India Strategy - 4QFY22 results review: BFSI and Commodities drive earnings By Motilal Oswal
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* Corporate earnings continued to remain healthy in 4QFY22 and instilled a ray of hope, amid the grim situation plagued by the disruptions mentioned above. The MOFSL Universe earnings growth of 21% YoY in 4QFY22, which was the lowest since 3QFY21, came on a high base of 99% growth in 4QFY21. While the aggregate growth appeared impressive, it was hardly broad-based and driven only by three sectors: BFSI, O&G, and Metals.
* More than half of the incremental growth was steered by BFSI, driven by a modest revival in credit growth and improvement in asset quality trends. BFSI, Commodities (Metals & O&G) and IT accounted for 90% of incremental earnings YoY for our coverage universe.
* For 4QFY22, Nifty sales/EBITDA/PAT growth was in line at 23%/16%/21% YoY (v/s our estimates of 28%/19%/23% YoY), respectively, while PBT growth came below our estimate at 22% YoY (v/s our estimate of 28% YoY). Among the Nifty constituents, 42% of the companies beat our PAT estimates, while 26% missed.
* The MOFSL Universe reported sales/EBITDA/PBT/PAT growth of 25%/12%/19%/21% YoY (v/s our estimates of 32%/14%/21%/19% YoY), respectively. Ex-Metals and O&G, MOFSL profits grew 24% YoY v/s our expectation of 21% YoY growth.
* Nifty EPS for FY23E was reduced by 0.7% to INR864 (earlier: INR870) largely due to notable downgrades in ONGC, Hindalco, JSW Steel, and TTMT’s earnings.
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