Indian rupee seen mostly resilient to yuan-fuelled decline in Asia FX
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The Indian rupee is expected to not to be too affected by the further slide in the Chinese yuan and by the broad weakness in Asian currencies.
Non-deliverable forwards indicate the rupee will open mostly unchanged to the U.S. dollar from 81.95 in the previous session.
"Not sure if we actually open flat like the NDF is indicating. A little bit of move up (on USD/INR) looks more likely to me," a forex spot trader said.
"But yes, rupee most likely will not incur the kind of losses we are seeing in other Asian currencies, based on how things have been."
The yuan continued to struggle versus the U.S. dollar amid a faltering post-pandemic economic recovery and the differing outlook on China and U.S. interest rates. The offshore yuan dropped to 7.2186 to the dollar, a new year-to-date low and is now down, headed for its worst weekly performance since February.
Compared to the 1.3% decline in the offshore yuan, the rupee is flat week-on-week.
Other Asian currencies were down between 0.2% and 0.5%. The dollar index rose above 102.50.
The dollar was helped by the weak risk sentiment in Asia amid worries over China and hawkish central banks.
The Bank of England on Thursday raised rates by a bigger-than-expected half a percentage point to rein in inflation that is the highest among major economies.
Norway's central bank, too, raised its key policy rate by 50 basis points, a larger-than-expected increase. Meanwhile, U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated that more rate hikes were needed to tame sticky inflation.
In U.S. data out on Thursday, initial jobless claims held near their recent highs.
" The series may be beginning to show evidence of gradual weakening in the labor market," which if it materializes will be help in the fight against inflation, ANZ said in a note.
KEY INDICATORS: ** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 82.05 onshore one-month forward premium at 7.5 paise ** USD/INR NSE June futures settled on Thursday at 81.9775 ** USD/INR June forward premium at 1 paisa ** Dollar index up at 102.58 ** Brent crude futures down 0.5% at $73.8 per barrel ** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 3.78% ** SGX Nifty nearest-month futures down 0.1% at 18,813 ** As per NSDL data, foreign investors bought a net $670.9mln worth of Indian shares on Jun. 21
** NSDL data shows foreign investors sold a net $76.2mln worth of Indian bonds on Jun. 21
