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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.38% at 54971 helped by a dip in the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, although prices moved in a tight range as investors refrained from making large bets in anticipation of fresh market drivers. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits edged higher last week but remain in a range indicating the U.S. job market remains tight, even as the Federal Reserve works to cool demand for labor as part of its bid to lower inflation. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 9,000 to a seasonally adjusted 225,000 for the week ended Dec. 24, the Labor Department said. The claims figures have been choppy in recent weeks but have held well below the 270,000 threshold that economists see as a red flag for the labor market. China's net gold imports via Hong Kong in November fell by about 10% from the previous month, Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department data showed. Net imports into the world's top gold consumer stood at 16.849 tonnes in November, compared with 18.664 tonnes in October, the data showed. Total gold imports via Hong Kong were down 2% to 20.847 tonnes. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 1.08% to settle at 13729 while prices are up 210 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 54756 and below same could see a test of 54541 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 55102, a move above could see prices testing 55233.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 54541-55233.
* Gold edged higher helped by a dip in the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields
* Prices moved in a tight range as investors refrained from making large bets in anticipation of fresh market drivers.
* The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits edged higher but remain in a range



Silver

Silver yesterday settled up by 1.09% at 69767 as U.S. Treasury yields slipped on worries about a recession. Global sentiment turned fragile as a surge in COVID cases in China offset investor optimism over the reopening of the economy. Italy, Japan, Taiwan, India and the United States have imposed mandatory tests for Chinese travelers amid concerns over the spread of infections. Stronger-than-expected US data reinforced the Federal Reserve’s case to raise interest rates further and keep them higher for longer. The personal consumption expenditure price index in the United States increased by 5.5% year-on-year in November of 2022, the least since October of 2021 and below 6.1% in October. Personal spending in the US edged up a meagre 0.1% month-over-month in November of 2022, following an upwardly revised 0.9% jump in October and below market forecasts of 0.2%, as consumer spending cooled during the holiday season. Shortage fears also supported prices, as New York’s COMEX inventories fell 70% in the last 18 months to just over 1 million tonnes. Also, the London Bullion Market Association stockpiles fell for the 10th straight month to a record-low 27.1 thousand tonnes in November. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 9.14% to settle at 22569 while prices are up 754 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 69023 and below same could see a test of 68280 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 70204, a move above could see prices testing 70642.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 68280-70642.
* Silver rose as U.S. Treasury yields slipped on worries about a recession.
* Global sentiment turned fragile as a surge in COVID cases in China offset investor optimism over the reopening of the economy.
* Italy, Japan, Taiwan, India and the United States have imposed mandatory tests for Chinese travelers amid concerns over the spread of infections.


Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -0.66% at 6473 on demand fears resulting from surging COVID-19 cases in China. Investors continued to weigh on the impact that China’s reopening could have on global energy markets. While the end of strict lockdowns initially increased projections of oil demand for the world’s top consumer, soaring infections raised concerns of Covid restrictions elsewhere and ramped up worries of prolonged inflation and monetary tightening, pressuring prices in oil benchmarks. Meanwhile, oil prices remain supported by supply concerns after Moscow moved to ban exports of Russian crude oil and refined products to foreign buyers that adopt the G7 price cap from February 1 until at least July 2023. U.S. crude oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) dropped 3.6 million barrels last week to 378.6 million barrels, its lowest since December 1983, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said. Markets, however, drew some support from Russian President Vladimir Putin's ban on exports of crude oil and oil products from Feb. 1 for five months to nations that abide by a Western price cap. Russian oil pipeline operator Transneft said Kazakhstan's KazTransOil had requested an additional 1.2 million tonnes of capacity on the Druzhba pipeline for 2023 to facilitate extra oil shipments to Germany. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 0.99% to settle at 5820 while prices are down -43 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6388 and below same could see a test of 6304 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6549, a move above could see prices testing 6626.
Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 6304-6626.
* Crude oil falls as China COVID spike dampens demand outlook
* Investors continued to weigh on the impact that China’s reopening could have on global energy markets.
* U.S. crude oil inventories fell less than expected, by about 1.3 million barrels - API.


Natural Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -2.41% at 375.9 amid prospects of lower heating demand on forecasts for much warmer-than-normal temperatures this week and extending into early January. Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 139.9 bcfd last week to 145.7 bcfd this week before dropping to 113.9 bcfd in the next week with the weather expected to turn mild in early January. Freeport LNG said it was again delaying the restart of the export facility, this time from the end of the year to the second half of January, pending regulatory approval. The latest delay follows several others from October to November, to December, to around the end of the year. Gas stockpiles are currently about 0.4% below the five-year (2017-2021) average for this time of year. U.S. and Canadian natural gas production is expected to hit new records in 2023, but growth may be slow due to weakened demand, pipeline bottlenecks and a lack of new liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants. Gas demand surged worldwide after Russia cut off Europe's primary supply, and the United States and Canada are expected to feed copious demand for exports in coming years, bolstered by high prices. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 4.79% to settle at 25033 while prices are down -9.3 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 364.7 and below same could see a test of 353.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 394.4, a move above could see prices testing 412.9.
Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 353.5-412.9.
* Natural gas dropped amid prospects of lower heating demand on forecasts for much warmer-than-normal temperatures.
* Projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 139.9 bcfd last week to 145.7 bcfd this week
* Freeport LNG said it was again delaying the restart of the export facility, this time from the end of the year to the second half of January.



Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -0.27% at 722.75 as rising COVID-19 infections in China and fears of a global recession weighed on prices. Spikes in China's COVID-19 cases and the Lunar New Year holiday next month are expected to dampen metals demand in the world's top consumer of industrial metals, although supply concerns could lend some support. Attention is also focused on a dispute over taxes between Panama's government and First Quantum Minerals. The company's Cobre Panama mine produced 331,000 tonnes of copper last year. China will stop requiring inbound travellers to go into quarantine from Jan. 8 in a major step towards easing curbs on its borders that have been largely shut since 2020. China's top copper smelters agreed on a guidance price for treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) for copper concentrate in the first quarter of 2023, rather than setting the typical floor price, three sources with knowledge of the matter said, suggesting there will be more flexibility in purchasing negotiations next year. The rates of $93 per tonne and 9.3 cents per pound were unchanged from the current quarter but up from $70 per tonne and 7 cents per lb set for the first quarter of 2022. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -0.1% to settle at 4029 while prices are down -1.95 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 719.5 and below same could see a test of 716.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 726.1, a move above could see prices testing 729.3.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 716.1-729.3.
* Copper prices slid as rising COVID-19 infections in China and fears of a global recession weighed on prices.
* Spikes in China's COVID-19 cases and the Lunar New Year holiday next month are expected to dampen metals demand.
* China smelter group sets copper TC/RC guide price for Q1 2023 at $93/T


Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -0.44% at 268.75 as China produced 605,000 mt of zinc in November, an increase of 2.9% year on year. Output at some smelters topped their expectations and this pushed domestic refined zinc output higher in November. Smelters across China resumed production in December. SMM understood that the smelters in Sichuan resumed normal production and contributed the main output growth. The impact of the COVID-19 at some smelters in Qinghai gradually eased and they will gradually resume normal production. However, some smelters in Yunnan have slightly reduced their output as the impact of the COVID-19 lingers. The People’s Bank of China injected a total CNY 202 billion of reverse repos into the banking system on Wednesday, including CNY 189 billion through the seven-day tenor and CNY 13 billion through the 14-day tenor, while keeping the rate unchanged at 2% and 2.15%, respectively. It was the eighth straight session of the big injection to maintain the reasonable and sufficient liquidity in the banking system at the end of the year, according to an online statement. Last week, the PBOC injected a net of CNY 704 billion into the banking system, the largest weekly injection since late October. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 2.99% to settle at 2033 while prices are down -1.2 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 267.5 and below same could see a test of 266.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 271.4, a move above could see prices testing 273.9.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 266.1-273.9.
* Zinc dropped as China produced 605,000 mt of zinc in November, an increase of 2.9% year on year.
* Output at some smelters topped their expectations and this pushed domestic refined zinc output higher in November.
* The People’s Bank of China injected a total CNY 202 billion of reverse repos into the banking system


Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 1.1% at 210.5 as the domestic aluminium supply growth is likely to fall short of expectations amid power rationing in south-west China. LME aluminium inventories fell back again last week after a slight rebound. The latest inventory level was 466,600 mt, which is lowest prices in the past two months. SHFE aluminium inventory kept picking up and increased by 3.43% on a weekly basis to 95,539 mt. On the consumption side, the downstream processing sectors were in the seasonal low, and the operating rates were further weighed on by the spiking number of covid-infected employees. China's imports of primary aluminium jumped to a one-year high of 110,700 tonnes in November in a significant reversal of the recent trend. The country flipped to net exporter in the first half of 2022, with primary metal shipped as far as Europe and the United States to capitalise on sky-high physical premiums. The premiums are now much reduced. The People’s Bank of China injected a total CNY 202 billion of reverse repos into the banking system on Wednesday, including CNY 189 billion through the seven-day tenor and CNY 13 billion through the 14-day tenor, while keeping the rate unchanged at 2% and 2.15%, respectively. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 9.14% to settle at 4253 while prices are up 2.3 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 208.5 and below same could see a test of 206.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 211.7, a move above could see prices testing 212.8.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 206.4-212.8.
* Aluminium gains as the domestic aluminium supply growth is likely to fall short of expectations amid power rationing in south-west China.
* SHFE aluminium inventory kept picking up and increased by 3.43% on a weekly basis to 95,539 mt.
* China's imports of primary aluminium jumped to a one-year high of 110,700 tonnes in November


Mentha

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.42% at 1018.9 on profit booking after prices gained as the group of ministers’ (GoM’s) has given its views on bringing mentha oil, one of the key ingredients in pan masala, under the reverse charge mechanism. Mentha exports during Apr-Oct 2022 has dropped by 20.15 percent at 1,249.02 tonnes as compared to 1,564.12 tonnes exported during Apr- Oct 2021. In the month of October 2022 around 141.82 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 220.67 tonnes in September 2022 showing a drop of 35.73%. In the month of October 2022 around 141.82 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 279.00 tonnes in October 2021 showing a drop of 49.17%. Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted. Support also seen amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 17.6 Rupees to end at 1173.1 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 2.46% to settle at 959 while prices are down -4.3 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 1013.8 and below same could see a test of 1008.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1025.6, a move above could see prices testing 1032.2.
Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 1008.6-1032.2.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 17.6 Rupees to end at 1173.1 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil dropped on profit booking after prices gained as GoM’s has given its views on bringing mentha oil, under the reverse charge mechanism.
* Mentha exports during Apr-Oct 2022 has dropped by 20.15 percent at 1,249.02 tonnes.
* In the month of October 2022 around 141.82 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 279.00 tonnes in October 2021

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -0.24% at 8288 on profit booking after prices gained as amid buying activities has increased amid weaker production for upcoming season. Not only weaker production, robust export demand and looming uncertainty over extent of crop damage in Andhra Pradesh will also help prices to trade on positive note. Marathwada region has been serving as a round-the-year supply centre for Turmeric since past couple of years. Agriculture Minister Narendra Singh Tomar said unseasonal rains in some parts of the country have affected the crops. Turmeric exports during Apr- Oct 2022 has rose by 11.09 percent at 99,569.88 tonnes as compared to 89,626.39 tonnes exported during Apr- Oct 2021. In the month of October 2022 around 11,178.11 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 13,990.65 tonnes in September 2022 showing a fall of 20.10%. In the month of October 2022 around 11,178.11 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 12,534.87 tonnes in October 2021 showing a fall of 10.82%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7426.85 Rupees dropped -31.15 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 0.85% to settle at 10680 while prices are down -20 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 8222 and below same could see a test of 8156 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8342, a move above could see prices testing 8396.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 8156-8396.
* Turmeric dropped on profit booking after prices gained as buying activities has increased amid weaker production for upcoming season.
* However, robust export demand and looming uncertainty over extent of crop damage in Andhra Pradesh limited downside
* Marathwada region has been serving as a round-the-year supply centre for Turmeric since past couple of years.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7426.85 Rupees dropped -31.15 Rupees.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 1.06% at 30380 as sowing In Gujarat, dropped by nearly -6% with 268,775.00 hectares against sown area of 2021 which was 286,514.00 hectares. Prices gained to all time high amid higher demand for the fresh crop and supply tightness in the physical market. Good demand expected from China in December-January and Ramzan demand during January-February from gulf & other countries. Jeera exports during Apr- Oct 2022 has dropped by 18.92 percent at 1,22,015.13 tonnes as compared to 1,50,479.11 tonnes exported during Apr- Oct 2021. In the month of October 2022 around 12,427.86 tonnes jeera was exported as against 18,081.78 tonnes in September 2022 showing a drop of 31.27%. In the month of October 2022 around 12,427.86 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 11,260.72 tonnes in October 2021 showing a rise of 10.36%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. Jeera production was seen at 725,651 tn, down 8.8% on year due to lower acreage in Rajasthan and Gujarat, the key producer, according to data from Spices Board India. According to fourth advanced estimates by Gujarat government, jeera production is seen fall by 44.5 per cent to 221500 tonnes in 2021-22 on yoy basis. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 321.85 Rupees to end at 29546.25 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 2.03% to settle at 6930 while prices are up 320 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 29960 and below same could see a test of 29545 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 30640, a move above could see prices testing 30905.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 29545-30905.
* Jeera prices gained as sowing in Gujarat, dropped by nearly -6% to 268,775 hectares
* Support also seen amid higher demand for the fresh crop and supply tightness.
* All-India Jeera production is expected to fall in the Marketing year 2022-23 by around 33% to 3 lakh tonnes on y-o-y basis due to lower sowings.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 321.85 Rupees to end at 29546.25 Rupees per 100 kg.

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