Gold trading range for the day is 48548-50226 - Kedia Advisory
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Gold
Gold yesterday settled up by 0.82% at 49337 as investors sought the safe-haven asset following a surge in speculative trading in stocks by retail investors. Stock prices took a beating as investor sentiment was jolted by a huge increase in speculative trading from retail investors organized over online forums, such as Reddit. In U.S. economic news, a report from the Commerce Department showed personal income climbed by 0.6% in December after tumbling by a downwardly revised 1.3% in November. India's gold consumption is expected to rebound in 2021 after falling to its lowest in 26 years last year as pent-up demand and higher economic growth are seen boosting sales, the World Gold Council (WGC) said. Higher purchases by the world's second-biggest bullion consumer could support gold prices , which hit a record high last year, although that could increase India's trade deficit and weigh on the ailing rupee. Russia's gold exports in 2020 jumped to 320 tonnes (10.3 million troy ounces) from 124 tonnes in the absence of demand from the central bank, the state-owned Russian Export Centre said. The central bank, which used to be the largest buyer of gold produced in Russia, suspended purchases for its reserves on April 1, when it held 73.9 million troy ounces of gold. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 7.02% to settled at 12315 while prices up 401 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 48943 and below same could see a test of 48548 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 49782, a move above could see prices testing 50226.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 48548-50226.
* Gold moved higher, as investors sought the safe-haven asset following a surge in speculative trading in stocks by retail investors.
* The Commerce Department showed personal income climbed by 0.6% in December after tumbling by a downwardly revised 1.3% in November.
* India's gold demand to rebound in 2021 as economy expands – WGC
Silver
Silver yesterday settled up by 3.12% at 69706 after calls appeared on Reddit to buy silver mining stocks and iShares Silver Trust ETF backed by physical silver bars, in a GameStop-style squeeze. Silver jumped as an ongoing retail versus hedge fund faceoff and doubts over European vaccine supply hurt global stocks, but a resilient dollar took away some of bullion's allure. In U.S. economic news, a report from the Commerce Department showed personal income climbed by 0.6% in December after tumbling by a downwardly revised 1.3% in November. The report also said personal spending dipped by 0.2% in December after falling by a downwardly revised 0.7% a month earlier. The University of Michigan's report showed consumer sentiment deteriorated by slightly more than initially estimated in the month of January. The report said the consumer sentiment index for January was downwardly revised to 79.0 from the preliminary reading of 79.2. A report released by the National Association of Realtors showed pending home sales in the U.S. fell by more than expected in the month of December. NAR said its pending home sales index slipped by 0.3 percent to 125.5 in December after tumbling by 2.5 percent to 125.9 in November. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 7.44% to settled at 13350 while prices up 2111 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 68276 and below same could see a test of 66846 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 71213, a move above could see prices testing 72720.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 66846-72720.
* Silver soared after calls appeared on Reddit to buy silver mining stocks and iShares Silver Trust ETF backed by physical silver bars
* Silver jumped after some traders moved to cover short positions on rumours about a GameStop-style squeeze driven by retail investors.
* The report showed personal spending dipped by 0.2% in December after falling by a downwardly revised 0.7% a month earlier.
Crude oil
Crude oil yesterday settled down by -0.18% at 3820 amid risks of slowing fuel demand due to stalled vaccine rollouts and contagious new coronavirus strains. Saudi Arabia is set to cut output by 1 million barrels per day (bpd) in February and March, and compliance with output curbs by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, together called OPEC+, has improved in January. The Saudi cut effectively means OPEC+ supply cuts will rise from 7.2 million bpd in January to 8.125 million bpd in February. Japan's crude oil imports fell 19.0 percent in December from a year earlier to 2.61 million barrels per day (12.88 million kilolitres), the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) said. Japan's domestic oil product sales last month fell 4.3 percent from a year earlier to 3.1 mbpd, the data showed. (1 kilolitre is equal to 6.2898 barrels) Gasoline sales dropped 2.4 percent to 866,914 bpd, while kerosene sales up 7.3 percent from a year earlier to 507,361 bpd, the data showed. Asia's crude oil imports are off to a roaring start in the New Year, as China once again ramps up purchases and the region's other major buyers show signs of demand recovering despite the ongoing coronavirus pandemic. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -13.44% to settled at 1855 while prices down -7 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 3784 and below same could see a test of 3749 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 3871, a move above could see prices testing 3923.
Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 3749-3923.
* Crude oil prices dropped amid risks of slowing fuel demand due to stalled vaccine rollouts and contagious new coronavirus strains.
* Saudi Arabia is set to cut output by 1 mbpd in February and March, and compliance with output curbs by the OPEC+, has improved in January.
* Japan's crude oil imports fell 19.0 percent in December from a year earlier to 2.61 million barrels per day
Nat.Gas
Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -1.14% at 191.5 on forecasts for milder weather next week despite a colder outlook for mid February. In the spot market, meanwhile, cold weather boosted next-day gas prices in New York City to their highest since January 2019 and gas in New England and power at the PJM Western Hub (from western Pennsylvania to Washington DC) and in New England to their highest since December. Data provider Refinitiv said output in the lower 48 U.S. states averaged 91.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in January. Traders said that was down from December's eight-month high of 91.5 bcfd due to the freezing of some wells. Output hit an all-time monthly high of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019. Refinitiv projected average gas demand, including exports, would slip from 129.1 bcfd this week to 125.3 bcfd next week as the weather turns milder before soaring to 135.9 bcfd in two weeks with an expected drop in temperatures. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants has averaged 10.4 bcfd so far in January. Traders said that was down from December's 10.7 bcfd monthly record because flows to Cheniere Energy Inc's Sabine Pass plant in Louisiana and Freeport LNG's plant in Texas declined last week due to a combination of fog and pipeline maintenance. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -8.9% to settled at 6922 while prices down -2.2 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 188.7 and below same could see a test of 185.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 196.3, a move above could see prices testing 201.1.
Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 185.9-201.1.
* Natural gas fell on forecasts for milder weather next week despite a colder outlook for mid February.
* That decline came despite a colder weather outlook for mid-February.
* The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities pulled just 128 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage.
Copper
Copper yesterday settled down by -0.7% at 596.4 as the recovery pace in the fields of consumption, real estate and manufacturing was uneven after data showed GDP growth of the US slowed down to 4% in the fourth quarter of last year. Eye on Copper as stocks in warehouses certified by the LME are at their lowest since September at 76,350 tonnes. Stocks in warehouses registered with the Shanghai Futures Exchange are at their lowest since 2011 while Comex inventories are also slipping. The state-run Chilean Copper Commission (Cochilco) said that it had raised its projection for the price of copper for this year to $3.30 per pound amid progress in vaccination campaigns against COVID-19 as well as good prospects for the Chinese economy. Output in key producer countries such as Peru cratered over the second quarter of 2020 as lockdowns and quarantine measures caused many mines drastically to reduce operations. Recovery has been patchy. Peruvian mines had just about returned to normal run-rates by October, but output in Chile, the world's largest copper producer, started sliding in the third quarter after a robust first half of the year. The global refined copper market showed a 155,000-tonne deficit in September compared with a 72,000-tonne deficit in August, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said in its latest monthly bulletin. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.08% to settled at 3757 while prices down -4.2 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 592.1 and below same could see a test of 587.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 602.3, a move above could see prices testing 608.2.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 587.8-608.2.
* Copper dropped as the recovery was uneven after data showed GDP growth of the US slowed down to 4% in the fourth quarter of last year.
* Copper as stocks in warehouses certified by the LME are at their lowest since September at 76,350 tonnes.
* Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 1.0 percent from last Friday, the exchange said
Zinc
Zinc yesterday settled up by 0.34% at 205.9 after data showed that social inventories of refined zinc ingots across Shanghai, Tianjin, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong and Hebei decreased 3,500 mt in the week ended January 29 to 138,200 mt. The stocks fell 8,400 mt from Monday January 25. Zinc inventories in LME warehouses were last at 293,800 tonnes, down just 700 tonnes from the previous session where stockpiles hit their highest since June 2017 at 294,500 tonnes. The global refined zinc market is expected to be in surplus of 463,000 tonnes in 2021, the International Lead and Zinc Study Group said last year. Zinc inventories in LME warehouses surged to 235,025 tonnes, their highest since September 2018, while ShFE stockpiles of the metal rose to 43,240 tonnes, the highest since Dec. 11, 2020. Cash zinc on the LME has been trading at a discount to the three-month contract since June 2020, indicating abundant nearby supplies. The global zinc market surplus increased to 52,900 tonnes in October from a revised 38,900 tonnes a month earlier, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. During the first 10 months of the year, the global surplus was 480,000 tonnes compared to a deficit of 216,000 tonnes in the same period last year. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -15.52% to settled at 1753 while prices up 0.7 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 203.7 and below same could see a test of 201.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 208.4, a move above could see prices testing 210.8.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 201.4-210.8.
* Zinc prices recovered after data showed that social inventories of refined zinc ingots decreased 3,500 mt to 138,200 mt.
* The global refined zinc market is expected to be in surplus of 463,000 tonnes in 2021, the International Lead and Zinc Study Group said last year.
* Zinc inventories in LME warehouses surged to 235,025 tonnes, their highest since September 2018, while ShFE stockpiles of the metal rose to 43,240 tonnes
Nickel
Nickel yesterday settled down by -0.85% at 1286.7 hit by uncertainties about the outcome of a $1.9 trillion U.S. stimulus package proposed by new President Joe Biden, which is expected to boost demand for metals. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its growth forecast for the global economy this year. US President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion pandemic relief proposal faces hurdles as Republicans voiced concerns over the cost and lobbied for a smaller plan targeting vaccine distribution. Mounting coronavirus cases and caution ahead of the US Federal Reserve's policy meeting this week has dulled appetite for risk, lending support to the dollar. Data showed U.S. consumer confidence rose moderately in January amid lingering concerns about the COVID-19 pandemic. The Fed meeting is coming to an end, and the market expects that the Fed will keep the current interest rate unchanged. Dove expectations and the worry that the new round of stimulus bill in the US will be delayed will put some pressure on futures. According to customs data, in December 2020, China's nickel ore imports totalled 3.17 million mt (wmt and dmt mixed), a decrease of 11.2% month on month and 26.6% year on year. Nickel ore imports from the Philippines stood at 2.48 million mt (customs data denotes both dry and wet mt), a decrease of 16.6% month on month and a year-on-year increase of 60.72%. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -10.37% to settled at 1539 while prices down -11 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1272.4 and below same could see a test of 1258 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1305.1, a move above could see prices testing 1323.4.
Trading Ideas:
* Nickel trading range for the day is 1258-1323.4.
* Nickel prices dropped hit by uncertainties about the outcome of a $1.9 trillion U.S. stimulus package proposed by new President Joe Biden.
* Data showed U.S. consumer confidence rose moderately in January amid lingering concerns about the COVID-19 pandemic.
* The IMF raised its growth forecast for the global economy this year.
Aluminium
Aluminium yesterday settled up by 0.56% at 162.25 as global debt likely reached 98% of economic output at the end of 2020 as governments poured in nearly $14 trillion in fiscal support to battle the coronavirus pandemic, the International Monetary Fund said, urging that fiscal support stay in place until recovery is firmly underway. LME cash aluminium traded at a $4-a-tonne discount from the three-month contract, flipping from three days in the premium zone, indicating that nearby supply tightness has eased. China's aluminium imports in December rose 40.5% from the previous month, customs data showed, snapping three months of declines and extending 2020's position as a record year. The world's biggest aluminium producer, usually has little need for overseas supply but a rapid demand recovery after the coronavirus outbreak saw Shanghai prices surge above London, opening up an arbitrage for cheaper imports. The arb closed in the final quarter, but December arrivals of unwrought aluminium and aluminium products were still the highest since September at 265,569 tonnes, the General Administration of Customs data showed. Imports – which include both primary aluminium and unwrought alloy – surpassed the previous annual record, set in 2009, in just 11 months of 2020, with China turning net importer in July and August for the first time in over a decade. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.48% to settled at 704 while prices up 0.9 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 161 and below same could see a test of 159.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 163.5, a move above could see prices testing 164.7.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 159.7-164.7.
* Aluminium prices recovered from lows after IMF says fiscal support needed until recovery takes hold
* China's aluminium imports in December rose 40.5% from the previous month, customs data showed
* Global primary aluminium output rose in December to 5.67 million tonnes, up 4.22% year on year, data from IAI showed.
Mentha oil
Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.13% at 979.2 on level buying after prices dropped due to demand from cosmetics and toiletries sector in India. The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market. The market has been faced with the lack of migrant labor, supply chain disruptions, shutdown of manufacturing activities, to name a few. Support also seen on the expectation that India’s fragrance industry which had been slow, now slowly gaining the positive momentum post the COVID unlock down. Headed towards a new decade, the fragrance industry has received a much needed boost with the acceptance of trendy dhoop sticks and dhoop cones which has seen an increased 20% demand day by day. The global aroma chemicals market is likely to record a steady CAGR of about 4% during the assessment period of 2020-2030. Growing demand for aroma chemicals in the food & beverage and fragrance industry will underpin the growth of the market. Strict regulations in relation to artificial flavours are complimenting to the expansion of natural aroma chemicals in the food sector. Out of India's total mentha oil exports, nearly 55% goes to China while 16% goes to the US and around 5% goes to Singapore. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -1.9 Rupees to end at 1101.5 Rupees per 360 kgs. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.37% to settled at 72 while prices up 1.3 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 974.7 and below same could see a test of 970.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 984.4, a move above could see prices testing 989.5.
Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 970.1-989.5.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -1.9 Rupees to end at 1101.5 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil prices dropped due to demand from cosmetics and toiletries sector in India.
* The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market.
* The global aroma chemicals market is likely to record a steady CAGR of about 4% during the assessment period of 2020-2030.
Soyabean
Soyabean yesterday settled up by 0.28% at 4644 supported by signs of strong demand from both the domestic processing sector as well as the export market. Support also seen after weekly soybean export sales totaled 1.234 million tonnes, topping market forecasts that ranged from 400,000 to 1.2 million tonnes. BV Mehta, executive director of the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEA), said that poultry consumes about 5 million tonnes of soya every year and despite the bird flu, soya prices would not come down drastically. “Soya constitutes about 30 per cent of poultry feed every month. If the domestic demand dips, we are looking for additional export. We don’t want to increase export by reducing supply to the domestic market, but if local demand fails to pick up we will enhance export,” said Mehta. China's soybean imports hit a record high in 2020, customs data showed, after crushers ramped up purchases amid improved margins and healthy demand from the country's rapidly recovering pig sector. China, the world's top soybean buyer, bought 100.33 million tonnes of the oilseed in 2020, up 13% from 88.51 million tonnes in 2019, according to the General Administration of Customs, the highest annual imports on record. December's imports came in at 7.524 million tonnes, down 27% from 9.54 million tonnes a year ago. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 32 Rupees to 4697 Rupees per 100 kgs. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -8.99% to settled at 131065 while prices up 13 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 4603 and below same could see a test of 4562 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4670, a move above could see prices testing 4696.
Trading Ideas:
* Soyabean trading range for the day is 4562-4696.
* Soyabean gained supported by signs of strong demand from both the domestic processing sector as well as the export market.
* Support also seen after weekly soybean export sales totaled 1.234 million tonnes, topping market forecasts.
* China's soybean imports hit a record high in 2020, customs data showed, after crushers ramped up purchases amid improved margins and healthy demand
* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 32 Rupees to 4697 Rupees per 100 kgs.
Ref.Soyaoil
Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled up by 0.35% at 1105.5 amid supply concerns due to poor weather conditions in Latin America and strong demand from China. The sowing of oilseed crops has increased to 81.80 lakh hectares in the current Rabi whereas till this time last year, it was sown only in 77.79 lakh hectares. NOPA members, which handle about 95% of all soybeans processed in the United States, were estimated to have crushed a near-record 185.175 million bushels of soybeans last month. Soyoil supplies among NOPA members at the end of December were seen rising for a third straight month to 1.712 billion pounds, compared with 1.558 billion pounds at the end of November and 1.757 billion pounds at the end of December 2019. Under World Trade Organization WTO rules, each country has been allowed to levy import-export duty on oil and oil. But there is no equality in this, as a result, the exporting countries of edible oils keep reducing the export duty according to their convenience and requirement, which causes damage to countries like India. India has been empowered to impose a maximum import duty of up to 45 percent on soybean oil and up to 300 percent on palm oil under WTO rules. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1105 Rupees per 10 kgs. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 4.5% to settled at 37365 while prices up 3.9 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1095 and below same could see a test of 1086 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1117, a move above could see prices testing 1130.
Trading Ideas:
* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1086-1130.
* Ref soyoil prices gained amid supply concerns due to poor weather conditions in Latin America and strong demand from China.
* The sowing of oilseed crops has increased to 81.80 lakh hectares in the current Rabi whereas till this time last year, it was sown only in 77.79 lakh hectares.
* NOPA members, which handle about 95% of all soybeans processed in US, were estimated to have crushed a near-record 185.175 mln bushels
* At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1105 Rupees per 10 kgs.
Crude palm Oil
Crude palm Oil yesterday settled up by 0.94% at 969.3 after Indonesia increases palm oil export tax, levy for Feb. Indonesia set a higher reference price for crude palm oil for February at $1,026.78 per tonne. Prices also gained amid boosted by supply concerns. Disappointing Malaysia export figures are still lingering in the market, offsetting worries of supply disruption due to heavy rain and floods. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for January 1 – 25 fell 36.1% compared to December 1 – 25 period, cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services said. Cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance said exports dropped 34.3% over the same period. Indonesia set the February reference price for crude palm oil (CPO) at $839.69 per tonne, lower compared to $951.86 per tonne in January, allowing for lower export taxes and levies next month, a Trade Ministry regulation showed. Based on the reference price, the export tax for CPO will be set at $18 per tonne and the levy at $150 per tonne, compared to $74 tax and $225 levy in January. Malaysia's commodities ministry forecast crude palm oil production at 19.7 million tonnes in 2021, rising from 19.14 million tonnes last year. "This is due to the expected expansion of mature oil palm areas as well as the effects of dry weather affecting the production of fresh palm fruit bunches, and subsequently crude palm oil production," Minister Mohd Khairuddin Aman Razali said in a statement. In spot market, Crude palm oil gained by 13.8 Rupees to end at 955.3 Rupees. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.08% to settled at 7225 while prices up 9 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 960.6 and below same could see a test of 951.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 977.6, a move above could see prices testing 985.8.
Trading Ideas:
* CPO trading range for the day is 951.8-985.8.
* Crude palm oil ended with gains after Indonesia increases palm oil export tax, levy for Feb.
* Indonesia set a higher reference price for crude palm oil for February at $1,026.78 per tonne.
* Malaysia's commodities ministry forecast crude palm oil production at 19.7 million tonnes in 2021, rising from 19.14 million tonnes last year.
* In spot market, Crude palm oil gained by 13.8 Rupees to end at 955.3 Rupees.
Mustard Seed
Mustard Seed yesterday settled up by 0.92% at 5604 as support seen amid crop damage in north due to cold waves. In recent sessions prices seen under pressure in recent session as year on year, the planted area of mustard has increased by 6.7 percent approximately. The latest Government data shows that the planted area in Mustard or RM seed has so far reached 73.25 Lakh hectares as against 68.64 Lakh hectares during last year’s corresponding period. The government aims to take the area under mustard to around 80 lakh hectares this year, under the Oilseeds Mission program. The mustard crop continues providing better prices to farmers than the MSP till now. India’s 2020-21 mustard crop may touch 100 lakh ton-level due to higher sowing and conducive weather. The sowing of oilseed crops has increased to 81.80 lakh hectares in the current Rabi whereas till this time last year, it was sown only in 77.79 lakh hectares. At the national level, the total production area of rabi crops increased to 620.71 lakh hectare on January 1, 2021, compared to 603.15 lakh hectare to 17.56 lakh hectare or 2.91 percent and the general average area from 620.27 lakh hectare to 44 thousand hectare in the same period last year. The latest data from the Union Ministry of Agriculture shows that this time the production of oilseeds crops was 75.93 lakh hectare as compared to the last season. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 52.15 Rupees to end at 6213.65 Rupees per 100 kg. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.74% to settled at 14300 while prices up 51 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 5538 and below same could see a test of 5472 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5650, a move above could see prices testing 5696.
Trading Ideas:
* Rmseed trading range for the day is 5472-5696.
* Mustard seed prices gained as support seen amid crop damage in north due to cold waves.
# The latest Government data shows that the planted area in Mustard has so far reached 73.25 Lakh hectares
* India’s 2020-21 mustard crop may touch 100 lakh ton-level due to higher sowing and conducive weather. Sowing
* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 52.15 Rupees to end at 6213.65 Rupees per 100 kg.
Turmeric
Turmeric yesterday settled up by 0.46% at 6554 after production is expected to decline in Maharashtra due to inclement weather in areas such as Nanded, Hingoli and Basmat Nagar. As a result, prices have started climbing there. The price of kadhi turmeric has increased from Rs 5500/5600 per quintal to Rs 6600/6800 per quintal in these lines. There before in Nizamabad the light quality turmeric with moisture was selling at the rate of Rs 3500/4000 per quintal, now it has reached Rs 5000 per quintal. In the top producing states of Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Maharashtra and Orissa, the arrival of new goods of turmeric was delayed by 15-20 days even though it did not have a large backlog stock. This has led to an upward revision in prices, whereas for a long time, it was a trend of softening or stability. During the month of December, due to heavy rains in the producing areas and flooding in the fields, turmeric crop was damaged and production is likely to decline. Limited stock of turmeric is being reported with producers and stockists. With the Telangana producer demanding a minimum support price of turmeric from the government to fund Rs 15,000 per quintal, has also gone on strike in January. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6309.1 Rupees gained 3.55 Rupees. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.58% to settled at 8680 while prices up 30 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 6500 and below same could see a test of 6444 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6616, a move above could see prices testing 6676.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 6444-6676.
* Turmeric prices gained after production is expected to decline in Maharashtra due to inclement weather.
* In the top producing states the arrival of new goods of turmeric was delayed by 15-20 days
* With the Telangana producer demanding a MSP from the government Rs 15,000 per quintal, has also gone on strike in January.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6309.1 Rupees gained 3.55 Rupees.
Jeera
Jeera yesterday settled down by -1.07% at 13435 on profit booking after prices gained in recent sessions after update there has been a reduction of 15 to 20% in cumin seeds in Gujarat and Rajasthan. How weather is expected for the cumin market for the next 2 to 3 weeks is important. If the weather deteriorates, then in February-March, a phase of boom can be seen. Demand for Ramadan will start in February. If the arrival of cumin at that time will not be in accordance with the perception, then the cumin may show a boom. In the international market of cumin, every buyer countries are currently waiting for the new cumin seeds. The international community is getting reports of sowing of new cumin seeds in India as much as last year and the climate is also favorable for cumin. Currently, Syrian cumin is priced at $ 2900 to 3000 per ton in the international market, Afghanistan cumin is being priced at $ 2300 to 2350 per ton. In this origin, there is no significant trade due to no large stock of cumin. The price per ton of Indian cumin is running from $ 1815 to 1850. The price of Indian cumin was reduced to $ 1750 at one stage, but after that the price was increased due to the uncertainty of export promotion scheme. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -40.6 Rupees to end at 13105.55 Rupees per 100 kg. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6.46% to settled at 1347 while prices down -145 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 13325 and below same could see a test of 13210 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 13580, a move above could see prices testing 13720.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 13210-13720.
* Jeera dropped on rofit booking after prices gained in recent sessions after update of crop reduction of 15 to 20%
* Consumption of cumin has increased in the current year and export demand is also large and cumin is unlikely to slow down from the current price
* Currently, Syrian cumin is priced at $ 2900 to 3000 per ton in the international market, Afghanistan cumin is being priced at $ 2300 to 2350 per ton.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -40.6 Rupees to end at 13105.55 Rupees per 100 kg.
Cotton
Cotton yesterday settled down by -0.66% at 20950 as cotton procurement by the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) has almost come to a stop, top officials at the CCI said. Cotton procurement under the minimum support price (MSP) programme has reduced with prices going up. Cotton arrivals are staggered with around 210 lakh bales having already arrived into the market with another 140-150 lakh bales remaining with farmers. The CCI has procured 85 lakh bales and may procure another 5-10 lakh bales. USDA projecting lower opening stocks, production and ending stocks this season (October 2020-September 2021), raising hopes of the commodity exports from India. Going by current trends, India’s cotton exports can touch 65 lakh bales (170 kg each) and it can help reduce the country’s huge carryover stocks from last season. However, Cotton Association of India (CAI) President Atul Ganatra said export demand is currently slow due to novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) lockdown in Europe and few more countries. His association has pegged exports at 54 lakh bales this season. The Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) has permitted those who buy cotton from it through e-auctions, to lock in the cotton prices. In spot market, Cotton gained by 20 Rupees to end at 20850 Rupees. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.26% to settled at 6597 while prices down -140 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 20900 and below same could see a test of 20850 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 21030, a move above could see prices testing 21110.
Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 20850-21110.
* Cotton dropped as cotton procurement by the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) has almost come to a stop.
* Cotton procurement under the minimum support price (MSP) programme has reduced with prices going up.
* Cotton arrivals are staggered with around 210 lakh bales having already arrived into the market with another 140-150 lakh bales remaining with farmers.
* In spot market, Cotton gained by 20 Rupees to end at 20850 Rupees.
Chana
Chana yesterday settled up by 0.27% at 4500 as Nafed’s unstable chana releasing strategy continues to affect market directly at a time when area is up by 5 % and the new crop is hardly one and a half month away. Pulses sowing area jumped by nearly 109% to 8.55 lh. Chana acreage has soared by 115% to 8.03 lh. Nafed continued to fix reserve price and changed it frequently from Rs 5600 to Rs. 5100, again Rs. 5100 to Rs. 4875. Apart from it has offered 5 to 10 % discount over previous MSP on particular centers. As offtake from central pool is lower, Nafed may decrease price further to vacate storage space for new procurement. It would not allow chana cash market to go up beyond a certain level. Delhi chana is being traded at Rs4550-4650. Demand is weak. Weather condition in Jan –Feb remains crucial. The latest data shows that the total area of pulses has increased by 7% to 141 lakh hectares. More sowing is done in Maharashtra, Odisha and Jharkhand as compared to last year. Gram cultivation has increased by about 10%. NAFED to sell Gram PSS Rabi-2020 stock from all the States at or above base prices of Rs. 5100 per quintal in the month of December 2020, it offers an initial quantity of 1.5 LMT of Gram, for the month of December 2020. In Delhi spot market, chana dropped by -35.4 Rupees to end at 4473.95 Rupees per 100 kgs. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 3.05% to settled at 33780 while prices up 12 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 4474 and below same could see a test of 4448 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4521, a move above could see prices testing 4542.
Trading Ideas:
* Chana trading range for the day is 4448-4542.
* Chana gained as Nafed’s unstable chana releasing strategy continues to affect market directly at a time when area is up by 5 %
* Pulses sowing area jumped by nearly 109% to 8.55 lh.
* Nafed continued to fix reserve price and changed it frequently from Rs 5600 to Rs. 5100, again Rs. 5100 to Rs. 4875.
* In Delhi spot market, chana dropped by -35.4 Rupees to end at 4473.95 Rupees per 100 kgs.
