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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 1.92% at 51160 s the dollar index weakened below the 112 mark, a level not seen in more than a week, as easing Treasury yields and a general risk appetite spooked investor away from the heaven currency. On top of that, a report from ISM showed that the US manufacturing activity grew at its slowest pace in almost 2-1/2 years in September, underscoring the challenging macro environment while suggesting that tighter financial conditions curbed demand for goods. The Fed raised interest rates by 75 basis points for a third consecutive meeting in September while forecasting rates to peak at 4.6% next year with no cuts until 2024, pushing back any dovish pivot that the markets were hoping for in the near term. The Fed's No. 2 official added her full endorsement of the U.S. central bank's higher-for-longer game plan for interest rates to curb inflation. UK government led by Liz Truss backed off quickly from its highest-income tax cuts plans after widespread popular criticism and great upheaval in the financial markets. UK Treasury minister Kwasi Kwarteng said the government will back off plans to cut the highest-income bracket taxes valued at 45%. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 2.6% to settle at 17987 while prices are up 966 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 50564 and below same could see a test of 49968 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 51478, a move above could see prices testing 51796.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 49968-51796.
* Gold rose as the dollar index weakened below the 112 mark, as easing Treasury yields and a general risk appetite spooked investor away from dollar.
* A report from ISM showed that the US manufacturing activity grew at its slowest pace in almost 2-1/2 years in September
* The Fed's No. 2 official added her full endorsement of the U.S. central bank's higher-for-longer game plan for interest rates to curb inflation.

Silver

Silver yesterday settled up by 7.13% at 60911 lifted by a dip in the dollar and U.S. bond yields. Boosting safe-haven demand for metals, U.S. manufacturing activity grew at its slowest pace in nearly 2-1/2 years in September. A slowing rally in the safe-haven currency has afforded gold some respite, with prices staging a mini-recovery since sliding to their lowest since April 2020 on Sept. 28. The dollar index fell after the British government reversed plans to cut the highest rate of income tax that helped to spark a rebellion in her party and turmoil in financial markets. The U.K. government has decided to abandon its plan to scrap the 45 percent tax rate, which was announced just 10 days before, after coming under severe criticism for such a relaxation for the high earners at the time of rising living costs. Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard warned that the risk of additional inflationary shocks cannot be ruled out and that monetary policy will need to be restrictive for some time. U.S. consumer spending increased more than expected in August, but aggressive interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve as it battles stubbornly high inflation are slowing demand, which could limit an anticipated rebound in economic growth in the third quarter. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -25.63% to settle at 12417 while prices are up 4053 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 57133 and below same could see a test of 53355 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 62836, a move above could see prices testing 64761.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 53355-64761.
* Silver prices climbed lifted by a dip in the dollar and U.S. bond yields.
* Silver surges over 7% to highest since mid-August
* Fed’s Brainard warned that the risk of additional inflationary shocks cannot be ruled out and that monetary policy will need to be restrictive for some time.

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 4.25% at 6817 amid increasing speculation that OPEC+ was considering cutting production of up to 1 million barrels per day at a meeting to shore up prices. This move will mark the cartel's second straight monthly cut after reducing output by 100,000 bpd in August to deal with macroeconomic headwinds. Oil prices recorded their fourth consecutive monthly decline in September as aggressive monetary tightening by major central economies stoked fears about a global economic slowdown and weaker energy demand. OPEC+ will consider an oil output cut of more than a million barrels per day (bpd) next week, OPEC sources said, in what would be the biggest move yet since the COVID-19 pandemic to address oil market weakness. The meeting will take place on Oct. 5 against the backdrop of falling oil prices and months of severe market volatility which prompted top OPEC+ producer, Saudi Arabia, to say the group could cut production. China has set the size of its latest batch of oil products export quotas for 2022 at about 15 million tonnes, a shift in fuel export policy as Beijing seeks ways to boost trade. OPEC+ missed its production targets by nearly 3 million bpd in July, as sanctions on some members and low investment by others stymied its ability to raise output. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -37.93% to settle at 4941 while prices are up 278 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6668 and below same could see a test of 6518 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6946, a move above could see prices testing 7074.

Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 6518-7074.
* Crude oil rose amid increasing speculation that OPEC+ was considering cutting production of up to 1 million barrels per day
* OPEC+ to consider oil cut of over than 1 mln bpd – sources
* China sets oil products export quotas at about 15 mln T -sources

Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -5.81% at 528.3 pressured by a combination of record levels of domestic output and fading weather-driven demand as the weather shifted colder. Natural gas production in the US likely rose by roughly 4% from a year earlier in the first eight months of 2022, reaching a record level of 101 Bcf/d in late September. On top of that, US natural gas use has already been reduced for months by the ongoing outage at the Freeport LNG export plant in Texas, leaving more gas for US utilities to inject into stockpiles for next winter. Meanwhile, natural gas prices in the US hit their highest summer levels since 2008, after a series of heatwaves across the US boosted the need for cooling at a time of increased demand for US LNG exports amid concerns of European shortages. Russia's Gazprom said that gas had stopped leaking from three ruptured Nord Stream gas lines under the Baltic, and that it might be possible to resume pumping through the remaining single line. In a statement, it said the pressure in the three lines had stabilised and it was working to reduce environmental risks. Europe launched investigations after major leaks were discovered in the two Russian Nord Stream gas pipelines, each consisting of a pair of lines. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 63.01% to settle at 9883 while prices are down -32.6 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 512.5 and below same could see a test of 496.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 550.5, a move above could see prices testing 572.6.

Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 496.6-572.6.
* Natural gas dropped pressured by a combination of record levels of domestic output and fading weather-driven demand as the weather shifted colder
* Natural gas production in the US likely rose by roughly 4% from a year earlier in the first eight months of 2022
* Gazprom: Nord Stream leaks stop, gas supply could resume on single line
 

Copper

Copper yesterday settled up by 0.45% at 647.85 as the US dollar eased from its soaring rally and buyers in top consumer China took advantage of lower prices to refill stocks. Federal Reserve officials have continued in the past week to beat the drum for an aggressive campaign to lower the highest levels of inflation seen in the United States in 40 years. With U.S. data signalling stubborn inflation, traders expect more aggressive rate hikes that could hurt global economic growth and demand for metals. The copper spot premium in top consumer China could stay elevated in the next few months, as demand for the metal has improved on the back of government stimulus. The spot premium for refined copper was at 605 yuan a tonne, up from 50 yuan a tonne at the end of last year. Earlier this month, it hit 825 yuan, the highest since November 2021. Copper output in Chile, the world's largest producer of the metal, fell 9.4% year-on-year to 422,888 tonnes in August, the country's statistics agency INE said. Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 17.4 % from last Friday, the exchange said. China's bonded warehouse copper inventories were at their lowest on record of 81,800 tonnes. ShFE copper stocks were down 78% since March, while COMEX copper inventories dropped to their lowest since July 2021. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 3.41% to settle at 5242 while prices are up 2.9 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 642.6 and below same could see a test of 637.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 651.3, a move above could see prices testing 654.7.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 637.3-654.7.
* Copper gains as the US dollar eased from its soaring rally and buyers in top consumer China took advantage of lower prices to refill stocks.
* China's spot copper premium to stay elevated as demand improves
* China's bonded warehouse copper inventories were at their lowest on record of 81,800 tonnes.

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -1.07% at 268.35 as pressure seen as Asia's factory output mostly weakened in September as slowing demand in China and advanced economies added to the pain from persistent cost pressures, surveys showed, clouding the region's economic recovery prospects. Manufacturing activity shrank in Taiwan and Malaysia, and grew at a slower pace in September compared with August in Japan and Vietnam, as rising raw material costs and the darkening global outlook weighed on corporate sentiment. The surveys came after China's factory and services activity data on Friday pointed to further cooling in the world's second-largest economy as strict COVID lockdowns disrupted production and dampened sales. Mitsui Mining and Smelting Co, plans to produce 110,800 tonnes of refined zinc in the second half of the 2022/23 financial year, up 0.2% year on year. The global zinc market moved to a deficit of 72,800 tonnes in July from a surplus of 34,600 tonnes a month earlier, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. Previously, the ILZSG had reported a deficit of 1,400 tonnes in June. During the first seven months of 2022, ILZSG data showed a surplus of 83,000 tonnes versus a deficit of 23,000 tonnes in the same period of 2021. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 27.95% to settle at 2106 while prices are down -2.9 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 265.8 and below same could see a test of 263.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 272.4, a move above could see prices testing 276.5.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 263.3-276.5.
* Zinc prices dropped as pressure seen as Asia's factory output mostly weakened in September as slowing demand in China
* Japan Aug PMI marks weakest growth since Jan last year
* Japan's Mitsui Mining expects H2 zinc output to rise 0.2%

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 2.88% at 196.6 as Norwegian aluminium producer Norsk Hydro will cut output at two of its plants. Some Japanese aluminium buyers have agreed with at least two global producers to pay a premium of $99 a tonne over the benchmark price for October-December shipments, down 33% from the previous quarter. The figure is lower than the $148 a tonne paid in the July-September quarter and marks a fourth consecutive quarterly drop. It is also lower than producers' initial offers of $115-$133. Asia's factory output mostly weakened in September as slowing demand in China and advanced economies added to the pain from persistent cost pressures, surveys showed, clouding the region's economic recovery prospects. Manufacturing activity shrank in Taiwan and Malaysia, and grew at a slower pace in September compared with August in Japan and Vietnam, as rising raw material costs and the darkening global outlook weighed on corporate sentiment. Russia's Rusal said that speculation the aluminium producer was planning to offload metal into London Metal Exchange (LME) registered warehouses was misleading. The LME, the world's oldest and largest market for trading industrial metals, said it was considering a consultation on whether Russian aluminium, nickel and copper should continue to be traded and stored in its system. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -11.4% to settle at 4182 while prices are up 5.5 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 192.4 and below same could see a test of 188.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 198.9, a move above could see prices testing 201.2.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 188.2-201.2.
* Aluminum gains as Norsk Hydro cuts aluminium output
* Russia's Rusal denies it plans to deliver aluminium into LME warehouses
* Slowing China, U.S. demand weighing on Asia's economies
 

Mentha

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.24% at 989.7 as Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted. However, upside seen limited amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year we forecast production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. Mentha exports during Apr-July 2022 has dropped by 19.63 percent at 648.49 tonnes as compared to 806.87 tonnes exported during Apr-July 2021. In the month of July 2022 around 155.04 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 113.33 tonnes in June 2022 showing a rise of 36.80. In the month of July 2022 around 155.04 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 283.33 tonnes in July 2021 showing a decline of over 45.28%. In the month of June 2022 around 113.33 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 209.90 tonnes in May 2022 showing a drop of 46%. In Spot market, support seen after IMD issues Yellow Alert in key sowing area ; light-moderate rain to continue till Sept 4 impacting arrival in the mandi. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 3 Rupees to end at 1132.7 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -3.33% to settle at 1423 while prices are down -2.4 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 985.8 and below same could see a test of 982 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 992.6, a move above could see prices testing 995.6.

Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 982-995.6.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 3 Rupees to end at 1132.7 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil dropped as Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted.
* However, upside seen limited amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic.
* In the month of July 2022 around 155.04 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 113.33 tonnes in June 2022 showing a rise of 36.80.

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 1.58% at 6954 on some low level buying after pressure seen as sowing activities has almost completed in major growing states across India and Crop size is expected to be on par. The Product Advisory Committee (PAC) on turmeric has rejected calls for banning futures trade in the commodity, claiming that it has not found any unusual movement in its price. As per Andhra Pradesh agricultural department, sowing activity completed around 7,958 hectares as compared to last year same period 7,764 hectares. Sufficient stocks and good sowing reports kept turmeric prices under pressure. Turmeric exports during Apr-July 2022 has rose by 17.72 percent at 62,245.73 tonnes as compared to 52,875.44 tonnes exported during Apr-July 2021. In the month of July 2022 around 12,810.36 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 18,532.00 tonnes in June 2022 showing a drop of 30.87%. In the month of July 2022 around 12,810.36 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 12,826.38 tonnes in July 2021 showing a decrease of 0.12%. In the month of June 2022 around 17,532.00 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 13,206 tonnes in June 2021 showing an increase of 40.33%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7103.55 Rupees gained 26.55 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -9.85% to settle at 9515 while prices are up 108 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 6840 and below same could see a test of 6726 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7040, a move above could see prices testing 7126.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 6726-7126.
* Turmeric gained on some low level buying after pressure seen as sowing activities has almost completed and Crop size is expected to be on par.
* In the ongoing season, no major quality concerns were observed in the crop arrived in the Marathwada region.
* In the month of July 2022 around 12,810.36 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 18,532.00 tonnes in June 2022 showing a drop of 30.87%.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7103.55 Rupees gained 26.55 Rupees.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled down by -2.64% at 23935 on profit booking after prices rose as supply was observed to be less as farmers and stockists were holding stocks in expectations of higher prices in coming months. Arrivals also observed to be less during the month. Mandi arrivals of Jeera, at all-India level decreased by 10% as compared with previous month supported by decrease in arrivals in Rajasthan as well as in Gujarat. Jeera exports during Apr-July 2022 has dropped by 37.28 percent at 67,057.16 tonnes as compared to 1,06 ,929.72 tonnes exported during Apr-July 2021. In the month of July 2022 around 19,866.18 tonnes jeera was exported as against 21,587.63 tonnes in June 2022 showing a drop of 7.97%. In the month of July 2022 around 19,866.18 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 24,167.64 tonnes in June 2021 showing a decrease of 17.80%. In the month of June 2022 around 21,587.63 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 30,989.86 tonnes in June 2021 showing a decrease of 30.34%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. Jeera production was seen at 725,651 tn, down 8.8% on year due to lower acreage in Rajasthan and Gujarat, the key producer, according to data from Spices Board India. According to fourth advanced estimates by Gujarat government, jeera production is seen fall by 44.5 per cent to 221500 tonnes in 2021-22 on yoy basis In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -127.85 Rupees to end at 24330.65 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -6.08% to settle at 6306 while prices are down -650 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 23565 and below same could see a test of 23200 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 24510, a move above could see prices testing 25090.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 23200-25090.
* Jeera dropped on profit booking after prices rose as supply was observed to be less as farmers and stockists were holding stocks
* Mandi arrivals of Jeera, at all-India level decreased by 10% as compared with previous month
* All-India Jeera production is expected to fall in the Marketing year 2022-23 by around 33% to 3 lakh tonnes on y-o-y basis due to lower sowings.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -127.85 Rupees to end at 24330.65 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled up by 1.45% at 31500 as crops remain threatened due to adverse weather conditions and pest attacks in major growing regions. Cotton output is expected to rebound from last years’ experience of unseasonal rain affecting the crop. Production this year is seen at 341.9 lakh bales (170 kg) against 312.03 lakh bales last year. Pakistan’s cotton production has shrunk 19% to 2.19 million bales till September 15, 2022 in the current season mainly due to the devastation caused by heavy rainfall and flash floods nationwide. In Gujarat, new cotton arrival increased, and daily arrival reached 6,000 bales of 170 kg. Ginning mills have started buying seed cotton with the advent of the auspicious festival of Navratri. However, spinning mills are cautious as they expect a downward trend in cotton prices during peak arrival. In its monthly supply-demand report, the 2022/23 U.S. cotton projections include higher beginning stocks, production, exports and ending stocks this month, the USDA's report said. Additionally, the 2022/23 world cotton projections include higher production and ending stocks relative to last month, and lower consumption. In recent time, the heavy rainfalls and pest attacks are affecting the cotton crop. In the northern states of Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan cotton crop has been affected due to pink bollworm infestation. In spot market, Cotton dropped by -250 Rupees to end at 33150 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -5.29% to settle at 895 while prices are up 450 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 30990 and below same could see a test of 30470 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 31890, a move above could see prices testing 32270.

Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 30470-32270.
* Cotton prices gained as crops remain threatened due to adverse weather conditions and pest attacks in major growing regions.
* In Gujarat, new cotton arrival increased, and daily arrival reached 6,000 bales of 170 kg.
* Spinning mills are cautious as they expect a downward trend in cotton prices during peak arrival.
* In spot market, Cotton dropped  by -250 Rupees to end at 33150 Rupees.
 

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