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Gold
Gold yesterday settled down by -0.49% at 59273 as the dollar rose, bouncing back from recent losses, amid hopes the Fed will continue with its monetary tightening to fight inflation. The Federal Reserve raised rates by an expected quarter of a percentage point, but signalled it was on the verge of pausing. The number of Americans submitting new jobless claims fell slightly last week, indicating that the recent financial market instability caused by the demise of two regional banks was having little effect on the economy. The Labor Department reported that initial applications for state unemployment benefits declined 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 192,000 for the week ending March 18. Physical gold dealers in India were forced to offer the steepest discounts in over a year to lure buyers put off by a record surge in local prices, while the banking crisis fueled steady demand in top buyer China. Discounts of up to $57 an ounce were offered in India over official domestic prices versus $27 discounts last week. The price rise also put a dampener on sales during the traditionally busy Gudi Padwa and Ugadi festivals in Maharashtra and Karnataka. In China, premiums eased slightly to $19-$25 over global benchmark spot prices from $20-$26 last week. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -16.94% to settle at 5918 while prices are down -292 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 58983 and below same could see a test of 58694 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 59768, a move above could see prices testing 60264.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 58694-60264.
* Gold dropped as dollar rose on hopes Fed will continue with monetary tightening
* Commerzbank expect gold price to climb to $2,000 per troy ounce by end of the year compared to $1,950 earlier
* UBS maintains positive outlook on gold, targeting $2,050/oz by 2023 – end

Silver
Silver yesterday settled up by 0.28% at 70411 as a result of banking sector volatility and Federal Reserve dovish language. According to Fed projections, just a quarter-point increase in interest rates is remaining in the Fed's tightening cycle, indicating that the FOMC will be extra cautious in dealing with current financial sector stress in the United States. Furthermore, the ongoing upheaval for US banks prompted a rush to the protection of bullion as US Treasury Secretary Yellen disputed that the government would protect all deposits in the US financial system. On the supply side, continuing withdrawals of bullion stocks boosted silver prices. Deutsche Bank announced the redemption of $1.5 billion of tier 2 notes due in 2028, as its credit default swaps reached their highest level since they were introduced in 2019. At the same time, UBS and Credit Suisse are being investigated by the US Justice Department for assisting Russian billionaires in evading sanctions. According to early estimates, the S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI jumped to 49.1 in March 2023 from 47.3 in February, above projections of 47. Durable goods orders in the United States, which measure the cost of orders received by manufacturers of products expected to last at least three years, fell 1% month over month in February 2023. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -0.44% to settle at 13850 while prices are up 199 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 69721 and below same could see a test of 69031 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 71291, a move above could see prices testing 72171.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 69031-72171.
* Silver prices rallied amid banking sector woes
* Commerzbank says mid-year forecast for silver at $22 per troy ounce; 2023-end forecast revised up to $26 from $25 earlier
* The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI jumped to 49.1 in March 2023 from 47.3 in February

Crude oil
Crude oil yesterday settled down by -1.07% at 5728 as US Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm warned lawmakers that replenishing strategic oil inventories would be "difficult" this year, fuelling speculation that the US government would only start buying at reduced prices. Russia's abundant crude supplies weighed on prices as well, because the country's previously expected decline in oil production will come from a larger base of output than previously suggested. Furthermore, even after Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen declared that authorities are prepared to take extra actions to stabilise US institutions, investors continue to avoid risky assets. According to the Energy Information Administration, crude oil supplies in the United States surprisingly surged last week to their highest level in almost two years, while gasoline and distillate inventories decreased. Crude inventories rose by 1.1 million barrels in the week ended March 17, hitting 481.2 million barrels, the highest level since May 20, 2021. According to the data, oil inventories have been steadily increasing since mid-December. Last week, oil stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub fell by 1.1 million barrels, according to the EIA. Refinery crude runs declined by 22,000 barrels per day (bpd) last week, but refinery utilisation rates increased by 0.4 percentage point. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -0.96% to settle at 8542 while prices are down -62 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 5572 and below same could see a test of 5417 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5847, a move above could see prices testing 5967.

Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 5417-5967.
* Crude oil dropped after U.S. Energy Secretary said refilling SPR may take several years
* Russia's abundant crude supplies weighed on prices as well
* Crude oil supplies in the United States surprisingly surged last week to their highest level in almost two years

Nat.Gas
Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 1.74% at 181.7 on forecasts confirming the weather will remain mostly colder than normal for the next two weeks, keeping heating demand higher than usual through early April. That price increase also came on expectations the amount of gas flowing to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants would hit a record high during the month of March after Freeport LNG's export plant in Texas exited an eight-month outage in February. It shut in a fire in June 2022. Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 98.4 bcfd so far in March, from 98.1 bcfd in February. That compares with a monthly record of 99.9 bcfd in November 2022. In addition, extreme cold in early February and late December cut gas output as some oil and gas wells in several producing basins froze. Gas stockpiles were about 23% above their five-year average (2018-2022) during the week ended March 17 and were expected to end about 20% above normal during the colder-than-normal week ended March 24, according to federal data. Milder winter weather so far this year has prompted utilities to leave more gas in storage than usual. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -24.05% to settle at 18883 while prices are up 3.1 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 177.7 and below same could see a test of 173.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 185.2, a move above could see prices testing 188.6.

Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 173.6-188.6.
* Natural gas gained on forecasts the weather will remain colder than normal
* Support also seen on expectations the amount of gas flowing to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants would hit a record high during the month of March
* Average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 98.4 bcfd so far in March, from 98.1 bcfd in February.

Copper
Copper yesterday settled down by -0.3% at 772.1 with the market still assessing wider banking sector turbulence and the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy decision for a price direction. The world's refined copper market had a 103,000 tonne surplus in January, compared with a 10,000 tonnes surplus the previous month, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said in its latest monthly bulletin. World refined copper output was 2.27 million tonnes and consumption was 2.16 million tonnes, the ICSG said. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen reiterated that she was prepared to take further action to ensure that Americans' bank deposits stayed safe, in a bid to calm investor nerves. Fresh data showed that copper demand in China rose by 13 percent year-on-year in February, supported by the increase in infrastructure construction and new energy investments amid the country’s economic reopening. In the meantime, mining exports from major producer Peru sank nearly 20% annually in January due to the widespread protests, while inventories at the Shanghai Futures Exchange remained at lower levels. Depleting stocks in Shanghai and robust demand drove key commodity trader Trafigura to forecast that copper prices could rise to a record-high this year, while supply and demand imbalances led Goldman Sachs to expect the world may run out of visible copper inventories by September. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -0.19% to settle at 3695 while prices are down -2.35 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 766.1 and below same could see a test of 760.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 779.3, a move above could see prices testing 786.5.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 760.1-786.5.
* Copper slid with the market still assessing wider banking sector turbulence
* World refined copper market in 103,000 tonne surplus in January –ICSG
* Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 11.6 % from last Friday.

Zinc
Zinc yesterday settled down by -0.72% at 255.7 amid expectations for growing zinc ingot supply and sluggish consumption. Chinese spot treatment charges for zinc concentrate slipped from their highest in more than two years in March and will likely fall further on high smelter utilisation rates and a demand recovery in its biggest consuming market. An over-supplied zinc concentrate market in China had pushed spot treatment charges (TCs) to 5,100 yuan ($742) a tonne in January-February, as miners were prepared to pay more for smelters to process the excess of material into refined metal. SHFE inventories of refined zinc surged 582% from December 2022 to 123,894 tonnes by March 10, exchange data showed, correlating with the ramp-up at smelters. The global zinc market deficit fell to 18,300 tonnes in January from a revised deficit of 80,300 tonnes a month earlier, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. Previously, the ILZSG had reported a deficit of 100,500 tonnes in December. The deficit of 18,300 tonnes in January compares with a surplus of 15,000 tonnes in the same month last year, ILZSG data showed. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -2.05% to settle at 1958 while prices are down -1.85 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 254.1 and below same could see a test of 252.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 258.5, a move above could see prices testing 261.4.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 252.6-261.4.
* Zinc dropped on expectations for growing ingot supply and sluggish consumption.
* China's zinc treatment charges fall from multi – year high as smelters ramp up
* Global zinc market deficit slides to 18,300 T in January – ILZSG

Aluminium
Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.24% at 205.65 as the resumption of production by aluminium smelters in Sichuan, Guizhou and other places has led to a slight recovery on the supply side. Downstream consumption continued to pick up, driving domestic aluminium ingot social inventory to fall rapidly. The aluminium ingot social inventories across China’s eight major markets stood at 1.13 million mt as of March 23, down 85,000 mt from a week ago and 47,000 mt from Monday March 20. The figure, albeit up 85,000 mt from the same period last year, has fallen 143,000 mt from the peak recorded in early March. Stocks across three major markets dropped sharply, led by south China, where fewer cargoes arrived following output cuts by smelters earlier while demand recovered. After two weeks of accumulation, the domestic aluminium billet social inventory dipped 1,500 mt from a week ago to 167,900 mt as of March 23. Stable aluminium billet production ensured smooth arrivals. More billets flowed to Foshan instead of Wuxi due to widening price difference between the two regions. The imports of unwrought aluminium alloy stood at 81,000 mt in January 2023, down 30.5% year-on-year and 12.3% month-on-month, according to General Administration of Customs. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 25.61% to settle at 2668 while prices are down -0.5 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 204.8 and below same could see a test of 203.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 207.2, a move above could see prices testing 208.6.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 203.8-208.6.
* Aluminium dropped as resumption of production led to recovery in supply.
* China’s aluminium ingot social inventories stood at 1.13 million mt as of March 23, down 85,000 mt from a week ago
* The output for the months of January and February 2023 was 6.5 million tonnes, an increase of 5.3% on year

Mentha oil
Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.96% at 1003.7 as demand was poor due to recession fears and global banking turmoil. The collapse of California’s Silicon Valley Bank and troubles at Swiss lender Credit Suisse have shaken the financial markets and dampened the outlook for oil consumption. Market participants expect prices to remain under pressure until demand recovers and market sentiment improves. Mentha exports during Apr-Jan 2023, dropped by 13.65 percent to 2,016.77 tonnes as compared to 2,335.63 tonnes exported during Apr-Jan 2022. In January 2023 around 233.21 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 298.38 tonnes in December 2022 showing a drop of 21.84%. In January 2023 around 233.21 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 171.07 tonnes in January 2022 showing a rise of 36.32%. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 10.1 Rupees to end at 1188.3 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 18.91% to settle at 805 while prices are down -9.7 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 997 and below same could see a test of 990.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1014.2, a move above could see prices testing 1024.8.

Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 990.4-1024.8.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 10.1 Rupees to end at 1188.3 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil prices dropped as demand was poor due to recession fears and global banking turmoil.
* Mentha exports during Apr-Jan 2023, dropped by 13.65 percent to 2,016.77 tonnes
* In January 2023 around 233.21 tonnes was exported against 298.38 tonnes in December 2022 showing a drop of 21.84%.

Turmeric
Turmeric yesterday settled down by -1.51% at 6896 as turmeric harvesting has started in the key growing regions and farmers and stockists are releasing their stocks, in the fear of further decline in prices. In AP (Nizamabad) Turmeric market around 5,000-7,000 bags are arriving on an average daily basis. In the Erode spot market 400-600 bags are reported on a daily basis, In the Sangli district it is around 3500-7000 bags. Coupled with weak demand in the export and domestic market prices are trading at lower levels (in the current season). Turmeric exports during Apr-Jan 2023, rose by 7.76 percent at 1,36,492.59 tonnes as compared to 1,26,659.01 tonnes exported during Apr-Jan 2022. In January 2023 around 12,484.25 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 12,039.57 tonnes in December 2022 showing a rise of 3.69%. In January 2023 around 12,484.25 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 10,558.26 tonnes in January 2022 showing a rise of 18.24%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6995.7 Rupees gained 35 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -4.91% to settle at 10950 while prices are down -106 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 6798 and below same could see a test of 6698 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7080, a move above could see prices testing 7262.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 6698-7262.
* Turmeric dropped as turmeric harvesting has started and farmers and stockists are releasing their stocks.
* Farmers and stockists are releasing their stocks, in the fear of further decline in prices
* The crop is good this season despite some projection of a lower crop.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6995.7 Rupees gained 35 Rupees.

Jeera
Jeera yesterday settled up by 0.5% at 34965 as unfavorable weather conditions affecting supply from main producing areas. This year, there is a stock deficit, lesser output, and increased export demand for jeera. Cumin harvests in Gujarat are now higher than last year, but recent rains are projected to lower yields by at least 20%. Gujarat produced 2.15 lakh metric tonnes (MT) of cumin in 2023. Currently, over 30% of Gujarat's crop remains unharvested in the districts of Kutch and Banaskantha. Due to unseasonal rain in certain regions, a portion of this crop is likely to be damaged or of low quality. According to FISS forecasts, cumin demand is predicted to exceed 85 lakh bags this year, with a likely supply of 65 lakh bags. One bag holds 55kg. This will result in a demand-supply imbalance. Currently, at least 70% of the crop in Rajasthan and around 30% in Gujarat have yet to be harvested. Because of the rain in both states, the total yield will be reduced. The cumin crop was destroyed by two bouts of unseasonal rainfall during the harvest season. In comparison to the planned arrival of 70 lakh bags, the stock will be reduced to 60-65 lakh bags, with a carry-forward stock of 5 lakh bags from last year. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 354.3 Rupees to end at 34373.65 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -1.42% to settle at 5847 while prices are up 175 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 34700 and below same could see a test of 34435 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 35355, a move above could see prices testing 35745.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 34435-35745.
* Jeera gains as unfavorable weather conditions affecting supply
* Support also seen amid a stock deficit, lesser output, and increased export demand for jeera
* Cumin demand is predicted to exceed 85 lakh bags this year, with a likely supply of 65 lakh bags.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 354.3 Rupees to end at 34373.65 Rupees per 100 kg.

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