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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.11% at 50687 amid lingering concerns about a global recession and speculation that the Federal Reserve could slow the pace of rate increases later this year. The market movement came in tandem with a weaker dollar and easing Treasury yields after a report indicated that some Federal Reserve policymakers had expressed uncertainty on whether going through with the aggressively hawkish guidance could cause overtightening. Soft US data this week supported such a stance, as it signaled that tighter financial conditions are already impacting the economy. China's net gold imports via Hong Kong halved from the previous month in September, data showed. Net imports stood at their lowest since May at 33.896 tonnes in September, compared with 68.227 tonnes in August, data from the Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department showed. Meanwhile, total gold imports via Hong Kong were down 48% at 37.271 tonnes. A few Fed officials have softened their stance on tightening in recent days, prompting investors to reconsider the path of monetary policy. Third-quarter U.S. GDP data, due later this week, is expected to offer more clues on the economic and rate outlook. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 1% to settle at 11393 while prices are up 54 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 50575 and below same could see a test of 50464 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 50832, a move above could see prices testing 50978.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 50464-50978.
* Gold gained amid lingering concerns about a global recession and speculation that the Federal Reserve could slow the pace of rate increases later this year.
* Soft US data supported bullions, as it signaled that tighter financial conditions are already impacting the economy.
* A few Fed officials have softened their stance on tightening in recent days, prompting investors to reconsider the path of monetary policy
 

Silver 

Silver yesterday settled up by 0.19% at 58166 on hopes the US Federal Reserve could slow down the pace of interest rate increases soon to avoid overtightening. Investors are now almost certain that the US central bank will deliver a fourth-straight 75 bps rate hike on November 2nd but beliefs the Fed will pivot by December sparked a bond rally and dragged down the dollar, boosting the appeal of the non-interest bearing assets. Still, the cost of silver remains more than 25% below its March peak when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine spurred a rally in precious metals. The European Central Bank is expected to deliver a second consecutive 75bps rate hike tomorrow, raising borrowing costs to their highest since 2009 to curb inflation that rose to a record of 9.9% in September. At the same time, policymakers previously flagged the need to start unwinding the EUR 5 trillion in government bonds from the bank’s balance sheet and toughen conditions for TLTRO loans, placing pressure on European banks. On the macro front, flash PMI estimates showed the Eurozone economy slipped into a steeper downturn at the start of Q4, consistent with the GDP falling at a rate of around 0.2%. U.S. consumer confidence ebbed in October after two straight monthly increases amid rising concerns about inflation and a possible recession next year. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -1.46% to settle at 16823 while prices are up 111 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 57946 and below same could see a test of 57726 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 58423, a move above could see prices testing 58680.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 57726-58680.
* Silver extended gains on hopes the US Federal Reserve could slow down the pace of interest rate increases soon to avoid overtightening.
* Investors are now almost certain that the US central bank will deliver a fourth-straight 75 bps rate hike on November 2nd
* The European Central Bank is expected to deliver a second consecutive 75bps rate hike tomorrow

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 2.54% at 7230 as U.S. crude exports hit an all-time high and as the nation's refiners operated at higher-than-usual levels for this time of year. The EIA report showed that US crude inventories surged by about 2.588 million barrels last week, far exceeding expectations for an increase of 1.029 million barrels. Supply concerns persist, with the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Faith Birol, saying that tightening markets for liquefied natural gas worldwide and supply cuts by major oil producers have put the world in the middle of "the first truly global energy crisis." Data from the American Petroleum Institute showed that U.S. crude inventories grew by 4.5 million barrels last week, more than expectations for a build of 200,000 barrels. China's crude oil imports in September rose from the previous month but stayed 2% below their level a year earlier, data showed, as independent refiners curbed throughput amid thin margins and lackluster demand. The world's largest crude importer brought in 40.24 million tonnes of crude oil last month, equivalent to about 9.79 million barrels per day (bpd), according to data from the General Administration of Customs. The September imports compared to 9.5 million bpd in August and nearly 10 million bpd a year earlier. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 16.54% to settle at 4989 while prices are up 179 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 7112 and below same could see a test of 6995 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7306, a move above could see prices testing 7383.

Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 6995-7383.
* Crude oil rose as U.S. crude exports hit an all-time high and as the nation's refiners operated at higher-than-usual levels for this time of year.
* The EIA report showed that US crude inventories surged by about 2.588 million barrels last week
* Data from the API showed that U.S. crude inventories grew by 4.5 million barrels last wee

Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -0.99% at 500.9 due to forecasts of lower weather-driven demand, record domestic production levels. However, downside seen limited on expectations that LNG exports would increase due to the end of maintenance outages in plants including Berkshire Hathaway Energy, Cove Point LNG and Freeport LNG. Average US gas demand, including exports, is expected to rise to 97.1 bcfd next week, from 93.9 bcfd this week, below Refinitiv's outlook. Meanwhile, average gas output in the US Lower 48 states rose to 99.5 bcfd so far in October from a record 99.4 bcfd in September. The EIA report showed that US utilities added a more than expected 111 bcf of gas to storage last week, well above 91 bcf injected during the same week a year ago and a five-year (2017-2021) average increase of 73 bcf. With the coming of seasonally cooler weather, Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 93.9 bcfd this week to 97.1 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were similar to Refinitiv's outlook on Monday. The average amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants has fallen to 11.1 bcfd so far in October, against 11.5 bcfd in September and well below the monthly record of 12.9 bcfd in March. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 17.5% to settle at 6165 while prices are down -5 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 485 and below same could see a test of 469.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 512.8, a move above could see prices testing 524.8.

Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 469.2-524.8.
* Natural gas dropped due to forecasts of lower weather-driven demand, record domestic production levels.
* However, downside seen limited on expectations that LNG exports would increase due to the end of maintenance outages in plants
* Average US gas demand, including exports, is expected to rise to 97.1 bcfd next week, from 93.9 bcfd this week

Copper

Copper yesterday settled up by 1.98% at 663.3 supported by a weaker dollar and hopes that demand may improve amid the possibility that the Fed could slow its tightening momentum. Concerns of tight supplies in the long run were also prevalent, with industrial players flagging increasing risks of shortages. Commodity trader Trafigura warned that global copper stocks have fallen to record-lows, with current inventories enough to supply world consumption for just 4.9 days. Freeport-McMoran was also vocal about shortage risks, stating that the current low prices do not reflect the tightness in the physical market. Economic contraction and deepening recession fears drove copper prices to currently trade at 30% below the peak of $5 hit in March. China imported 25.6% more copper in September than a year earlier, data from the General Administration of Customs showed. Unwrought copper and copper product imports into China – including anode, refined, alloy and semi-finished copper products – totalled 509,954.1 tonnes in September. September's copper imports were up 2.4% from the previous month's 498,188.60 tonnes. Chile's Codelco, the world's largest copper miner expects copper demand in China, its main consumer, to be resilient, despite slower economic growth there, its Chairman Maximo Pacheco told. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -3.48% to settle at 4875 while prices are up 12.9 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 657.4 and below same could see a test of 651.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 667.1, a move above could see prices testing 670.7.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 651.3-670.7.
* Copper rose supported by a weaker dollar and hopes that demand may improve amid the possibility that the Fed could slow its tightening momentum.
* China Sept copper imports rise 25.6% on – year, 2.4% on – month
* Codelco expects China's copper demand to be resilient

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled up by 1.25% at 271.6 as global refined zinc markets are likely be in a deficit in both 2022 and 2023, the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) said. Zinc will be in a 297,000 tonnes deficit in 2022 and 150,000 tonnes deficit in 2023, respectively. Global demand for refined zinc is forecast to fall by 1.9% to 13.79 million tonnes in 2022, but rise by 1.5% to 13.99 million tonnes in 2023. With the economic sector absorbing the hardest hit from the aggressive interest rate hikes, sales of existing U.S. homes slid for an eighth straight month in September and will likely fall further in the months ahead. The global zinc market deficit rose to 101,100 tonnes in August from a revised deficit of 83,000 tonnes a month earlier, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. Previously, the ILZSG had reported a deficit of 72,800 tonnes in July. During the first eight months of 2022, ILZSG data showed a deficit of 4,000 tonnes versus a deficit of 49,000 tonnes in the same period of 2021. Data shows that the zinc ingot inventories across seven major markets in China totalled 100,000 mt as of October 21, up 5,600 mt from October 17 and up 11,300 mt on a weekly basis. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -20.86% to settle at 2432 while prices are up 3.35 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 269.9 and below same could see a test of 268.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 272.7, a move above could see prices testing 273.7.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 268.1-273.7.
* Zinc prices rose as global zinc market to be in deficit for 2022, 2023
* Global zinc market deficit climbs to 101,100 T in August – ILZSG
* The zinc ingot inventories across seven major markets in China totalled 100,000 mt as of October 21, up 5,600 mt from October 17

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 3.18% at 204.5 as hopes for a slower pace of U.S. interest rate rises boosted global stock markets and weakened the dollar. Weak U.S. economic data reinforced a sense among investors that the Federal Reserve will tighten policy less aggressively and therefore inflict less damage on the economy and demand for commodities. In China, the biggest metals consumer, the yuan registered its biggest one-day rise against the dollar since 2020 as the change in U.S. interest rate expectations was joined by news that state-owned banks were selling dollars to stabilise the currency. Supply of many metals remains tight and stockpiles are low, giving some support to prices. Also hanging over the market is the possibility that the LME will block Russian metal from its trading system, disrupting supply. China's primary aluminium production rose 9.3% to 3.42 million tonnes in September from a year earlier, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed. For the first nine months of the year, China produced 29.88 million tonnes, up 2.8% from the corresponding period last year, the data showed. China's GDP rebounded at a faster-than-expected pace in the third quarter, but strict COVID-19 curbs, a deepening property crisis and global recession risks are challenging Beijing's efforts to foster a robust revival over the next year. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 50.33% to settle at 5532 while prices are up 6.3 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 201.5 and below same could see a test of 198.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 206.4, a move above could see prices testing 208.1.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 198.3-208.1.
* Aluminum prices rose as hopes for a slower pace of U.S. interest rate rises boosted global stock markets and weakened the dollar.
* Supply of many metals remains tight and stockpiles are low, giving some support to prices.
* China September aluminium output at 3.42 mln tonnes – stats bureau

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.34% at 988.2 on low level buying after prices dropped as mentha exports during Apr-Aug 2022 has dropped by 14.27 percent at 886.53 tonnes as compared to 1034.14 tonnes exported during Apr-Aug 2021. Exports in the month of August 2022 were around 238.04 tonnes as against 155.04 tonnes in July 2022 showing a rise of 53.53%. In the month of August 2022 around 238.04 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 227.27 tonnes in August 2021 showing a rose of 4.74%. Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted. Support also seen amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Spot market, support seen after IMD issues Yellow Alert in key sowing area ; light-moderate rain to continue till Sept 4 impacting arrival in the mandi. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -13.1 Rupees to end at 1123.4 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 0.52% to settle at 1161 while prices are up 3.3 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 985.8 and below same could see a test of 983.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 989.7, a move above could see prices testing 991.2.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 983.4-991.2.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -13.1 Rupees to end at 1123.4 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil gained on low level buying after prices dropped as exports during Apr-Aug 2022 has dropped by 14.27 percent
* August exports were around 238.04 tonnes showing a rise of 53.53% compared to July 2022.
* However, Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted.

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -1.66% at 7572 amid lower demand from domestic spice-makers and stockists amid availability of Turmeric supply form Marathwada region. Marathwada region has been serving as a round-the-year supply centre for Turmeric since past couple of years. Agriculture Minister Narendra Singh Tomar said unseasonal rains in some parts of the country have affected the crops. As per Andhra Pradesh agricultural department, as on 06th October 2022 Turmeric sowing activity completed around 16,921 hectares as compared to last year same period 19,376 hectares, down by 12.67% till date. Turmeric exports during Apr-August 2022 has rose by 15.35 percent at 74,393.62 tonnes as compared to 64,493.34 tonnes exported during Apr- August 2021. In the month of August 2022 around 12,147.89 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 12,810.36 tonnes in July 2022 showing a drop of 5.17%. In the month of August 2022 around 12,147.89 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 11,617.90 tonnes in August 2021 showing a rise of 4.56%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7270.55 Rupees gained 5.4 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -1.09% to settle at 9965 while prices are down -128 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7458 and below same could see a test of 7342 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7704, a move above could see prices testing 7834.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7342-7834.
* Turmeric dropped amid lower demand from domestic spice-makers and stockists amid availability of Turmeric supply.
* As per Andhra Pradesh agricultural department, turmeric sowing activity completed around 16,921 hectares, down by 12.67% till date from last year.
* Marathwada region has been serving as a round-the-year supply centre for Turmeric since past couple of years.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7270.55 Rupees gained 5.4 Rupees.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 0.58% at 24095 due to moisture conditions as a result of higher rainfall sowing may be delayed by 10 to 15 days current year. Current year Jeera sowing is likely to start from October last week or November first week in Gujarat growing regions. However, reports sowing started in some parts of Rajasthan as moisture conditions is less and completed around 2% to 3% in the key growing regions. Current year sowing area likely to increase in Rajasthan and Gujarat growing regions. Jeera exports during Apr-August 2022 has dropped by 26.44 percent at 91,505.49 tonnes as compared to 1,24,390.31 tonnes exported during Apr- August 2021. In the month of August 2022 around 24,448.33 tonnes jeera was exported as against 19,866.18 tonnes in July 2022 showing a rise of 18.74%. In the month of August 2022 around 24,448.33 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 17,460.60 tonnes in August 2021 showing a rise of 40.02%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. Jeera production was seen at 725,651 tn, down 8.8% on year due to lower acreage in Rajasthan and Gujarat, the key producer, according to data from Spices Board India. According to fourth advanced estimates by Gujarat government, jeera production is seen fall by 44.5 per cent to 221500 tonnes in 2021-22 on yoy basis In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 11.3 Rupees to end at 23951.45 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -0.91% to settle at 6546 while prices are up 140 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 23975 and below same could see a test of 23855 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 24170, a move above could see prices testing 24245.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 23855-24245.
* Jeera rose due to moisture conditions as a result of higher rainfall sowing may be delayed by 10 to 15 days current year.
* Current year sowing area likely to increase in Rajasthan and Gujarat growing regions.
* All-India Jeera production is expected to fall in the Marketing year 2022-23 by around 33% to 3 lakh tonnes on y-o-y basis due to lower sowings.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 11.3 Rupees to end at 23951.45 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled up by 0.77% at 30170 as crops remain threatened due to adverse weather conditions and pest attacks. India is likely to produce 34.4 million bales of cotton in the 2022/23 season that started on Oct. 1, up 12% from a year ago after farmers expanded the crop area. India’s cotton output for the season ended September 30, 2022, fell to 307.5 lakh bales (against 360.13 lakh bales estimated at the beginning of the season in October last year. This is the lowest since 2007-08, when the production was 307 lakh bales. WASDE report said world trade is projected to be nearly 1 million bales lower from September, with declines in imports by China, Pakistan, Mexico, Turkey and Vietnam. The agency lowered its U.S. exports forecast by 100,000 bales to 12.5 million bales, while also cutting export estimates for Australia, Brazil, India, Benin, Cote d’Ivoire, Greece and Mexico. "In the 2022/23 world balance sheet this month, consumption is 3.0 million bales lower and ending stocks are 3.1 million bales higher," the USDA said. USDA said its estimates for 2022/23 U.S. cotton crop ending stocks are 100,000 bales higher from a year earlier, with production nearly unchanged at 13.8 million bales. In Gujarat, new cotton arrival increased, and daily arrival reached 6,000 bales of 170 kg. Ginning mills have started buying seed cotton with the advent of the auspicious festival of Navratri. However, spinning mills are cautious as they expect a downward trend in cotton prices during peak arrival. In spot market, Cotton dropped by -210 Rupees to end at 32980 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 2.14% to settle at 2144 while prices are up 230 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 29890 and below same could see a test of 29610 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 30360, a move above could see prices testing 30550.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 29610-30550.
* Cotton gained as crops remain threatened due to adverse weather conditions and pest attacks in major growing regions.
* India’s cotton output seen rising 12% on bigger crop area
* USDA projected higher year-end stocks and a decline in exports amid a slowdown in consumption.
* In spot market, Cotton dropped  by -210 Rupees to end at 32980 Rupees.

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