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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -1.06% at 49385 following news that some Russian military units started returning to bases, easing fears of an imminent Russian invasion of Ukraine. Earlier US secretary of state Antony Blinken ordered the closing of the US embassy in Kyiv and urged Americans to leave Ukraine, citing a rapid buildup of Russian troops near the border. Market participants kept a tab on the U.S. Federal Reserve's rate hike plans, with officials continuing to spar over how aggressively to begin upcoming rate increases at their March meeting. Physical gold demand in India was subdued as consumers postponed purchases due to higher domestic prices during the wedding season, while Singapore saw an uptick in activity. Wedding season buying has moderated, but it could pick up in the coming weeks as many states have started easing restrictions. China's gold consumption boomed during the week-long Spring Festival holiday, up 13 percent year on year, according to data from the China Gold Association. Gold ornaments and bars were among the best-selling products during the holiday, a traditional peak season for gold consumption. The country's gold consumption totaled 1,120.9 tonnes last year, an increase of 36.53 percent from a year ago, or up 11.78 percent compared to that of 2019, the association said. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.61% to settled at 11040 while prices down -531 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 48969 and below same could see a test of 48552 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 50064, a move above could see prices testing 50742.
Trading Ideas:
Gold trading range for the day is 49098-49920.
Gold prices steadied as bullion's appeal as hedge against inflation remained intact ahead of the release of the U.S. Federal Reserve minutes.
Retail sales increase 3.8% in January
December retail sales revised to show steeper decline

Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -1.94% at 62989 as investors moved back again to riskier assets on news of easing Russia-Ukraine tensions. There is a certain relief in the Ukraine-Russian crisis as the two sides seem willing to continue their diplomatic efforts to avoid a military action. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said the West is open to dialogue about Russia's security concerns, but will impose sanctions if it invades Ukraine. A Russian invasion of Ukraine remains highly likely, British foreign secretary Liz Truss has warned. Also, investors jitter tightening prospects from major central banks around the world, especially from the Fed. Investors were also reacting to comments from St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard reiterating support for a faster removal of policy accommodation also weighed on the currency. "I do think we need to front-load more of our planned removal of accommodation than we would have previously," Bullard told. In economic releases, U.S. PPI for January and New York Fed's empire manufacturing survey for February are set to be released in the New York session. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 4.51% to settled at 7885 while prices down -1244 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 62142 and below same could see a test of 61296 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 64217, a move above could see prices testing 65446.
Trading Ideas:
Silver trading range for the day is 62500-63860.
Silver steadied amid easing Russia-Ukraine tensions and U.S. rate-hike bets.
U.S. retail sales rebounded sharply in January amid a surge in purchases of motor vehicles and other goods
Two European Central Bank officials made the case for ending the ECB's bond-buying scheme.


Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -3.05% at 6891 after Russia said some of its military units were returning to their bases after exercises near Ukraine, a move that appeared to de-escalate tension between Moscow and the West. An upward revision in historical oil demand by the International Energy Agency in its monthly report points to a tighter global market than the West's energy watchdog had previously estimated. "Our balances are now more in line with observed market fundamentals, which underpin the view of traders. We believe the tighter balance for 2021 and 2022 is already reflected in the price of oil and the forward curve," the IEA told. The IEA revised up its baseline estimate of global demand by nearly 800,000 barrels per day (bpd), just under 1% of the 100 million bpd global oil market, after reassessing the petrochemicals demand in China and Saudi Arabia back to 2007. Both countries consumed more of the light oil, known as natural gas liquids, that is produced in association with gas. The IEA said the revision helped explain the historical difference between observed and implied inventory changes. Russia's oil export duty is set to rise to $58.3 per tonne on March 1 from $47.7 in February, the finance ministry said, tracking the global oil prices. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -37.76% to settled at 6311 while prices down -217 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6746 and below same could see a test of 6602 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7112, a move above could see prices testing 7334.
Trading Ideas:
Crude oil trading range for the day is 6794-7258.
Crude oil rose as investors weighed conflicting statements on the possible withdrawal of some Russian troops from around Ukraine amid tight global supplies.
OPEC President: Oil supply is now not enough, oil companies didn't invest enough
Global oil inventories are exceptionally tight


Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 1.85% at 319.9 on forecasts for much colder weather and higher heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. The price increase came despite the continued slow return of U.S. production from cold weather-related reductions over the past month, and an 8% drop in European gas futures as some Russian troops return to base, easing tensions with Ukraine. Data provider Refinitiv said average output in the U.S. Lower 48 states fell from a record 97.3 bcfd in December to 94.0 bcfd in January and 92.5 bcfd so far in February as cold weather froze wells in several producing regions. On a daily basis, however, output soared to 95.2 bcfd on Feb. 11, its highest since Jan. 1. Output has been rising almost daily since it dropped to 86.3 bcfd during a winter storm on Feb. 4, its lowest since February 2021. Even though the weather is forecast to be colder than previously expected, it is still on track to be less cold next week than this week with the coming of spring-like weather in some areas. Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would drop from 122.8 bcfd this week to 118.8 bcfd next week. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -19.66% to settled at 3797 while prices up 5.8 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 313.1 and below same could see a test of 306.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 330.6, a move above could see prices testing 341.2.
Trading Ideas:
Natural gas trading range for the day is 316.1-362.9.
Natural gas jumped on forecasts of much colder weather and higher heating demand through early March than previously expected.
Average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states fell from a record 97.3 bcfd in December to 94.0 bcfd in January and 92.7 bcfd so far in February
U.S. Henry Hub natgas price forecasts, 2022 to ease to 2 – year low

 

Copper

Copper yesterday settled flat at 769.6 after Russia returned some troops to base after exercises near Ukraine, easing fears about a potential invasion and boosting financial markets. A Peruvian community said it would not block the key mining road used by MMG's Las Bambas copper mine, which should allow the firm to resume normal operations. Las Bambas, a massive Chinese-owned mine that supplies 2% of global copper, was operating at a reduced capacity last week and faced the possibility of suspending all operations by Feb. 20 due to a road blockade. China will take steps to stabilise the industrial sector and step up financing support for small firms, the cabinet said according to state media reports. New measures will include more tax breaks and medium- and long-term loans for small firms, the cabinet was quoted as saying. China will continue to stabilise commodity prices, the cabinet added. With physical buying in China expected to start picking up in the next few weeks as the economy returns to normal after the Lunar New Year holidays, visible copper stocks are likely to remain at multi-year lows in the near term. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) injected CNY 300 billion of one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) into the financial system, while keeping the interest rate unchanged at 2.85 percent. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.06% to settled at 3351 while prices down -0.5 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 765.9 and below same could see a test of 762 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 773.4, a move above could see prices testing 777.
Trading Ideas:
Copper trading range for the day is 762.5-779.3.
Copper settled flat recovering from losses boosted by a softer dollar, low inventories and supply disruptions.
The latest data showed stocks held in LME-approved warehouses declined to 70,125 tonnes, the lowest since November 2005.
China's factory inflation hits 6 – month low on government curbs


Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -0.37% at 298.85 after Russia-Ukraine tensions eased but remained supported as domestic zinc concentrate supply was still tight, and the profits were further squeezed amid falling revenue from by-products. The energy issues in the Europe remained, and concerns over the supply side still existed. China’s central bank stepped up support for its slowing economy by pumping in cash via policy loans for a second straight month. China's refined zinc production from 51 smelters stood at 444,000 tonnes in January, down by 12,000 tonnes from December and down 8.2% year-on-year, attributing the drop to holidays as well as the Beijing Winter Olympics. February zinc output is expected to slip to some 430,000 tonnes as holidays continue, while there could be disruptions from the pandemic situation in some areas, it said. The increase in the domestic refined zinc output was less than expected in January. Causes of the output increment: Yunnan Wenshan Zinc & Indium resumed the production after maintenance, bringing major increments. Some smelters in Shaanxi increased their production, but the output was lower than expected. Some smelters in Gansu resumed normal production. The domestic refined zinc output is expected to drop 64,600 mt on the month to 453,000 mt in February, down 18,200 mt or 3.87% on the year. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -11.08% to settled at 1805 while prices down -1.1 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 297.4 and below same could see a test of 295.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 300.7, a move above could see prices testing 302.5.
Trading Ideas:

Zinc trading range for the day is 294.2-302.4.
Zinc dropped as the issue between Russia and Ukraine delivered no clear signs of future developments.
The production of mines in Inner Mongolia was interrupted, reducing zinc output.
Some smelters said that it was difficult to source raw materials recently, hence the zinc output fell short.


Nickel

Nickel yesterday settled down by -0.2% at 1776.3 after Russia denied it wants to attack Ukraine, raising hopes the two neighboring nations will avoid a full-blow conflict. LME nickel inventory kept falling and the backwardation of SHFE nickel contracts indicated tight nickel supply. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) injected CNY 300 billion of one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) into the financial system, while keeping the interest rate unchanged at 2.85 percent. The CNY 300 billion (USD 47.19 billion) injection exceeds the CNY 200 billion in such loans maturing this week. The central bank said the move aims to maintain the reasonable and sufficient liquidity of the banking system. PBOC also injected CNY 10 billion of seven-day reverse repos into the banking system, against CNY 20 billion in such loans maturing in the same day. In January, the PBOC unexpectedly cut the one-year MLF rate 10 basis points to 2.85% from 2.95% previously, alongside a 10 basis-point cut in the seven-day reverse repurchase agreement rate. Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd said it will triple its capital expenditure over the next three years to boost its output capacity of nickel and cathode materials used in batteries. The Japanese miner and smelter plans to spend 494 billion yen ($4.3 billion) in capital expenditure, including investment and lending, in the next three years, up from 164 billion yen spent last three years. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 5.37% to settled at 2316 while prices down -3.5 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1753.7 and below same could see a test of 1731 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1797, a move above could see prices testing 1817.6.
Trading Ideas:
Nickel trading range for the day is 1762.5-1799.9.
Nickel gains after Moscow announced a partial pullback of troops from Ukraine's borders, even though the West was sceptical.
In January 2022, China produced 12,000 mt of refined nickel, down 20.4% MoM, and up 7.94% YoY.
CITI says sees further upside for nickel prices heading into Q2 2022 with new 0-3 month target of $26k/t


Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.81% at 257 as the COVID-19 pandemic prevention and control team in Baise issued the Notice that the control measures of “no entry and no exit” will be lifted. The orderly lifting of community control in Baise and the normal transportation will improve raw material transportation of local aluminium smelters and alumina refineries, which will guarantee the local operating capacity of aluminium and alumina. The US warned that Russia might invade Ukraine before the end of the Beijing Olympics in a week, which would trigger severe sanctions on Russian firms, such as major global producer of aluminum Rusal. The imminent risk of sanctions and supply disruptions triggered a rush to aluminum stocks at LME warehouses, which currently sit at roughly 50% of March 2021 levels. The premium on LME cash aluminium over the three-month contract rose to $51.25 a tonne by Monday's close for its highest since July 2018, indicating tightening nearby supplies. It retreated to $28 on Tuesday. On the supply side, domestic operating aluminium capacity was lower than in the same period last year, while the production and logistics of aluminium and alumina has been hindered in Baise city, Guangxi province. On the demand side, aluminium social inventories stood at 994,000 mt, up 45,000 mt on a weekly basis. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -13.63% to settled at 2041 while prices down -2.1 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 255.1 and below same could see a test of 253 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 259.4, a move above could see prices testing 261.6.
Trading Ideas:
Aluminium trading range for the day is 254.8-262.8.
Aluminium rose as tensions eased over Ukraine and focus shifted to an energy crunch causing smelter shutdowns.
The risk of supply disruptions triggered a rush to aluminum stocks at LME warehouses, which currently sit at roughly 50% of March 2021 levels.
Baise city in the aluminium producing region of Guangxi in China lifted lockdowns imposed last week


Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.2% at 961.9 on short covering after prices dropped as sentiments dropped among the trader with the third wave of corona virus is spreading five times faster. There is an explosive situation of infection in seven states of the country. Due to the rapid spread of Omicron, this curiosity arises in the mind whether there will be a lock down in the country. Overall 2022 Q1 prices are expected to see good support as the Indian pharma industry has shown a double digit growth of around 15% led by growth of Covid-19 products in the last one year as against a single digit growth of 3% shown last year, according to Indian pharmaceutical market research company Pharmasofttech AWACS Pvt. Ltd in its latest report. Also as per the latest news going viral in market is that Mandi Tax has been exempted for exports and the orders have been sent to all Mandi Sectt offices district wise, while trader are waiting for complete information on same. Due to lackluster price move since last 2 year with poor export performance this year's sowing can see much impact resulting surge in prices. Also the FMCG makers also expect that a sudden increase in COVID cases and some restrictions imposed by local authorities in some states would again impact the demand for out of home' channels products, which was recovering from the last few months, though demand for home consumption and immunity products is going to gain for few weeks. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -16.6 Rupees to end at 1095.5 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.6% to settled at 911 while prices up 1.9 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 958 and below same could see a test of 954.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 965.8, a move above could see prices testing 969.7.
Trading Ideas:
Mentha oil trading range for the day is 951-964.4.
In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -2.3 Rupees to end at 1093.2 Rupees per 360 kgs.
Mentha oil prices dropped as sentiments dropped with the third wave of corona virus is spreading faster.
Overall 2022 Q1 prices are expected to see good support as the Indian pharma industry has shown a double digit growth of around 15%.
Due to lackluster price move since last 2 year with poor export performance this year's sowing can see much impact resulting surge in prices.


Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -1.54% at 9734 as the arrival of the new crop has started in the markets of Telangana and Maharashtra. In the first 7 months (April-October) of the financial year 2021-22, exports declined by 23% to 89,850 tonnes over the previous year, but higher by 6.5% over the 5-year average. For the past three years, traders were offering lower price for turmeric due to lack of demand. Turmeric crop was damaged in Maharashtra, Nizamabad in Telangana and Kadapa in Andhra Pradesh due to rains and cyclones. The farmers, who incurred losses during this period due to low price, are hoping to get good price this year, so that they could clear their dues to some extent. The market sentiment is buoyant mainly since the ending stocks are expected to be 17-18 lakh bags (50 kg each) this year against 25 lakh bags last year. Spices Board data showed turmeric production this year being projected at 11.01 lakh tonnes against 11.78 lakh tonnes last year, mainly on the output being affected in Telangana, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Assam and Haryana. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 9227.8 Rupees dropped -33.3 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.69% to settled at 11485 while prices down -152 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 9608 and below same could see a test of 9482 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 9894, a move above could see prices testing 10054.
Trading Ideas:
Turmeric trading range for the day is 9660-9932.
Turmeric gained as turmeric crop was damaged in Maharashtra, Nizamabad in Telangana and Kadapa in Andhra Pradesh due to rains and cyclones.
The arrival of the new crop has started in the markets of Telangana and Maharashtra.
In the first 7 months (April-October) of the financial year 2021-22, exports declined by 23% to 89,850 tonnes over the previous year.
In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 9231.6 Rupees gained 3.8 Rupees.


Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled down by -1.45% at 21055 as export demand will still under pressure due to tariff cost and ahead of arrival despite the news that China export started again. There were reports of decline in sowing area and improving domestic demand. In 2021-22, the area under cumin in Gujarat is only 3.07 lakh hectares as against 4.69 lakh hectares in the same period last year and production is expected to decline by 41% to 2.37 lakh tonnes as compared to last year's 4 lakh tonnes as per second advance estimates. In Rajasthan too, there has been a decline of about 30% in the area. According to government data, cumin exports declined by 24% year-on-year to 1.74 lakh tonnes in April-December from 2.30 lakh tonnes in the previous year. The export of cumin seeds declined by 20% year-on-year to 1.61 lakh tonnes in April-November, from 2.02 lakh tonnes in the previous year. There is a possibility of damage to the cumin crop due to rain and cloudy sky. The production in Syria had fallen by roughly 25-30 percent in 2021, versus the previous year because of political instability. The cropped area has fallen due to a shift towards other crops like cotton, soybean and mustard, which offered lucrative returns last year. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -21.2 Rupees to end at 20420 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 3.55% to settled at 11277 while prices down -310 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 20890 and below same could see a test of 20725 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 21325, a move above could see prices testing 21595.
Trading Ideas:
Jeera trading range for the day is 20670-21440.
Jeera dropped as export demand will still under pressure due to tariff cost and ahead of arrival despite the news that China export started again.
In 2021-22, the area under cumin in Gujarat is only 3.07 lakh hectares as against 4.69 lakh hectares in the same period last year.
In Rajasthan too, there has been a decline of about 30% in the area.
In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 9.4 Rupees to end at 20429.4 Rupees per 100 kg.


Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled up by 0.42% at 38060 amid low cotton yield this season due to excessive rain and pink bollworm attack has resulted in the crop selling at over 60 per cent higher than the minimum support price (MSP). There were reports U.S. cotton plantings are expected to climb amid strong foreign demand, higher input costs for farmers and prolonged drought in Texas, the crop’s top growing state. U.S. farmers are projected to sow 12 million acres for the season beginning Aug. 1, up about 7.3% from the previous year, according to the National Cotton Council’s planting-intentions survey showed. Global cotton consumption is expected to rise 2.8% this year, according to data from the United States Department of Agriculture. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) raised the estimate for U.S. stocks at the end of its 2021/22 crop year and projected a decline in the country's exports in its monthly supply-demand report. In its February World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, the USDA raised U.S. ending stocks estimates by 300,000 bales to 3.50 million bales, while U.S. production estimates were unchanged at 17.62 million bales. "The U.S. export forecast is lowered by 250,000 bales to 14.75 million based on lagging shipments due to logistical issues," the USDA said. In spot market, Cotton dropped by -200 Rupees to end at 37920 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.7% to settled at 5918 while prices up 160 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 37830 and below same could see a test of 37600 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 38300, a move above could see prices testing 38540.
Trading Ideas:
Cotton trading range for the day is 37010-38510.
Cotton dropped as U.S. cotton plantings are expected to climb amid strong foreign demand, higher input costs for farmers and prolonged drought in Texas
However downside seen limited amid low cotton yield this season due to excessive rain and pink bollworm attack
Global cotton consumption is expected to rise 2.8% this year
In spot market, Cotton dropped  by -90 Rupees to end at 37900 Rupees.

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