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India's power demand during May 1-17 is estimated at 196 GW and it is higher than expected as the demand is driven by sustained warmer-than-normal weather, said S&P Global Commodity Insights.

Temperatures for the first half of the month were 2 degrees Celsius higher year-on-year for India, while certain regions, such as Delhi, were 4 degrees C higher.

"The May development is a continuation of the situation in April, when a temperature-driven increase in power demand set a new all-time high record and averaged 194 GW. The hot weather in Delhi is expected to get a relief over the next few days as rain is forecast for May 20-24."

S&P Global Commodity Insights assumes normal temperatures going forward and expects power demand for May to September at 182 aGW, which is an increase of 10 aGW year on year.

In May 2021, there was a nationwide lockdown for several weeks, which limited power demand.

India is expected to import 11-13 million mt of thermal coal in April and May 2022 ahead of the monsoon season. Imports during summer of 2022 is expected to average around 14 million tonne per month through September, though significant downside risk remains to this forecast.

"Seaborne imports continue to be constrained by elevated seaborne spot price levels throughout 2022 and this forecast remains above the previous year average of 12 million tonne per month for the same period."