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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.49% at 60927 amid a general greenback weakness, while investors continued to assess the economic and monetary policy outlook. Last week, the prices rallied to all time high as the US Federal Reserve delivered a widely expected 25 basis point rate hike but hinted at a possible end to its aggressive tightening cycle. However, gold prices tumbled nearly 2% on Friday as data showed that the US economy unexpectedly added 253K jobs in April, exceeding forecasts of 180K and tempering fears of a looming recession in the country. Investors now look ahead to US consumer inflation data on Wednesday for more clues on the likely direction of US monetary policy. Indian gold demand in the March quarter fell 17% to the lowest level in 10 quarters and is likely to remain subdued even during June and September quarters on record-high prices, the World Gold Council (WGC) said. Demand during the March quarter fell to 112.5 tonnes as both jewellery and investment demand dropped due to a rally in local prices. Global gold demand fell in the first three months of 2023 as large purchases by central banks and Chinese consumers were offset by reduced investor buying, the World Gold Council (WGC) said. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -0.33% to settle at 14352 while prices are up 299 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 60768 and below same could see a test of 60610 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 61087, a move above could see prices testing 61248.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 60610-61248.
* Gold rose amid a general greenback weakness
* Investors continued to assess the economic and monetary policy outlook
* Data showed that the US economy unexpectedly added 253K jobs in April, exceeding forecasts of 180K



Silver

Silver yesterday settled up by 0.04% at 77079 as dollar remained weak as the Fed's hints of a pause and jobs data that implied a resilient U.S. labor market triggered uncertainty over the future course of monetary policy in the U.S. The solid jobs data had renewed fears of the Fed raising rates further. The renewed focus on jobs data came amidst the Fed's stance that it would monitor the implications of incoming information including readings on labor market conditions. Investors fled out of regional banking shares after a group of lenders sought outside investment and raised fears of a second round of banking collapses, triggering a fresh flight to safe assets. Besides concerns of financial instability, recent signs of a slowing job market prompted investors to bet on multiple rate cuts by the Fed this year, which pressure the dollar and decrease the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets. The central bank hiked its funds rate by 25bps this month and refrained from signaling further tightening. Perth Mint's gold product sales in April fell more than 6% from the previous month, while those of silver rose to their highest since October last year. Monthly Silver sales, rose 6.8% on a monthly basis to 1,947,743 ounces. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 4.17% to settle at 19399 while prices are up 32 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 76846 and below same could see a test of 76613 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 77356, a move above could see prices testing 77633.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 76613-77633.
* Silver rose as dollar remained weak as the Fed's hints of a pause
* The solid jobs data had renewed fears of the Fed raising rates further.
*Fed's stance that it would monitor the implications of incoming information including readings on labor market conditions




Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 2.88% at 6009 as U.S. recession fears eased and some traders took the view that crude's recent price slide was overdone with three straight weekly declines for the first time since November. The market sentiment was boosted by better-than-expected job growth in the US, which alleviated concerns over a potential economic downturn. U.S. crude oil stockpiles in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve last week declined by about 2 million barrels to 364.9 million barrels, their lowest since October 1983 for the third week in a row, according to the Energy Information Administration. U.S. crude oil and distillate inventories fell while gasoline stockpiles rose, the Energy Information Administration said. A round of voluntary output cuts by some members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies, together called OPEC+, begin this month and the group holds its next meeting on June 4. Before then, U.S. consumer price inflation figures for April will be in focus on Wednesday, potentially influencing the Fed's stance on future interest rate decisions. OPEC's latest monthly oil market report is due on Thursday, providing an updated reading on the demand and supply outlook. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -16.22% to settle at 14013 while prices are up 168 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 5893 and below same could see a test of 5777 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6082, a move above could see prices testing 6155.

Trading Ideas:

* Crude oil trading range for the day is 5777-6155.
* Crude oil rose as U.S. recession fears eased
* The market sentiment was boosted by better-than-expected job growth in the US
* Goldman Sachs says demand fears 'overblown'



Natural gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 3.8% at 183 amid forecasts for more gas demand in the week than previously expected. However, upside seen limited as the amount of gas flowing to U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants declined due to spring maintenance. Average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 101.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in May, up from a record 101.4 bcfd in April. Meteorologists projected the weather would remain mostly warmer than normal from May 5-16, with cooling degree days (CDD) exceeding heating degree days (HDD) over the next two weeks for the first time this year. With the weather turning warmer, Refinitiv forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, would slide from 96.3 bcfd this week to 92.1 bcfd next week and 91.7 bcfd in two weeks. The forecasts for this week and next were higher than Refinitiv's outlook on Thursday. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities added 54 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended April 28. That was close to the 52-bcf build compared with an increase of 72 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2018-2022) average increase of 78 bcf. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -8.68% to settle at 40291 while prices are up 6.7 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 178.8 and below same could see a test of 174.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 186.1, a move above could see prices testing 189.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Natural gas trading range for the day is 174.5-189.1.
* Natural gas gains amid forecasts for more gas demand in the week than previously expected.
* EIA said utilities added 54 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage
* The amount of gas flowing to U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants declined due to spring maintenance.




Copper

Copper yesterday settled up by 1.22% at 752.7 as low inventory levels provided a cushion after prices fell for three straight weeks due to weaker-than-expected demand in China. Copper inventories in SHFE warehouses fell to their lowest levels since Jan. 13 to 134,919 tonnes, equivalent to over three days of China's annual demand last year, data by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics showed. Copper prices will likely be supported by low stocks, the maintenance of smelters in May, potentially better demand post the Labour Day holiday as well as the metal becoming cheaper in the past few weeks. Meanwhile, inventories at the London Metal Exchange were at under 60 thousand tonnes, the least since 2005, and Chile's state-owned Codelco said this year's output is estimated to sink as much as 7% after the 10.6% decline in 2022. Still, evidence of low demand kept a ceiling on copper’s rebound. According to major PMI gauges, China’s manufacturing sector unexpectedly contracted in April to magnify concerns over the country's economic slowdown. The global copper market is expected to see a deficit this year, steered by improved Chinese demand, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -9.4% to settle at 4578 while prices are up 9.1 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 746.4 and below same could see a test of 740.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 757.2, a move above could see prices testing 761.7.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 740.1-761.7.
* Copper prices rose as low inventory levels provided a cushion.
* Copper inventories in SHFE warehouses fell to their lowest levels since Jan. 13 to 134,919 tonnes.
* Inventories at the London Metal Exchange were at under 60 thousand tonnes, the least since 2005


Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled up by 0.25% at 238.75 as global refined zinc market is likely be in a deficit in 2023, the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) said. Global demand for refined zinc metal will exceed supply in 2023 with the extent of the deficit currently forecast at a modest 45,000 tonnes, the ILZSG said. Data shows that social inventories of zinc ingots across seven major markets in China totalled 118,000 mt as of May 5, down 18,500 mt from last Monday April 24 and 3,100 mt higher compared with the prior week. In Shanghai, the market arrivals were low, but downstream buyers only purchased in a small amount due to unsatisfactory orders. As a result, the inventory in Shanghai climbed. In Guangdong, the downstream enterprises had been active in restocking before the Labour Day holiday when zinc prices declined. The Caixin China General Composite PMI declined to a three-month low of 53.6 in April 2023 from March’s nine-month high of 54.5. It was the fourth straight period of growth in private sector activity as services activity maintained momentum following the removal of strict pandemic measures. The Caixin China General Services PMI declined to 56.4 in April 2023 from March’s 28-month high of 57.8. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -1.31% to settle at 3326 while prices are up 0.6 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 237.9 and below same could see a test of 237.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 239.8, a move above could see prices testing 240.9.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 237.1-240.9.
* Zinc gains as global refined zinc market is likely be in a deficit in 2023
* Zinc social inventories in China totalled 118,000 mt, down 18,500 mt
* LME zinc inventories remained close to levels not seen since 1989.




Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 0.36% at 208.8 as aluminium ingot social inventories across China’s eight major markets stood at 835,000 mt as of May 4, down 18,000 mt from a week ago and 197,000 mt from the same period last year. The Caixin China General Composite PMI declined to a three-month low of 53.6 in April 2023 from March’s nine-month high of 54.5. It was the fourth straight period of growth in private sector activity as services activity maintained momentum following the removal of strict pandemic measures. The Caixin China General Services PMI declined to 56.4 in April 2023 from March’s 28-month high of 57.8, as both output and new orders growth eased slightly while the job creation moderated. On the price front, input cost inflation accelerated to a 12-month, while output charges rose only slightly as firms south to boost competitiveness and attract sales. The Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell to 49.5 in April 2022 from 50 in the previous month, missing market forecasts of 50.3. The latest result marked the first contraction in factory activity since January, amid an ongoing property downturn and global economic slowdown. New orders fell after rising in March, employment decline the most in three months, while output growth slowed for the second straight month. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 1.38% to settle at 3013 while prices are up 0.75 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 208.3 and below same could see a test of 207.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 209.3, a move above could see prices testing 209.7.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 207.7-209.7.
* Aluminum gains as inventories across China’s stood at 835,000 mt, down 18,000 mt
* China composite PMI falls to 3-month low
* China services sector growth stays robust



Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.53% at 965 as a result of better sowing conditions in UP and Bihar. The recent period of rain in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar has been beneficial to planting efforts. The forecast of above-average rainfall in May would be beneficial to Mentha seeding efforts. Rising menthol imports, as well as China's limited purchasing, will put pressure on pricing. Mentha exports during Apr-Feb 2023, dropped by 10.67 percent to 2,227.55 tonnes as compared to 2,493.53 tonnes exported during Apr-Feb 2022. In February 2023 around 210.78 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 233.21 tonnes in January 2023 showing a drop of 9.62%. In February 2023 around 210.78 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 157.90 tonnes in February 2022 showing a rise of 33.49%. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 1152.7 Rupees to end at 1144.1 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -7.87% to settle at 644 while prices are down -5.1 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 959.3 and below same could see a test of 953.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 971.7, a move above could see prices testing 978.5.

Trading Ideas:

* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 953.7-978.5.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 1152.7 Rupees to end at 1144.1 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil prices fell as a result of better sowing conditions in UP and Bihar.
* The forecast of above-average rainfall in May would be beneficial to Mentha seeding efforts.
* Rising menthol imports, as well as China's limited purchasing, will put pressure on prices.



Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 0.43% at 7462 as there were report of some fall in crop yields in the Marathwada region of Maharashtra due to rain in the last week. Support also seen as the untimely rains that occurred in various places in the Andhra Pradesh damaged turmeric crops causing huge loss to the farmers. Turmeric stocks were soaked in rain water in Guntur, Krishna and NTR Districts due to the rainfall. Arrivals of new crop has improved as about 7-8 lakh bags touched the Nizamabad market so far wherein about 7 lakh bags were reported in Sangli. Market is running with huge stocks and stockists are trying to release their stocks on every rise in prices. Turmeric exports during Apr-Feb 2023, rose by 10.42 percent at 151,298.89 tonnes as compared to 137,017.23 tonnes exported during Apr- Feb 2022. In February 2023 around 14,806.30 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 12,484.25 tonnes in January 2023 showing a rise of 18.60%. In February 2023 around 14,806.30 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 10,358.22 tonnes in February 2022 showing a rise of 42.94%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7032.85 Rupees dropped -9.05 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -17.15% to settle at 4855 while prices are up 32 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7348 and below same could see a test of 7234 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7566, a move above could see prices testing 7670.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7234-7670.
* Turmeric gains on report of some fall in crop yields in the Marathwada region
* Turmeric stocks were soaked in rain water in Guntur, Krishna and NTR Districts due to the rainfall.
* Turmeric exports during Apr-Jan 2023, rose by 7.76 percent at 1,36,492.59 tonnes
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7032.85 Rupees dropped -9.05 Rupees.



Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 2.48% at 47715 due to good export demand and expectations of lower stocks end of the current marketing year. Prices rose on crop worries grow due to unseasonal rains and hailstorms in Rajasthan, the major producing state. The market is expecting a lower yield and quality of jeera this season, which has boosted the demand from domestic and export buyers. The jeera growing regions in southern and north-western parts of Rajasthan in the districts of Alwar, Jaisalmer, Jaipur, Bikaner, Bhilwara, and Barmer have received a fresh spell of unseasonal rains in the past week, triggering concerns on the crop condition. According to FISS forecasts, cumin demand is predicted to exceed 85 lakh bags this year, with a likely supply of 65 lakh bags. One bag holds 55kg. This will result in a demand-supply imbalance. Currently, at least 70% of the crop in Rajasthan and around 30% in Gujarat have yet to be harvested. Because of the rain in both states, the total yield will be reduced. The cumin crop was destroyed by two bouts of unseasonal rainfall during the harvest season. In comparison to the planned arrival of 70 lakh bags, the stock will be reduced to 60-65 lakh bags, with a carry-forward stock of 5 lakh bags from last year. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 2715.3 Rupees to end at 48074.5 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -13.84% to settle at 3774 while prices are up 1155 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 47250 and below same could see a test of 46785 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 48300, a move above could see prices testing 48885.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 46785-48885.
* Jeera gains due to good export demand and expectations of lower stocks
* The market is expecting a lower yield and quality of jeera this season, which has boosted the demand from domestic and export buyers.
* Cumin demand is predicted to exceed 85 lakh bags this year, with a likely supply of 65 lakh bags.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 2715.3 Rupees to end at 48074.5 Rupees per 100 kg.

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