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Gold

yesterday settled up by 0.02% at 47926 as prices remained in range weighed down a spike in U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar as investors waited for more clues about the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike timeline from its policy meeting next week. Global investor attention remains fixed on the Fed's Jan. 25-26 meeting after central bank officials signalled they would start raising interest rates in March to curb inflation. The Bank of Japan raised its inflation forecast for the fiscal year beginning in April and said risks to the price outlook were evenly balanced. Federal Reserve policymakers this week signaled they will start raising U.S. interest rates in March to battle inflation that's eroding the value of workers' recent wage gains and putting the policysetters under a political spotlight. In what were among the last public comments from U.S. central bankers before their next rate-setting meeting, Fed Governor Lael Brainard became the latest and most senior U.S. central banker to signal the current era of near-zero interest rates will come to an end after two pandemic-shook years. The Fed "has projected several rate hikes over the course of the year," Brainard told the Senate Banking Committee, which is considering her nomination by U.S. President Joe Biden to become the Fed's vice chair. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6.72% to settled at 5485 while prices up 9 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 47789 and below same could see a test of 47651 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 48056, a move above could see prices testing 48185.

Trading Ideas:
# Gold trading range for the day is 47651-48185.
# Gold prices remained in range weighed down a spike in U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar
# 10-year U.S. Treasury yields hit two-year high
# Bank of Japan raises price forecast, keeps policy steady



Silver

yesterday settled up by 1.81% at 63019 as inflation concerns have contributed to a bigger than expected drop in U.S. consumer sentiment in the month of January, according to preliminary data released by the University of Michigan. The report showed the consumer sentiment index fell to 68.8 in January from 70.6 in December. Two-year yields, crossed 1 percent for the first time since February 2020, reflecting expectations for a Fed policy rate hike as soon as March. The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany jumped 22.6 points from a month earlier to 51.7 in January 2022 and well above market expectations of 32.0. Investors believe that economic growth will pick up in the coming six months, particularly in the consumer-related and export-oriented sectors, as the incidence of COVID-19 cases will fall significantly by early summer. The Bank of Japan kept its monetary policy unchanged, but lifted its inflation forecast reflecting rising energy prices and other items. The board, governed by Haruhiko Kuroda, voted 8-1, to hold the interest rate at -0.1 percent on current accounts that financial institutions maintain at the central bank. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -23.56% to settled at 9512 while prices up 1121 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 61968 and below same could see a test of 60917 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 63774, a move above could see prices testing 64529.

Trading Ideas:
# Silver trading range for the day is 60917-64529.
# Silver prices rose as inflation concerns have contributed to a bigger than expected drop in U.S. consumer sentiment in the month of January
# Two-year yields, crossed 1 percent for the first time since February 2020, reflecting expectations for a Fed policy rate hike as soon as March.
# The Bank of Japan kept its monetary policy unchanged, but lifted its inflation forecast reflecting rising energy prices and other items.



Crude oil

yesterday settled up by 1.06% at 6299 amid mounting concerns over supply constraints as the OPEC+ are gradually relaxing output cuts implemented when demand collapsed in 2020. OPEC+ has done a lot to bring about energy-market stability and other oil producers should follow suit, Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said. OPEC stuck to its forecast for robust growth in world oil demand in 2022 despite the Omicron coronavirus variant and expected interest rate hikes, predicting the oil market would remain well supported through the year. The upbeat view from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries comes as oil prices have reached the highest since 2014. Tight supply has given impetus to the rally, and OPEC's report also showed the group undershot a pledged oil-output rise in December. In a monthly report, OPEC said it expects world oil demand in 2022 to rise by 4.15 million barrels per day (bpd), unchanged from last month. Oil use will surpass the 100 million bpd mark in the third quarter, also in line with last month's forecast. "While the new Omicron variant may have an impact in the first half of 2022, which is dependent on any further lockdown measures and rising hospitalisation levels impacting the workforce, projections for economic growth remain robust," OPEC said in the report. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 32.23% to settled at 8521 while prices up 66 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6261 and below same could see a test of 6223 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6346, a move above could see prices testing 6393.

Trading Ideas:
# Crude oil trading range for the day is 6223-6393.
# Crude oil rose amid mounting concerns over supply constraints as the OPEC+ are gradually relaxing output cuts implemented when demand collapsed in 2020.
# News that Russia was preparing to attack Ukraine if diplomacy failed also supported bullish sentiment
# OPEC Monthly Report: OPEC maintains its full-year forecast for global oil demand growth in 2022.



Nat.Gas

yesterday settled up by 0.69% at 320.4 on forecasts for colder weather and higher heating demand over the next two weeks than previously forecast. In a reminder of last winter's February freeze, traders noted daily gas demand was expected to reach record highs on Friday as frigid weather blankets much of the United States later this week. Speculators last week covered their shorts and boosted their net long futures and options positions on the NYMEX and Intercontinental Exchange by the most in a week since June as the front-month soared 9% in volatile trade, according to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission's Commitments of Traders report. Lingering cold since New Year's Day continued to cause well freeze-offs and other weather-related production declines in several regions, including the Permian in Texas and New Mexico, the Bakken in North Dakota and Appalachia in Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Ohio. Data provider Refinitiv said output in the U.S. Lower 48 states averaged 94.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in January, down from a record 97.6 bcfd in December. With even colder weather coming, Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would jump from 135.6 bcfd this week to 143.2 bcfd next week as homes and businesses crank up their heaters. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -41.58% to settled at 3966 while prices up 2.2 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 315.9 and below same could see a test of 311.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 325.2, a move above could see prices testing 330.

Trading Ideas:
# Natural gas trading range for the day is 311.4-330.
# Natural gas edged up on forecasts for colder weather and higher heating demand over the next two weeks than previously forecast.
# In a reminder of last winter's February freeze, traders noted daily gas demand was expected to reach record highs
# Speculators last week covered their shorts and boosted their net long futures and options positions by the most in a week since June.




Copper

yesterday settled down by -0.4% at 741.25 as the market anticipated a more hawkish tone from the U.S. Federal Reserve in the lead up to monetary tightening in March. The Fed meets next week after fairly aggressive comments from officials about how tough they could be in the fight against inflation. Speculators bet on prices falling, evidenced by a net short position of 12.83% of open interest, this is its highest since May 2020. Copper stocks continued to trend higher, with inventories in LME-registered warehouses climbing by 2,000 tonnes to 94,525 tonnes, the highest in two months. China's copper exports rose to an annual record in 2021, according to customs data, as higher international prices during some months last year encouraged traders to ship metals overseas. Annual shipments last year were at 932,451 tonnes, up from 744,457 in 2020. For the month of December, exports of unwrought copper and copper products stood at 78,512 tonnes, the General Administration of Customs said. That was down 3.9% from 81,735 tonnes in November, but up 13.9% year-on-year. Improving global demand for copper also helped boost shipments. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.94% to settled at 3903 while prices down -2.95 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 738.5 and below same could see a test of 735.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 745.6, a move above could see prices testing 750.

Trading Ideas:
# Copper trading range for the day is 735.8-750.
# Copper prices dropped as the market anticipated a more hawkish tone from the U.S. Federal Reserve in the lead up to monetary tightening in March.
# Copper stocks continued to trend higher, with inventories in LME warehouses climbing by 2,000 tonnes to 94,525 tonnes, the highest in two months.
# China's copper exports hit record high in 2021



Zinc

yesterday settled up by 1.23% at 291.55 as the market sentiment was relatively stable recently loosening monetary policy in China and sustained downside risks faced by the domestic economy. On the macro front, the deputy president of the People’s Bank of China said that the monetary policy toolbox shall be opened up a bit more to keep the total amount stable and to avoid credit collapse. Meanwhile, the director of the Department of Financial Markets said that recent real estate sales, land purchases and financing have gradually returned to normal, with some market analysts turning relatively optimistic about real estate. China's Q4 GDP beats forecasts but momentum cooling China's economy grew 4.0% in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, faster than expected but its weakest expansion in one-and-half years, National Bureau of Statistics data showed. Japan machinery orders rise more than expected, govt welcomes pick-up signs Japan's core machinery orders rose for a second straight month in November, government data showed, a sign that corporate appetite for capital spending remained resilient despite pressure from soaring raw material prices. Total zinc inventories across seven Chinese markets stood at 126,200 mt as of January 17, up 3,100 mt from last Friday January 14, and down 600 mt from last Monday January 10. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 5.87% to settled at 1714 while prices up 3.55 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 288.5 and below same could see a test of 285.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 294.1, a move above could see prices testing 296.6.

Trading Ideas:
# Zinc trading range for the day is 285.4-296.6.
# Zinc rose as the market sentiment was relatively stable recently loosening monetary policy in China
# China's Q4 GDP beats forecasts but momentum cooling China's economy grew 4.0% in the fourth quarter from a year earlier
# Japan machinery orders rise more than expected, govt welcomes pick-up signs Japan's core machinery orders rose for a second straight month in November



Nickel

yesterday settled up by 0.66% at 1655.1 as a supply deficit ate into stockpiles and investors looked ahead to rising demand from electric vehicles. LME nickel inventory kept falling from more than 100,000 mt to a low of 94,000 mt. On-warrant nickel inventories in LME-registered warehouses have fallen to 44,832 tonnes, the lowest since 2019 and down from more than 200,000 tonnes in April. SHFE nickel inventory was also at a historical low. In a sign that supply is tightening, the premium for cash nickel over the three-month contract jumped to $318 per tonne, by far its highest since 2009. Russia's Nornickel, the world's largest producer of refined nickel, said that the state export tax, which Moscow had imposed between August and December of 2021, did not affect the amount of its nickel exports. Russian exporters of nickel, steel, aluminium and copper paid extra export taxes in the last five months of 2021. According to foreign media, Indonesia's Deputy Minister of Maritime and Investment Affairs, Septian Hario Seto, said that the government may start imposing export duties on NPI in 2022. Seto said a 2% export tax, or $300/mt, would be possible if nickel prices were above $15,000/mt, and that the tax would increase in proportion to nickel prices. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.29% to settled at 3059 while prices up 10.9 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1646.2 and below same could see a test of 1637.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1664.2, a move above could see prices testing 1673.3.

Trading Ideas:
# Nickel trading range for the day is 1637.3-1673.3.
# Nickel prices surged as a supply deficit ate into stockpiles and investors looked ahead to rising demand from electric vehicles.
# Russia's Nornickel says 2021 nickel sales were unaffected by export tax
# LME nickel inventory kept falling from more than 100,000 mt to a low of 94,000 mt.



Aluminium

yesterday settled up by 1.1% at 238.9 as the operating aluminium capacity was at a low level though there were some increases in Yunnan and Shanxi. China's annual aluminium output rose 4.8% from the previous year to a record in 2021, official data showed, reaching 38.5 million tonnes despite curbs on energy consumption at factories imposed to meet climate goals last year. Primary aluminium output for December was 3.11 million tonnes, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said, slightly up from 3.10 million tonnes in November and 4% lower year-on-year. China's economy rebounded in 2021 with its best growth in a decade, helped by robust exports, but there are signs that momentum is slowing on weakening consumption and a property downturn, pointing to the need for more policy support. Growth in the fourth quarter hit a one-and-a-half-year low, government data showed shortly after the central bank moved to prop up the economy with a cut to a key lending rate for the first time since early 2020. Japan machinery orders rise more than expected, govt welcomes pick-up signs Japan's core machinery orders rose for a second straight month in November, government data showed, a sign that corporate appetite for capital spending remained resilient despite pressure from soaring raw material prices. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 8.15% to settled at 2388 while prices up 2.6 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 236.8 and below same could see a test of 234.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 240.7, a move above could see prices testing 242.5.

Trading Ideas:
# Aluminium trading range for the day is 234.7-242.5.
# Aluminium rallied as the operating aluminium capacity was at a low level
# China 2021 aluminium output climbs to record despite power curbs
# China tops forecasts with 8.1% growth in 2021 but headwinds loom



Mentha oil

yesterday settled down by -0.77% at 985.9 on account on fresh selling as sentiments dropped among the trader with the third wave of corona virus is spreading five times faster. There is an explosive situation of infection in seven states of the country. Due to the rapid spread of Omicron, this curiosity arises in the mind whether there will be a lock down in the country. Overall 2022 Q1 prices are expected to see good support as the Indian pharma industry has shown a double digit growth of around 15% led by growth of Covid-19 products in the last one year as against a single digit growth of 3% shown last year, according to Indian pharmaceutical market research company Pharmasofttech AWACS Pvt. Ltd in its latest report. Also as per the latest news going viral in market is that Mandi Tax has been exempted for exports and the orders have been sent to all Mandi Sectt offices district wise, while trader are waiting for complete information on same. Due to lackluster price move since last 2 year with poor export performance this year's sowing can see much impact resulting surge in prices. Also the FMCG makers also expect that a sudden increase in COVID cases and some restrictions imposed by local authorities in some states would again impact the demand for out of home' channels products, which was recovering from the last few months, though demand for home consumption and immunity products is going to gain for few weeks. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -1.8 Rupees to end at 1101.1 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.8% to settled at 853 while prices down -7.7 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 976.2 and below same could see a test of 966.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 995.2, a move above could see prices testing 1004.6.

Trading Ideas:
# Mentha oil trading range for the day is 966.6-1004.6.
# In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -1.8 Rupees to end at 1101.1 Rupees per 360 kgs.
# Mentha oil fell on account on fresh selling as sentiments dropped among the trader with the third wave of corona virus is spreading five times faster.
# Overall 2022 Q1 prices are expected to see good support as the Indian pharma industry has shown a double digit growth of around 15%.
# Due to lackluster price move since last 2 year with poor export performance this year's sowing can see much impact resulting surge in prices.



Turmeric

yesterday settled down by -0.79% at 10748 on profit booking prices gained to 11years high amid crop damage due to heavy rains and cyclones this year. Turmeric crop was damaged in Maharashtra, Nizamabad in Telangana and Kadapa in Andhra Pradesh due to rains and cyclones. For the past three years, traders were offering lower price for turmeric due to lack of demand. The farmers, who incurred losses during this period due to low price, are hoping to get good price this year, so that they could clear their dues to some extent. The market sentiment is buoyant mainly since the ending stocks are expected to be 17-18 lakh bags (50 kg each) this year against 25 lakh bags last year. Spices Board data showed turmeric production this year being projected at 11.01 lakh tonnes against 11.78 lakh tonnes last year, mainly on the output being affected in Telangana, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Assam and Haryana. Spices Board data show turmeric exports lower by 26 per cent in volume during the first half of the current fiscal at 77,245 tonnes valued at ₹860.31 crore against 1.04 lakh tonnes valued at ₹903.31 crore during the same period a year ago. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 9522.75 Rupees gained 112.75 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.05% to settled at 9935 while prices down -86 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 10566 and below same could see a test of 10384 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 11036, a move above could see prices testing 11324.

Trading Ideas:
# Turmeric trading range for the day is 10384-11324.
# Turmeric dropped on profit booking prices gained to 11year high amid crop damage due to heavy rains and cyclones this year.
# Turmeric crop was damaged in Maharashtra, Nizamabad in Telangana and Kadapa in Andhra Pradesh due to rains and cyclones.
# The farmers, who incurred losses during this period due to low price, are hoping to get good price this year
# In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 9522.75 Rupees gained 112.75 Rupees.



Jeera

yesterday settled up by 0.88% at 18370 as local and overseas consumption started improving, the market began moving upwards. Rise in export demand, the decline in the 2020-21 production as well as carryover stock estimates kept trade sentiments strong. The production in Syria had fallen by roughly 25-30 percent in 2021, versus the previous year because of political instability. Exports of Indian cumin usually decrease after July-August every year when Turkey and Syria used to supply the global consumers. The estimated jeera production for the crop year 2020-21 may be lower by 30-35% on account of decline in sown area and lower yield (because of adverse weather prevailing) in the major producing states Gujarat and Rajasthan. The cropped area has fallen due to a shift towards other crops like cotton, soybean and mustard, which offered lucrative returns last year. The export of cumin is increasing continuously and in the coming days, the export sales are expected to continue with greater quantity. The carry forward inventory is pegged lower versus last year, as consumption is likely to remain stable while production estimate is revised lower. Considering the production estimate dropping by nearly 30-40 percent over last season, and stable demand situation, there are expectations of prices to touch even 20000 levels this year. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 251.9 Rupees to end at 17494.75 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.44% to settled at 11124 while prices up 160 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 18210 and below same could see a test of 18055 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 18490, a move above could see prices testing 18615.

Trading Ideas:
# Jeera trading range for the day is 18055-18615.
# Jeera prices rallied as local and overseas consumption started improving, the market began moving upwards.
# Rise in export demand, the decline in the 2020-21 production as well as carryover stock estimates kept trade sentiments strong.
# The production in Syria had fallen by roughly 25-30 percent in 2021, versus the previous year because of political instability.
# In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 251.9 Rupees to end at 17494.75 Rupees per 100 kg.



Cotton

yesterday settled up by 0.72% at 36130 as CAI has reduced its cotton crop estimate for the 2021- 22 season by 12.00 lakh bales to 348.13 lakh bales of 170 kgs each from its previous estimate of 360.13 lakh bales of 170 kgs each. The CAI has estimated cotton consumption for the months of October 2021 to December 2021 at 86.25 lakh bales of 170 kgs each (equivalent to 91.64 lakh running bales of 160 kgs each) while the export shipments upto 31st December 2021 are estimated by the CAI at 18.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs each (equivalent to 19.66 lakh running bales of 160 kgs each). The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) lowered U.S. production and ending stocks estimates for the 2021/22 crop year, while a weaker dollar added to the upbeat mood. In its January World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, the USDA projected U.S. production at 17.62 million bales for the 2021/22 crop year, about 660,000 bales lower than the previous month, bringing its ending stock estimate 200,000 bales lower to 3.20 million bales. The USDA also cut its global output estimate by about 610,000 bales to 120.96 million bales, bringing ending stocks forecast to 85.01 million bales from 85.73 million bales last month. In spot market, Cotton gained by 170 Rupees to end at 35700 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -11.05% to settled at 3846 while prices up 260 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 35890 and below same could see a test of 35640 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 36360, a move above could see prices testing 36580.

Trading Ideas:
# Cotton trading range for the day is 35640-36580.
# Cotton gains as CAI pegs down its cotton crop estimate for 2021-22 season to 348.13 lakh bales
# The CAI has estimated cotton consumption for the months of October 2021 to December 2021 at 86.25 lakh bales of 170 kgs each
# Untimely rains during the Northeast Monsoon (October-December) along with pink bollworm infestation led to lower production in North India.
# In spot market, Cotton gained  by 170 Rupees to end at 35700 Rupees.