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SBI research report 'Ecowrap' has said that India’s Gross domestic product (GDP) is likely to grow at 1.3 percent (with downward bias) in the fourth quarter of 2020-21 as against NSO (National Statistical Office) projection of a negative (-)1 percent. It also expects GDP decline for the full year (FY 2020-21) to be around 7.3 percent as compared to its earlier prediction of minus 7.4 percent.

According to the report, going by the estimate of 1.3 percent GDP growth, India would still be the fifth-fastest-growing country among 25 nations that have released their GDP numbers so far. It said one likely consequence of any upward revision in FY21 estimates is a concomitant decline in FY22 GDP estimates. Its estimates now indicate that there might be nominal GDP loss of up to Rs 6 lakh crore during Q1 FY22 as compared to loss of Rs 11 lakh crore in Q1 FY21.

The research report further said Real GDP loss would be in the range of Rs 4-4.5 lakh crore and, hence, real GDP growth would be in the range of 10-15 percent (as against RBI forecast of 26.2 per cent).