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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.74% at 60063 as the dollar gained some ground after the US non-farm payrolls report pointed to a tight labor market and supported bets for another interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve in May. Data released showed that US non-farm payrolls increased by 236,000 jobs in March, coming in close to expectations of 239,000. The unemployment rate also fell to 3.5% despite forecasts that it would hold at 3.6%. Markets are now pricing in a 66% chance that the Fed would raise rates by 25 basis points next month. Investors now look ahead to key US inflation data on Wednesday for clues on the central bank’s tightening campaign. Physical gold demand in key Asian hubs hit a pause with high domestic prices forcing dealers in some markets to lure customers with discounts. In top buyer China, the bullion changed hands at anywhere between on par with global benchmark spot prices to $12 an ounce premiums. Chinese dealers offered discounts for the first time in months last week. Hong Kong and Singapore traders sold bullion in a range of $2 an ounce discounts to $2 premiums over the global spot rates. In India, dealers offered discounts of up to $32 an ounce over official domestic prices versus last week's $26 discounts. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -2.04% to settle at 18426 while prices are down -448 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 59845 and below same could see a test of 59626 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 60350, a move above could see prices testing 60636.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 59626-60636.
* Gold slips on firmer dollar
* US non-farm payrolls report pointed to a tight labor market and supported bets for another interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve in May.
* Markets are now pricing in a 66% chance that the Fed would raise rates by 25 basis points next month.

Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -0.33% at 74323 after a batch of labor market data consolidated bets for another 25bps funds rate increase at the Fed's next meeting. The US economy added 236 thousand jobs in March, roughly in line with expectations, underscoring tightness in the US labor market despite its marked softening. Still, weakness in the dollar, turmoil in the banking sector, and low inventories worldwide held silver prices high after they surged 25% from March lows. Recent interest rate hikes highlighted banks' vulnerability and drove the Fed to back off pledges of its aggressive tightening path in March, spurring a rally for bullion assets. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note reversed early losses to trade higher above 3.41% to kick off the second week of April, as investors return from the Easter weekend and continue to assess the economic and the monetary policy outlook. Most investors now see the Fed delivering another 25bps increase in the fed funds rate in May, after the payrolls report continued to point to a tight labour market, with the economy adding 236K jobs and the unemployment rate dropping to near record lows to 3.5%. Traders now await consumer and producer inflation releases and FOMC minutes for further clues on the Fed's next move. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -7.33% to settle at 14975 while prices are down -247 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 73912 and below same could see a test of 73501 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 74879, a move above could see prices testing 75435.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 73501-75435.
* Silver dropped after labor market data consolidated bets for 25bps rate increase
* 10-Year treasury yield rises on bets for another 25bps rate hike
* The US economy added 236 thousand jobs in March, roughly in line with expectations

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -0.38% at 6568 on concerns about a weakening global economic outlook. OPEC+ unexpectedly announced that it will reduce output by 1.16 million barrels per day from May until the end of 2023. Saudi Arabia raised its May crude prices to term customers in Asia and the US following the announcement. Meanwhile, OPEC and the IEA are due to report a monthly outlook this week which will provide further details on the supply and demand prospects. State oil giant Saudi Aramco will supply full crude contract volumes loading in May to several North Asian buyers despite its pledge to cut output by 500,000 barrels per day. This comes after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies, known as OPEC+, surprised markets last week by announcing an extra output cut of 1.16 million barrels per day (bpd) from May for the rest of the year. Saudi Aramco's monthly allocation was being keenly watched by investors as an indicator of whether planned output cuts could tighten supplies in Asia, the world's biggest crude import market. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 4.2% to settle at 6346 while prices are down -25 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6525 and below same could see a test of 6483 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6629, a move above could see prices testing 6691.

Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 6483-6691.
* Crude oil dropped on concerns about a weakening global economic outlook.
* Saudi maintains crude supply to Asian refiners despite OPEC+ cuts
* Progress on resuming Iraq northern oil exports in view

Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 7.21% at 181.4 on short covering amid forecasts of slightly colder weather, especially in the northern U.S. from April 17-20. However, the weekend data pointed to an exceptionally light demand in the next seven days and in April 21-24, according to NatGasWeather. Natural gas prices hovered close to September 2020 lows amid milder temperatures and weaker heating demand. Last week, total U.S. natural gas consumption fell by 7.1% compared with the previous report week, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. Natural gas consumed in the residential and commercial sectors declined by 17.8%, in the power generation sector by 0.4%, and in the industrial sector by 2.7% (0.6 Bcf/d). Natural gas exports to Mexico increased by 0.5%, and natural gas deliveries to U.S. LNG export facilities averaged 13.9 Bcf/d or 0.9 Bcf/d higher than last week. Meanwhile, supply was little changed. U.S. energy firms last week cut the number of oil and natural gas rigs operating for a second week in a row, energy services firm Baker Hughes Co said. Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states has risen to 100 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in April, up from 98.7 bcfd in March. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -22.84% to settle at 39433 while prices are up 12.2 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 171.5 and below same could see a test of 161.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 187.3, a move above could see prices testing 193.2.

Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 161.6-193.2.
* Natural gas rallied on short covering amid forecasts of slightly colder weather.
* However, the weekend data pointed to an exceptionally light demand in the next seven days and in April 21-24
* U.S. energy firms cut the number of oil and natural gas rigs operating for a second week in a row.


Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -0.51% at 767.15 as a raft of weak economic data stoked concerns about demand. Meanwhile, tight inventories lent some support to the market. Chile, saw exports of the red metal reach $4.59 billion in March, up 9.9% from a year earlier. A court has ruled that Ecuador failed to give local communities in a highly biodiverse province their right to an environmental consultation on a joint copper mining venture by state-run ENAMI and a subsidiary of Chile's Codelco, lawyers for the communities said, and the project must be suspended. China's services activity in March revved up at the quickest pace in 2-1/2 years on robust new orders and job creation and a consumption-led post-COVID recovery, a private-sector survey showed. However, support for copper comes from stocks in LME registered warehouses, which at 65,250 tonnes have dropped almost 15% over the past two weeks. Cancelled warrants – metal earmarked for delivery – at around 47% of the total suggest more metal is due to leave the LME system, leaving on warrant stocks at 34,350 tonnes, the lowest since late 2021. Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 0.5 % from last Friday, the exchange said. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 1.93% to settle at 3798 while prices are down -3.95 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 763.2 and below same could see a test of 759.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 772.5, a move above could see prices testing 777.9.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 759.3-777.9.
* Copper prices dropped as a raft of weak economic data stoked concerns about demand.
* Meanwhile, tight inventories lent some support to the market.
* Chile copper exports total $4.59 billion in March

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled up by 0.36% at 248.2 as expectations of improved Chinese demand lent support. However, general downward sentiment and continued lack of momentum out of China is bringing metals down to their fundamental levels, erasing some of the risk-on sentiment that we saw take place last week. Weak U.S. manufacturing activity, which slumped to the lowest level in nearly three-years in March, weighed on prices. Toho Zinc Co Ltd, plans to produce 38,800 tonnes of refined zinc in the first half of the 2023/24 financial year, down 1.5% from a year earlier. Chinese spot treatment charges for zinc concentrate slipped from their highest in more than two years in March and will likely fall further on high smelter utilisation rates and a demand recovery in its biggest consuming market. An over-supplied zinc concentrate market in China had pushed spot treatment charges (TCs) to 5,100 yuan ($742) a tonne in January-February, as miners were prepared to pay more for smelters to process the excess of material into refined metal. The global zinc market deficit fell to 18,300 tonnes in January from a revised deficit of 80,300 tonnes a month earlier, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -2.07% to settle at 3588 while prices are up 0.9 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 245.9 and below same could see a test of 243.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 249.7, a move above could see prices testing 251.2.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 243.6-251.2.
* Zinc gains as expectations of improved Chinese demand lent support.
* Toho Zinc Co Ltd, plans to produce 38,800 tonnes of refined zinc in the first half of the 2023/24 financial year, down 1.5% from a year earlier.
* The global zinc market deficit fell to 18,300 tonnes in January from a revised deficit of 80,300 tonnes a month earlier


Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 0.31% at 207.2 as the 780,000 mt of aluminium capacity in Yunnan that was previously curtailed has not yet resumed production. On the demand side, downstream operating rates improved. China's factory activity growth stalled in March, weighed by slowing production and weaker global demand and adding to uncertainty about a post-COVID recovery, a private sector survey showed. The Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to 50.0 in March. Social inventory of aluminium ingots continued to drop. With little disruption to supply and demand, overseas crude oil production cuts may provide upward momentum to aluminium prices some in the short term. China will safeguard the yuan and financial stability, central bank governor Yi Gang told. Yi's remarks in the wake of the global banking crisis were quoted in a statement posted on the People's Bank of China. China had taken a series of measures to curb financial risks and to guard against systemic financial risks, Yi said. The aluminium ingot social inventories across China’s eight major markets totalled 1.04 million mt as of April 6, down 50,000 mt from a week ago and 28,000 mt from this Monday April 3. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -1.29% to settle at 2821 while prices are up 0.65 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 206.4 and below same could see a test of 205.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 207.9, a move above could see prices testing 208.5.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 205.5-208.5.
* Aluminum gains as production not yet resumed in Yunnan
* The aluminium ingot social inventories across China totalled 1.04 million mt as of April 6, down 50,000 mt
* China will safeguard the yuan and financial stability

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -1.41% at 978 as demand was poor due to recession fears and global banking turmoil. The collapse of California’s Silicon Valley Bank and troubles at Swiss lender Credit Suisse have shaken the financial markets and dampened the outlook for oil consumption. Market participants expect prices to remain under pressure until demand recovers and market sentiment improves. Mentha exports during Apr-Jan 2023, dropped by 13.65 percent to 2,016.77 tonnes as compared to 2,335.63 tonnes exported during Apr-Jan 2022. In January 2023 around 233.21 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 298.38 tonnes in December 2022 showing a drop of 21.84%. In January 2023 around 233.21 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 171.07 tonnes in January 2022 showing a rise of 36.32%. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -12.9 Rupees to end at 1155.4 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -3.02% to settle at 643 while prices are down -14 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 973.3 and below same could see a test of 968.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 985.2, a move above could see prices testing 992.3.

Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 968.5-992.3.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -12.9 Rupees to end at 1155.4 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil prices dropped as demand was poor due to recession fears and global banking turmoil.
* Mentha exports during Apr-Jan 2023, dropped by 13.65 percent to 2,016.77 tonnes
* In January 2023 around 233.21 tonnes was exported against 298.38 tonnes in December 2022 showing a drop of 21.84%.

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -2.11% at 6876 as turmeric harvesting has started in the key growing regions and farmers and stockists are releasing their stocks, in the fear of further decline in prices. In AP (Nizamabad) Turmeric market around 5,000-7,000 bags are arriving on an average daily basis. In the Erode spot market 400-600 bags are reported on a daily basis, In the Sangli district it is around 3500-7000 bags. Coupled with weak demand in the export and domestic market prices are trading at lower levels (in the current season). Turmeric exports during Apr-Jan 2023, rose by 7.76 percent at 1,36,492.59 tonnes as compared to 1,26,659.01 tonnes exported during Apr-Jan 2022. In January 2023 around 12,484.25 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 12,039.57 tonnes in December 2022 showing a rise of 3.69%. In January 2023 around 12,484.25 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 10,558.26 tonnes in January 2022 showing a rise of 18.24%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6871.65 Rupees dropped -84.6 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 30.31% to settle at 12425 while prices are down -148 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 6764 and below same could see a test of 6650 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7046, a move above could see prices testing 7214.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 6650-7214.
* Turmeric dropped as turmeric harvesting has started in the key growing regions and farmers and stockists are releasing their stocks
* Farmers and stockists are releasing their stocks, in the fear of further decline in prices
* The crop is good this season despite some projection of a lower crop.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6871.65 Rupees dropped -84.6 Rupees.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 6% at 39765 as crop worries grow due to unseasonal rains and hailstorms in Rajasthan, the major producing state. The market is expecting a lower yield and quality of jeera this season, which has boosted the demand from domestic and export buyers. The jeera growing regions in southern and north-western parts of Rajasthan in the districts of Alwar, Jaisalmer, Jaipur, Bikaner, Bhilwara, and Barmer have received a fresh spell of unseasonal rains in the past week, triggering concerns on the crop condition. For the jeera crop, moist or cloudy weather impacts the quality of the seed, which often turns blackish, indicating spoilage. According to FISS forecasts, cumin demand is predicted to exceed 85 lakh bags this year, with a likely supply of 65 lakh bags. One bag holds 55kg. This will result in a demand-supply imbalance. Currently, at least 70% of the crop in Rajasthan and around 30% in Gujarat have yet to be harvested. Because of the rain in both states, the total yield will be reduced. The cumin crop was destroyed by two bouts of unseasonal rainfall during the harvest season. In comparison to the planned arrival of 70 lakh bags, the stock will be reduced to 60-65 lakh bags, with a carry-forward stock of 5 lakh bags from last year. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 5066.9 Rupees to end at 41279.7 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 6.26% to settle at 7125 while prices are up 2250 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 39265 and below same could see a test of 38765 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 40015, a move above could see prices testing 40265.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 38765-40265.
* Jeera prices hit a 6% upper circuit to trade at an all-time high of Rs. 39765 level.
* The market is expecting a lower yield and quality of jeera this season, which has boosted the demand from domestic and export buyers.
* Cumin demand is predicted to exceed 85 lakh bags this year, with a likely supply of 65 lakh bags.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 5066.9 Rupees to end at 41279.7 Rupees per 100 kg

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