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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.24% at 51506 as investors held off on big bets ahead of U.S. inflation data later this week that could steer the Federal Reserve's rate hike strategy. Investors are also looking ahead to a key US CPI report on Thursday, hoping it will confirm the downward trend in inflation since July and ease pressure on the Federal Reserve to continue tightening aggressively. Meanwhile, an escalating Covid resurgence in China dimmed hopes for an economic reopening and a rebound in demand in the world's second largest market for gold jewelry next to India. Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams cited the relative stability of longer-run inflation expectations as good news as the U.S. central bank continues to work to get price pressures back to the desired level. Physical gold demand in India eased with jewellers awaiting a dip in domestic prices to stock up for the wedding season following a festival rush, while premiums in China stay elevated due to lack of fresh quotas. Dealers in India were charging a premium of up to $3 an ounce over official domestic prices, down from last week's premium of $3.5. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -5.9% to settle at 7639 while prices are down -124 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 51305 and below same could see a test of 51105 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 51715, a move above could see prices testing 51925.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 51105-51925.
* Gold stalls as traders strap in for U.S. inflation verdict
* Fed's Williams flags relative stability of longer run inflation expectations
* India activity slows post Diwali rush; China demand steady

Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -0.64% at 61561 as the dollar edged higher as investors monitored results from the U.S. mid-term election. Early results from the elections showed Republicans are likely to narrowly win control of the U.S. House. Equity markets are betting on the possibility of a divided government that could prevent major policy changes. Investors also await the U.S. consumer price inflation report due on Thursday, which might suggest the path for interest rates ahead. Sales of silver jewellery from major consumer China have been under pressure from Covid-related restrictions for over two years and a slowdown in the global economy is reducing the consumption of electronics and automobiles. The dollar rose as investors awaited the outcome of the mid-term elections in the United States. Americans vote today in crucial midterm elections that could decide the political future of both President Joe Biden and his predecessor Donald Trump. U.S. Treasury yields held steady as focus shifted to the U.S. consumer inflation report, due on Thursday that could shed more clues on the Fed's monetary policy tightening stance. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index in the United States fell to a three-month low of 91.3 in October of 2022, compared to 92.1 in September. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -6.42% to settle at 15863 while prices are down -398 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 61112 and below same could see a test of 60664 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 62111, a move above could see prices testing 62662.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 60664-62662.
* Silver dropped as the dollar edged higher as investors monitored results from the U.S. mid-term election.
* Early results from the elections showed Republicans are likely to narrowly win control of the U.S. House.
* Equity markets are betting on the possibility of a divided government that could prevent major policy changes.

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -4.07% at 7064 as Covid-related uncertainties in China and a larger-than-expected build in US crude inventories dampened the demand outlook. China’s escalating virus resurgence stoked fears of potential new lockdowns, dashing hopes for a gradual economic reopening and rebound in energy demand. Still, the supply outlook remains tight as OPEC+ reduced output by 2 million barrels a day in November, while the European Union ban on Russian oil is set to take effect in December. U.S. crude inventories rose by 5.6 million barrels for the week ended Nov. 4. That compared with a draw of 6.5M barrels reported by the API for the previous week. The API data also showed that gasoline inventories rose by 2.5M barrels last week, and distillate stocks decreased by 1.7M barrels. U.S. crude production and petroleum demand will both rise in 2022 as the economy grows, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). EIA projected that crude production will rise to 11.83 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2022 and 12.31 million bpd in 2023 from 11.25 million bpd in 2021. That compares with a record 12.29 million bpd in 2019. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 57.59% to settle at 9145 while prices are down -300 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6986 and below same could see a test of 6908 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7201, a move above could see prices testing 7338.

Trading Ideas:

* Crude oil trading range for the day is 6908-7338.
* Crude oil dropped as Covid-related uncertainties in China and a larger-than-expected build in US crude inventories dampened the demand outlook.
* China’s escalating virus resurgence stoked fears of potential new lockdowns, dashing hopes for a gradual economic reopening
* U.S. crude inventories rose by 5.6 million barrels - API

Natural Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -4.5% at 482.3 on forecasts for less cold weather in late November. the market also remained hyper focused on rumors that the Freeport liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plant in Texas may not return in November since it has not yet filed its return to service plan with federal regulators. Demand for gas will rise once Freeport returns. Futures were also under pressure due to what will likely be federal reports showing much bigger-than-usual gas storage builds this week and next, and expectations that Subtropical Storm Nicole will strengthen into a hurricane before hitting the East Coast of Florida Wednesday night and then moving up the U.S. East Coast toward Georgia and the Carolinas on Friday. U.S. natural gas production and demand will rise to record highs in 2022, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). EIA projected dry gas production will rise to 98.07 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2022 and 99.69 bcfd in 2023 from a record 94.57 bcfd in 2021.The agency also projected gas consumption would rise from 84.01 bcfd in 2021 to 88.39 bcfd in 2022 before sliding to 85.08 bcfd in 2023. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 14.07% to settle at 10262 while prices are down -22.7 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 460.4 and below same could see a test of 438.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 511, a move above could see prices testing 539.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Natural gas trading range for the day is 438.6-539.8.
* Natural gas fell on forecasts for less cold weather in late November.
* The market also remained hyper focused on rumors that the Freeport LNG export plant in Texas may not return in November
* U.S. natgas output, demand to hit record highs in 2022

Copper

Copper yesterday settled up by 0.34% at 679.45 benefiting from the retreat of the US dollar as concerning US economic confidence data strengthened the case for a lower terminal rate by the Federal Reserve. Chinese officials vowed to stick to the zero-Covid policy, erasing hopes that Beijing would start easing restrictions and denting demand expectations for industrial inputs. Still, prices remain well above the $3.5 mark that was consistent through the start of the fourth quarter, supported by stimulus pledges from the PBoC and looming supply concerns. Commodity trader Trafigura warned that global copper stocks have fallen to record lows, with current inventories enough to supply world consumption for just 4.9 days. Freeport-McMoran was also vocal about shortage risks, stating that current low prices do not reflect the tightness in the physical market. China imported 404,414 tonnes of unwrought copper and copper products in October, down 1.5% from a year earlier, data from the General Administration of Customs showed. The country exported 479,278 tonnes of unwrought aluminium and aluminium products, including primary, alloy and semi-finished aluminium products, in October. Chile's Codelco, has proposed a premium of $140 a tonne for 2023 supplies to at least two Chinese customers, a 33.3% increase from this year. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -3.67% to settle at 5272 while prices are up 2.3 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 671.8 and below same could see a test of 664.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 687.2, a move above could see prices testing 695.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 664.2-695.
* Copper gained as dollar dropped as concerning US confidence data strengthened the case for a lower terminal rate by the Federal Reserve.
* China Oct copper imports at 404,414 tonnes
* Chile's Codelco proposes 33% price hike for Chinese copper buyers for 2023

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -2.01% at 260.25 as investor hopes of an economy rebound faded after top consumer China reaffirmed its stance on strict zero-COVID policy. Chinese authorities, however, reaffirmed its stance on stringent restrictions to control coronavirus outbreaks, causing metals prices to retreat. Poor economic data from China also dented risk sentiment and appetite for metals. Data showed that the China refined zinc output in October fell slightly short of expectation and stood at 514,100 mt, up 2.02% or 10,200 mt MoM and up 14,800 mt or 2.96% YoY. From January to October 2022, the combined refined zinc output stood at 4.93 million mt, a decrease of 2.48% year-on-year. China's trade surplus was at USD 85.2 billion in October 202, little changed from a surplus of USD 84.8 billion in the same month the prior year, missing market forecasts of a surplus of USD 95.95 billion. Exports fell 0.3% yoy, the first drop since May 2020, amid lackluster overseas demand as cost pressures grew globally; while imports shrank at a faster 0.7%, the first decline since August 2020 as domestic demand weakened amid strict COVID curbs. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 8.88% to settle at 2341 while prices are down -5.35 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 257.2 and below same could see a test of 254.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 265.2, a move above could see prices testing 270.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 254.1-270.1.
* Zinc eases as China sticks to strict pandemic policy
* Poor economic data from China also dented risk sentiment and appetite for metals.
* China refined zinc output in October fell slightly short of expectation and stood at 514,100 mt, up 2.02%

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -2.02% at 201.7 on after China's latest economic data and a jump in COVID-19 cases fuelled worries about demand, although tight global supplies provided some support to the metal. China's factory gate prices for October dropped for the first time since December 2020, and consumer inflation moderated. Rising COVID-19 cases could again slow down industrial activities and, in turn, weigh on demand. China's producer prices fell 1.3% yoy in October 2022, compared with market estimates of a 1.5% drop and after a 0.9% rise in September. This was the first decrease in factory gate prices since December 2020, reflecting disruptions to production and deteriorating domestic demand amid strict COVID curbs. China's annual inflation dropped to 2.1% yoy in October 2022 from 2.8% in the prior month, compared with market consensus of 2.4%. This was the lowest figure since May, due to a slowdown in cost of both food and non-food. Recently, some aluminium plants in Henan were affected by factors such as the advent of the heating season, the low aluminium price and poor profitability, and it is rumoured that they would again cut the production. Following Sichuan and Yunnan, Henan has once again joined the production reduction club. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -11.79% to settle at 4869 while prices are down -4.15 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 199.4 and below same could see a test of 197.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 206.1, a move above could see prices testing 210.5.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 197.1-210.5.
* Aluminium prices fell on after China's latest economic data and a jump in COVID-19 cases fuelled worries about demand
* China producer prices drop for 1st time in near 2 years
* China inflation rate falls more than expected

Mentha oilMentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.7% at 963.7 as mentha exports during Apr-Aug 2022 has dropped by 14.27 percent at 886.53 tonnes as compared to 1034.14 tonnes exported during Apr-Aug 2021. Exports in the month of August 2022 were around 238.04 tonnes as against 155.04 tonnes in July 2022 showing a rise of 53.53%. In the month of August 2022 around 238.04 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 227.27 tonnes in August 2021 showing a rose of 4.74%. Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted. Support also seen amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Spot market, support seen after IMD issues Yellow Alert in key sowing area ; light-moderate rain to continue till Sept 4 impacting arrival in the mandi. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 14.4 Rupees to end at 1132.9 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -2.55% to settle at 1031 while prices are down -6.8 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 960.1 and below same could see a test of 956.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 969.5, a move above could see prices testing 975.3.

Trading Ideas:

* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 956.5-975.3.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 14.4 Rupees to end at 1132.9 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil prices settled down as exports during Apr-Aug 2022 has dropped by 14.27 percent
* August exports were around 238.04 tonnes showing a rise of 53.53% compared to July 2022.
* However, Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted.

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 1.05% at 7534 as unseasonal rains in some parts of the country have affected the crops. Arrivals has been dropped by 26% Y-o-Y due to lower production as about 11248 tonnes of turmeric arrived at APMC mandies across India in Sep’22 compared to 15758 tonnes of previous year for corresponding month. As per Andhra Pradesh agricultural department, as on 06th October 2022 Turmeric sowing activity completed around 16,921 hectares as compared to last year same period 19,376 hectares, down by 12.67% till date. Turmeric exports during Apr-August 2022 has rose by 15.35 percent at 74,393.62 tonnes as compared to 64,493.34 tonnes exported during Apr- August 2021. In the month of August 2022 around 12,147.89 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 12,810.36 tonnes in July 2022 showing a drop of 5.17%. In the month of August 2022 around 12,147.89 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 11,617.90 tonnes in August 2021 showing a rise of 4.56%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7343.4 Rupees gained 38.95 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 5.31% to settle at 8025 while prices are up 78 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7428 and below same could see a test of 7324 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7598, a move above could see prices testing 7664.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7324-7664.
* Turmeric rose as unseasonal rains in some parts of the country have affected the crops.
* As per Andhra Pradesh agricultural department, turmeric sowing activity completed around 16,921 hectares, down by 12.67% till date from last year.
* Marathwada region has been serving as a round-the-year supply centre for Turmeric since past couple of years.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7343.4 Rupees gained 38.95 Rupees.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 0.02% at 25165 due to moisture conditions as a result of higher rainfall sowing may be delayed by 10 to 15 days current year. Current year Jeera sowing is likely to start from October last week or November first week in Gujarat growing regions. However, reports sowing started in some parts of Rajasthan as moisture conditions is less and completed around 2% to 3% in the key growing regions. Current year sowing area likely to increase in Rajasthan and Gujarat growing regions. Jeera exports during Apr-August 2022 has dropped by 26.44 percent at 91,505.49 tonnes as compared to 1,24,390.31 tonnes exported during Apr- August 2021. In the month of August 2022 around 24,448.33 tonnes jeera was exported as against 19,866.18 tonnes in July 2022 showing a rise of 18.74%. In the month of August 2022 around 24,448.33 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 17,460.60 tonnes in August 2021 showing a rise of 40.02%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. Jeera production was seen at 725,651 tn, down 8.8% on year due to lower acreage in Rajasthan and Gujarat, the key producer, according to data from Spices Board India. According to fourth advanced estimates by Gujarat government, jeera production is seen fall by 44.5 per cent to 221500 tonnes in 2021-22 on yoy basis In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -130 Rupees to end at 24736.1 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 21.76% to settle at 6027 while prices are up 5 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 25000 and below same could see a test of 24835 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 25310, a move above could see prices testing 25455.
Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 24835-25455.
* Jeera settled flat paring gains seen due to moisture conditions as a result of higher rainfall sowing may be delayed by 10 to 15 days current year.
* Current year sowing area likely to increase in Rajasthan and Gujarat growing regions.
* All-India Jeera production is expected to fall in the Marketing year 2022-23 by around 33% to 3 lakh tonnes on y-o-y basis due to lower sowings.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -130 Rupees to end at 24736.1 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled up by 1.86% at 32850 as cotton production is expected to fall dramatically in Telangana as a result of the four months of incessant rain and pest attacks. While cotton output is expected to be low, cotton quality is also likely to be affected by the same factors. Cotton farmers have demanded a minimum support price (MSP) of ?12,000 a quintal during the current season, saying the cost of production has increased significantly, while yields have dropped. India is likely to produce 34.4 million bales of cotton in the 2022/23 season that started on Oct. 1, up 12% from a year ago after farmers expanded the crop area. India’s cotton output for the season ended September 30, 2022, fell to 307.5 lakh bales (against 360.13 lakh bales estimated at the beginning of the season in October last year. This is the lowest since 2007-08, when the production was 307 lakh bales. WASDE report said world trade is projected to be nearly 1 million bales lower from September, with declines in imports by China, Pakistan, Mexico, Turkey and Vietnam. The agency lowered its U.S. exports forecast by 100,000 bales to 12.5 million bales, while also cutting export estimates for Australia, Brazil, India, Benin, Cote d’Ivoire, Greece and Mexico. "In the 2022/23 world balance sheet this month, consumption is 3.0 million bales lower and ending stocks are 3.1 million bales higher," the USDA said. In spot market, Cotton gained by 420 Rupees to end at 32180 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 3.71% to settle at 2122 while prices are up 600 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 32200 and below same could see a test of 31550 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 33240, a move above could see prices testing 33630.

Trading Ideas:

* Cotton trading range for the day is 31550-33630.
* Cotton gained cotton production is expected to fall dramatically in Telangana as a result of the four months of incessant rain and pest attacks.
* The pink worm harmed the cotton flock and will have an impact on output.
* However, India is likely to produce 34.4 million bales of cotton in the 2022/23 season, up 12% from a year ago
* In spot market, Cotton gained  by 420 Rupees to end at 32180 Rupees.

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