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Economic think tank the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) has said that the Indian economy and exports will be moderately impacted in 2023 by weak global demand and recession in large economies. To improve its current account, the country should aim to cut energy import bill. India will pay $270 billion in imports of crude oil and coal, which is about 40 per cent of total merchandise import bill.

GTRI has stated that India must re-energize exploration of local oil fields and enhance production through coal mines. Any development will cut the energy import bill substantially and improve the current account. It also said the US effort to create alternate supply chains excluding China is gradually leading to restructuring of global supply chains and relocation of few large manufacturing firms shows that India is in a good position to benefit from this trend. It said India should do so without compromising its strategic autonomy, adding that in various free trade agreements (FTAs) under negotiations, India should carefully evaluate the impact of new provisions on domestic policies. Developed countries including the US and the EU use such provisions in creating non-tariff barriers against exports from partner countries.

On trade data, it said India's exports are expected to touch $440-450 billion in 2022 despite the global uncertainties as against $ 395 billion in 2021. India's merchandise imports are also likely to be around $ 725 billion in 2022, higher than $ 573 billion in 2021