India Strategy - The Eagle Eye : April 2021 By Motilal Oswal
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India Strategy - The Eagle Eye : April 2021
India outperforms EMs in Mar’21, gains 76% in one-year
* India outperforms EMs in Mar’21
* Defensives make a comeback as Staples and Technology outperform
* Average daily cash volumes fall 19% MoM as implementation of the second phase of peak margins impacts volume
Economy
* GST collections in Mar’21 at record highs
* Current account slips into deficit in 3QFY21 on the back of higher merchandise trade deficit
Markets
* Defensives back in favor as the second wave of COVID-19 impacts economic activity
* Nifty EW outperforms Nifty by 16pp in FY21
* Midcaps and smallcaps outperform Nifty in nine out of 12 months in FY21
Covid-19
* The spread of the second wave is faster than the first wave
* Pace of vaccination picking up and has crossed 80m doses in India
Reflationary Growth
The rise in borrowing costs for AAA and AA rated corporates since the beginning of CY21
* Commodity price inflation led to an increase in US bond yields as the global economy is poised for strong growth in CY21
Valuations, Flows
* Market capitalization-to-GDP ratio at a 10- year-high
* FII inflows continue in Mar’21, stands at USD3b
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