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India hits new records on the vaccination front

Summary: 68th edition of the COVID-19 files

COVID-19 Situation

* The 7-day moving avg. for daily cases stood at 41k, akin to the last week, but with lower testing WoW

* Kerala is possibly peaking after the surge in cases post the Onam festival

* Active cases stand higher at 0.39mn vs. 0.37mn last week, although off from the recent peak of 0.41mn on 5Sep’21. Almost 60% of these are concentrated in KER (48%) and MH (12%). Mizoram seeing a very sharp rise in active cases, now holds 5th position in all-India active cases (at 13k)

* Daily recoveries-to-daily ratio at 91% vs. 84% towards the end of last week

* The all-India positivity rate 7DMA increased marginally to 2.6% from 2.5% last week; but the number of districts with a positivity rate >10% stands at 35, same as last week

* Share of higher GSDP states in incremental infections fell to a new low of 18%

* Global situation:

* New cases rose by 1.8% this week to 221mn; Cases still rising in the US and UK

* Global active cases at 18.7mn, with almost 47% in the US alone

* The number of days to hit additional 10mn COVID-19 cases remains at 16 days, akin to the last 10mn cases

* New weekly admissions to the hospital has seemingly peaked in the US (at 75% of the previous peak), rising again for the UK.

Vaccination progress

* India has administered >10mn vaccine doses in one day three times in the last 11 days

* The 7DMA for daily vaccine doses administered in Sep’21 so far has inched up to 8.4mn vs. 5.8mn in Aug’21, and 4.2mn in Jul’21

* So far, 38% of the Indian population has been vaccinated with the 1st dose; 12% fully vaccinated

* According to our calculations, India can achieve herd immunity by Oct although the herd immunity argument has been questioned in countries such as US, UK, Spain, France where despite vaccination exceeding 60% of their population, uptick in COVID-19 cases was witnessed

Economic indicators

* First week of Sep’21:

* 2-year CAGR for most economic indicators improved in the first week of Sep’21 vs. Aug’21: Railway freight, vehicle registrations (except 2-W, all in the positive territory now), property registration in Maharashtra

* However, there was a loss in momentum for e-way bills and power consumption

* Google mobility trends for recreation worsened marginally (now at 15% below the Feb’20 benchmark); while it improved for workplaces (13% below Feb’20 levels)

* Overall Aug’21 witnessed an uptick in 2-year CAGR for most economic indicators- e-way bills, railway freight, vehicle registration

* Rural remains steady; improving rainfall (8% below LPA) to sustain momentum in agriculture.

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