Atul Ganatra said export demand is currently slow due to novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) lockdown in Europe and few more countries. His association has pegged exports at 54 lakh bales this season. The Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) has permitted those who buy cotton from it through e-auctions, to lock in the cotton prices. In spot market, Cotton dropped by -10 Rupees to end at 21050 Rupees. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 4.36% to settled at 6291 while prices down -30 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 21310 and below same could see a test of 21260 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 21430, a move above could see prices testing 21500.
Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 21260-21500.
* Cotton dropped as cotton procurement by the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) has almost come to a stop.
* Cotton procurement under the minimum support price (MSP) programme has reduced with prices going up.
* Cotton arrivals are staggered with around 210 lakh bales having already arrived into the market with another 140-150 lakh bales remaining with farmers.
* In spot market, Cotton dropped by -10 Rupees to end at 21050 Rupees.
Chana
Chana yesterday settled down by -1.11% at 4468 as Nafed’s unstable chana releasing strategy continues to affect market directly at a time when area is up by 5 % and the new crop is hardly one and a half month away. Pulses sowing area jumped by nearly 109% to 8.55 lh. Chana acreage has soared by 115% to 8.03 lh. Nafed continued to fix reserve price and changed it frequently from Rs 5600 to Rs. 5100, again Rs. 5100 to Rs. 4875. Apart from it has offered 5 to 10 % discount over previous MSP on particular centers. As offtake from central pool is lower, Nafed may decrease price further to vacate storage space for new procurement. It would not allow chana cash market to go up beyond a certain level. Delhi chana is being traded at Rs4550-4650. Demand is weak. Weather condition in Jan –Feb remains crucial. The latest data shows that the total area of pulses has increased by 7% to 141 lakh hectares. More sowing is done in Maharashtra, Odisha and Jharkhand as compared to last year. Gram cultivation has increased by about 10%. NAFED to sell Gram PSS Rabi-2020 stock from all the States at or above base prices of Rs. 5100 per quintal in the month of December 2020, it offers an initial quantity of 1.5 LMT of Gram, for the month of December 2020. In Delhi spot market, chana dropped by -35.4 Rupees to end at 4485.85 Rupees per 100 kgs. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.08% to settled at 33860 while prices down -50 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 4445 and below same could see a test of 4421 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4509, a move above could see prices testing 4549.
Trading Ideas:
* Chana trading range for the day is 4421-4549.
* Chana dropped as Nafed’s unstable chana releasing strategy continues to affect market directly at a time when area is up by 5 %
* Pulses sowing area jumped by nearly 109% to 8.55 lh.
* Nafed continued to fix reserve price and changed it frequently from Rs 5600 to Rs. 5100, again Rs. 5100 to Rs. 4875.
* In Delhi spot market, chana dropped by -35.4 Rupees to end at 4485.85 Rupees per 100 kgs.
