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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.73% at 52718 as softer-than-expected US inflation data raised hopes that the Fed would slow the pace of rate hikes in the upcoming meetings. The dollar index rose toward 107, rising slightly from near three-month lows after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller warned investors against getting too optimistic over one inflation report, and said that the central bank “still got a ways to go” with interest rate hikes. Waller acknowledged that the Fed may slow the pace of rate increases in the upcoming meetings, but emphasized that markets should focus on the terminal rate which is likely still “a ways off” rather than the pace of each move. Investors are betting that the central bank would moderate the size of their rate hikes to 50 basis points from December after a series of 75 basis point moves in the past four meetings. A spike in domestic prices put off most physical gold consumers in India and prompted dealers to offer discounts for the first time in about a month, with higher rates playing spoilsport in China as well. Dealers offered discounts of $4 an ounce over official domestic prices versus last week's $3 premiums. In top consumer China, premiums eased to $12-$30 an ounce over benchmark spot prices, from last week's $25-$35. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -3.67% to settle at 7185 while prices are up 384 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 52416 and below same could see a test of 52115 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 52902, a move above could see prices testing 53087.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 52115-53087.
* Gold continuing its gains as softer-than-expected US inflation data raised hopes that the Fed would slow the pace of rate hikes in the upcoming meetings.
* Fed’s Waller warned investors against getting too optimistic over one inflation report, and said that the central bank “still got a ways to go” with interest rate hikes
* Investors are betting that the central bank would moderate the size of their rate hikes to 50 basis points from December

Silver

Silver yesterday settled up by 1.46% at 62470 on hopes of slower rate hikes after data showed price pressure cooling in the United States. Despite the cooler-than-expected inflation print for October, Fed officials stated that the central bank is not softening its battle against inflation. Still, silver prices are over 12% higher in November, as data consolidating the easing inflation trend lowered bets on the Federal Reserve's terminal rate. Money markets believe that the Fed will raise its target funds rate by 50bps in its December meeting, slowing from four consecutive 75bps rate hikes delivered since June. While bullion is commonly used to hedge against inflation, higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost to hold non-interest-bearing assets, denting its appeal. The global economic outlook is even gloomier than projected last month, the International Monetary Fund said, citing a steady worsening in purchasing manager surveys in recent months. It blamed the darker outlook on tightening monetary policy triggered by persistently high and broad-based inflation, weak growth momentum in China, and ongoing supply disruptions and food insecurity caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The global lender last month cut its global growth forecast for 2023 to 2.7% from a previous forecast of 2.9%. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 7.39% to settle at 15799 while prices are up 899 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 61767 and below same could see a test of 61065 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 62870, a move above could see prices testing 63271.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 61065-63271.
* Silver continued gains on hopes of slower rate hikes after data showed price pressure cooling in the United States.
* Despite the cooler-than-expected inflation print for October, Fed officials stated that the central bank is not softening its battle against inflation.
* Money markets believe that the Fed will raise its target funds rate by 50bps in its December meeting.

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -2.01% at 6981 dragged down by a firmer U.S. dollar while surging coronavirus cases in China dashed hopes of a swift reopening of the economy for the world's biggest crude importer. Commodities prices rallied after China's National Health Commission adjusted its COVID prevention and control measures to shorten quarantine times for close contacts of cases and inbound travelers. China's demand for oil from top exporter Saudi Arabia also remained weak, with several refiners having asked to lift less crude in December. Separately, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that India can continue buying as much Russian oil as it wants, including at prices above a G7-imposed price cap mechanism, if it steers clear of Western insurance, finance and maritime services bound by the cap. U.S. crude production and petroleum demand will both rise in 2022 as the economy grows, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO). OPEC cut its forecast for 2022 global oil demand growth for a fifth time since April and also trimmed next year's figure, citing mounting economic challenges including high inflation and increases to interest rates. Oil demand in 2022 will rise by 2.55 mbpd, or 2.6%, the OPEC said in a monthly report. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 11.03% to settle at 5766 while prices are down -143 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6868 and below same could see a test of 6756 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7177, a move above could see prices testing 7374.
Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 6756-7374.
* Crude oil falls on China COVID surge and firmer dollar
* China's demand for oil from top exporter Saudi Arabia also remained weak
* OPEC cuts oil demand growth forecast again as economic challenges mount

Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 3.42% at 492.3 on forecasts for colder weather and higher heating demand through the end of November than previously expected. The market remained hyper focused on unproven rumors that the Freeport liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plant in Texas may not return to service until December. Freeport LNG has said repeatedly said the plant, which shut after an explosion on June 8, would return in November. U.S. natural gas storage is expected to end the November-March withdrawal season at 1.432 trillion cubic feet (tcf) on March 31, 2023, the most since 2021, according to consensus forecasts. That compares with 1.401 tcf at the end of the winter withdrawal season in 2022 and a five-year (2018-2022) average of 1.561 tcf. There was 1.801 tcf of gas in storage at the end of March 2021. U.S. natural gas prices at the Henry Hub benchmark in Louisiana will rise to $6.82 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) in 2022, their highest since 2008, before falling to $5.63 in 2023, according to analyst forecasts. Data provider Refinitiv said that average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states has fallen to 98.6 bcfd so far in November, down from a record 99.4 bcfd in October. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -39.74% to settle at 5208 while prices are up 16.3 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 478.9 and below same could see a test of 465.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 513, a move above could see prices testing 533.8.
Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 465.6-533.8.
* Natural gas jumped on forecasts for colder weather and higher heating demand through the end of November than previously expected.
* The market remained hyper focused on unproven rumors that the Freeport LNG export plant in Texas may not return to service until December.
* Freeport LNG has said repeatedly said the plant, which shut after an explosion on June 8, would return in November.

Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -0.82% at 696.5 as hawkish remarks from Fed officials drove investors to reassess how aggressive the central bank may be before ending its tightening cycle, easing expectations of higher industrial demand. However, demand prospects brightened after top consumer China relaxed some of its strict COVID-19 restrictions and announced more support for its troubled real estate sector. Still, copper futures remain over 12% up since the start of November, supported by hopes of higher industrial activity in China and looming supply concerns. Beijing trimmed the quarantine time for individuals in contact with Covid infections despite rising cases, raising hopes that further reopening measures could follow. On the supply side, commodity trader Trafigura warned that global copper stocks have fallen to record lows, with current inventories enough to supply world consumption for just 4.9 days. Freeport-McMoran was also vocal about shortage risks, stating that current low prices do not reflect the tightness in the physical market. Chinese regulators have told financial institutions to extend more support to property developers to shore up the struggling real estate sector. The London Metal Exchange (LME) said it will not ban Russian metal from being traded and stored in its system because a significant portion of the market is still planning to buy the country's metal in 2023. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -11.54% to settle at 5489 while prices are down -5.75 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 692.3 and below same could see a test of 688.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 704, a move above could see prices testing 711.5.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 688.1-711.5.
* Copper eased as Fed officials drove investors to reassess how aggressive the central bank may be before ending its tightening cycle, easing expectations of demand.
* However, demand prospects brightened after top consumer China relaxed some of its strict COVID-19 restrictions and announced more support.
* Chinese regulators have told financial institutions to extend more support to property developers to shore up the struggling real estate sector.
 

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled up by 2.97% at 277.75 after China eased some coronavirus rules, fuelling expectations that it will abandon a zero-COVID policy that has reduced economic activity and demand for metals. Metals prices had already jumped after softer than expected U.S. inflation data suggested the U.S. Federal Reserve could scale back interest rate rises. The news gave hope that major restraints on economic growth could be less severe than feared in the coming months. China's easing included shortening quarantines by two days for close contacts of infected people and for inbound travellers but a full dismantling of COVID controls may be along way off. The country is still struggling to control a wave of infections and recent economic data has been unexpectedly weak. Economies are faltering elsewhere too, with the European Commission forecasting 0.3% euro zone growth next year and Moody's cutting India's growth projection to 4.8% in 2023. Data shows that zinc ingot social inventories across seven major markets in China totalled 60,500 mt as of November 11, up 400 mt from this Monday (November 7) and up 1,000 mt from a week earlier (November 4). In Shanghai, zinc ingots of some brands began to arrive in the market in the middle of the week, while the purchasing demand among downstream buyers declined due to the intensive stockpiling in the previous week. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 25.52% to settle at 3005 while prices are up 8 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 272.5 and below same could see a test of 267.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 281.3, a move above could see prices testing 284.8.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 267.2-284.8.
* Zinc rose after China eased some coronavirus rules, fuelling expectations that it will abandon a zero-COVID policy.
* China's easing included shortening quarantines by two days for close contacts of infected people and for inbound travellers.
* Data shows that zinc ingot social inventories across seven major markets in China totalled 60,500 mt as of November 11, up 400 mt
 

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.94% at 209.8 amid persistent fears of a demand-sapping global recession triggered by an aggressive tightening campaign from major central banks. Top consumer China eased coronavirus-related restrictions, fuelling speculation of a broader relaxation in measures and offering a short-term upbeat outlook for demand. Alcoa, the largest US aluminum producer, has warned investors that high energy and raw material costs and a fall in aluminum prices are putting pressure on margins. On the supply side, LME has decided against banning Russian metal from being traded and stored in its warehouses because a substantial share of the market is still planning to buy the country's metal in 2023. The London Metal Exchange (LME) said it will not ban Russian metal from being traded and stored in its system because a significant portion of the market is still planning to buy the country's metal in 2023. These metals and the companies that produce them have not been targeted by sanctions imposed on some Russian companies after the Kremlin sent troops into Ukraine. The capacity recovery in Guangxi and commissioning of new capacities in Guizhou and Inner Mongolia fell short, easing the supply pressure. In China, aluminium ingot inventory kept falling by 23,000 mt from last Thursday to 553,000 mt as of Monday November 14, a new low. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -8.79% to settle at 5469 while prices are down -2 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 207.9 and below same could see a test of 206.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 212.6, a move above could see prices testing 215.5.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 206.1-215.5.
* Aluminum dropped amid persistent fears of a demand-sapping global recession triggered by an aggressive tightening campaign from major central banks.
* The capacity recovery in Guangxi and commissioning of new capacities in Guizhou and Inner Mongolia fell short, easing the supply pressure.
* LME will not ban Russian metal from its system
 

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.79% at 956.2 as mentha exports during Apr-Aug 2022 has dropped by 14.27 percent at 886.53 tonnes as compared to 1034.14 tonnes exported during Apr-Aug 2021. Exports in the month of August 2022 were around 238.04 tonnes as against 155.04 tonnes in July 2022 showing a rise of 53.53%. In the month of August 2022 around 238.04 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 227.27 tonnes in August 2021 showing a rose of 4.74%. Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted. Support also seen amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Spot market, support seen after IMD issues Yellow Alert in key sowing area ; light-moderate rain to continue till Sept 4 impacting arrival in the mandi. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -0.9 Rupees to end at 1109.3 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -9.57% to settle at 888 while prices are down -7.6 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 950.7 and below same could see a test of 945.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 963.2, a move above could see prices testing 970.1.
Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 945.1-970.1.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -0.9 Rupees to end at 1109.3 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil prices dropped as exports during Apr-Aug 2022 has dropped by 14.27 percent
* August exports were around 238.04 tonnes showing a rise of 53.53% compared to July 2022.
* However, Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted.

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 1.42% at 7710 as unseasonal rains in some parts of the country have affected the crops. Arrivals has been dropped by 26% Y-o-Y due to lower production as about 11248 tonnes of turmeric arrived at APMC mandies across India in Sep’22 compared to 15758 tonnes of previous year for corresponding month. As per Andhra Pradesh agricultural department, as on 06th October 2022 Turmeric sowing activity completed around 16,921 hectares as compared to last year same period 19,376 hectares, down by 12.67% till date. Turmeric exports during Apr-August 2022 has rose by 15.35 percent at 74,393.62 tonnes as compared to 64,493.34 tonnes exported during Apr- August 2021. In the month of August 2022 around 12,147.89 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 12,810.36 tonnes in July 2022 showing a drop of 5.17%. In the month of August 2022 around 12,147.89 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 11,617.90 tonnes in August 2021 showing a rise of 4.56%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7481.9 Rupees gained 78.1 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 5.71% to settle at 9355 while prices are up 108 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7628 and below same could see a test of 7544 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7788, a move above could see prices testing 7864.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7544-7864.
* Turmeric prices gained in last some sessions as unseasonal rains in some parts of the country have affected the crops.
* As per Andhra Pradesh agricultural department, turmeric sowing activity completed around 16,921 hectares, down by 12.67% till date from last year.
* Marathwada region has been serving as a round-the-year supply centre for Turmeric since past couple of years.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7481.9 Rupees gained 78.1 Rupees.
 

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled down by -0.28% at 24775 amid reports sowing started in some parts of Rajasthan as moisture conditions is less and completed around 5% to 10% in the key growing regions. Current year sowing area likely to increase in Rajasthan and Gujarat growing regions. However, due to moisture conditions as a result of higher rainfall sowing may be delayed by 10 to 15 days current year. Current year Jeera sowing is likely to start from October last week or November first week in Gujarat growing regions. Jeera exports during Apr-August 2022 has dropped by 26.44 percent at 91,505.49 tonnes as compared to 1,24,390.31 tonnes exported during Apr- August 2021. In the month of August 2022 around 24,448.33 tonnes jeera was exported as against 19,866.18 tonnes in July 2022 showing a rise of 18.74%. In the month of August 2022 around 24,448.33 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 17,460.60 tonnes in August 2021 showing a rise of 40.02%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. Jeera production was seen at 725,651 tn, down 8.8% on year due to lower acreage in Rajasthan and Gujarat, the key producer, according to data from Spices Board India. According to fourth advanced estimates by Gujarat government, jeera production is seen fall by 44.5 per cent to 221500 tonnes in 2021-22 on yoy basis. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -9.6 Rupees to end at 24447.65 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 7.27% to settle at 7257 while prices are down -70 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 24400 and below same could see a test of 24025 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 25050, a move above could see prices testing 25325.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 24025-25325.
* Jeera dropped amid reports sowing started in some parts of Rajasthan as moisture conditions is less and completed around 5% to 10%
* Current year sowing area likely to increase in Rajasthan and Gujarat growing regions.
* All-India Jeera production is expected to fall in the Marketing year 2022-23 by around 33% to 3 lakh tonnes on y-o-y basis due to lower sowings.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -9.6 Rupees to end at 24447.65 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled down by -1.81% at 32620 on profit booking after prices gained in last some sessions as cotton production is expected to fall dramatically in Telangana as a result of the four months of incessant rain and pest attacks. While cotton output is expected to be low, cotton quality is also likely to be affected by the same factors. Cotton farmers have demanded a minimum support price (MSP) of ?12,000 a quintal during the current season, saying the cost of production has increased significantly, while yields have dropped. India is likely to produce 34.4 million bales of cotton in the 2022/23 season that started on Oct. 1, up 12% from a year ago after farmers expanded the crop area. India’s cotton output for the season ended September 30, 2022, fell to 307.5 lakh bales (against 360.13 lakh bales estimated at the beginning of the season in October last year. This is the lowest since 2007-08, when the production was 307 lakh bales. WASDE report said world trade is projected to be nearly 1 million bales lower from September, with declines in imports by China, Pakistan, Mexico, Turkey and Vietnam. The agency lowered its U.S. exports forecast by 100,000 bales to 12.5 million bales, while also cutting export estimates for Australia, Brazil, India, Benin, Cote d’Ivoire, Greece and Mexico. "In the 2022/23 world balance sheet this month, consumption is 3.0 million bales lower and ending stocks are 3.1 million bales higher," the USDA said. In spot market, Cotton gained by 610 Rupees to end at 33240 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -5.4% to settle at 2120 while prices are down -600 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 32290 and below same could see a test of 31960 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 33220, a move above could see prices testing 33820.
Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 31960-33820.
* Cotton dropped on profit booking after prices gained in last some sessions as cotton production is expected to fall dramatically in Telangana
* The pink worm harmed the cotton flock and will have an impact on output.
* However, India is likely to produce 34.4 million bales of cotton in the 2022/23 season, up 12% from a year ago
* In spot market, Cotton gained  by 610 Rupees to end at 33240 Rupees.

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