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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.84% at 48200 due to a softer dollar as increasing inflation concerns bolstered bullion's safe-haven appeal. U.S. Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell's comment that inflation could ease next year and the central bank was on track to start tapering its stimulus. Powell said it was not time for the Fed to raise interest rates, especially given employment was still low. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the United States was not losing control of inflation, and inflation could return to normal by the second half of next year. Gold is often considered an inflation hedge, though reduced stimulus and interest rate hikes push government bond yields up, translating into a higher opportunity cost for holding bullion which pays no interest. Furthering pressuring gold, the dollar steadied after its steepest weekly loss in more than a month. A stronger dollar makes bullion less appealing to buyers holding other currencies. Speculators cut their net long positions in gold in the week to Oct. 19, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data showed. Market participants now eye the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting on Thursday. Neither of the two central banks are expected to change policy but market indicators suggested higher inflation than the ECB's guidance. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.12% to settled at 11332 while prices up 403 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 47937 and below same could see a test of 47674 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 48381, a move above could see prices testing 48562.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 47674-48562.

* Gold prices rose due to a softer dollar as increasing inflation concerns bolstered bullion's safe-haven appeal.

* Fed’s Powell's said that inflation could ease next year and the central bank was on track to start tapering its stimulus.

* Powell said it was not time for the Fed to raise interest rates, especially given employment was still low.
 

 

Silver

Silver yesterday settled up by 0.74% at 66139 as the dollar index hit a near one-month low as traders continued to focus on the prospect of interest rate hikes and tightening outside of the United States. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated he is now somewhat more concerned about higher inflation but said it is not yet time to begin raising interest rates. The next FOMC meeting is due on Nov. 2-3. There is a perception that the U.S. central bank is behind the curve and (will be) forced to act as a consequence of more persistent inflationary pressures. Elsewhere, the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank meetings are due on Thursday. Atlanta U.S Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic said he expects high inflation to persist into 2022 and the central bank should raise interest rates by the end of next year. San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly said that recent ‘eye-popping’ inflation readings are driven by supply chain breakdowns and will subside as COVID does, and the Fed’s decision not to raise rates in response is the right one. U.S. business activity increased solidly in October, suggesting economic growth picked up at the start of the fourth quarter as COVID-19 infections subsided, though labor and raw material shortages held back manufacturing. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.84% to settled at 9697 while prices up 483 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 65796 and below same could see a test of 65453 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 66456, a move above could see prices testing 66773.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 65453-66773.

* Silver rose as the dollar index hit a near one-month low as traders continued to focus on the prospect of interest rate hikes and tightening outside of US.

* Fed Chairman Powell indicated he is now somewhat more concerned about higher inflation but said it is not yet time to begin raising interest rates.

* Investor focus now shifts to the Bank of Japan and European Central Bank meetings due on Thursday.
 

 

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 0.45% at 6311 as global supply remained tight amid solid fuel demand in the United States and elsewhere in the world as economies pick up from coronavirus pandemic-induced slumps. After more than a year of depressed fuel demand, gasoline and distillate consumption is back in line with five-year averages in the United States, the world's largest fuel consumer. Meanwhile, U.S. energy firms last week cut oil and natural gas rigs for the first time in seven weeks even as oil prices rose, energy services firm Baker Hughes Co said in its closely followed report. Money managers raised their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions in the week to October 19, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said, underlining strong market sentiment. Oil prices have also been bolstered by worries about coal and gas shortages in China, India and Europe, which spurred fuel-switching to diesel and fuel oil for power. WTI futures contracts are currently in steep backwardation, meaning later-dated contracts trade are at a lower price than the current contract. Normally later months trade at a higher price, reflecting the costs of storing oil. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -13.95% to settled at 6333 while prices up 28 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6254 and below same could see a test of 6196 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6399, a move above could see prices testing 6486.

Trading Ideas:

* Crude oil trading range for the day is 6196-6486.

* Crude oil prices climbed as global supply remained tight amid solid fuel demand in the United States

* Prices have also been bolstered by worries about coal and gas shortages in China, India and Europe, which spurred fuel-switching to diesel and fuel oil for power.

* Speculators raise U.S. crude oil net long positions -CFTC
 

 

Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 11.01% at 452.6 on expectations liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports will rise and forecasts calling for cooler weather and higher heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. Even though the weather will be cooler over the next two weeks, it was still forecast to remain milder than normal through early November. The U.S. price spike also occurred despite a slight decline in global gas prices and an increase in U.S. gas output. Global gas futures, however, continue to trade about six times higher than U.S. prices, keeping demand for U.S. LNG exports strong as utilities around the world scramble to refill stockpiles ahead of the winter heating season and meet current energy shortfalls causing power blackouts in China. Since U.S. gas futures rose to their highest prices since 2008 in early October, speculators have cut their net long positions on the New York Mercantile and Intercontinental Exchanges to their lowest since July 2020 on growing expectations the United States will have more than enough gas in storage for the winter, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Data provider Refinitiv said output in the U.S. Lower 48 states has risen to an average of 92.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in October, up from 91.1 bcfd in September. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 40.17% to settled at 5335 while prices up 44.9 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 427.7 and below same could see a test of 402.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 468, a move above could see prices testing 483.3.

Trading Ideas:

* Natural gas trading range for the day is 402.7-483.3.

* Natural gas soared on expectations LNG exports will rise and forecasts calling for cooler weather and higher heating demand

* Even though the weather will be cooler over the next two weeks, it was still forecast to remain milder than normal through early November.

* The U.S. price spike also occurred despite a slight decline in global gas prices and an increase in U.S. gas output.



Copper

Copper yesterday settled up by 0.46% at 768.5 as inventories in Shanghai exchange warehouses dwindled to their lowest levels since 2009, supporting buyer sentiment and fuelling concerns over global supply shortage. ShFE copper stockpiles fell to 39,839 tonnes, the lowest since June 2009, while LME inventories of the metal were last at 161,550 tonnes, a level unseen since June 22. Money managers boosted their net long positions in COMEX copper contracts to 54,030 contracts, the highest since May 11. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) injected a total CNY 200 billion of seven-day reverse repos into the banking system at an interest rate of 2.2 percent on October 25th. The move aims to countering factors including tax payments and government bond issuance in order to keep banking system liquidity reasonably ample, according to a statement on the website of the central bank. Chile's state-owned Codelco, said it had reached an agreement with its labor union at its small Salvador mine. Codelco said it had reached a 36-month agreement that will not include salary adjustments, but will include a bonus of $4,980 for each union member, in addition to incentive targets. The agreement was supported by 80% of union members, it said. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 11.59% to settled at 3995 while prices up 3.5 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 764.9 and below same could see a test of 761.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 773.3, a move above could see prices testing 778.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 761.3-778.1.

* Copper prices rose as inventories in Shanghai exchange warehouses dwindled to their lowest levels since 2009.

* LME inventories of the metal were last at 161,550 tonnes, a level unseen since June 22.

* Money managers boosted their net long positions in COMEX copper contracts to 54,030 contracts, the highest since May 11.

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled up by 0.39% at 285.2 as the premium of LME cash zinc over the three-month contract was $51 a tonne, suggesting shortage of readily available stocks, as on-warrant zinc inventories fell to 143,575 tonnes, the lowest since July 2020. On the macro front, China government announced to improve the consumption of non-fossil energy, which shall be no less than 80% of the total energy structure, in order to reach carbon neutrality by 2060. Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has lifted the trading margin ratio of some thermal coal futures to 40% in order to regulate coal prices. On the fundamentals, the social inventory in seven major markets in China stood at 145,800 mt, down 1,500 mt from last Friday October 22. The inventory in Shanghai declined as downstream buyers restocked goods on dips. Guangdong saw an increase in stocks as the power rationing in Guangxi loosened and more goods arrived. The stocks in Tianjin trended lower amid limited arrivals and restocking of goods on rigid demand by downstream producers. Inventories in Shanghai, Guangdong and Tianjin fell 600 mt, and inventories across seven Chinese markets decreased 1,500 mt. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 20.78% to settled at 994 while prices up 1.1 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 283.1 and below same could see a test of 280.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 288.9, a move above could see prices testing 292.4.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 280.8-292.4.

*  Zinc prices gained as the premium of LME cash zinc over the three-month contract was $51 a tonne, suggesting shortage of readily available stocks

* On-warrant zinc inventories fell to 143,575 tonnes, the lowest since July 2020.

* The social inventory in seven major markets in China stood at 145,800 mt, down 1,500 mt from last Friday October 22.

 

Nickel

Nickel yesterday settled up by 3.13% at 1578.3 as the NPI prices lingered at high levels amid rising raw materials prices and tight supply, which was bullish for nickel prices. And the stainless steel mills also have more demand for pure nickel as the NPI output in Indonesia dropped. The new energy sector was prosperous with robust demand for nickel, though the supply of nickel sulphate was slightly higher than demand. LME cash nickel was at a premium of $118 a tonne over the three-month contract , its highest since October 2019, indicating tightening nearby supplies as on-warrant stocks dropped to 75,954 tonnes, the lowest since December 2019. Nickel ore inventory at Chinese ports grew 130,000 wmt from a week earlier to 8.45 million wmt as of October 24, the seventh straight week of increase. Total Ni content stood at 66,300 mt. Total inventory at seven major ports stood at around 4.43 million wmt, a rise of 707,000 wmt from a week earlier. While the NPI was more greatly affected by the energy consumption control policy, so its recovery has lagged behind. NPI prices will remain high amid supply shortage caused by slow recovery and high costs. Nickel output from the Philippines, the second-largest producer, is expected to be 10% lower than the annual average due to frequent rainfalls and fewer vessels coming in. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 13.79% to settled at 1535 while prices up 47.9 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1552.5 and below same could see a test of 1526.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1595.8, a move above could see prices testing 1613.2.

Trading Ideas:

* Nickel trading range for the day is 1526.6-1613.2.

* Nickel prices rallied as the NPI prices lingered at high levels amid rising raw materials prices and tight supply, which was bullish for nickel prices.

* LME cash nickel was at a premium of $118 a tonne over the three-month contract, its highest since October 2019, indicating tightening nearby supplies

* On-warrant stocks dropped to 75,954 tonnes, the lowest since December 2019.


Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 0.32% at 234.2 as the current inventory was still at a low level, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was comparatively high. On the macro front, Fed Chair Powell said that the Fed shall begin to dial back the bond purchase soon, but the interest rate hike was still off the table. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) injected a total CNY 200 billion of seven-day reverse repos into the banking system at an interest rate of 2.2 percent on October 25th. The move aims to countering factors including tax payments and government bond issuance in order to keep banking system liquidity reasonably ample, according to a statement on the website of the central bank. Aluminium has been touted as the base metal most impacted by a widespread power curb in China, the world's biggest producer of the metal, due to its energy intensive smelting process. The cost of aluminum surged more than 11% in the first half of October, as the metal has been touted as the most impacted by a widespread power curb in top producer China due to its energy-intensive smelting process. The data showed China's aluminum output in September declined for a fifth consecutive month to the lowest monthly level since June 2020 while aluminum imports rose 2.2% from the previous month. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 32.39% to settled at 2162 while prices up 0.75 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 231.9 and below same could see a test of 229.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 237.3, a move above could see prices testing 240.4.

Trading Ideas:

*  Aluminium trading range for the day is 229.6-240.4.

*  Aluminium gains as the current inventory was still at a low level

* PBoC injected a total CNY 200 billion of seven-day reverse repos into the banking system at an interest rate of 2.2 percent on October 25th.

* Fed Chair Powell said that the Fed shall begin to dial back the bond purchase soon, but the interest rate hike was still off the table.

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.42% at 943.6 on low level buying after prices dropped as demand from consumer side is extremely weak and industrial demand is also not picking up. Prices got support in last few weeks as due to crop failure and low recovery of oil, availability of Mentha oil will be low and demand from industries are expected to improve ahead of winter season. Speculation are also high that production this year will be lower as compare with last year because of two important factors. Major physical market player expects demand to sluggish for next few week as cash crunch seen in spot market, while expectations are high about demand improvement ahead of winter season starts. China is one of the biggest buyer for Indian Mentha, no much buying inquiry from China as mainland China and Hong Kong markets were shut. Speculation are also high that production this year will be lower as compare with last year because of two important factors. Firstly damages due to rain in key area and secondly farmers for the last 2 years where sowing mentha but due to not getting much profit at intervals there had been shift to other crops also. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 45.3 Rupees to end at 1093.7 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 35.99% to settled at 1039 while prices up 3.9 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 939.8 and below same could see a test of 936.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 948.6, a move above could see prices testing 953.7.

Trading Ideas:

* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 936.1-953.7.

* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 45.3 Rupees to end at 1093.7 Rupees per 360 kgs.

* Mentha oil gained on low level buying after prices dropped as demand from consumer side is extremely weak

* Prices got support in last few weeks as due to crop failure and low recovery of oil

* Availability of Mentha oil will be low and demand from industries are expected to improve ahead of winter season.


Soyabean

Soyabean yesterday settled down by -2.66% at 5160 as soyabean production is estimated to rise by 14 per cent to nearly 119 lakh tonnes this year on higher sowing area and likely improvement in productivity, according to industry body SOPA. In its estimate, Soyabean Processors Association of India (SOPA) said that the total area under soybean for the year 2021 is 119.984 lakh hectares. The government's area estimate is 123.677 lakh hectares. In last year's Kharif (summer sow) season, total soyabean acreage stood at 118.383 lakh hectare. China's soybean imports from Brazil in September fell 18% from a year earlier, customs data showed, as poor crush margins limited demand. The world's top buyer of soybeans brought in 5.936 million tonnes of the oilseed from Brazil last month, versus 7.25 million tonnes in the corresponding year-ago period, data from the General Administration of Customs showed. Crushers stepped up purchases last year from top supplier Brazil as a fast recovering pig herd pushed up demand. But their buying has slowed in recent months, as falling hog prices hit margins. U.S. soybean export sales for the week ended Oct. 7 were 2.88 million tonnes, primarily due to sales to China, beating trade expectations, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean dropped -142 Rupees to 5265 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.87% to settled at 85035 while prices down -141 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 5076 and below same could see a test of 4991 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5263, a move above could see prices testing 5365.

Trading Ideas:

* Soyabean trading range for the day is 4991-5365.

* Soyabean dropped as soyabean production is estimated to rise by 14 per cent to nearly 119 lakh tonnes this year

* China's soybean imports from Brazil in September fell 18% from a year earlier, customs data showed, as poor crush margins limited demand.

* Soyabean production is estimated to rise by 14 per cent to nearly 119 lakh tonnes this year

* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean dropped  -142 Rupees to 5265 Rupees per 100 kgs.

 

Soyaoil

Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled down by -0.79% at 1249.7 on profit booking after prices seen supported as the vegetable oil market faces a significant squeeze due to lower output. India slashed its base import tax on crude palm oil, crude soyoil and crude sunflower oil to zero from 2.5%, as the world's biggest vegetable oil buyer tries to cool near-record price rises. The Govt. has decided to impose stock limits on edible oils and oilseeds up to March 31, 2022. This decision has been taken to soften the prices of edible oils in the country and provide relief to consumers. The Ministry said that the stock limits will be decided by the respective state governments depending on local conditions. It has however decided to give exemption to importers and exporters subject to conditions. Oilseeds output is also expected to be down a tad at 23.38 mt as soyabean production was affected by the patchy rains in the key producing States of Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh, respectively. Favorable weather over the weekend boosted U.S. harvest, while exports remain capped by terminals on the U.S. Gulf Coast that continue to struggle with power outages and hurricane-led damage as the country heads into its busiest export season. India's vegetable oil imports are likely to contract for the second straight year, the Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA) said. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1296.95 Rupees per 10 kgs.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.41% to settled at 40735 while prices down -9.9 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1242 and below same could see a test of 1233 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1260, a move above could see prices testing 1269.

Trading Ideas:

* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1233-1269.

* Ref soyoil dropped on profit booking after prices seen supported as the vegetable oil market faces a significant squeeze due to lower output.

* Oilseeds output is also expected to be down a tad at 23.38 mt as soyabean production was affected.

* India’s Sept edible oil stocks at ports and pipelines rose 3.24 percent mom: SEA

* At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1296.95 Rupees per 10 kgs.

Crude palm Oil

Crude palm Oil yesterday settled up by 0.48% at 1121.1 as supply constraints due to the rainy season and strength in rival oils supported the market. Prices are seen rising as the rainy season and coronavirus-linked labour shortage are slowing output in Malaysia. October export data improved amid tight supply worries. The Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers' Association (SPPOMA) estimated Oct. 1-15 production declined 0.2% from the month before in some parts of Malaysia. The Indian Vegetable Oils Producers Association says it is seeing early signs of demand shifting from palm oil to soft oils after India's duty cut made soft oil more attractive. Malaysia's crude palm oil production in 2021 is forecast to decline by 700,000 tonnes to 18.4 million tonnes due to a labour shortage and erratic weather conditions, state agency the Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) said. Neighbouring Indonesia has not faced such labour issues and has expanded its planted area by about 200,000 hectares this year, MPOC chief executive Wan Zawawi Wan Ismail said. Production in the world's largest palm oil producer is projected to rise by 2.5 million tonnes to 45.5 million tonnes, he said. Indonesian palm oil exports in 2021 will likely be much lower than previously forecast, at 34.423 million tonnes, the vice chairman of the Indonesia Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) told. In spot market, Crude palm oil gained by 6.4 Rupees to end at 1145 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.24% to settled at 5360 while prices up 5.4 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 1112.2 and below same could see a test of 1103.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1127, a move above could see prices testing 1132.9.

Trading Ideas:

* CPO trading range for the day is 1103.3-1132.9.

* Crude palm oil gains as supply constraints due to the rainy season and strength in rival oils supported the market.

* Prices are seen rising as the rainy season and coronavirus-linked labour shortage are slowing output in Malaysia.

* The Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers' Association estimated Oct. 1-15 production declined 0.2% from the month before in some parts of Malaysia.

* In spot market, Crude palm oil gained  by 6.4 Rupees to end at 1145 Rupees.

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 0.11% at 7172 following export demand from Europe, Gulf countries and Bangladesh. However upside seen limited amid prospects of better crop this kharif season along with tepid demand. The areas where turmeric has been sown have received adequate rainfall and are expected to produce well in the next season. Due to favorable weather, production is likely to be higher in 2021-22 (July-June) season. Besides, heavy carryover stocks and slack in bulk demand are keeping prices under pressure. In the first 4 months of FY 2021-22, turmeric exports declined by 26% to 53,000 tonnes as compared to the same period last year, but almost at the same level as the 5-year average. Support is expected on the news that due to June and July floods almost 10% crop washed away so we can see 10-15 % less sowing also farmers had shown interested in other crops as prices where more. Pressure also seen as the lockdown restrictions were eased the key Turmeric growing states, including Maharashtra and Telangana reported noticeable increase in mandi arrivals, which augmented physical market supplies and pressurized prices. In the first 6 months of 2021, turmeric exports declined by 3% to 77,300 tonnes compared to the same period last year, but could be higher in the coming months. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7077.25 Rupees dropped -22.75 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.58% to settled at 10590 while prices up 8 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7120 and below same could see a test of 7070 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7218, a move above could see prices testing 7266.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7070-7266.

* Turmeric remained supported following export demand from Europe, Gulf countries and Bangladesh.

* However upside seen limited amid prospects of better crop this kharif season along with tepid demand.

* The areas where turmeric has been sown have received adequate rainfall and are expected to produce well in the next season.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7077.25 Rupees dropped -22.75 Rupees.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 2.35% at 15035 as the export of cumin is increasing continuously and in the coming days there are signs of increasing the export of cumin in a big way. However upside seen limited as adequate stock with traders and farmers may keeping prices under pressure at higher levels. With the forecast of normal rains in the western region during September to November, the sowing of cumin seeds in Gujarat and Rajasthan may increase. In 2021 (January-June), the country has exported more than 1.50 lakh tonnes of cumin as compared to 1.3 lakh tonnes in the same period last year. Purchase of cumin seeds from African and Middle East countries will be diverted from other countries to India this year. Recent estimates state that cumin production has slumped by 60% in Iran’s Razavi Khorasan Province due to severe drought and unusually cold weather coupled with an early spring. Rainfall ranges 63% lower than last year this season so far. Temperatures ranged 3.1-0.4C (37.58-32.72F) lower between October 2020 and April 2021 than in the same period in 2019/2020 according to official statistics. Extensive crop losses seen, the early onset of spring in February also caused serious damage to production. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 133.8 Rupees to end at 14526.65 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.81% to settled at 6060 while prices up 345 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 14805 and below same could see a test of 14570 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 15200, a move above could see prices testing 15360.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 14570-15360.

* Jeera gained as the export of cumin is increasing continuously and in the coming days there are signs of increasing the export of cumin.

* However upside seen limited as adequate stock with traders and farmers may keeping prices under pressure at higher levels.

* India's cumin exports will increase due to less supply from Afghanistan-Syrian

* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 133.8 Rupees to end at 14526.65 Rupees per 100 kg.

 

Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled up by 0.45% at 31000 as Cotton Association of India (CAI), a body of traders, has reduced its estimate of the cotton crop last season (October 2020- September 2021) to 353 lakh bales (each 170 kg) from its previous estimate of 354.5 lakh bales. The final estimate is about 7 lakh bales lower than the 360 lakh bales of crop estimated initially. The total cotton availability for the year is estimated at 488 lakh bales, including an opening stock of 125 lakh bales and import of 10 lakh bales besides the 353 lakh bales of crop. As per the CAI’s cotton balance-sheet for the year, the closing stock is estimated to be 75 lakh bales, which is lower than last year’s estimated 107.5 lakh bales of carryover stock. CAI has increased its cotton consumption estimate for the year by 5 lakh bales to 335 lakh bales from last year’s estimated consumption of 250 lakh bales, showing an increase of 34 per cent over last year. The U.S. Department of Agriculture's (USDA) latest weekly export sales report showed a 41% drop from the previous week in net sales for 2021/2022. In spot market, Cotton gained by 590 Rupees to end at 30350 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 13.38% to settled at 2677 while prices up 140 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 30690 and below same could see a test of 30380 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 31480, a move above could see prices testing 31960.

Trading Ideas:

* Cotton trading range for the day is 30380-31960.

* Cotton prices seen supported as Cotton trade body trims 2020-21 crop estimate to 353 lakh bales

* CAI has increased its cotton consumption estimate for the year by 5 lakh bales to 335 lakh bales

* USDA latest weekly export sales report showed a 41% drop from the previous week in net sales for 2021/2022.

* In spot market, Cotton gained  by 590 Rupees to end at 30350 Rupees.

 

 

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