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Soybean

Highlights:

• India's oilmeal exports jumped 81.6% on year to 321,435 tn in March, according to data released by SEA. For 2020-21 (AprMar), overall exports of oilmeal recovered and provisionally came in at nearly 3.68 mln tn, up 51.2% from the previous year. Soymeal exports were at 146,379 tn in March, against 32,818 tn a year ago. For Apr-Mar, soymeal exports were at 1.56 mln tn compared with 692,883 tn a year ago.

• India's vegetable oil imports rose to around 980,243 tn in March, the Solvent Extractors' Association of India said. During Nov-March, the country imported 5.375 mln tn of vegetable oil.

• The US Department of Agriculture has scaled up its estimate for global oilseed production for 2020-21 to 598.0 mln tn from 595.8 mln tn projected in March. The upward revision is due to higher soybean, rapeseed, and peanut production. The rise is, however, limited due to smaller palm kernel, sunflower seed, and cottonseed crops, the agency said. Global soybean output is estimated at 363.2 mln tn, up by 1.4 mln tn, mainly due to higher production in Brazil. Global soybean crush is estimated 2 mln tn lower at 96 mln tn largely because of a smaller crush in China. World soybean exports are estimated 1.2 mln tn higher at 170.9 mln tn due to robust shipments from Brazil, Russia, and the US. The agency has projected world soybean ending stocks 3.1 mln tn higher at 86.9 mln tn, as purchases from China and Brazil are seen rising. The agency maintained its estimate for soybean output in the US at nearly 112.6 mln tn for 2020-21.

• India's soymeal exports jumped nearly fourfold on year to 220,000 tn in March, The Soybean Processors Association of India data showed. In the same month a year ago, exports were at 58,000 tn. Overseas shipments of the oil meal rose significantly due to strong demand from France, Germany, the Netherlands, and Qatar, traders said. During Oct-Mar, exports jumped to 1.59 mln tn from 423,000 tn a year ago, SOPA data showed.

• Brazilian farmers are poised to reap a record harvest of 132.2 million tonnes of soybeans in 2021 despite a drought that delayed plantings, according to the average of estimates in a poll of 13 analysts.

Commentary on Soybean

• The most active May futures prices in NCDEX rose more than two percent in the last week on reports of firm export demand for soymeal from exporters. Moreover, shortage of soybean supply in the spot markets also supported the gains. Strength in international soybean prices also propped up the domestic soybean futures prices.

• The U.S CBOT soybean prices rose more than one percent on back firm export demand for soybean from China amid lower stocks. However, expectation of rise in acreage in U.S acreage in expense of corn along with concern over Chinese demand in future due to lower crushing and expectation of higher output in Brazil is likely to limit major upside moves.

• Money managers reduced their net long in CBOT soybean futures and options to 142,258 contracts from 154,305 a week earlier. That is nearly their least bullish soybean stance since August.

Mustard Seed

Highlights:

* India's 2020-21 (Jul-Jun) mustard output is seen rising to 22.6% on year to 8.95 mln tn, according to a joint survey by the Central Organisation for Oil Industry and Trade and the Mustard Oil Producers' Association. Government estimated that mustard output during 2020-21 at 10.4 mln tn, against 9.1 mln tn a year ago. India's 2020-21 (Jul-Jun) mustard acreage was up by 6.7% on year at 7.3 mln ha as of 18th Jan., according to farm ministry data.

* India's oilmeal exports jumped 81.6% on year to 321,435 tn in March, according to data released by SEA. For FY21, mustard meal exports were at 1. 1 mln tn compared with 961,312 tn a year ago

* The Rajasthan government started procurement of mustard from farmers at the minimum support price from Apr 1.

* Crushing of mustard seed rose 60% on year to 1.2 mln tn in the country, in March, according to private data from Marudhar Trading Agency. Mills had crushed 750,000 tn of the oilseed during the same period last year. The sharp surge in crushing was primarily due to a rise in arrivals of the fresh crop in spot markets. Arrivals were at 1.77 mln tn in March. Crushing was also higher than 550,000 tn in February. As of February, the carryover stock was at 100,000 tn. As of Mar 31, farmers, processors, stockists and state-run agencies had a stock of around 6.85 mln tn, lower than 7.35 mln tn from a year ago.

* India's vegetable oil imports rose to around 980,243 tn in March, the Solvent Extractors' Association of India said. During Nov-March, the country imported 5.375 mln tn of vegetable oil.

* India is likely to produce around 10 mln tn of mustard in 2020-21 (JulJun), up 35% from a year ago due to higher acreage and favourable weather conditions, according to the Solvent Extractors' Association of India. India's mustard output in the current crop year is likely to rise 15% to a record high of 8.4 mln tn, as per the median of estimates of 14 market participants, primarily due to higher yield and favourable weather conditions.

* The government has fixed the minimum support price at 4,650 rupees per 100 kg for 2020-21 (Apr-Mar) marketing season against 4,425 rupees per 100 kg the previous year

Commentary on Mustard Seed

* The May Mustard seed futures prices rose more than twelve percent in the last week largely mainly due to rise in demand for mustard oil along with lower stocks. Rise in demand for mustard meal from domestic markets also gained momentum. Moreover, rise in domestic soybean prices due to robust demand for soymeal from exporters also supported the gains. However, major gains is limited due to expectation of higher mustard output.

* India's 2020-21 (Jul-Jun) mustard acreage was up by 6.7% on year at 7.3 mln ha as of 18th Jan., according to farm ministry data. The government has targeted an all-time high crop of 12.5 mln tn for this rabi season. India is likely to grow a record 10 mln tn mustard crop in 2020-21 (Jul-Jun), according to Solvent Extractors' Association of India.

* The Indian Council of Agricultural Research - Directorate of Rapeseed-Mustard Research believes that mustard production this year could be between 9.4 mln tn and 12.5 mln tn.

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