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Key Highlights

* India's exports of castor oil rose 18.7% on year to nearly 650,000 tn in 2020-21 (Apr-Mar), said B.V. Mehta, executive president, The Solvent Extractors' Association of India. Exports were at 547,646 tn in 2019-20.

* The overall export of castor meal during April 2020 to March 2021 decreased sharply and provisionally reported at 419,864 tons compared to 538,956 tons during the same period of previous year i.e. down by 22%, , according to data released by the (SEA) Solvent Extractors' Association of India. Meanwhile, India's castor meal exports down by 5.64 % MoM from 29,580 tn to 27, 909 tones in April .

* Castor seed production in the country is expected to fall to 1.78 mln tn in 2020-21 (JulJun) from the previous estimate of 1.90 mln tn, according to the third survey commissioned by The Solvent Extractors' Association of India.

* Production of castor seed in the country is likely to fall by 2.6% on year to 1.90 mln tn in 2020-21 (Jul-Jun), according to a survey conducted by the Solvent Extractors' Association of India. The production was pegged at 1.95 mln tn last year. The farm ministry has pegged castor seed production at 1.72 mln tn, down from 1.85 mln tn last year.

* According to the first advance estimates for 2020-21 (Jul-Jun), castor seed output is seen at 1.724 mln tn compared with 1.8 mln tn in the fourth advance estimates for 2019-20, according to the data released by the farm ministry. While, according to traders, crop is seen at 1.5-1.6 mln tn.

* Farmers have sown castor seed across 792,000 ha in 2020-21 (Jul-Jun), down 16% from a year ago.

* According to traders, carryover stocks were seen at around 500,000 tn as on December 2020 against 600,000 tn same period last year.

* According to the first advance estimates for 2020-21 (Jul-Jun), castor seed output is seen at 1.7 mln tn down by 5.6% compared with 1.8 mln tn in the fourth advance estimates for 2019-20, according to the data released by the farm ministry.

Commentary on Castor seed

* June NCDEX traded marginally higher in the last week due to strong export demand for castor oil from traditional buyer such as China. China is building stocks of castor oil.

* However, major upside moves were capped on back of poor export demand for meals during the last financial year and during the last month. Higher carry over stocks limit major upside moves as well.

* However, fall in acreage during this season is likely to support prices. Moreover, timely onset of monsoon and overall progress of rainfa

Technical view

* If prices sustain to trade above 4990 could see upside moves 5120/5320/5450/5600 levels.

* However, any break below 4800 could see profit booking towards 4700/4500 levels.

* Meanwhile, weekly RSI (14) is treading higher at 64 suggesting buying in the near term

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