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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.05% at 59790 as dollar index regained the 100 mark, as investors continued to assess the outlook for Federal Reserve monetary policy. Recent economic data re-ignited hopes that the U.S. Federal Reserve may soon hit pause on its interest rate hiking cycle. The Fed will raise its benchmark overnight interest rate by 25 basis points on July 26, with most economists expecting that will be the last increase of the current tightening cycle. Traders also digested data showing US retail sales growth for June fell short of forecasts, but consumer spending remained resilient in other areas. Still, the dollar remains near its lowest levels in over a year due to easing US inflation, which has raised hopes that the Federal Reserve may be reaching the end of its current monetary tightening cycle. The central bank is widely expected to raise interest rates by 25 bps this month, possibly indicating the conclusion of their tightening measures. The euro moved away from a 17-month low against the USD to $1.122 after dovish comments from some ECB officials. The yen weakened toward $140 as BoJ Ueda reiterated his commitment to maintaining an ultra-loose monetary policy. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -7.69% to settle at 8016 while prices are up 27 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 59626 and below same could see a test of 59461 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 59917, a move above could see prices testing 60043.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 59461-60043.
* Gold steadied as dollar index regained the 100 mark
* Investors continued to assess the outlook for Federal Reserve monetary policy.
* U.S. retail sales rose less than expected in June.

Silver
Silver yesterday settled up by 0.4% at 76409 amid concerns of low supply, and stronger industrial demand. Indications of persisting consumer resilience revealed in the latest Retail Sales data from the U.S. lifted the dollar higher. The Dollar strengthened in the backdrop of the U.S. Retail Sales reading for May being revised higher. The revision triggered speculation over whether the euphoria over a Fed pause or pivot was actually warranted. Monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England are due in the coming weeks, which added to the bearish sentiment for the metal. The CME FedWatch tool currently shows a 99.8 percent probability for a rate hike of 25 basis points in the review due on July 26. A 14 percent probability is however seen for another rate hike in September. Solar panel companies are expected to make up 14% of global silver consumption, compared to 5% in 2014, and driving an expected 4% increase in consumption this year. The figure compares to a slower 2% rise in output, flagging fresh deficit concerns and driving silver to outperform gold since the start of the month. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 4.15% to settle at 20417 while prices are up 306 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 76007 and below same could see a test of 75606 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 76717, a move above could see prices testing 77026.
Trading Ideas:
*Silver trading range for the day is 75606-77026.
* Silver gains amid concerns of low supply, and stronger industrial demand.
* Indications of persisting consumer resilience revealed in latest Retail Sales data from U.S.
* The CME FedWatch tool currently shows a 99.8 percent probability for a rate hike of 25 basis points in the review due on July 26.
 

Crude oil 

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -0.29% at 6206 buoyed by tighter U.S. crude supplies, China's pledge to reinvigorate its economic growth and expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will stop raising interest rates soon. U.S. crude inventories fell last week, supported by a jump in crude exports as well as higher refinery utilization, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said. Sales of crude oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) ended in the last week of June, tightening the market for crude oil globally. Crude inventories fell by 708,000 barrels in the last week to 457.4 million barrels, compared with expectations in a poll for a drop of 2.4 million barrels, the EIA data showed. U.S. crude oil stockpiles in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) rose by about a thousand barrels last week, the first increase since January 2021, according to data from the Energy Information Administration. The U.S. Department of Energy has begun buying oil to refill the SPR, after inventories fell to their lowest level since 1983 in recent months due to congressional mandates to release oil from the reserve to tame high commodity prices. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 8.44% to settle at 6916 while prices are down -18 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6156 and below same could see a test of 6106 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6285, a move above could see prices testing 6364.
Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 6106-6364.
* Crude oil prices gained buoyed by tighter U.S. crude supplies
* US crude stocks fall in latest week on exports, refinery runs – EIA
* Crude inventories fell by 708,000 barrels in the last week to 457.4 million barrels
 

Natural Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -0.69% at 215.3 on a drop in daily output and forecasts for the weather to remain hotter-than-normal through early August, especially in Texas. That price increase came despite forecasts for less demand this week than previously expected and slow growth in the amount of gas flowing to U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants due to ongoing maintenance outages at several facilities. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 101.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in July, up from 101.0 bcfd in June. That compares with a monthly record of 101.8 bcfd in May. On a daily basis, however, output was on track to drop by 1.8 bcfd to a preliminary one-week low of 99.9 bcfd on Wednesday due mostly to declines in North Dakota and Pennsylvania. Meteorologists forecast the weather in the Lower 48 states would remain hotter-than-normal through at least Aug. 3. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Monday said that U.S. natural gas storage injections have exceeded the five-year average so far this summer as production in the Lower 48 states has outpaced demand. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 7.7% to settle at 17260 while prices are down -1.5 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 212.5 and below same could see a test of 209.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 218.2, a move above could see prices testing 221.1.
Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 209.7-221.1.
* Nat. gas fell due to reduced demand & slow growth in gas flowing to LNG plants.
* That price decline came even though daily output dropped
* Meteorologists forecast the weather in the Lower 48 states would remain hotter-than-normal through at least Aug. 3.

Copper
Copper yesterday settled down by -0.34% at 722.25 as China's refined copper production in June jumped 13.6% year on year to 1.1 million metric tons, unchanged from last month at a record monthly high. China will increase policy support for the private economy, according to joint guidelines from the Communist Party and the state council quoted by state media. The country will encourage qualified private firms to issue technology innovation bonds, and support eligible firms to list and refinance, state news agency Xinhua reported. Chilean miner Antofagasta lowered its full-year copper output forecast to 640,000-670,000 metric tons from 670,000-710,000 metric tons, on persistent water shortages in drought-hit Chile. The London-listed company said it produced 295,500 metric tons of copper in the first half, up 10% from the same 2022 period on higher output at its flagship Los Pelambres mine, where a desalination plant, which had been previously delayed, should be completed in the second half. Antofagasta operates four mines in Chile, the usage of which is expected to increase as the world moves toward green energy and electrification in applications from solar panels to electric cars. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -11.78% to settle at 3346 while prices are down -2.5 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 718.9 and below same could see a test of 715.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 725.2, a move above could see prices testing 728.2.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 715.6-728.2.
* Copper dropped as China June refined copper output at record high
* Citi sees copper softness setting up a strong medium-term buying opportunity, with $12,000/t their new 2025 base case forecast
* Kazakhstan's refined copper output for January-June dropped 19.4% year-on-year
 

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -0.89% at 212.2 weighed by demand concerns in China where supply is expected to rise, although losses were capped by a weak dollar. Weak consumption in China has been reflected in a widening spot discount in the market and increase in inventories. China will increase policy support for the private economy, according to joint guidelines from the Communist Party and the state council quoted by state media. The country will encourage qualified private firms to issue technology innovation bonds, and support eligible firms to list and refinance. Daily LME data showed that inventories in the exchange-registered warehouses rose by 15% to 80,375 tonnes, the highest in nearly three weeks. Second-quarter data showed China's economy grew only 0.8% from the previous quarter as demand weakened at home and abroad, with post-COVID momentum faltering rapidly and raising pressure on policymakers to deliver more stimulus. China’s output reached 3.23 million mt in H1, a year-on-year increase of 8.59%. Data showed that the domestic refined zinc output stood at 552,500 mt in June, down 2.13% MoM and 13.1% YoY. In June, the reduction of domestic smelters was mainly concentrated in Guangxi, Henan, Shaanxi, Hunan and other places, and the overall impact was less than expected. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 4.82% to settle at 2696 while prices are down -1.9 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 211.3 and below same could see a test of 210.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 213.6, a move above could see prices testing 214.9.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 210.3-214.9.
* Zinc dropped weighed by demand concerns in China
* Citi sees further 10-15% downside in zinc prices into year-end, as surplus markets & cost deflation weigh
* Kazakhstan's production of refined zinc fell 4.9% for January-June
 

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.53% at 196.25 as smelters started to resume production in the southwestern Yunnan province after curbs on local power usage were eased. China's aluminium imports in the first half of 2023 rose 10.7% from a year earlier, customs data showed, with domestic supplies constrained by power woes and demand expectations. The world's biggest aluminium producer and consumer imported 1.2 million metric tons of unwrought aluminium and products -including primary metal and unwrought, alloyed aluminium – from January to June, according to data from the General Administration of Customs. June imports totalled 211,235 metric tons, 12.8% higher than the 187,362 metric tons imported in the same month of 2022, also up from the 191,701 tonnes in May. Domestic production growth was limited this year, largely due to the hydro-power shortage in the southwestern Yunnan province. China's aluminium production rose 2.9% to 3.46 million metric tons in June versus a year earlier, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics. For the first half this year, China produced 20.16 million metric tons, up 3.4% from the same period last year, the data showed. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -3.76% to settle at 2691 while prices are down -1.05 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 195.7 and below same could see a test of 194.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 197.3, a move above could see prices testing 198.1.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 194.9-198.1.
* Aluminium dropped as smelters started to resume production in Yunnan
* China's aluminium imports rise 10.7% y/y in H1
* China June aluminium output 3.46 mln metric tons
 

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.08% at 889.6 due to reports of improved crop progress. Yield is likely to increase due to favorable weather condition in major producing states. Moreover, reports of slack export of menthol will put pressure on prices. Rising menthol imports, as well as China's limited purchasing, will put pressure on pricing. Mentha exports during Apr-May 2023, dropped by 51.60 percent to 183.98 tonnes as compared to 380.12 tonnes exported during Apr-May 2022. In May 2023 around 86.13 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 97.85 tonnes in April 2023 showing a drop of 13.60%. In May 2023 around 86.13 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 209.90 tonnes in May 2022 showing a drop of 58.96%. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -1.9 Rupees to end at 1028 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -9.05% to settle at 633 while prices are down -0.7 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 885.2 and below same could see a test of 880.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 896, a move above could see prices testing 902.3.
Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 869.3-895.3.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -1.9 Rupees to end at 1028 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Menthaoil dropped due to reports of improved crop progress.
* Yield is likely to increase due to favorable weather condition in major producing states.
* Moreover, reports of slack export of menthol will put pressure on prices.

Turmeric 
Turmeric yesterday settled down by -0.48% at 12150 driven by consistent demand from the domestic market and export. Moreover, farmers and stockists are holding onto their stocks in anticipation of price increases due to lower sowing acreage and also lower ending stocks, resulting in a supply shortage in the cash markets. The kharif sowing acreage is expected to decrease during the current season. In Maharashtra, the sowing area is projected to decline by 10%-20%. Similarly, in Tamil Nadu, the acreage is expected to decrease by 10%-15%. In Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, there is an anticipated decline of 18%-22% in the acreage compared to the previous season. Support also seen as the untimely rains that occurred in various places in the Andhra Pradesh damaged turmeric crops causing huge loss to the farmers. Turmeric exports during Apr-May 2023, rose by 27.55 percent at 39,418.73 tonnes as compared to 30,903.38 tonnes exported during Apr-May 2022. In May 2023 around 19,827.86 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 19,590.87 tonnes in April 2023 showing a rise of 1.21%. In May 2023 around 19,827.86 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 17,138.35 tonnes in May 2022 showing a rise of 15.69%. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 11086.35 Rupees gained 586.9 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 1.01% to settle at while prices are down -58 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 11788 and below same could see a test of 11426 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 12446, a move above could see prices testing 12742.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 11766-13398.
* Turmeric rose as supply concerns drove prices up
* Farmers and stockists are holding onto their stocks in anticipation of price increases due to lower sowing acreage
* In May 2023 around 19,827.86 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 19,590.87 tonnes in April 2023 showing a rise of 1.21%.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 11474.35 Rupees gained 388 Rupees.
 

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled down by -0.42% at 60255 on profit booking after prices rose due to good export demand and expectations of lower stocks end of the current marketing year. Prices rose on crop worries grow due to unseasonal rains and hailstorms in Rajasthan, the major producing state. The market is expecting a lower yield and quality of jeera this season, which has boosted the demand from domestic and export buyers. Cumin imports in May 2023 reached 210 metric tons, showing a substantial increase of 227.73% compared to the previous month's import volume of 64 metric tons. India's imports are likely to rise in the upcoming months due to the expectation of continued high prices in the Indian market this season. According to FISS forecasts, cumin demand is predicted to exceed 85 lakh bags this year, with a likely supply of 65 lakh bags. Jeera exports during Apr-May 2023, rose by 67.90 percent at 42,988.50 tonnes as compared to 25,603.35 tonnes exported during Apr-May 2022. In May 2023 around 25,903.63 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 17,084.87 tonnes in April 2023 showing a rise of 51.52%. In May 2023 around 25,903.63 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 14,894.62 tonnes in May 2022 showing a rise of 73.91%. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 907.35 Rupees to end at 60839.85 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -1.67% to settle at while prices are down -255 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 59310 and below same could see a test of 58370 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 61595, a move above could see prices testing 62940.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 58370-60840.
* Jeera dropped on profit booking after prices rose amid less stock and good demand.
* Traders are avoiding bulk buying in anticipation of rise in seasonal supply of jeera in Gujarat and Rajasthan.
* The market is expecting a lower yield and quality of jeera this season
# In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -749.8 Rupees to end at 60090.05 Rupees per 100 kg.

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