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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.22% at 46908 in the run-up to the release of key U.S. economic data including readings on inflation that could dictate the path of Federal Reserve monetary policy. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said she would still like the central bank to begin tapering asset purchases this year, joining a chorus of policymakers stating plans to begin scaling back support despite weaker jobs growth in August. Focus will be on the monthly U.S. consumer price index – the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation – due on Tuesday. Physical gold demand in India was subdued despite a correction in bullion prices, while consumers in most other Asian hubs also stayed on the sidelines as they hoped for a clearer trend in global prices. India's gold premiums over official domestic prices inclusive of the 10.75% import and 3% sales levies unchanged at $2 an ounce. Gold-backed exchange traded funds (ETF) experienced net outflows in August of 22.4 tonnes, as North American outflows outweighed inflows into European and Asian funds, the World Gold Council (WGC) said. In a report, the WGC said that gold faced headwinds early in August as the dollar briefly strengthened and rising Treasury yields weighed on investment flows, triggering momentum selling shortly thereafter. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -7.33% to settled at 9226 while prices up 102 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 46769 and below same could see a test of 46629 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 47046, a move above could see prices testing 47183.
Trading Ideas:
Gold trading range for the day is 46629-47183.
Gold prices rose in the run-up to the release of key U.S. economic data including readings on inflation that could dictate the path of Fed monetary policy.
Fed’s Mester said she would still like the central bank to begin tapering asset purchases this year
Focus will be on the monthly U.S. consumer price index the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation due on Tuesday.
 

Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -0.46% at 63299 as dollar seen supported after comments from several Fed officials supported a reduction in stimulus measures this year. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker said that he supports moving toward a tapering process sooner rather than later. Investors now await U.S. consumer inflation figures for August this week amid concerns the Federal Reserve and other central banks might move sooner to nudge interest rates up from the ultra-low levels. U.S. wholesale inflation data published late last week showed prices climbed an annual 8.3 percent last month, marking the biggest annual gain since the Labor Department started calculating the 12-month number in 2010. Elsewhere, Japan's wholesale inflation hovered near a 13-year high in August as the country prepares for a leadership transition. This week's trading may also be impacted by some key U.S. economic data, including reports on retail sales, industrial production, import and export prices, consumer sentiment and regional manufacturing activity. Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester said that she would still like the central bank to begin tapering asset purchases this year, joining the chorus of policymakers making it clear that their plans to begin scaling back support were not derailed by weaker jobs growth in August. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 4.16% to settled at 11210 while prices down -293 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 62674 and below same could see a test of 62050 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 63751, a move above could see prices testing 64204.
Trading Ideas:
Silver trading range for the day is 62050-64204.
Silver dropped as dollar seen supported after comments from several Fed officials supported a reduction in stimulus measures this year.
Fed’s Patrick Harker said that he supports moving toward a tapering process sooner rather than later.
Investors now await U.S. consumer inflation figures for August this week

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 1.05% at 5181 as concerns over U.S. output following damage from Hurricane Ida supported the market, along with expectations for higher demand. About three-quarters of the offshore oil production in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, or about 1.4 million barrels per day, has remained halted since late August, roughly equal to what OPEC member Nigeria produces. U.S. refiners are coming back faster than oil production from the impact of Hurricane Ida, a reverse of past storm recoveries. However, the number of rigs in operation in the United States grew in the latest week, energy service provider Baker Hughes said, indicating production may rise in coming weeks. Beyond the impact of Ida, market attention will focus this week on potential revisions to the oil demand outlook from the Organization of the Petroleum Operating Countries (OPEC) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) as coronavirus cases continued to rise. Money managers raised their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions in the week to Sept. 7, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said. China said it will announce details of planned crude oil sales from strategic reserves in due course. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -13.19% to settled at 4684 while prices up 54 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 5140 and below same could see a test of 5098 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5224, a move above could see prices testing 5266.
Trading Ideas:
Crude oil trading range for the day is 5098-5266.
Crude oil rose as concerns over U.S. output following damage from Hurricane Ida supported the market, along with expectations for higher demand.
U.S. refiners are coming back faster than oil production from the impact of Hurricane Ida, a reverse of past storm recoveries.
Money managers raised their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions in the week to Sept. 7, the CFTC said
 

Natural gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 5.53% at 385.3 on forecasts for higher demand next week than previously expected, as air conditioning use remains strong in many parts of the country and heating demand starts to pick up in other areas. Prices were climbing as record global gas prices keep demand for U.S. exports high at the same time that more than half of U.S. production in the Gulf of Mexico remains shut-in two weeks after Hurricane Ida hit the Gulf Coast, and U.S. gas inventories, like those in Europe, remain lower than normal heading into the winter heating season when demand for the fuel peaks. With the front-month up about 28% since late August when Ida entered the Gulf of Mexico, gas speculators boosted their net long positions on the NYMEX and Intercontinental Exchange last week for a second week in a row for the first time since early June, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Data provider Refinitiv said gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states has fallen to an average of 90.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in September, from 92.0 bcfd in August, due mostly to Ida-related losses along the Gulf Coast. Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 87.2 bcfd this week to 87.5 bcfd next week. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.52% to settled at 11713 while prices up 20.2 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 368.6 and below same could see a test of 352 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 394.4, a move above could see prices testing 403.6.
Trading Ideas:
Natural gas trading range for the day is 352-403.6.
Natural gas rose on forecasts for higher demand next week than previously expected
Prices were climbing as record global gas prices keep demand for U.S. exports high
Further more than half of U.S. production in the Gulf of Mexico remains shut-in two weeks after Hurricane Ida hit the Gulf Coast

Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -1.64% at 729 as the dollar climbed as investors continued to price in expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve could reduce its asset purchases sooner rather than later despite a surge in COVID-19 cases. On the macro front, US headline PPI in August rose 0.7% on the month and surged 8.3% on the year, the greatest YoY growth since its latest correction in November, 2010. The reading showed that the spreading COVID-19 pandemic kept bringing pressure to the supply chain, thus the high inflation rate may stay for a while. In China, the social financing reading in August picked up slightly and was above market estimate, cheering up the overall market. The market differed on the timeline of tapering QE, resulting in uncertainties on the macro front. On the fundamentals, copper inventories continued to fall in China and foreign markets, and copper scrap supply remained tight. China's major copper smelters lifted August refined cathode output by 2.7% from the prior month, encouraged by higher treatment charges and rising prices for byproduct sulphuric acid. Trade data showed imports of unwrought copper and products into China, the world's top copper consumer, were 394,017 tonnes in August, down 7% from July and down 41% year-on-year. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.86% to settled at 3631 while prices down -12.15 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 720 and below same could see a test of 711 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 742.1, a move above could see prices testing 755.2.
Trading Ideas:
Copper trading range for the day is 711-755.2.
Copper prices dropped as investors continued to price in expectations that the Fed could reduce its asset purchases sooner rather than later
US headline PPI in August rose 0.7% on the month and surged 8.3% on the year, the greatest YoY growth since its latest correction in November, 2010.
Copper inventories in ShFE warehouses fell to their lowest since December 2011 to 61,838 tonnes.

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -0.8% at 253.05 as the downstream purchase is likely to be muted as the 50,000 mt of released government reserves will arrive at the market this week. On the fundamentals, inventories in Shanghai, Guangdong and Tianjin fell 3,100 from Friday September, 10, and the inventory in seven major markets declined 4,000 mt. Zinc stocks across LME-listed warehouses declined 9,325 mt to 226,900 mt last week. The contango of LME cash to 3-month contract rose to $14.5/mt. The market expects that the FOMC will not propose a gradual reduction in debt purchases in September due to sluggish US data and the spread of Delta virus. At the same time, the European Central Bank's speech is relatively optimistic Zinc ingots output fell 6,300 mt on the month to 508,900 mt in August, far less than the market estimate. Power curtailment in Guangxi was relieved earlier than expected. Operating rates at local smelters reached 80%-90% in September. Zinc ingots output is expected to stand at 520,700 mt in September amid the resumption of production. Export orders of die-casting zinc weakened amid shipping schedule issues and the shortage of containers. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.48% to settled at 1335 while prices down -2.05 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 251.2 and below same could see a test of 249.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 255.3, a move above could see prices testing 257.4.
Trading Ideas:
Zinc trading range for the day is 249.2-257.4.
Zinc prices dropped as the downstream purchase is likely to be muted as the 50,000 mt of released government reserves will arrive at the market
The market expects that the FOMC will not propose a gradual reduction in debt purchases in September due to sluggish US data
Zinc stocks across LME-listed warehouses declined 9,325 mt to 226,900 mt last week.

Nickel

Nickel yesterday settled down by -3.14% at 1492.1 as nickel stocks in Shanghai rose for the second straight week to 8,608 tonnes, but still hovered near a record low of 4,455 tonnes. The inventory of SHFE nickel warrants rallied, easing market concerns over nickel supply. On the fundamentals, the sales condition in the new energy sector was positive, bringing demand for nickel. The declining inventory of LME nickel warrants will also support nickel prices. However, bearish factors also existed including news of output cut among stainless steel mills, and the less-than-expected production of ferronickel and nickel matte in Indonesia. China’s sales of new energy vehicles more than doubled in July, including battery-powered electric vehicles, plug-in petrol-electric hybrids and hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles. Shfe nickel inventories jumped by almost half to their highest since April 16 this year, although they remain at just 8,608 tonnes. China's refined nickel output in August rose 7.6% from the previous month as top producer Jinchuan Group ramped up supply after maintenance. Refined nickel output was 13,317 tonnes last month, which was nonetheless down 7.1% year-on-year as Jilin Jien Nickel became the latest smelter to stop making nickel cathodes and focus on battery material nickel sulphate. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -35.54% to settled at 1545 while prices down -48.4 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1471 and below same could see a test of 1450 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1523.4, a move above could see prices testing 1554.8.
Trading Ideas:
Nickel trading range for the day is 1450-1554.8.
Nickel prices dropped as nickel stocks in Shanghai rose for the second straight week to 8,608 tonnes
The inventory of SHFE nickel warrants rallied, easing market concerns over nickel supply.
On the fundamentals, the sales condition in the new energy sector was positive, bringing demand for nickel.
 

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.8% at 229.1 on profit booking as the social aluminium inventories in China rose 20,000 mt from last Thursday to 771,000 mt, which indicated that demand has been suppressed by soring aluminium prices. Output curbs in China, the world's biggest aluminium producer, and political turmoil in Guinea, have boosted aluminium prices by around 50% so far this year. ShFE aluminium inventories fell to 228,529 tonnes, their lowest since December 2020, while stocks of the metal in the LME warehouses have dropped 33% since March to 1.32 million tonnes. Southwest China's Yunnan has told "green" aluminium smelters – those using the province's hydropower as their electricity source – to keep average monthly output for September-December at August volumes or lower, a government document shows. As of August, Yunnan aluminium smelters had already shut down nearly 1 million tonnes of annual capacity due to power curbs, state-backed research house Antaike said earlier this month. The restrictions began in May as the province was hit by a drought that cut its hydropower output. The disruptions to the supply side remained. For example, output in Guangxi and Guizhou fell due to energy consumption control. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -18.53% to settled at 2111 while prices down -1.85 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 224.5 and below same could see a test of 219.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 234.5, a move above could see prices testing 239.9.
Trading Ideas:
Aluminium trading range for the day is 219.9-239.9.
Aluminium prices dropped on profit booking as the social aluminium inventories in China rose 20,000 mt
Output curbs in China, and political turmoil in Guinea, have boosted aluminium prices by around 50% so far this year.
China's Yunnan imposes output curbs on aluminium

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.18% at 971.9 as support seen after India saw a slight decline in fresh Covid cases, with unlockdown ahead of festival season helped mentha prices to hold support as mentha is used in medicine, beauty products, toothpaste as well as confectionery products. Prices got support in last few weeks as due to crop failure and low recovery of oil, availability of Mentha oil will be low and demand from industries are expected to improve ahead of winter season. Speculation are also high that production this year will be lower as compare with last year because of two important factors. Firstly damages due to rain in key area and secondly farmers for the last 2 years where sowing mentha but due to not getting much profit at intervals there had been shift to other crops also. There is a possibility of an average reduction of 24-25 percent in the production of the total summer crop, the farmers said that the mentha crop which used to have a recovery of 8 to 10 kg oil per hectare, is now coming out only 6 kg. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -20.6 Rupees to end at 1096.7 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.62% to settled at 1214 while prices up 1.7 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 967.1 and below same could see a test of 962.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 980.5, a move above could see prices testing 989.2.
Trading Ideas:
Mentha oil trading range for the day is 962.4-989.2.
In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -20.6 Rupees to end at 1096.7 Rupees per 360 kgs.
Mentha oil prices gained as support seen after India saw a slight decline in fresh Covid cases, with unlockdown ahead of festival season.
Prices got support in last few weeks due to crop failure and low recovery of oil
Availability of Mentha oil will be low and demand from industries are expected to improve.

Soyabean

Soyabean yesterday settled up by 1.34% at 6432 as strong Chinese demand and concerns over U.S. supplies underpinned the market. Soybeans are being buoyed by sales notice of 132,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to China for 2021/22 delivery. The U.S. Department of Agriculture's monthly supply and demand report increased U.S. soybean production, though much of the agency's findings were already accounted for by recent sell-offs. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission's weekly commitments of traders report also showed that noncommercial traders, a category that includes hedge funds, cut their net long position in soybeans. China’s Soybean imports are forecast at 101 million metric tons (MMT) in marketing year (MY) 21/22, up 3 MMT from the previous year. The increase is based on growing soybean meal feed use, lower soybean production, and limited imports of rapeseed. Soybean imports for MY20/21 are estimated at 98 MMT, a slight fall from the previous year that is mainly due to decreased pork and poultry profitability. Soybean production for MY21/22 is forecast 0.6 MMT lower than MY 20/21 as farmers switched soybean acreage to corn in response to high corn prices in MY20/21. In Marathwada, there were concerns about mosaic virus, as well as infestation of pink and American bollworm. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 103 Rupees to 8978 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 10.52% to settled at 26945 while prices up 85 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 6312 and below same could see a test of 6192 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6511, a move above could see prices testing 6590.
Trading Ideas:
Soyabean trading range for the day is 6192-6590.
Soyabean gained as strong Chinese demand and concerns over U.S. supplies underpinned the market.
Soybeans are being buoyed by sales notice of 132,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to China for 2021/22 delivery.
In Marathwada, there were concerns about mosaic virus, as well as infestation of pink and American bollworm.
At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained  103 Rupees to 8978 Rupees per 100 kgs.
 

Ref.Soyaoil

Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled down by -0.57% at 1320.4 as India has cut base import taxes on palm oil, soyoil and sunflower oil, a government order showed, as the world's biggest vegetable oil buyer tries to cool near-record price rises. The reduction in taxes could bring down prices of the edible oils in India and boost consumption, effectively increasing overseas buying by the south Asian country. The base import tax on crude palm oil has been slashed to 2.5% from 10%, while the tax on crude soyoil and crude sunflower oil has been reduced to 2.5% from 7.5%, the government said in a notification. India's vegetable oil imports are likely to contract for the second straight year, the Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA) said. However downside seen limited prices seen supported amid lingering concerns over tight supply. Support seen on the back of tightening inventory levels of major vegetable oils and possibility of a lower planting area in oilseeds. The latest USDA release is slightly bearish, and as per the report the 2021/22 global oilseed supply and demand forecasts include lower production, crush, exports, and slightly higher ending stocks compared to last month. Foreign oilseed production is reduced 3.6 million tons to 501.4 million, reflecting lower canola production for Canada and sunflower seed for Russia. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1367.3 Rupees per 10 kgs.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.08% to settled at 21940 while prices down -7.6 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1305 and below same could see a test of 1291 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1333, a move above could see prices testing 1347.
Trading Ideas:
Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1291-1347.
Ref soyoil dropped as India cuts import taxes on vegetable oils to calm prices
The reduction in taxes could bring down prices of the edible oils in India and boost consumption, effectively increasing overseas buying by the south Asian country.
India's vegetable oil imports are likely to contract for the second straight year, the Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA) said.
At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1367.3 Rupees per 10 kgs.

Crude palm Oil

Crude palm Oil yesterday settled down by -1.05% at 1111.4 dragged down by prospects of growing supply from the two world’s largest producers Indonesia and Malaysia. Malaysia's end-August palm oil stocks surged 25% mom to 1.87 million tonnes, its highest in 14 months, according to Malaysian Palm Oil Board data. Production rose 11.8%, while exports plunged 17%, the MPOB said. Top producer Indonesia's crude palm oil output in July stood at 4.1 million tonnes, up 5.4% from a year ago but down 9.5% from June, GAPKI data showed. Cargo surveyors reported that Malaysia's exports during the first 10 days of September rose between 50% and 57% from the same period in August due to larger shipments to India and China. India has cut base import taxes on palm oil, soyoil and sunflower oil, a government order showed, as the world's biggest vegetable oil buyer tries to cool near-record price rises. The reduction in taxes could bring down prices of the edible oils in India and boost consumption, effectively increasing overseas buying by the south Asian country. The base import tax on crude palm oil has been slashed to 2.5% from 10%, while the tax on crude soyoil and crude sunflower oil has been reduced to 2.5% from 7.5%, the government said. In spot market, Crude palm oil dropped by -33.5 Rupees to end at 1146.5 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.46% to settled at 4773 while prices down -11.8 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 1104 and below same could see a test of 1096.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1122, a move above could see prices testing 1132.5.
Trading Ideas:
CPO trading range for the day is 1096.5-1132.5.
Crude palm oil prices dropped dragged down by prospects of growing supply from the two world’s largest producers Indonesia and Malaysia.
India cuts import taxes on vegetable oils to calm prices
Malaysia's end-August palm oil stocks surged 25% mom to 1.87 million tonnes, its highest in 14 months
In spot market, Crude palm oil dropped  by -33.5 Rupees to end at 1146.5 Rupees.

Mustard Seed

Mustard Seed yesterday settled down by -0.2% at 8779 on profit booking after prices seen supported as Government has increased the Mustard seed MSP from 4650.00 to 5050 i.e Rs.400 per quintal for RMS 2022-23. Support also seen amid regular demand from the stockists and lowering all India arrivals. In their August report, the IGC lowered their forecast for the world rapeseed production to 70.9 million tons (-2.2 compared to July and 72.1 compared to 2020/21). The rapeseed production in Canada will be 16 million tons (-2.8 and 18.7), 4.5 million tons in Australia (4.2 and 4.1), 2.8 million tons in Ukraine (2.7 and 2.7). USDA estimates Canada rapeseed production for marketing year 2021/22 at 16.0 million metric tons (mmt), down 4.2 mmt (21 percent) from last month, 3.0 mmt (16 percent) from last year, and 20 percent below the 5-year average. Harvested area is estimated at 8.7 million hectares, down 3 percent from last month, but 4 percent above last year, and roughly equivalent to the 5-year average. The month-to-month decrease in area is due to the expectation of weather-related abandonment with prospects for hay being the best use. Yield is estimated at 1.84 metric tons per hectare, down 18 percent from last month and 20 percent below the 5-year average. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices dropped -93.75 Rupees to end at 8715.5 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.05% to settled at 48340 while prices down -18 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 8666 and below same could see a test of 8553 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8843, a move above could see prices testing 8907.
Trading Ideas:
Rmseed trading range for the day is 8553-8907.
Mustard seed dropped on profit booking after prices seen supported as Government has increased the MSP by 400 per quintal for RMS 2022-23.
Support also seen amid regular demand from the stockists and lowering all India arrivals.
The IGC lowered their forecast for the world rapeseed production to 70.9 million tons (-2.2 compared to July and 72.1 compared to 2020/21).
In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices dropped -93.75 Rupees to end at 8715.5 Rupees per 100 kg.

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -2.18% at 7912 as the areas where turmeric has been sown have received adequate rainfall and are expected to produce well in the next season. However downside seen limited following export demand from Europe, Gulf countries and Bangladesh. Turmeric crops were severely damaged in Parbhani and Hingole due to heavy rains. India is on course to having a normal monsoon, which will recharge the country’s main water reservoirs just enough, and ensure that the most important crops for the kharif season have normal sowing. This is good news for agricultural production and food prices. Pressure also seen as the lockdown restrictions were eased the key Turmeric growing states, including Maharashtra and Telangana reported noticeable increase in mandi arrivals, which augmented physical market supplies and pressurized prices. According to the statistics of the Department of Commerce, Government of India, the highest number of 1.84 lakh tonnes of turmeric was exported during the last financial year 2020-21. In the first 6 months of 2021, turmeric exports declined by 3% to 77,300 tonnes compared to the same period last year, but could be higher in the coming months. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7383.35 Rupees dropped -90.45 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 3.18% to settled at 12485 while prices down -176 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7854 and below same could see a test of 7794 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8008, a move above could see prices testing 8102.
Trading Ideas:
Turmeric trading range for the day is 7794-8102.
Turmeric dropped as the areas where turmeric has been sown have received adequate rainfall and are expected to produce well in the next season.
However downside seen limited following export demand from Europe, Gulf countries and Bangladesh.
In the first 6 months of 2021, turmeric exports declined by 3% to 77,300 tonnes compared to the same period last year
In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7383.35 Rupees dropped -90.45 Rupees.

Jeera

"Jeera yesterday settled down by -1.6% at 14755 as adequate stock with traders and farmers may keep prices under pressure at higher levels. With the forecast of normal rains in the western region during September to November, the sowing of cumin seeds in Gujarat and Rajasthan may increase. In 2021 (January-June), the country has exported more than 1.50 lakh tonnes of cumin as compared to 1.3 lakh tonnes in the same period last year. However prices rallied in recent sessions as the export of cumin is increasing continuously and in the coming days there are signs of increasing the export of cumin in a big way. Purchase of cumin seeds from African and Middle East countries will be diverted from other countries to India this year. With Gujarat and Rajasthan being the only producers of cumin in the country, the most impact of Skymet's forecast is visible on the cumin market. The export of cumin is increasing continuously and in the coming days there are signs of increasing the export of cumin in a big way. However, the freight of container-vessels has increased and the shortage of containers is increasing continuously.

In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -198.4 Rupees to end at 14588.25 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.75% to settled at 5529 while prices down -240 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 14660 and below same could see a test of 14570 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 14905, a move above could see prices testing 15060."
Trading Ideas:
Jeera trading range for the day is 14570-15060.
Jeera dropped on profit booking as adequate stock with traders and farmers may keep prices under pressure at higher levels.
India's cumin exports will increase due to less supply from Afghanistan-Syrian
Export of cumin is expected to reach a record level of 2.50 to 2.75 lakh tonnes in the current year
In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -198.4 Rupees to end at 14588.25 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled down by -0.47% at 25620 as Cotton production in Gujarat is likely to grown by 10-12% in the new cotton season beginning October. Despite lower acreage, the output is expected to increase in 2021-22 due to the improved yield following recent spell of rain and favourable climatic condition. The 2021/22 marketing year for cotton began on August 1 and the yield increase reflected in the September WASDE indicates significant weather improvements. On the supply side, USDA revised cotton area planted down from 11.72 million acres in August to 11.19 million acres, which is down almost 7.5% compared to the 12.09 million acres planted in 2020. On the demand side for cotton, domestic use remained unchanged from August at 2.5 million 480-pound bales, an increase of 6% compared to 2020. However, estimates for cotton exports increased 500,000 480-pound bales from August to September, now registering 15.5 million 480-pound bales, which is still pacing about 5% behind exports in 2020 when 16.37 million 480-pound bales were exported. The Southern India Mills’ Association (Sima) and Confederation of Indian Textile Industry (Citi) have thanked chief minister M K Stalin for removing the 1% cess on cotton and cotton waste. In spot market, Cotton dropped by -40 Rupees to end at 26560 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.29% to settled at 1732 while prices down -120 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 25510 and below same could see a test of 25390 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 25700, a move above could see prices testing 25770.
Trading Ideas:
Cotton trading range for the day is 25390-25770.
Cotton prices dropped as cotton production likely to rise by 12% in new season in Gujarat
USDA hiked its estimate for U.S. production and ending stocks for the 2021/22 marketing year
Industry bodies hail removal of 1% cess on cotton, cotton waste
In spot market, Cotton dropped  by -40 Rupees to end at 26560 Rupees.

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