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Indian markets could open lower, in line with largely negative Asian markets today and despite mildly positive US markets on Thursday- HDFC Securities

U.S. stocks ended higher on Thursday, boosted by robust U.S. earnings and forecasts, while data showed the economy recovered to pre-pandemic levels in the second quarter.

U.S. gross domestic product grew at an annualized pace of 6.5% in the second quarter, falling short of the average forecast of 9.1% produced by a survey of economists by The Wall Street Journal. Separately, data from the Labor Department showed first-time applications for unemployment benefits fell 24,000 last week to 400,000. Pending home sales fell 1.9% in June, the National Association for Realtors said Thursday. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had projected a 0.5% gain.

Robinhood opened at $38 a share shortly after midday, then lost ground on Nasdaq, marking a lukewarm welcome as shares closed down 8.4%. Oil futures finished at their highest level in more than two weeks, with the U.S. benchmark rising 1.3%, while December gold futures jumped 1.7% to the highest close since June 16.

European stocks hit all-time highs on Thursday after strong earnings from commodity majors, Airbus and a clutch of other companies, while data showing record high euro zone economic sentiment in July added to the positive mood. Estimates from the European Commission showed sentiment in the 19-country single-currency bloc rose to 119.0 points in July, a record since data began to be collected in 1985. Data To Watch today in India - 4pm: India fiscal deficit in rupees for April-June period; 5:30pm: Eight Infrastructure Industries Index for June.

Asian shares slipped on Friday, with a gauge of regional equities set for its biggest monthly drop since the height of global pandemic lockdowns last March. Amazon became the latest mega-cap technology company to post disappointing guidance (post US market close), with a pandemic-fueled surge in ecommerce set to fade and drag on revenue growth. The company said it sees current-quarter net sales coming in at as much as $112 billion, missing estimates for $118.7 billion. Shares fell more than 7% in late trading.

Indian benchmark equity indices broke a three day losing streak on July 29 and closed higher led mainly by metal stocks. Nifty finally closed 0.44% or 69 points higher at 15778.4. Gains in the Asian markets and reassurance by the US Fed about tapering being some time away, assured market participants.

Nifty witnessed a small high low range of 80 points on July 29 despite it being an F&O expiry day. In terms of index, the markets are finding it difficult to breach near term highs. However the broader market continues to do well, boosted partly by Q1FY22 results. Nifty could remain in the 15688-15856 band for the next 1-2 sessions.

Daily Technical View on Nifty

Momentum needs to pick up on upside..

Observation After showing a fine upside recovery from the lows on Wednesday, Nifty shifted into an upmove amidst a range movement on Thursday and closed the day higher by 69 points. After opening on a positive note, Nifty made an attempt to move up in the early mid part of the session. It was not able to surpass above the intraday resistance of 15810 levels and showed range bound movement in the later part of the session.

A small positive candle was formed on the daily chart with minor upper and lower shadow. This pattern indicate slower upside momentum. However, a sustainable move above 15810 levels is likely to pull the Nifty towards the next upside hurdle of 15880-15900 levels in the short term.

The sequence of three sessions of decline and three sessions of upmove is continued with in a broader high low range of the last one month (on the daily chart). Having finished its three sessions of decline on Wednesday, the market is now ready to move up for the next three sessions. Today's upmove could be a first day and one may expect another two days of upmove for the short term, before showing any weakness from the highs.

Nifty as per weekly timeframe chart is showing a larger range movement. The formation of lower shadows in the last three weekly candle at 10w EMA support signal emergence of strong buying on dips. This pattern could eventually result in an upside bounce from the lows. The presence of daily ADX around 10 is also indicating chances of sharp momentum on either side. But, the probability is high on upside.

Conclusion: The short term trend of Nifty seems to have reversed up, but the momentum on the upside is yet to pick up. A decisive move above 15810 levels is likely to pull the market towards 15900 in the next couple of sessions. Intraday support is placed at 15715.

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