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We see 40% of India’s adult population likely to be fully vaccinated by November, largely through indigenous vaccine production. By January 2022, another 20% is likely to be vaccinated, thereby covering 60% of the adult population. By the end of this fiscal year, around 80% of the adult population will be vaccinated. It is pertinent to note that the vaccination threshold for herd immunity as defined by one of WHO’s chief scientists, is 60‐70% of the total population.

India’s teething troubles of vaccination coverage are likely to persist over the next month, owing to raw material scarcity for domestic manufacture. Shortage if severe, can dent vaccination drive with 7.5cr of population to be prioritized for second dose (who will be due after stipulated 7 weeks of first dose), putting the first dose to halt and derailing the future vaccination run‐rate.

However, vaccine production should ramp up, June onwards, given that manufacturers are boosting capacities and the US government is likely to ease export restrictions on vaccines and raw materials following the vaccination of significant native populace, over the next 45 days. Considering that India's adult population of 1bn will account for largest market for US vaccines, we see 20‐25% of US vaccine exports heading to India

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