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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.11% at 48594 as the dollar weakened after the U.S. Federal Reserve decided to accelerate the withdrawal of its pandemic-era stimulus in a widely expected move. The Fed said it would end its pandemic-era bond purchases in March, paving the way for three interest rate hikes by the end of 2022. Supporting the case for higher interest rates, data showed U.S. weekly jobless claims remained at levels consistent with tightening labour market conditions. Other major central banks also turned more hawkish this week, with the Bank of England becoming the first G7 economy to hike interest rates after the pandemic. Physical gold demand in India showed a modest improvement this week as some buyers rushed to stores anticipating a further rise in domestic prices, while customers in other Asian hubs started bullion shopping for Christmas. Dealers offered discounts of up to $2 an ounce over official domestic prices, unchanged from last week. In China, premiums of $6-$9 an ounce were charged over benchmark spot gold prices, compared with last week's $7-$10 premiums. Singapore saw premiums of $1.50-$1.80 per ounce versus $1.40-$1.80 the week before. The government has lowered the base import price of gold by $3 to $572 per 10 gm, according to a notification by the Central Board of Excise and Customs. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.74% to settled at 8868 while prices down -52 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 48475 and below same could see a test of 48355 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 48750, a move above could see prices testing 48905.

Trading Ideas:
# Gold trading range for the day is 48355-48905.
# Gold ended the week with gainsas the dollar weakened after the Fed decided to accelerate the withdrawal of its pandemic-era stimulus
# The Fed said it would end its pandemic-era bond purchases in March, paving the way for three interest rate hikes by the end of 2022.
# India: Trade ministry proposes cut in basic import duty on gold to 4% from 7.5%


Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -0.02% at 62137 on profit booking after prices rose thanks to strong safe-haven demand due to concerns about accelerating inflation in most parts of the world. Demand for safe haven assets increased strongly, due to warnings by global banks about the rising inflation levels, in addition to taking strict monetary policy measures to counter this danger. The Federal Reserve said that it will move quickly in cutting its bond purchases by next March, and hinted three rate hikes by the end of 2022. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell expressed more flexibility to raise interest rates sooner, and said that the economy no longer needs increasing support, especially after prices and wages grew, and the rapid improvement in the labor market. The Bank of England surprised the markets after it decided to raise interest rates by 15 basis points to 0.25%, in the first time since the beginning of the pandemic. The European Central Bank said it would reduce bond purchases in the coming period, but ruled out raising European interest rates in the next year. International Monetary Fund spokesman Gerry Rice said the Federal Reserve's decision to ramp up the tapering of bond purchases is a well-calibrated, proportionate response to rising wage and price pressures, but increases risks for emerging markets. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.17% to settled at 11166 while prices down -14 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 61889 and below same could see a test of 61641 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 62416, a move above could see prices testing 62695.

Trading Ideas:
# Silver trading range for the day is 61641-62695.
# Silver pared gains on profit booking after prices rose thanks to strong safe-haven demand due to concerns about accelerating inflation in most parts of the world.
# Demand for safe haven assets increased strongly, due to warnings by global banks about the rising inflation levels, in addition to taking strict monetary policy
# Fed said that it will move quickly in cutting its bond purchases by next March, and hinted three rate hikes by the end of 2022.

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -2.28% at 5398 as surging cases of the Omicron coronavirus variant raised fears that new curbs may hit fuel demand. In Denmark, South Africa and Britain, the number of new Omicron cases has been doubling every two days. Denmark's Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said her government would propose new restrictions to limit its spread. In the United States, the rapid spread of the Omicron variant has led some companies to pause plans to get workers back into offices. Goldman Sachs expects average global oil demand to hit record levels in the next two years on the back of rising demand for aviation and transport, as well as infrastructure construction. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and allies, together known as OPEC+, have said they could meet ahead of their scheduled Jan. 4 meeting if changes in the demand outlook warrant a review of their plans to add 400,000 barrels per day of supply in January. Exports and transit of oil from Russia are planned at 56.05 million tonnes in the first quarter of 2022 versus 58.3 million tonnes in the fourth quarter of 2021. On a daily basis oil exports and transit from Russia via its oil pipeline monopoly Transneft system will decline by 1.7% in the first quarter of 2022 compared to the fourth quarter of 2021. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 6.15% to settled at 4140 while prices down -126 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 5321 and below same could see a test of 5244 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5482, a move above could see prices testing 5566.

Trading Ideas:
# Crude oil trading range for the day is 5244-5566.
# Crude oil prices dipped as surging cases of the Omicron coronavirus variant raised fears that new curbs may hit fuel demand.
# OPEC+ said they could meet ahead of their scheduled Jan. 4 meeting if changes in the demand outlook warrant a review of their plans
# Goldman Sachs expects oil demand to hit record levels in 2022, 2023


Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -2.72% at 285.8 on record output and forecasts for milder weather through late December than previously expected. Prices decline came despite near record gas prices in Europe and Asia that were over 11 times higher than U.S. prices and should keep demand for U.S. liquefied natural gas exports (LNG) strong for months to come. US dry natural gas production is forecast to hit a new record high in 2022, rising from 95.1 billion cubic feet per day in October 2021 to 97.5 Bcf/d by December 2022, the US Energy Information Administration said in a report. Previously, the monthly record was 97.2 Bcf/d, which was set in November 2019, the EIA said. The forecast takes into account expected output from natural gas-directed drilling activity and natural gas production associated with crude oil production, the agency noted. Data provider Refinitiv said output in the U.S. Lower 48 states has averaged 96.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in December, which would top the monthly record of 96.5 bcfd in November. Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would jump from 109.7 bcfd this week to 120.6 bcfd next week and 123.6 bcfd in two weeks as the weather turns seasonally colder. Those forecasts were higher than Refinitiv's outlook on Thursday. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.74% to settled at 6607 while prices down -8 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 277.6 and below same could see a test of 269.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 292.5, a move above could see prices testing 299.3.

Trading Ideas:
# Natural gas trading range for the day is 269.5-299.3.
# Natural gas fell on record output and forecasts for milder weather through late December than previously expected.
# The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities pulled 88 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage during the week ended Dec. 10.
# US natural gas production to hit new monthly record high in 2022, EIA reports


Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -0.17% at 740.65 after China has revised its 2020 gross domestic product (GDP) growth to 2.2% year on year, down from 2.3% previously. However, downside seen limited a key mine in Peru was forced to shut operation due to protests, raising concerns about the tight supply of the metal. Miner MMG, the wholly-owned subsidiary of Guoxin International Investment announced that it will shut production at its Las Bambas mine in Peru – the world’s second copper miner – from 18 December after it failed to reach an agreement with local Peruvians who blocked the mine’s transport road. World Bureau of Metal Statistics reported that the copper market saw a deficit of 188 kilotonnes from January to October 2021. Miner Freeport-McMoRan Inc has agreed copper treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) for 2022 with Chinese smelters at $65 per tonne and 6.5 cents per lb, two sources with knowledge of the matter said. The 2022 charges are 9.2% higher than this year's benchmark of $59.50 per tonne and 5.95 cents per lb and signal the end of a run of six consecutive drops in the annual TC/RC benchmark since 2015. The copper inventory across major Chinese markets fell 9,000 mt from Monday to 85,800 mt. The inventory in Guangdong only increased slightly by 700 mt, while the inventory in Shanghai and Tianjin decreased. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -8.26% to settled at 3332 while prices down -1.25 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 736.8 and below same could see a test of 733 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 745, a move above could see prices testing 749.4.

Trading Ideas:
# Copper trading range for the day is 733-749.4.
# Copper dropped after China revises 2020 GDP growth down slightly to 2.2% y/y
# Freeport, China smelters agree higher copper treatment charges for 2022
# World Bureau of Metal Statistics reported that the copper market saw a deficit of 188 kilotonnes from January to October 2021.

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -2.15% at 282.4 after Miner Nexa Resources, controlled by Brazilian holding company Votorantim SA, said it had resumed production at its Cerro Lindo zinc mine in Peru after suspending it due to a road blockade protests. The firm said that it expected the mine to get back to full capacity by Dec. 18 after police cleared the blockade by local communities. Mining conflicts are on the rise in Peru, as empowered local communities are ramping up demands under the new administration of leftist President Pedro Castillo. Miner Nyrstar said it would shutter its plant in France due to high power prices, stoking concerns over tightness in supply. Belgium-based Nyrstar will shutter its zinc plant in Auby from the first week of January 2022. The premium of LME cash zinc over the three-month contract rose to $43 a tonne, its highest since Dec. 7, indicating tightening nearby supplies. Overseas zinc ingot output is expected to fall, creating strong fundamentals, coupled with low inventory in the eurozone and the US. In China, the zinc ingot inventory across seven major markets in China stood at 124,200 mt, down 2,300 mt from Monday and 1,100 from last Friday. The inventory in Shanghai bonded zone totalled 19,700 mt, down 5,000 from last Friday. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -21.23% to settled at 1651 while prices down -6.2 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 279.7 and below same could see a test of 277 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 287, a move above could see prices testing 291.6.

Trading Ideas:
# Zinc trading range for the day is 277-291.6.
# Zinc prices dropped after Miner Nexa Resources, said it had resumed production at its Cerro Lindo zinc mine in Peru.
# Miner Nyrstar said it would shutter its plant in France due to high power prices, stoking concerns over tightness in supply.
# In China, the zinc ingot inventory across seven major markets in China stood at 124,200 mt, down 2,300 mt from Monday

Nickel

Nickel yesterday settled up by 0.11% at 1548.1 as the market sentiment warmed amid positive economic readings from the US. The ECB decided to maintain the current interest rate, which is in line with market expectation. While the Bank of England raised the benchmark interest rate by 15 base points. terms of US economic data, the initial jobless claims last week rose slightly from a 52-year low; the industrial output value in November rose significantly; the new housing starts hit an eight-month high; the business activities in early December were still stable though cooled down a little bit, easing the pressures facing manufacturers. The global nickel market saw a small surplus of 5,000 tonnes in October compared with a shortfall of 3,100 tonnes a month earlier, data from the International Nickel Study Group (INSG) showed. During the first 10 months of the year, there was a deficit in the nickel market of 165,500 tonnes compared with a surplus of 88,500 tonnes in the same period last year, Lisbon-based INSG added. The nickel ore inventory at Chinese ports dipped 241,000 wmt from a week earlier to 8.77 million wmt as of December 17. Total Ni content stood at 68,900 mt. The total inventory at seven major ports stood at around 4.07 million wmt, a drop of 201,000 wmt from a week earlier. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 6.32% to settled at 1513 while prices up 1.7 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1542.2 and below same could see a test of 1536.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1555.8, a move above could see prices testing 1563.6.

Trading Ideas:
# Nickel trading range for the day is 1536.4-1563.6.
# Nickel prices steadied as the market sentiment warmed amid positive economic readings from the US.
# Currently, pure nickel inventory was at a comparatively low level, supporting nickel prices
# The global nickel market saw a small surplus of 5,000 tonnes in October compared with a shortfall of 3,100 tonnes a month earlier


Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 0.34% at 220.55 after China's output of raw material alumina slumped last month, highlighting the risk of tight supply due to power shortages. China's output of alumina, which is smelted to make aluminium, fell in November by 4.5% year-on-year to its lowest in 18 months, official data showed. China's aluminium output in November fell slightly from the previous month, official data showed, as an explosion at a smelter in Yunnan and lingering curbs on energy consumption took supply lower. The world's top producer of the metal churned out 3.10 million tonnes of primary aluminium last month, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said, down from 3.132 million tonnes in October and 1.8% lower year-on-year. China aims to lower its carbon output by restricting the electricity consumption and production of power-intensive industries such as alumina refining and aluminium smelting. Investors have refocused on potential shortages of industrial metals after being distracted recently by whether the U.S. Federal Reserve would tackle rising inflation with faster bond tapering and interest rate rises next year. Russian aluminium producer Rusal said it had launched production at its long-stalled Taishet aluminium smelter in Siberia. Hong-Kong listed Rusal, the world's largest aluminium producer outside China, started work on the Taishet project in 2007. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 10.05% to settled at 1884 while prices up 0.75 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 219.4 and below same could see a test of 218.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 221.4, a move above could see prices testing 222.3.

Trading Ideas:
# Aluminium trading range for the day is 218.3-222.3.
# Aluminium prices gains after China's output of raw material alumina slumped last month, highlighting the risk of tight supply due to power shortages.
# China's output of alumina, which is smelted to make aluminium, fell in November by 4.5% year-on-year to its lowest in 18 months
# Russian aluminium producer Rusal said it had launched production at its long-stalled Taishet aluminium smelter in Siberia.

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 1.42% at 982.7 on some short covering as support came after the mentha traders of Uttar Pradesh Udyog Vyapar Mandal, Chandausi Mentha Association, MENT Manufacturing and Export Association and Uttar Pradesh Udyog Vyapar Mandal demonstrated on Goshala Road in protest against the implementation of Mandi Fee. After this, the mentha traders reached the Bahjoi district headquarters and handed over the memorandum addressed to the Chief Minister to the Additional Deputy Collector. Prices got support in last few weeks as due to crop failure and low recovery of oil, availability of Mentha oil will be low and demand from industries are expected to improve ahead of winter season. Speculation are also high that production this year will be lower as compare with last year because of two important factors. Major physical market player expects demand to sluggish for next few week as cash crunch seen in spot market, while expectations are high about demand improvement ahead of winter season starts. China is one of the biggest buyer for Indian Mentha, no much buying inquiry from China as mainland China and Hong Kong markets were shut. Damages due to rain in key area and secondly farmers for the last 2 years where sowing mentha but due to not getting much profit at intervals there had been shift to other crops also. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 18.6 Rupees to end at 1076.5 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.84% to settled at 787 while prices up 13.8 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 971.5 and below same could see a test of 960.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 990.9, a move above could see prices testing 999.

Trading Ideas:
# Mentha oil trading range for the day is 960.2-999.
# In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 18.6 Rupees to end at 1076.5 Rupees per 360 kgs.
# Mentha gained on some short covering as support came after the mentha traders in protest against the implementation of Mandi Fee.
# Prices got support in last few weeks as due to crop failure and low recovery of oil, availability of Mentha oil will be low.
# Further production this year will be lower as compare with last year because of two important factors.


Soyabean

Soyabean yesterday settled down by -1.61% at 6279 as pressure seen after the total soyabean meal export from India stood at 2.19 lt in April-November of 2021-22 as against 6.36 lt in the corresponding period of the previous fiscal. Soyabean crush margins in India are currently squeezed. There is a relatively high price expectation of farmers for soyabean seed. NOPA reported the November soybean crush at 179.462 million bushels, down 2.5% from October and below an average of expectations for 181.640 million bushels. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) trimmed its global supply outlook despite market expectations for an increase. In a monthly report, the USDA projected 2021/22 marketing year U.S. ending stocks at 340 million bushels, unchanged from a month earlier but below the average trade forecast for 352 million. Global ending stocks were seen at 102 million tonnes, below the average trade estimate for 104.13 million. Private exporters reported sales of 130,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2021/2022 marketing year. China's Ag Min lowered 21/22 soybean production to 16.4MMT down from November forecast at 18.65MMT, & -16.3% lower than yr earlier crop of 19.6MMT. Brazil's CONAB projected the country's 2021/22 soybean crop at 142.789 million tonnes, up from the prior estimate for 142.009 million and 137.321 million tonnes in the 2020/21 season. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 15 Rupees to 6468 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.8% to settled at 73245 while prices down -103 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 6214 and below same could see a test of 6148 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6393, a move above could see prices testing 6506.

Trading Ideas:
# Soyabean trading range for the day is 6148-6506.
# Soyabean dropped as the total soyabean meal export from India stood at 2.19 lt in April-November of 2021-22 as against 6.36 lt
# NOPA reported the November soybean crush at 179.462 million bushels, down 2.5% from October
# USDA trimmed its global supply outlook despite market expectations for an increase.
# At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained  15 Rupees to 6468 Rupees per 100 kgs.

Ref.Soyaoil

Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled down by -0.73% at 1168.6 as the overall export of oilmeals came down by 18 per cent in the first eight months of the financial year 2021-22. Data available with the Solvent Extractors’ Association (SEA) of India showed that the country exported 15.96 lakh tonnes (lt) of oilmeals during April-November of 2021-22 as against 19.51 lt in the corresponding period of 2020-21. The country exported 1.62 lt of oilmeals in November 2021 as against 3.32 lt in November 2020, down by 51 per cent. BV Mehta, Executive Director of SEA of India, said that the decline in exports during the first eight months of 2021-22 is mainly due to lesser export of soyabean meal. However downside seen limited amid gains in overseas prices on signs of tightening U.S. vegetable oil supplies and fresh export demand. The government has increased the base import prices of all edible oils by $16-$21 per tn, the Central Board of Excise and Customs said in a notification. On the export front, the U.S. Department of Agriculture of confirmed private sales of 20,000 tonnes of U.S. soyoil to India. Agribusiness consultancy AgRural trimmed its estimate of Brazil's 2021/22 soybean crop to 144.7 million tonnes, from 145.4 million previously At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1194 Rupees per 10 kgs.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 10.5% to settled at 37110 while prices down -8.6 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1162 and below same could see a test of 1155 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1178, a move above could see prices testing 1187.

Trading Ideas:
# Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1155-1187.
# Ref soyoil prices dropped as Oilmeals export down by 18% during Apr-Nov
# Govt raises base import prices of edible oils by $16-$21 per tn
# The U.S. Department of Agriculture of confirmed private sales of 20,000 tonnes of U.S. soyoil to India
# At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1194 Rupees per 10 kgs.


Crude palm Oil

Crude palm Oil yesterday settled down by -0.41% at 1070.8 tracking weakness in Malaysian palm oil as weaker exports in December weighed. Further surging cases of the Omicron coronavirus variant raised fears new curbs may hit fuel demand. Pressure also seen as cargo surveyors reported a larger-than-expected drop in exports during the first half of December. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for Dec. 1-15 fell 13.4% to 789,549 tonnes from the same period in November, cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance said. Indonesia exported 3.21 million tonnes of palm oil, including refined products, in October, up 6.14% on an annual basis, data from the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) showed. Exports to China and European Union markets rose in October, but shipments to India fell, GAPKI said. Meanwhile, the group estimated 2021 total palm oil exports would come in at 34.9 million tonnes, compared to 2020 exports of 34 million tonnes. India's vegetable oil imports in November rose 11% from a year earlier to 1.17 million tonnes. Import of crude palm oil (CPO) came down during November compared with October as rising palm oil prices reduced the discount it had been enjoying in the global market. The country’s palm oil import came down to 4.77 lt in November against 6.26 lt in October. The CIF import price of CPO increased to $1,432 a tonne ($1,369). In spot market, Crude palm oil gained by 1.9 Rupees to end at 1086.4 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.01% to settled at 3807 while prices down -4.4 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 1065.2 and below same could see a test of 1059.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1079.2, a move above could see prices testing 1087.6.

Trading Ideas:
# CPO trading range for the day is 1059.6-1087.6.
# Crude palm oil dropped tracking weakness in Malaysian palm oil as weaker exports in December weighed.
# Further surging cases of the Omicron coronavirus variant raised fears new curbs may hit fuel demand.
# Pressure also seen as cargo surveyors reported a larger-than-expected drop in exports during the first half of December.
# In spot market, Crude palm oil gained  by 1.9 Rupees to end at 1086.4 Rupees.


Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -0.2% at 9162 as pressure seen amid poor demand for old stocks as traders wait for the new season of turmeric. However, downside seen limited due to heavy rainfall, the minimum crop damage has gone to 40% to 50% in producing parts of Maharashtra, Telangana and Andhra. Support also as the demand from exporters is good. Spices Board has set a target of 33 per cent increase in turmeric exports to 183000 tonnes on a year-on-year basis in the financial year 2020-21. At the same time, the government estimates that turmeric production may be 1.11 million tonnes in 2020-21, which was 1.15 million tonnes a year ago. Turmeric all India production for 2022 is estimated at 4.89 lakh MT. Last year’s production was 4.46 lakh MT, up by 9.64% from last year. Exports of spices from India during Apr-Sep declined 8% on year to 780,273 tn, according to data from the Spices Board India. In terms of value, exports rose 3% to 154.6 bln rupees. Exports of jeera during Apr-Sep declined 14% on year to 139,295 tn, from 162,033 tn a year ago. There were also reports of export demand from Europe, Gulf countries and Bangladesh. The areas where turmeric has been sown have received adequate rainfall and are expected to produce well in the next season. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8057.9 Rupees gained 26.65 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 4.47% to settled at 6200 while prices down -18 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 9088 and below same could see a test of 9014 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 9218, a move above could see prices testing 9274.

Trading Ideas:
# Turmeric trading range for the day is 9014-9274.
# Turmeric dropped as pressure seen amid poor demand for old stocks as traders wait for the new season of turmeric.
# However, downside seen limited due to heavy rainfall, the minimum crop damage has gone to 40% to 50% in producing parts.
# At the same time, the government estimates that turmeric production may be 1.11 million tonnes in 2020-21, which was 1.15 million tonnes a year ago.
# In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8057.9 Rupees gained 26.65 Rupees.


Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 0.59% at 16285 as domestic demand is now picking up also the export inquiries to support price. Cumin exports declined by 1.4% year-on-year to 1.39 lakh tonnes in April-September but are expected to improve in the coming months. Further adequate stock with traders and farmers may keeping prices under pressure at higher levels. The area under cumin in Gujarat is only 1.71 lakh hectares as against 3 lakh hectares in the same period last year, while in Rajasthan, cumin was sown in 3.20 lakh hectares. Jeera production in Syria and Turkey was limited due to bad weather, which increases demand for Indian cumin. Exports of spices from India during Apr-Sep declined 8% on year to 780,273 tn, according to data from the Spices Board India. In terms of value, exports rose 3% to 154.6 bln rupees. India exported 77,245 tn of turmeric in Apr-Sep, down 26% on year. During last two months, the prices were higher compared to last year despite sufficient stocks with traders. Sowing can see drop as farmers preferred to have other crop against Jeera. Weather in key sowing area will be crucial in next few months. The export of cumin is increasing continuously and in the coming days there are signs of increasing the export of cumin in a big way. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 86.35 Rupees to end at 16000 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.19% to settled at 9492 while prices up 95 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 16200 and below same could see a test of 16120 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 16385, a move above could see prices testing 16490.

Trading Ideas:
# Jeera trading range for the day is 16120-16490.
# Jeera gained as domestic demand is now picking up also the export inquiries to support price.
# Cumin exports declined by 1.4% year-on-year to 1.39 lakh tonnes in April-September
# The area under cumin in Gujarat is only 1.71 lakh hectares as against 3 lakh hectares in the same period last year
# In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 86.35 Rupees to end at 16000 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled down by -0.22% at 31960 as world cotton production for the 2021/22 season is poised for a full comeback from a disappointing 2020/21 season, led by the United States, the International Cotton Advisory Committee said in its annual report. It forecast 2021/22 output at 25.71 million tonnes, a 6.01% increase from 2020/21. However downside seen limited amid reports heavy rains in November damaged cotton crop over 44,200 ha cotton has been affected in Andhra Pradesh. USDA weekly export sales report showed net sales of 286,400 running bales, down 25% from the previous week but about 5% higher compared with the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily for China. In its monthly balance sheet for November 2021, the CAI has estimated total cotton supply at 154.76 lakh bales of 170 kgs each, which consists of the arrivals of 77.76 lakh bales of 170 kgs each, imports of 2 lakh bales of 170 kgs each during the month of November 2021 and Opening Stock of 75 lakh bales of 170 kgs each at the beginning of the season on 1st October 2021. Further, the CAI has estimated cotton consumption for the months of October and November 2021 at 55.83 lakh bales of 170 kgs each while export shipment of cotton during the months of October and November 2021 is estimated at 7.00 lakh bales of 170 kgs each. In spot market, Cotton gained by 210 Rupees to end at 31940 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -9.14% to settled at 3309 while prices down -70 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 31750 and below same could see a test of 31530 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 32300, a move above could see prices testing 32630.

Trading Ideas:
# Cotton trading range for the day is 31530-32630.
# Cotton dropped as world cotton production for the 2021/22 season is poised for a full comeback from a disappointing 2020/21 season
# CAI pegs November cotton arrivals at 77 lakh bales
# USDA weekly export sales report showed net sales of 286,400 running bales, down 25% from the previous week
# In spot market, Cotton gained  by 210 Rupees to end at 31940 Rupees.

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