Jeera trading range for the day is 12895-13495 - Kedia Advisory
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Gold
Gold yesterday settled down by -1.25% at 48720 as India slashed the import duties on gold to 7.5% from 12.5%, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said, as the world's second biggest gold consumer tries to bring down smuggling of the precious metal. Gold and silver presently attract a basic customs duty of 12.5%. Since the duty was raised from 10% in July 2019, prices of precious metals have risen sharply. To bring it closer to previous levels, we are rationalizing custom duty on gold and silver. China's 2020 gold consumption dropped by 18.3% from a year earlier to 820.98 tonnes, the China Gold Association said, as the coronavirus outbreak choked gold processing and dented retail consumption. Gold output fell 3.91% to 365.34 tonnes last year, according to the association. Physical gold demand eased in top consumer China this week as coronavirus-led restrictions dampened retail buying ahead of the Chinese New Year. Dealers sold gold at anywhere between a discount of $4 and a premium of $4 an ounce over benchmark spot gold prices, versus $0.50-$4 premiums last week. India saw modest gold demand, with retail buyers encouraged by a dip in domestic rates to their lowest in over a month earlier. Premiums rose to about $2.5 an ounce over official domestic prices, inclusive of 12.5% import and 3% sales levies, from $1 last week. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.09% to settled at 12304 while prices down -617 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 47375 and below same could see a test of 46030 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 49891, a move above could see prices testing 51062.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 46030-51062.
* Gold prices dropped as India slashed the import duties on gold to 7.5% from 12.5%.
* Fed Powell said the risks are in the near term as the vaccine programme ramps up and new variants threaten to spread more quickly
* Physical gold demand eased in top consumer China this week as coronavirus-led restrictions dampened retail buying ahead of the Chinese New Year.
Silver
Silver yesterday settled up by 5.68% at 73666 after social media posts last week called for retail investors to flood into the market and push up prices of the precious metal. India slashed the import duties on silver to 7.5% from 12.5%, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said, as the world's second biggest gold consumer tries to bring down smuggling of the precious metal. Gold and silver presently attract a basic customs duty of 12.5%. Since the duty was raised from 10% in July 2019, prices of precious metals have risen sharply. Silver has risen since Thursday, when posts began circulating on Reddit urging retail investors to buy silver mining stocks and iShares Silver Trust , an exchange traded fund (ETF) backed by physical silver bars, in a GameStop-style squeeze. Buying an ETF can boost silver prices by increasing the number of shares in the fund and making its operator buy more metal to back them. The gold/silver ratio, which measures the number of silver ounces needed to buy an ounce of gold, fell to its lowest since 2014. Speculators upped their bullish positions in COMEX gold and silver contracts in the week to Jan. 26, data showed. Meanwhile, 10 moderate Republican U.S. senators urged President Joe Biden on Sunday to significantly downsize his sweeping $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief package. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 11.99% to settled at 14950 while prices up 3960 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 72068 and below same could see a test of 70471 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 74844, a move above could see prices testing 76023.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 70471-76023.
* Silver soared after social media posts last week called for retail investors to flood into the market and push up prices of the precious metal.
* India slashed the import duties on silver to 7.5% from 12.5%, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said
* Silver has risen since Thursday, when posts began circulating on Reddit urging retail investors to buy silver mining stocks and iShares Silver Trust
Crude oil
Crude oil yesterday settled up by 2.23% at 3905 with sentiment boosted by vaccination programs getting underway in hard-hit countries and output cuts by major producers like Saudi Arabia. U.S. oil output rose 692,000 barrels per day (bpd) in November last year to 11.124 million bpd, the first time it has surpassed 11 million bpd since last April, according to a monthly report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). At the same time, demand for distillate fuels such as diesel was down 7.1% from a year earlier and gasoline demand was off by 13.3%.Money managers cut their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions in the week to January 26, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said. The speculator group cut its combined futures and options position in New York and London by 9,821 contracts to 347,492 during the period. Top oil exporter Saudi Arabia is expected to lower its official selling prices (OSPs) for Asian buyers in March, the first cut in three months, tracking falling benchmark prices and coronavirus-induced demand weakness. Five sources at Asian refiners on average expected the March OSP for the flagship Arab Light grade to fall by 16 cents a barrel, with their forecasts ranging from no change to a 30 cent cut. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 33.42% to settled at 2475 while prices up 85 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 3846 and below same could see a test of 3788 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 3941, a move above could see prices testing 3978.
Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 3788-3978.
* Crude oil prices edged higher with sentiment boosted by vaccination programs getting underway in hard-hit countries and output cuts by major producers like Saudi Arabia.
* U.S. oil output rises above 11 million bpd in Nov for first time since April – EIA
* Money managers cut their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions in the week to January 26, the U.S. CFTC said
Nat.Gas
Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 8.77% at 208.3 on forecasts for much colder weather and higher heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. Despite the increased cold, spot power and gas prices for Monday in New York and New England fell after hitting their highest since at least December for Friday. Data provider Refinitiv said output in the lower 48 U.S. states averaged 91.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in January. Traders said that was down from December's eight-month high of 91.4 bcfd due in part to freezing of some wells. Output hit an all-time monthly high of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019. Refinitiv projected average gas demand, including exports, would rise from 128.4 bcfd this week to 138.1 bcfd next week as the weather turns colder. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants averaged 10.4 bcfd so far in January. Traders said that was down from December's 10.7 bcfd monthly record because flows to Cheniere Energy Inc's Sabine Pass plant in Louisiana and Freeport LNG's plant in Texas declined a bit due to a combination of fog and pipeline maintenance. Despite the small decline in the amount of gas flowing to the LNG export plants, buyers around the world continue to purchase near record amounts of U.S. gas because prices in Europe and Asia remain much higher than in the United States. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 64.79% to settled at 11407 while prices up 16.8 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 196.6 and below same could see a test of 185 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 215, a move above could see prices testing 221.8.
Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 185-221.8.
* Natural gas jumped on forecasts for much colder weather and higher heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.
* Despite the increased cold, spot power and gas prices in New York and New England fell after hitting their highest since at least December for Friday.
* The amount of gas flowing to U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants averaged 10.4 bcfd so far in January.
Copper
Copper yesterday settled down by -0.42% at 593.9 pressured by demand worries after data showed easing manufacturing activity in top consumer China. In January, China's factory activity grew at the slowest pace in months hit by a wave of domestic coronavirus infections and falling export orders amid a surging global pandemic and rising costs, surveys showed. Premiums for imports of copper into China have jumped to their highest in more than five months as rising waves cause disruption to shipments from top producer Chile. The northern port of Angamos, which handles cathode exports for state-run copper producer Codelco, has been closed for most of January due to a sea swell, affecting a significant amount of shipments, two sources with knowledge of the matter said, declining to be identified due to the sensitivity of the matter. Codelco, which ships at least 100,000 tonnes per month of cathodes – a basic form of copper used to make rods and tubes – out of Chile, did not immediately answer a request for comment. Chile's manufacturing output ticked up 0.4% year on year in December, government statistics agency INE said, driven by a rise in food processing, mainly dairy products, and in demand for furniture and fixtures from the retail sector. Meanwhile the South American country's copper output declined 8.7% to 506,891 tonnes in December, INE said. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -14.43% to settled at 3215 while prices down -2.5 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 585.4 and below same could see a test of 576.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 602.2, a move above could see prices testing 610.4.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 576.8-610.4.
* Copper dropped pressured by demand worries after data showed easing manufacturing activity in top consumer China.
* China copper premiums spike as swell disrupts supply from Chile
* China copper premiums top $70/T; some supply deferred to March
Zinc
Zinc yesterday settled down by -0.1% at 205.7 as data showed manufacturing activity in China growing at a slower pace in January. The Biden administration's hope of reaching a $1.9 trillion bailout agreement between the two parties was frustrated, and the Democratic Party will start the stimulus legislation alone. In terms of data, the number of second-hand housing contracts in the US declined in December. Household consumption expenditure in the US declined for the second consecutive month in December. It is estimated that the People's Bank of China (PBOC) will make a net investment of 1.7 trillion yuan before CNY, and the liquidity environment will return to a reasonable and sufficient level, thus rapidly improving market expectations. China's refined zinc output stood at 553,500 mt in December, falling 8,800 mt or down 1.57% on month and up 3.06% on year. In the full 2020, output totalled 6.1 million mt, up 4.44% from 2019. Zinc smelters produced 78,700 mt of zinc alloy in December, down 3.78% from the previous month. China's refined zinc output in December basically met expectations. Treatment charges (TCs) for domestic 50 grade zinc concentrate continued to decline in December. Domestic smelters rarely reduced production or turned into maintenance due to the shortage of zinc concentrate supply. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.19% to settled at 1662 while prices down -0.2 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 203.7 and below same could see a test of 201.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 208.1, a move above could see prices testing 210.4.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 201.6-210.4.
* Zinc prices dropped as data showed manufacturing activity in China growing at a slower pace in January.
* The Biden administration's hope of reaching a $1.9 trillion bailout agreement between the two parties was frustrated
* The PBOC will make a net investment of 1.7 trillion yuan before CNY, and the liquidity environment will return to a reasonable
Nickel
Nickel yesterday settled up by 0.83% at 1297.4 as support seen after Nickel ore inventories across all Chinese ports decreased 520,000 wmt from January 22 to 8.09 million wmt as of January 29. Support also seen helped by signs of growth in the U.S. economy as the International Monetary Fund validated bets on a solid recovery in demand this year by raising its forecasts for global economic growth. US President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion pandemic relief proposal faces hurdles as Republicans voiced concerns over the cost and lobbied for a smaller plan targeting vaccine distribution. Mounting coronavirus cases and caution ahead of the US Federal Reserve's policy meeting this week has dulled appetite for risk, lending support to the dollar. Data showed U.S. consumer confidence rose moderately in January amid lingering concerns about the COVID-19 pandemic. The Fed meeting is coming to an end, and the market expects that the Fed will keep the current interest rate unchanged. Dove expectations and the worry that the new round of stimulus bill in the US will be delayed will put some pressure on futures. According to customs data, in December 2020, China's nickel ore imports totalled 3.17 million mt (wmt and dmt mixed), a decrease of 11.2% month on month and 26.6% year on year. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 5.52% to settled at 1624 while prices up 10.7 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1275.7 and below same could see a test of 1254.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1313.2, a move above could see prices testing 1329.1.
Trading Ideas:
* Nickel trading range for the day is 1254.1-1329.1.
* Nickel prices gained as support seen after Nickel ore inventories across all Chinese ports decreased 520,000 wmt
* The IMF raised its growth forecast for the global economy this year.
* Data showed U.S. consumer confidence rose moderately in January amid lingering concerns about the COVID-19 pandemic.
Aluminium
Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.59% at 161.3 as LME cash aluminium traded at a $4-a-tonne discount from the three-month contract, flipping from three days in the premium zone, indicating that nearby supply tightness has eased. Global debt likely reached 98% of economic output at the end of 2020 as governments poured in nearly $14 trillion in fiscal support to battle the coronavirus pandemic, the International Monetary Fund said, urging that fiscal support stay in place until recovery is firmly underway. China's aluminium imports in December rose 40.5% from the previous month, customs data showed, snapping three months of declines and extending 2020's position as a record year. The world's biggest aluminium producer, usually has little need for overseas supply but a rapid demand recovery after the coronavirus outbreak saw Shanghai prices surge above London, opening up an arbitrage for cheaper imports. The arb closed in the final quarter, but December arrivals of unwrought aluminium and aluminium products were still the highest since September at 265,569 tonnes, the General Administration of Customs data showed. Imports – which include both primary aluminium and unwrought alloy – surpassed the previous annual record, set in 2009, in just 11 months of 2020, with China turning net importer in July and August for the first time in over a decade. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 11.51% to settled at 785 while prices down -0.95 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 159.8 and below same could see a test of 158.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 163.7, a move above could see prices testing 166.1.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 158.3-166.1.
* Aluminium prices dropped as LME cash aluminium traded at a $4-a-tonne discount from the three-month contract, indicating that nearby supply tightness has eased
* China's aluminium imports in December rose 40.5% from the previous month, customs data showed
* Global primary aluminium output rose in December to 5.67 million tonnes, up 4.22% year on year, data from IAI showed.
Mentha oil
Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -1.02% at 969.2 due to demand from cosmetics and toiletries sector in India. The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market. The market has been faced with the lack of migrant labor, supply chain disruptions, shutdown of manufacturing activities, to name a few. Support also seen on the expectation that India’s fragrance industry which had been slow, now slowly gaining the positive momentum post the COVID unlock down. Headed towards a new decade, the fragrance industry has received a much needed boost with the acceptance of trendy dhoop sticks and dhoop cones which has seen an increased 20% demand day by day. The global aroma chemicals market is likely to record a steady CAGR of about 4% during the assessment period of 2020-2030. Growing demand for aroma chemicals in the food & beverage and fragrance industry will underpin the growth of the market. Strict regulations in relation to artificial flavours are complimenting to the expansion of natural aroma chemicals in the food sector. Out of India's total mentha oil exports, nearly 55% goes to China while 16% goes to the US and around 5% goes to Singapore. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -1.9 Rupees to end at 1101.5 Rupees per 360 kgs. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.78% to settled at 74 while prices down -10 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 958.7 and below same could see a test of 948.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 978.2, a move above could see prices testing 987.1.
Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 948.1-987.1.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -1.9 Rupees to end at 1101.5 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil prices dropped due to demand from cosmetics and toiletries sector in India.
* The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market.
* The global aroma chemicals market is likely to record a steady CAGR of about 4% during the assessment period of 2020-2030.
Soyabean
Soyabean yesterday settled down by -0.9% at 4602 amid worry over slim demand from poultry after the bird flu outbreak. The poultry industry is the main consumer of soya and many private poultry players have a direct contract with farmers for supply of feed. BV Mehta, executive director of the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEA), said that poultry consumes about 5 million tonnes of soya every year and despite the bird flu, soya prices would not come down drastically. “Soya constitutes about 30 per cent of poultry feed every month. If the domestic demand dips, we are looking for additional export. We don’t want to increase export by reducing supply to the domestic market, but if local demand fails to pick up we will enhance export,” said Mehta. China's soybean imports hit a record high in 2020, customs data showed, after crushers ramped up purchases amid improved margins and healthy demand from the country's rapidly recovering pig sector. China, the world's top soybean buyer, bought 100.33 million tonnes of the oilseed in 2020, up 13% from 88.51 million tonnes in 2019, according to the General Administration of Customs, the highest annual imports on record. December's imports came in at 7.524 million tonnes, down 27% from 9.54 million tonnes a year ago. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 32 Rupees to 4697 Rupees per 100 kgs. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.78% to settled at 123495 while prices down -42 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 4563 and below same could see a test of 4524 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4668, a move above could see prices testing 4734.
Trading Ideas:
* Soyabean trading range for the day is 4524-4734.
* Soyabean prices dropped amid worry over slim demand from poultry after the bird flu outbreak.
* SEA said that poultry consumes about 5 million tonnes of soya every year.
* China's soybean imports hit a record high in 2020, after crushers ramped up purchases amid improved margins and healthy demand
* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 32 Rupees to 4697 Rupees per 100 kgs.
Ref.Soyaoil
Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled down by -0.17% at 1103.6 on profit booking after prices gained amid supply concerns due to poor weather conditions in Latin America and strong demand from China. The sowing of oilseed crops has increased to 81.80 lakh hectares in the current Rabi whereas till this time last year, it was sown only in 77.79 lakh hectares. NOPA members, which handle about 95% of all soybeans processed in the United States, were estimated to have crushed a near-record 185.175 million bushels of soybeans last month. Soyoil supplies among NOPA members at the end of December were seen rising for a third straight month to 1.712 billion pounds, compared with 1.558 billion pounds at the end of November and 1.757 billion pounds at the end of December 2019. Under World Trade Organization WTO rules, each country has been allowed to levy import-export duty on oil and oil. But there is no equality in this, as a result, the exporting countries of edible oils keep reducing the export duty according to their convenience and requirement, which causes damage to countries like India. India has been empowered to impose a maximum import duty of up to 45 percent on soybean oil and up to 300 percent on palm oil under WTO rules. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1105 Rupees per 10 kgs. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.45% to settled at 37535 while prices down -1.9 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1084 and below same could see a test of 1064 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1121, a move above could see prices testing 1138.
Trading Ideas:
* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1064-1138.
* Ref soyoil dropped on profit booking after prices gained amid supply concerns due to poor weather conditions in Latin America and strong demand from China.
* The sowing of oilseed crops has increased to 81.80 lakh hectares in the current Rabi whereas till this time last year, it was sown only in 77.79 lakh hectares.
* NOPA members, which handle about 95% of all soybeans processed in US, were estimated to have crushed a near-record 185.175 mln bushels
* At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1105 Rupees per 10 kgs.
Crude palm Oil
Crude palm Oil yesterday settled up by 1.37% at 982.6 on better-than-expected December data and as higher tariffs on Indonesian crude palm exports made the edible oil from Malaysia more attractive. Meanwhile, Malaysia reported better-than-expected exports in December, expanding 10.8% from a year earlier on higher shipments of manufactured goods and agricultural products, particularly palm oil, government data showed. India slashed the base import price of crude palm oil by $36 to $1,013 per tonne, the government said in a statement. Prices also gained amid boosted by supply concerns. Disappointing Malaysia export figures are still lingering in the market, offsetting worries of supply disruption due to heavy rain and floods. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for January fell 37.2 percent to 1,059,225 tonnes from 1,685,958 tonnes shipped during December. Malaysia's commodities ministry forecast crude palm oil production at 19.7 million tonnes in 2021, rising from 19.14 million tonnes last year. "This is due to the expected expansion of mature oil palm areas as well as the effects of dry weather affecting the production of fresh palm fruit bunches, and subsequently crude palm oil production," Minister Mohd Khairuddin Aman Razali said in a statement. In spot market, Crude palm oil gained by 13.8 Rupees to end at 955.3 Rupees. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.95% to settled at 7012 while prices up 13.3 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 950.8 and below same could see a test of 919.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1003.7, a move above could see prices testing 1024.9.
Trading Ideas:
* CPO trading range for the day is 919.1-1024.9.
* Crude palm oil prices gained on better-than-expected December data and higher tariffs on Indonesian crude palm exports
* India slashed the base import price of crude palm oil by $36 to $1,013 per tonne, the government said in a statement.
* Malaysia's Jan palm oil exports fall 37.2 pct – ITS
* In spot market, Crude palm oil gained by 13.8 Rupees to end at 955.3 Rupees.
Mustard Seed
Mustard Seed yesterday settled down by -0.34% at 5585 as year on year, the planted area of mustard has increased by 6.7 percent approximately. The latest Government data shows that the planted area in Mustard or RM seed has so far reached 73.25 Lakh hectares as against 68.64 Lakh hectares during last year’s corresponding period. The government aims to take the area under mustard to around 80 lakh hectares this year, under the Oilseeds Mission program. The mustard crop continues providing better prices to farmers than the MSP till now. India’s 2020-21 mustard crop may touch 100 lakh ton-level due to higher sowing and conducive weather. The sowing of oilseed crops has increased to 81.80 lakh hectares in the current Rabi whereas till this time last year, it was sown only in 77.79 lakh hectares. At the national level, the total production area of rabi crops increased to 620.71 lakh hectare on January 1, 2021, compared to 603.15 lakh hectare to 17.56 lakh hectare or 2.91 percent and the general average area from 620.27 lakh hectare to 44 thousand hectare in the same period last year. The latest data from the Union Ministry of Agriculture shows that this time the production of oilseeds crops was 75.93 lakh hectare as compared to the last season. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 52.15 Rupees to end at 6213.65 Rupees per 100 kg. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -9.58% to settled at 12930 while prices down -19 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 5544 and below same could see a test of 5502 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5644, a move above could see prices testing 5702.
Trading Ideas:
* Rmseed trading range for the day is 5502-5702.
* Mustard seed dropped as year on year, the planted area of mustard has increased by 6.7 percent approximately.
* The latest Government data shows that the planted area in Mustard has so far reached 73.25 Lakh hectares
* India’s 2020-21 mustard crop may touch 100 lakh ton-level due to higher sowing and conducive weather. Sowing
* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 52.15 Rupees to end at 6213.65 Rupees per 100 kg.
Turmeric
Turmeric yesterday settled down by -2.32% at 6402 due to excess stocks which will be 50-60% of the excess in the current year as carry forward in the next year. However downside seen limited amid expectation of decrease in Turmeric sown area in the kharif sowing season 2020 across Nizamabad and Marathwada regions. Covid-19 raised expectations regarding the consumption of turmeric as a body immune enhancer, but it did not last long. Poor quality of arrivals is another reason for the drop in demand. Therefore, many traders in Erode started buying turmeric from the markets of Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra as the prices were low there. Despite 2% freight, they are saving 5% on costs. Apprehensions are there that water logging and higher moisture due to recent rains in October in major Turmeric growing regions of Telangana, Maharashtra, Karnataka is likely to have adverse impact on overall productivity of Turmeric. Stockiest are getting active and started purchasing actively due to factors like decreasing sowing area and increasing demand. On the export front, India exported around 0.86 lakh tonnes of Turmeric in April-August, 2020 which is 51% higher than April-August, 2019 at 0.57 lakh tonnes. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6309.1 Rupees gained 3.55 Rupees. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.69% to settled at 8740 while prices down -152 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 6308 and below same could see a test of 6212 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6562, a move above could see prices testing 6720.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 6212-6720.
* Turmeric dropped due to excess stocks which will be 50-60% of the excess in the current year as carry forward in the next year.
* However downside seen limited amid expectation of decrease in Turmeric sown area across Nizamabad and Marathwada regions.
* Covid-19 raised expectations regarding the consumption of turmeric as a body immune enhancer, but it did not last long
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6309.1 Rupees gained 3.55 Rupees.
Jeera
Jeera yesterday settled down by -2.34% at 13120 as the season progresses in Gujarat, the increase in Rabi sowing continues. The total sowing of cumin in Gujarat has been over 4,64,469 hectares, compared to 4,35,657 hectares in the same period last year and the three-year average of 4,06,141 hectares in the state. Prices are likely to decline due to a reduction in export demand amidst substantial carryover stocks. There has also been a decrease in demand from domestic stockists as the arrival of new crops is awaiting in the market. Meanwhile, prices are under pressure due to better sowing prospects this year. As the ongoing rabi sowing progress and overall demand in wholesale markets in steady with bulk buyers are looking at the prospect of a heay crop in current harvest, keeping the undertone in futures mostly weak over last one month or so. The latest data showed that acreage under Jeera in leading producing state of Gujarat was at 4.64 lakh hectates (lh), marking a jump of around 11% compared to the same time last year. Meanwhile some support can be seen as statement from the Spices Board said export of spices, which had fetched ₹12,273.81 crore in the first half of the current fiscal between April and September, had grown by 19 per cent compared to the corresponding period last year. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -40.6 Rupees to end at 13105.55 Rupees per 100 kg. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.11% to settled at 1332 while prices down -315 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 13005 and below same could see a test of 12895 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 13305, a move above could see prices testing 13495.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 12895-13495.
* Jeera dropped as the season progresses in Gujarat, the increase in Rabi sowing continues.
* Prices are likely to decline due to a reduction in export demand amidst substantial carryover stocks.
* There has also been a decrease in demand from domestic stockists as the arrival of new crops is awaiting in the market.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -40.6 Rupees to end at 13105.55 Rupees per 100 kg.
Cotton
Cotton yesterday settled up by 0.67% at 21090 as customs duty on cotton increased to 10%. However upside seen limited cotton procurement by the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) has almost come to a stop, top officials at the CCI said. Cotton procurement under the minimum support price (MSP) programme has reduced with prices going up. Cotton arrivals are staggered with around 210 lakh bales having already arrived into the market with another 140-150 lakh bales remaining with farmers. The CCI has procured 85 lakh bales and may procure another 5-10 lakh bales. USDA projecting lower opening stocks, production and ending stocks this season (October 2020-September 2021), raising hopes of the commodity exports from India. Going by current trends, India’s cotton exports can touch 65 lakh bales (170 kg each) and it can help reduce the country’s huge carryover stocks from last season. However, Cotton Association of India (CAI) President Atul Ganatra said export demand is currently slow due to novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) lockdown in Europe and few more countries. His association has pegged exports at 54 lakh bales this season. The Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) has permitted those who buy cotton from it through e-auctions, to lock in the cotton prices. In spot market, Cotton gained by 20 Rupees to end at 20850 Rupees. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.53% to settled at 6632 while prices up 140 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 20960 and below same could see a test of 20840 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 21220, a move above could see prices testing 21360.
Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 20840-21360.
* Cotton prices gained as customs duty on cotton increased to 10%.
* However upside seen limited cotton procurement by the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) has almost come to a stop, top officials at the CCI said.
* Cotton procurement under the minimum support price (MSP) programme has reduced with prices going up.
* In spot market, Cotton gained by 20 Rupees to end at 20850 Rupees.
Chana
Chana yesterday settled down by -0.16% at 4493 as Nafed’s unstable chana releasing strategy continues to affect market directly at a time when area is up by 5 % and the new crop is hardly one and a half month away. Pulses sowing area jumped by nearly 109% to 8.55 lh. Chana acreage has soared by 115% to 8.03 lh. Nafed continued to fix reserve price and changed it frequently from Rs 5600 to Rs. 5100, again Rs. 5100 to Rs. 4875. Apart from it has offered 5 to 10 % discount over previous MSP on particular centers. As offtake from central pool is lower, Nafed may decrease price further to vacate storage space for new procurement. It would not allow chana cash market to go up beyond a certain level. Delhi chana is being traded at Rs4550-4650. Demand is weak. Weather condition in Jan –Feb remains crucial. The latest data shows that the total area of pulses has increased by 7% to 141 lakh hectares. More sowing is done in Maharashtra, Odisha and Jharkhand as compared to last year. Gram cultivation has increased by about 10%. NAFED to sell Gram PSS Rabi-2020 stock from all the States at or above base prices of Rs. 5100 per quintal in the month of December 2020, it offers an initial quantity of 1.5 LMT of Gram, for the month of December 2020. In Delhi spot market, chana dropped by -35.4 Rupees to end at 4473.95 Rupees per 100 kgs. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.95% to settled at 34100 while prices down -7 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 4475 and below same could see a test of 4457 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4518, a move above could see prices testing 4543.
Trading Ideas:
* Chana trading range for the day is 4457-4543.
* Chana gained as Nafed’s unstable chana releasing strategy continues to affect market directly at a time when area is up by 5 %
* Pulses sowing area jumped by nearly 109% to 8.55 lh.
* Nafed continued to fix reserve price and changed it frequently from Rs 5600 to Rs. 5100, again Rs. 5100 to Rs. 4875.
* In Delhi spot market, chana dropped by -35.4 Rupees to end at 4473.95 Rupees per 100 kgs.
