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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.52% at 58107 as yield on the US 10-year Treasury note hovered around 3.7%, as investors weigh fresh economic data pointing to a resilient economy and prospects that interest rates will continue to march higher. Durable goods orders beat forecasts for a third consecutive month, new homes sales surged to the highest level in over a year and the CB consumer confidence hit the highest level since early 2022. Fed Chair Powell reiterated to the Congress that interest rates would need to go higher and signalled two more rate hikes. China's net gold imports via Hong Kong fell by about 1.7% in May from the previous month, as concerns over the top consumer's economy were seen weighing on retail demand for jewellery. Net imports into the world's top gold consumer stood at 49.056 tonnes in May, compared with 49.906 tonnes in April, Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department data showed. Total gold imports via Hong Kong were down 3.5% at 51.722 tonnes, from 53.581 tonnes in April. China's net gold imports via Hong Kong could drop 7-8% in the second half of the year. The Hong Kong data may not give a full picture of Chinese purchases because gold is also imported through Shanghai and Beijing. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 0.4% to settle at 12491 while prices are down -305 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 57935 and below same could see a test of 57762 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 58415, a move above could see prices testing 58722.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 58452-59070.
* Gold edged higher helped by a pullback in the dollar and bond yields
* Fed is close to end of rate hiking cycle, central bank officials say
* Markets are pricing in a 25 basis-point rate hike from the Fed later this month after last week's jobs report pointed to a resilient U.S. economy

Silver

Silver yesterday settled up by 0.23% at 69341 as traders positioned for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech and economic data that could offer clues on future interest rate hikes. Sales of new single-family houses in the US jumped 12.2% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annualised rate of 763K in May of 2023, the highest level since February last year, and compared to forecasts of 675K. Sales increased 17.6% to 40K in the Northeast, 17.4% to 175K in the West, 11.3% to 471K in the South and 4.1% to 77K in the Midwest. New orders for US manufactured durable goods jumped 1.7% month-over-month in May 2023, following an upwardly revised 1.2% rise in April and easily beating market expectations of a 1% decline. It marks a third straight month of rising durable goods orders, led by a 3.9% surge in transportation equipment, namely nondefense aircraft and parts (32.5%) and motor vehicles (2.2%). Investors await further hints on the future rate path and will closely monitor appearances from several Fed officials, including Chair Powel, further economic data and the Bank Stress Test results. Market participants are currently assigning a nearly 77% chance the Fed will deliver a 25bps increase in the fed funds rate in July. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -30.64% to settle at 6185 while prices are up 156 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 68986 and below same could see a test of 68632 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 69773, a move above could see prices testing 70206.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 70458-72202.
* Silver dropped on profit booking after gains on hopes of end to Fed rate hikes
* Fed is close to end of rate hiking cycle, central bank officials say
* Silver production out of Peru contracted by 7% year-on-year in the first four months of 2023

Crude oil
Crude oil yesterday settled down by -2.09% at 5617 as concerns over possible supply disruptions due to political instability in Russia eased and European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde reiterated that the central bank will continue to increase rates in July. The downside was capped by China growth optimism and hopes of U.S. demand ahead of the summer driving season. Money managers raised their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions in the week to June 20, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said. The speculator group raise its combined futures and options position in New York and London by 4,790 contracts to 78,064 during the period. OPEC expects global oil demand to rise to 110 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2045, its Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais said, 23% higher than current levels. U.S. crude oil in storage at Cushing, Oklahoma rose by 1.6 million barrels last week to 42.1 million barrels, the highest since June 2021, according to the Energy Information Administration. EIA data also showed U.S. crude oil stocks in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve declined by 1.9 million barrels to a fresh four-decade low of 3.52 million in the week ended June 9. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 28.65% to settle at 19230 while prices are down -120 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 5544 and below same could see a test of 5471 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5728, a move above could see prices testing 5839.
Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 5964-6270.
* Crude oil gains as supply cuts by Saudi Arabia expected to tighten the market.
* Oil market to tighten with China demand and OPEC+ cuts, says IEA
* Saudi Arabia will extend its 1 mbpd output cut into August, and Russia will cut crude exports by 500,000 bpd.


Natural Gas
Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -1.06% at 233.4 on forecasts for less demand this week than previously expected related in part to a decline in the amount of gas flowing to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants. That price decline came despite a drop in output and forecasts for the weather to remain hotter-than-normal through mid-July, especially in Texas. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states fell from a record 102.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in May to 101.5 bcfd so far in June. On a daily basis, moreover, output was on track to plunge 2.3 bcfd to a preliminary 20-week low of 99.2 bcfd on Tuesday due mostly to declines in Pennsylvania and Texas. That would be the biggest daily drop in output since December 2022, but analysts noted preliminary data is often revised later in the day. Meteorologists forecast weather in the Lower 48 states would remain hotter than normal from June 28-July 12. With hotter weather coming, Refinitiv forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 97.0 bcfd this week to 102.2 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was lower than Refinitiv's outlook on Monday. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 8.81% to settle at 13542 while prices are down -2.5 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 230.5 and below same could see a test of 227.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 237.1, a move above could see prices testing 240.7.
Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 215.3-231.7.
* Natural gas climbed on forecasts for hotter weather that boost cooling demand.
* That price increase materialized even though drillers were pulling near record amounts of gas out of the ground.
* Speculators boosted their net long positions on to their highest levels since June 2022 for a third week in a row



Copper
Copper yesterday settled up by 0.05% at 716.8 as low supplies amid falling inventories in exchange warehouses offset concerns over tepid demand and a lack of fresh stimulus in top consumer China. The premium of LME cash copper over the three-month contract rose to $31 a tonne, a high-level unseen since November last year, indicating tightening nearby supplies. On-warrant copper inventories fell to 25,725 tons, the lowest level since October 2021. Inventories of the metal in SHFE and Chinese bonded warehouses have also been declining. Copper inventories at the LME and COMEX remained at low levels, dropping 7% on the week ending June 23rd. Also, Chile said this year's output is estimated to sink as much as 7% after the 10.6% decline in 2022. S&P Global said it has cut its 2023 GDP growth forecast for China after May data showed a post-COVID recovery was faltering in the world's second-largest economy. "China's recovery should continue but at an uneven pace, with investment and industry lagging." The Chinese government has refrained from mandating stimulus to support its struggling manufacturing sector, while the Fed, ECB, and BoE are set to continue raising interest rates and further cap industrial output. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -0.49% to settle at 5642 while prices are up 0.35 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 713.7 and below same could see a test of 710.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 722, a move above could see prices testing 727.1.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 712.1-729.5.
* Copper dropped amid weak economic data from China
* Pressure also seen amid concerns about the effect of a global economic slowdown on demand for growth-dependent base metals
* China's producer prices fell at their fastest pace in more than seven years in June


Zinc
Zinc yesterday settled up by 1.18% at 214.2 as global zinc market surplus fell to 12,500 metric tons in April, down from 65,000 tons a month earlier, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. During the first four months of 2023, ILZSG data showed a surplus of 137,000 metric tons, versus a surplus of 156,000 metric tons in the same period of 2022. Official PMIs from China, due this week, should provide some insight into demand outlook from the world's biggest metals consumer. Zinc inventories in London Metal Exchange-registered warehouses have nearly doubled from the prior week to a one-year peak after a shipment arrived in Malaysia. While Some European smelter capacity remains offline, China's producers are lifting production after soaking up surplus concentrates. Swedish producer Boliden has recently decided to halt operations at its Irish facilities, including the Tara Zinc mine, as the mine's cash flow turned negative, but it is unlikely to have much immediate impact on overall output. Weak demand from the construction industry has pushed zinc prices to levels which leave some miners with little or no profit and a prolonged period below $2,400 a metric ton is likely to trigger output cuts. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -6.67% to settle at 3147 while prices are up 2.5 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 212.8 and below same could see a test of 211.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 215.5, a move above could see prices testing 216.8.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 212-217.8.
* Zinc dropped amid concerns about the effect of a global economic slowdown
* Global zinc market surplus fell to 12,500 metric tons in April, down from 65,000 tons a month earlier
* China's factory activity growth slowed in June, with sentiment waning



Aluminium
Aluminium yesterday settled up by 1.41% at 198.3 as the pace of resuming production in Sichuan, Guizhou, and other regions is slow. Currently, Yunnan is experiencing heavy rainfall and reservoir water levels are rising. It is expected that Yunnan will resume production in mid to late July. In terms of inventory, LME inventory remains stable, while domestic inventory continues to decline. The combination of short-term macro benefits and low inventory has a certain boosting effect on aluminum prices. Continue to pay attention to the actual resumption of production and policy news in Yunnan. S&P Global said it has cut its 2023 GDP growth forecast for China after May data showed a post-COVID recovery was faltering in the world's second-largest economy. "We have reduced our 2023 GDP growth forecast to 5.2%, from 5.5%," it said in a research note. "China's recovery should continue but at an uneven pace, with investment and industry lagging." S&P is the first major international credit agency to cut its forecasts for China's economy this year, although several major banks including Goldman Sachs have lowered their estimates this month. Goldman Sachs reduced its forecast from 6% to 5.4%, citing persistently weak confidence and the cloud over the property market as stronger-than-expected headwinds. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -10.81% to settle at 3513 while prices are up 2.75 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 197.1 and below same could see a test of 195.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 199.3, a move above could see prices testing 200.2.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 195-198.6.
* Aluminium gains on heightened expectations for economic stimulus measures in China
* Western European production has been sliding steadily over the last 15 years
* Aluminium smelters in China's southwestern Yunnan province have started to ramp up production

Mentha oil
Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -1.21% at 901.5 on better sowing prospects. Reports of increased acreages and sluggish export of menthol will weigh on prices. Rising menthol imports, as well as China's limited purchasing, will put pressure on pricing. Mentha exports during Apr 2023, dropped by 42.52 percent to 97.85 tonnes as compared to 170.22 tonnes exported during Apr 2022. In April 2023 around 97.85 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 202.95 tonnes in March 2023 showing a drop of 51.78%. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 4.1 Rupees to end at 1039.2 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 5.22% to settle at 806 while prices are down -11 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 895.7 and below same could see a test of 889.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 912.3, a move above could see prices testing 923.
Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 882.7-903.3.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 10.2 Rupees to end at 1035.1 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Menthaoil prices dropped due to reports of improved crop progress.
* Yield is likely to increase due to favorable weather condition in major producing states.
* Moreover, reports of slack export of menthol will put pressure on prices.


Turmeric
Turmeric yesterday settled up by 1.07% at 9290 as the kharif sowing acreage is expected to decrease during the current season. In Maharashtra, the sowing area is projected to decline by 10%-20%. Similarly, in Tamil Nadu, the acreage is expected to decrease by 10%-15%. In Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, there is an anticipated decline of 18%-22% in the acreage compared to the previous season. Crop arrivals for the week ending June 10, 2023, were significantly lower at 3,731.85 MT, down 55% from the previous week. Support also seen as the untimely rains that occurred in various places in the Andhra Pradesh damaged turmeric crops causing huge loss to the farmers. Turmeric exports during Apr 2023, rose by 42.32 percent at 19,590.87 tonnes as compared to 13,765.03 tonnes exported during Apr 2022. In April 2023 around 19,590.87 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 18,810.47 tonnes in March 2023 showing a rise of 4.15%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8321.45 Rupees dropped -9.25 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -0.61% to settle at while prices are up 98 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 9156 and below same could see a test of 9020 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 9424, a move above could see prices testing 9556.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 10196-11284.
* Turmeric gained as the kharif sowing acreage is expected to decrease during the current season.
* However, upside were limited with forecast of good rainfall in Telangana and Maharashtra that will boost the ongoing sowing activities
* Supplies in Maharashtra and Telangana are likely to increase as farmers are getting fair realization on their produce.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 9772.55 Rupees gained 360.95 Rupees.


Jeera
Jeera yesterday settled down by -5.93% at 54640 due to good export demand and expectations of lower stocks end of the current marketing year. Prices rose on crop worries grow due to unseasonal rains and hailstorms in Rajasthan, the major producing state. The market is expecting a lower yield and quality of jeera this season, which has boosted the demand from domestic and export buyers. The jeera growing regions in southern and north-western parts of Rajasthan in the districts of Alwar, Jaisalmer, Jaipur, Bikaner, Bhilwara, and Barmer have received a fresh spell of unseasonal rains in the past week, triggering concerns on the crop condition. Marginal traders are avoiding bulk buying in anticipation of rise in seasonal supply of jeera in Gujarat and Rajasthan. Below normal supplies in the market supported firmness in prices. About 508 tonnes of jeera arrived on 6th June at major APMC mandis across India as compared to 653 tonnes of prior day. Tighter carryover stocks and lower production will push up the prices further. According to FISS forecasts, cumin demand is predicted to exceed 85 lakh bags this year, with a likely supply of 65 lakh bags. One bag holds 55kg. This will result in a demand-supply imbalance. Currently, at least 70% of the crop in Rajasthan and around 30% in Gujarat have yet to be harvested. Because of the rain in both states, the total yield will be reduced. The cumin crop was destroyed by two bouts of unseasonal rainfall during the harvest season. In comparison to the planned arrival of 70 lakh bags, the stock will be reduced to 60-65 lakh bags, with a carry-forward stock of 5 lakh bags from last year. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -1380.45 Rupees to end at 58124.1 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -6.86% to settle at while prices are down -3445 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 53630 and below same could see a test of 52615 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 56630, a move above could see prices testing 58615.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 58270-61120.
* Jeera dropped on profit booking after prices gained amid less stock and good demand.
* Traders are avoiding bulk buying in anticipation of rise in seasonal supply of jeera in Gujarat and Rajasthan.
* The market is expecting a lower yield and quality of jeera this season
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 574.05 Rupees to end at 59798.8 Rupees per 100 kg.

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