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Key Highlights

Farmers in the country have sown kharif crops across 112.2 mln ha in 2021-22 season, as against 112.0 mln ha in the same period a year ago, data from the farm ministry. Farmers have sown castor across 771,000 ha in the 2021-22 season, down by 2% from a year ago. ·

India's castor meal exports in October fell by 2.3% at 34,084 tn, compared with 34,881 tn a month ago, according to data by The Solvent Extractors Association of India. ·

India's exports of castor oil rose by 34% to 52,105 tn in October compared to previous month, according to SEA. Total exports were at 594,390 tn during this marketing year. ·

The four-month southwest monsoon season, which started in June, ended on September 30. The country received normal rainfall, at 99% of the long-period average, after two straight years of above-normal precipitation. India received abovenormal rainfall in September, which made up for the shortfall in rains in Jul-Aug and reduced the overall deficit. During the monsoon season this year, rainfall was at 874.6 mm or 99% of the long-period average of 880.6 mm for the four month period. ·

According to the first advance estimates for 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), castor seed output is seen at 1.598 mln tn as against the target of 1.867 mln tn ·

Castor seed production in the country is expected to fall to 1.78 mln tn in 2020-21 (Jul-Jun) from the previous estimate of 1.90 mln tn, according to the third survey commissioned by The Solvent Extractors' Association of India. Production of castor seed in the country is likely to fall by 2.6% on year to 1.90 mln tn in 2020-21 (Jul-Jun), according to a survey conducted by the Solvent Extractors' Association of India. The production was pegged at 1.95 mln tn last year. The farm ministry has pegged castor seed production at 1.72 mln tn, down from 1.85 mln tn last year. ·

According to the fourth advance estimates for 2020-21 (Jul-Jun), castor seed output is seen at 1.651 mln tn compared with 1.842 mln tn in 2019-20, according to the data released by the farm ministry. While, according to traders, crop is seen at 1.5-1.6 mln tn.

Commentary on Castor seed

December NCDEX castor seed prices traded higher due to strong export demand for castor oil. India's exports of castor oil rose by 34% to 52,105 tn in October compared to previous month, according to SEA. However, major upside was capped by rise in new crop arrivals in the spot market. Moreover, fall in export demand for meal weighed down sentiments as well. According to market sources, higher demand for castor oil and along with concern over lower carry over stocks is likely to support prices in the near term. Pick up in export demand for oils and domestic demand are the major factors may support the prices in the near term.

Technical view

Major trend remains positive, but it is required to break the resistance of 6784 levels to continue upside moves targeting 6930/7060 or even higher to 7200 levels. Meanwhile, weekly RSI (14) is treading higher at 81 in overbought zone signalling intermittent profit booking. Hence, unable to sustain could see some profit booking towards 6250 levels.

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