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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.14% at 48013 propelled by a softer dollar, while hopes a U.S. stimulus package will be passed bolstered the metal's appeal as an inflation hedge. The U.S. Congress is expected to pass a $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief bill, with President Joe Biden saying he had been in touch with Republican leaders who opposed the size of the package. Stimulus prospects were further aided by a budget outline approved by the Democrats last week allowing them to pass the package without Republican support. A report released by the Commerce Department showed the U.S. trade deficit narrowed in the month of December, as the value of exports jumped by more than the value of imports. The Commerce Department said the trade deficit narrowed to $66.6 billion in December from a revised $69.0 billion in November. The narrower deficit came as the value of exports surged up by 3.4 percent to $190.0 billion. India's gold imports in January surged 72% from a year earlier, as a correction in prices from a record high drew retail buyers and jewellers. The world's second-biggest consumer of the gold imported around 62 tonnes of it in January, up from 36.5 tonnes a year ago, the source said. In value terms, January imports surged to $4.04 billion from $1.58 billion a year ago. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.02% to settled at 12066 while prices up 65 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 47766 and below same could see a test of 47518 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 48318, a move above could see prices testing 48622. 

Trading Ideas:            

* Gold trading range for the day is 47518-48622.

* Gold prices gained propelled by a softer dollar, while hopes a U.S. stimulus package will be passed bolstered the metal's appeal as an inflation hedge.

* The U.S. Congress is expected to pass a $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief bill

* Stimulus prospects were further aided by a budget outline approved by the Democrats last week allowing them to pass the package without Republican support.

Silver   

Silver yesterday settled down by -1.1% at 68926 as U.S. consumer prices increase steadily in January. Market participants expect Powell to reaffirm accommodative monetary policy stance to boost the economy. On the stimulus front, U.S. President Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief bill is expected to pass through Congress despite opposition from Republicans over the aid's price tag. U.S. consumer prices rose moderately in January and underlying inflation remained benign as the pandemic continues to be a drag on the labor market and services industry. The Labor Department said its consumer price index increased 0.3% last month after climbing a revised 0.2% in December. In the 12 months through January the CPI rose 1.4% after gaining a revised 1.3% December. Global demand for silver will rise to 1.025 billion ounces in 2021, its highest in eight years, as investors and industry ramp up purchases, the Silver Institute said, predicting that prices would rise. Silver is also used in industries such as electronics and solar panels, and demand will rise as the pandemic is brought under control and the global economy rebounds, the institute said. Industrial demand will rise 9% from 2020 to a four-year high of 510 million ounces, it said. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.05% to settled at 12716 while prices down -770 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 68221 and below same could see a test of 67515 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 69816, a move above could see prices testing 70705.  

Trading Ideas:            

* Silver trading range for the day is 67515-70705.

* Silver prices pared gains as U.S. consumer prices increase steadily in January.

* Market participants expect Powell to reaffirm accommodative monetary policy stance to boost the economy.

* U.S. President Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief bill is expected to pass through Congress despite opposition from Republicans over the aid's price tag.

Crude oil      

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 0.66% at 4285 after industry data showing a fall in U.S. crude oil stocks added to optimism about an expected rise in global fuel demand. U.S. crude oil stocks fell in the most recent week, data from industry group the American Petroleum Institute showed. Crude inventories fell by 3.5 million barrels in the week to Feb. 5 to about 474.1 million barrels, compared expectations for a build of 985,000 barrels. Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub fell by 1.4 million barrels, API said. Refinery crude runs rose by 104,000 barrels per day, API data showed. The government lowered its outlook for U.S. crude oil production in 2021, with expected output set to average 11.02 million bpd for the year, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said. Oil prices have rebounded from the lows touched in 2020 as Saudi Arabia pledged additional oil output cuts, prompting U.S. energy firms to increase drilling activity. The International Monetary Fund expects Russian oil output to recover quickly once a global deal on production cuts tapers off, while also urging investment in the oil sector to keep up current output, the fund said. In its February report, the IMF also said that the full-cost break-even price for Russia is closer to $30 to 40 per barrel. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -14.91% to settled at 3003 while prices up 28 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 4247 and below same could see a test of 4210 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4307, a move above could see prices testing 4330.           

Trading Ideas:            

* Crude oil trading range for the day is 4210-4330.

* Crude oil prices rose after industry data showing a fall in U.S. crude oil stocks added to optimism about an expected rise in global fuel demand.

*  U.S. crude output to decline more than previously forecast in 2021 -EIA

* U.S. crude oil stocks fell in the most recent week, data from industry group the American Petroleum Institute showed

Nat.Gas     

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 3.02% at 211.3 as next week's daily peak demand was still expected to set a new record high and despite forecasts calling for slightly colder weather and higher heating demand this week and next. In the spot market, the arctic freeze moving across the country this week boosted next-day gas at the Waha hub in the Permian shale in Texas rose to its highest since December 2018. Data provider Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 U.S. states has averaged 90.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in February. Traders noted that was down from 91.0 bcfd in January, due in part to the freezing of some wells. Output hit an all-time monthly high of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019. On a daily basis, output was on track to drop from 89.6 bcfd on Tuesday to 88.6 bcfd on Wednesday, the lowest since mid-November, according to preliminary data from Refinitiv that will likely be revised later in the day. With much colder weather on the horizon, Refinitiv projected average gas demand, including exports, would jump from 134.0 bcfd this week to 148.7 bcfd next week. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants has averaged 10.6 bcfd so far in February, up from January's 10.4 bcfd average but just shy of December's 10.7 bcfd record high. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 5.18% to settled at 6860 while prices up 6.2 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 202.9 and below same could see a test of 194.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 216.7, a move above could see prices testing 222.2. 

Trading Ideas:            

*  Natural gas trading range for the day is 194.6-222.2.

*  Natural gas prices gained as next week's daily peak demand was still expected to set a new record high

* Data provider Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 U.S. states has averaged 90.2 bcfd so far in February.

* Speculators last week to boost their net long positions to their highest since October 2020 as they cut  short positions to the lowest since April 2019.

Copper      

Copper yesterday settled up by 1.24% at 637.35 as tight inventories and hopes for more U.S. stimulus boosted sentiment. LME copper inventories were last at 76,050 tonnes, hovering near their lowest since December 2005. ShFE copper stockpiles were near their lowest since December 2011 at 68,588 tonnes. The sentiment also boosted by sustained hopes of the United States soon passing a $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief bill, which could boost the recovery of the world's biggest economy and demand for metals. Survey showed that China produced 798,300 mt of copper cathode in January, falling 7.39% from December, but rising 9.97% from a year ago. Operating rates at copper smelters fell sharply in January as they completed annual production targets at the end of 2020. Besides, shipments of copper concentrate from South America were hampered, which also brought pressure to copper smelters. According to smelters’ production schedules, China’s copper cathode output to increase 1.71% on the month and 18.86% on the year to 812,000 mt in February, as several smelters recover from maintenance. For the first two months of 2021, output is likely to total 1.61 million mt, up 14.28% from the same period last year. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 4.37% to settled at 4416 while prices up 7.8 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 632.1 and below same could see a test of 626.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 641.5, a move above could see prices testing 645.6.

Trading Ideas:            

*  Copper trading range for the day is 626.8-645.6.

* Copper prices rallied to all time as tight inventories and hopes for more U.S. stimulus boosted sentiment.

* LME copper inventories were last at 76,050 tonnes, hovering near their lowest since December 2005.

* Survey showed that China produced 798,300 mt of copper cathode in January, falling 7.39% from December

Zinc      

Zinc yesterday settled up by 0.88% at 216.9 as optimism over economic recovery, expectations that the US Congress is likely to pass Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion Covid-19 relief package and a sliding US dollar index boosted prices. Enterprises are likely to resume production earlier than previous year as employees are encouraged to stay where they work for the Spring Festival in order to reduce the possibility of being infected with COVID-19, and optimism over post-holiday demand from the infrastructure sector also bolstered zinc prices. China’s factory gate prices rose in annual terms in January for the first time in 12 months and at the fastest rate since May 2019, suggesting gathering growth momentum for the world’s second-largest economy. The producer price index (PPI) rose 0.3% from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said in a statement. PPI declined 0.4% in December. The Chinese economy is expected to grow 8.4% this year, following a 2.3% rise in 2020 in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic that forced the country to shut down for much of the March quarter last year. China does not release several key datasets such as trade, industrial output and retail sales for January and instead reports combined January-February numbers in March, leaving markets with fewer data points to assess the health of the economy. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.77% to settled at 1584 while prices up 1.9 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 214.9 and below same could see a test of 212.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 218.4, a move above could see prices testing 219.8.    

Trading Ideas:            

* Zinc trading range for the day is 212.8-219.8.

* Zinc prices gained amid optimism over economic recovery, expectations that the US Congress is likely to pass Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion Covid-19 relief package.

* However, trades were quiet in the spot market as most of the downstream plants have started the Chinese New Year holiday.

* China's refined zinc output stood at 553,500 mt in December, falling 8,800 mt or down 1.57% on month and up 3.06% on year.

Nickel​​​​​​​      

Nickel yesterday settled up by 1.46% at 1358.5 amid optimism about a global recovery supported sentiment, although concerns about the sustainability of a recent risk rally are likely to cap gains. The president of Richmond Fed is not worried about the inflation risk brought by the stimulus plan. Goldman Sachs raised the expected size of the US stimulus bill to US$ 1.5 trillion, and raised the expected growth rate of US GDP to 6.8% and 4.5% this year and next respectively. Cleveland Fed President said that the popularisation of vaccination will accelerate the economic recovery, the market sentiment is unprecedentedly positive. China’s refined nickel output shrank 11.63% from December and 10.17% from a year earlier, to 13,000 mt in January. Gansu smelter and Xinjiang smelter were still in operation in January, producing 12,000 mt and 981 mt of refined nickel respectively, while other smelters continued to suspend their refined nickel production lines, putting raw materials into nickel sulphate production. China’s refined nickel output to fall to 12,000 mt in February 2021 due to shorter operating days of the month. Jinlin smelter plans to resume refined nickel production in March, with monthly output of 500 mt. Shortages of overseas feedstock and cash flow issues are likely to keep other smelters suspended. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 19.05% to settled at 2337 while prices up 19.5 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1342.6 and below same could see a test of 1326.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1367.6, a move above could see prices testing 1376.6.        

Trading Ideas:            

*  Nickel trading range for the day is 1326.6-1376.6.

*  Nickel gains amid optimism about a global recovery supported sentiment

* China’s refined nickel output shrank 11.63% from December and 10.17% from a year earlier, to 13,000 mt in January.

* China’s refined nickel output to fall to 12,000 mt in February 2021 due to shorter operating days of the month.

Aluminium      

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 0.33% at 167.45 as Pre-holiday consumption shrank, and the demand for capital hedging should continue to be monitored. China’s factory gate prices rose in annual terms in January for the first time in 12 months and at the fastest rate since May 2019, suggesting gathering growth momentum for the world’s second-largest economy. The producer price index (PPI) rose 0.3% from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said in a statement. PPI declined 0.4% in December. The Chinese economy is expected to grow 8.4% this year, following a 2.3% rise in 2020 in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic that forced the country to shut down for much of the March quarter last year. But a resurgence of the virus last month, though mostly isolated to the northeastern provinces, raised concerns about temporary disruptions to production. China’s primary aluminium output rose 8.14% year on year to 3.32 million mt in January (31 production days), showed survey. As of early February, there was 39.55 million mt among 43.2 million mt per year of existing primary aluminium capacity in operation, while operating rates across Chinese primary aluminium producers stood at 91.6%. The daily average primary aluminium output rose 1,400 mt from December to 107,200 mt in January as Yunnan Shenhuo and Inner Mongolia Chuangyuan continued to release output. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.31% to settled at 827 while prices up 0.55 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 166.9 and below same could see a test of 166.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 168.2, a move above could see prices testing 168.8.

Trading Ideas:            

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 166.2-168.8.

* Aluminium prices gained as Pre-holiday consumption shrank, and the demand for capital hedging should continue to be monitored.

* China’s factory gate prices rose in annual terms in January for the first time in 12 months and at the fastest rate since May 2019.

* The producer price index (PPI) rose 0.3% from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said in a statement

Mentha oil​​​​​​​      

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.31% at 960 on level buying after prices dropped due to demand from cosmetics and toiletries sector in India. The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market. The market has been faced with the lack of migrant labor, supply chain disruptions, shutdown of manufacturing activities, to name a few. Support also seen on the expectation that India’s fragrance industry which had been slow, now slowly gaining the positive momentum post the COVID unlock down. Headed towards a new decade, the fragrance industry has received a much needed boost with the acceptance of trendy dhoop sticks and dhoop cones which has seen an increased 20% demand day by day. The global aroma chemicals market is likely to record a steady CAGR of about 4% during the assessment period of 2020-2030. Growing demand for aroma chemicals in the food & beverage and fragrance industry will underpin the growth of the market. Strict regulations in relation to artificial flavours are complimenting to the expansion of natural aroma chemicals in the food sector. Out of India's total mentha oil exports, nearly 55% goes to China while 16% goes to the US and around 5% goes to Singapore. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -1.9 Rupees to end at 1092.4 Rupees per 360 kgs. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -17.95% to settled at 64 while prices up 3 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 958.4 and below same could see a test of 956.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 961.9, a move above could see prices testing 963.7.  

Trading Ideas:            

* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 956.7-963.7.

* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -1.9 Rupees to end at 1092.4 Rupees per 360 kgs.

*  Mentha oil gained  on level buying after prices dropped due to demand from cosmetics and toiletries sector in India. 

*  The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market.

* The global aroma chemicals market is likely to record a steady CAGR of about 4% during the assessment period of 2020-2030.

Soyabean      

Soyabean yesterday settled down by -0.36% at 4761 as pressure seen after WASDE report showed bigger soybean carryout than estimated. Brazilian farmers had managed to double the area harvested to 4%, from 2% in the previous week this also weighing on soybean prices. However downside seen limited due to lower production and stock on both domestic and international. The USDA pegged the U.S. 2020/2021 soybean carryout at 120 million bushels vs. the USDA’s January estimate of 140 million bushels. The USDA pegged the 2020/2021 Brazil soybean output at 133.0 mmt. vs. the USDA’s January estimate of 132 mmt. For Argentina, the USDA pegged its soybean output at 48.0 mmt. vs. and the USDA’s January estimate of 48.0 mmt. Soybean world ending stocks have been cut to 83.36Mt from 84.31Mt, and the estimate for China’s soybean imports was unchanged at 100Mt. USDA’s forecast for soybean imports to Europe including the United Kingdom has been cut by 250,000t to 15.15Mt. The country was expected to produce 120 million metric tons of soybeans but 80 lakh metric tons was produced. Crop of 40 lakh metric tons was damaged due to bad weather. Arrival of soybean has also increased in mandis in one week to 126,793.28 from 102,534.04 of last week. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 32 Rupees to 4899 Rupees per 100 kgs. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 3.63% to settled at 218930 while prices down -17 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 4728 and below same could see a test of 4694 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4795, a move above could see prices testing 4828.         

Trading Ideas:            

* Soyabean trading range for the day is 4694-4828.

* Soyabean prices ended with losses as pressure seen after WASDE report showed bigger soybean carryout than estimated.

* Brazilian farmers had managed to double the area harvested to 4%, from 2% in the previous week this also weighing on soybean prices.

* However downside seen limited due to lower production and stock on both domestic and international.

* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained  32 Rupees to 4899 Rupees per 100 kgs.

Ref.Soyaoil​​​​​​​      

Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled down by -1.62% at 1110.1 after update that India's edible oil consumption is expected to contract for the second straight year in 2020/21 as a rally in vegetable oil prices to multi-year highs curbs retail buying, industry officials told. Edible oil consumption could fall to 21 million tonnes in 2019/20 marketing year ending on Oct. 31 from 22 million a year earlier, he said. In 2018/19 demand was around 23 million tonnes. India's edible oil consumption usually rises by 2-3% per annum because of rising population and prosperity, but this year it will likely fall by around 5%, he said. Lower consumption would reduce imports as India fulfils more than 70% of its demand through imports. "Imports fell last year due to lockdown. This year a combination of very high prices and increased availability of oilseeds would bring down imports," said Atul Chaturvedi, president of the Solvent Extractors Association of India. India's edible oil imports could fall to 12.5 million tonnes in 2020/21 from last year's 13.2 million, the lowest in six years, Chaturvedi said. The country imports palm oil mainly from Indonesia and Malaysia, and other oils such as soy and sunflower oil from Argentina, Brazil, Ukraine and Russia. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1126.35 Rupees per 10 kgs. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.11% to settled at 35160 while prices down -18.3 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1100 and below same could see a test of 1088 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1128, a move above could see prices testing 1144.       

Trading Ideas:            

* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1088-1144.

* Ref soyoil prices dropped after update that India's edible oil consumption is expected to contract for the second straight year in 2020/21

* Edible oil consumption could fall to 21 million tonnes in 2019/20 marketing year ending on Oct. 31 from 22 million a year earlier

*  Soyoil imports could drop marginally from last year's 3.4 million tonnes

*  At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1126.35 Rupees per 10 kgs.

Crude palm Oil​​​​​​​      

Crude palm Oil yesterday settled down by -0.91% at 1001.9 after Malaysia's palm oil inventories rose more than expected in January as exports plunged to a near 14-year low while output continued to decline, data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) showed. Stockpile in the world's second largest producer increased 4.7% to reach 1.32 million tonnes at the end of January from the month prior, rising for the first time in four months. January inventories were expected to rise 1.8% to 1.29 million tonnes. Crude palm oil production fell more than expected to its lowest since February 2016. It slumped 15.5% in January to 1.13 million tonnes, falling for a fourth straight month due to rainy weather and a pandemic-induced labour crunch, and against expectations for smaller 13% fall. Palm oil exports also slumped more than expected to their lowest since February 2007. Exports plunged 42.3% to 947,395 tonnes, data from the industry regulator showed, against expectations for a 35% fall. Exports from Malaysia during Feb. 1-10 rose between 47% to 54% from the same period in January, cargo surveyors said. February's exports were seen recovering sharply over a very weak base of Jan. 1-10's exports, however, the rise is primarily due to a delay in January shipments which sailed in February. In spot market, Crude palm oil dropped by -2.5 Rupees to end at 1011.3 Rupees. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -9.97% to settled at 5244 while prices down -9.2 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 992.4 and below same could see a test of 983 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1016.1, a move above could see prices testing 1030.4.         

Trading Ideas:            

* CPO trading range for the day is 983-1030.4.

* Crude palm oil dropped after Malaysia's palm oil inventories rose more than expected in January as exports plunged to a near 14-year low

* Stockpile in the world's second largest producer increased 4.7% to reach 1.32 million tonnes at the end of January from the month prior

* Crude palm oil production fell more than expected to its lowest since February 2016. It slumped 15.5% in January to 1.13 million tonnes

* In spot market, Crude palm oil dropped  by -2.5 Rupees to end at 1011.3 Rupees.

Mustard Seed      

Mustard Seed yesterday settled up by 0.38% at 5244 amid crop damage in north due to cold waves. The latest Government data shows that the planted area in Mustard or RM seed has so far reached 73.25 Lakh hectares as against 68.64 Lakh hectares during last year’s corresponding period. The government aims to take the area under mustard to around 80 lakh hectares this year, under the Oilseeds Mission program. The mustard crop continues providing better prices to farmers than the MSP till now. India’s 2020-21 mustard crop may touch 100 lakh ton-level due to higher sowing and conducive weather. The sowing of oilseed crops has increased to 81.80 lakh hectares in the current Rabi whereas till this time last year, it was sown only in 77.79 lakh hectares. At the national level, the total production area of rabi crops increased to 620.71 lakh hectare, compared to 603.15 lakh hectare to 17.56 lakh hectare or 2.91 percent and the general average area from 620.27 lakh hectare to 44 thousand hectare in the same period last year. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 52.15 Rupees to end at 6474.25 Rupees per 100 kg. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 4.59% to settled at 2960 while prices up 20 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 5205 and below same could see a test of 5165 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5270, a move above could see prices testing 5295.

Trading Ideas:            

* Rmseed trading range for the day is 5165-5295.

* Mustard seed gained amid crop damage in north due to cold waves. 

*  New mustard arrivals will start in Uttar Pradesh's mandis.

* Production area of the Rabi season has reached a height of 73.94 lakh hectare

* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 52.15 Rupees to end at 6474.25 Rupees per 100 kg.

Turmeric​​​​​​​      

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 2.16% at 7580 as high domestic and export demand, coupled with fears of lower output, have fuelled prices. apart from the quality of new goods being lighter, the percentage of moisture is also coming higher. The arrival of dry goods in the coming days, the quality will also start to improve. The arrival of new goods has started in Telangana and Sangli Mandi in Maharashtra. The arrival of new crop on the Erode line will start in the month of March. But due to less sowing this year, the production is also less likely than last year. During the current week Erode single polished bundle in Erode Mandi was quoted at Rs 6100/6300 with a rise from Rs 5800/6000. In recent sessions, prices were up in the spot due to lack of stock and inward arrivals of new goods in the month of February-March. During the current week, the price of Gatta without polish in Warangal rose by Rs 200 to Rs 5600. While the double polished bundle was strengthened from Rs 6200 to Rs 6400. Further new goods arrived in the turmeric auction held in Sangli Mandi, Maharashtra in the beginning of the week but due to moisture and quality turmeric trade was low. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7100 Rupees gained 3.55 Rupees. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.54% to settled at 8300 while prices up 160 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7428 and below same could see a test of 7274 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7722, a move above could see prices testing 7862.          

Trading Ideas:            

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7274-7862.

* Turmeric prices gained as high domestic and export demand, coupled with fears of lower output, have fuelled prices

* The arrival of new goods has started in Telangana and Sangli Mandi in Maharashtra.

* But apart from the quality of new goods being lighter, the percentage of moisture is also coming higher.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7100 Rupees gained 3.55 Rupees.

Jeera      

Jeera yesterday settled down by -0.11% at 13345 as the season progresses in Gujarat, the increase in Rabi sowing continues. Arrival quantity is less and the moisture content in it is being more. The season progresses in Gujarat, the increase in Rabi sowing continues. The supply of good quality new crop is expected to increase from the third week of February and then its commercial activities will also pick up. The area under cultivation of cumin in Gujarat has come down from 4.88 lakh hectare in last year to 4.69 lakh hectare, but its 15.50 percent more than 4.06 lakh hectare as per Five Year Average Area. The production area of cumin in Rajasthan has increased from 6.41 lakh hectare to 6.85 lakh hectare. The weather condition is good this time in both the provinces of Gujarat and Rajasthan and till now the crop has not faced any natural disaster. The average yield rate of cumin may increase if the weather is favorable in February-March. Prices have remained largely stable due to better domestic and export demand in cumin. The total production of cumin is likely to be around last year. An average daily arrival of 10-20 bags of new cumin seeds and 30-40 bags of new fennel is coming in Unjha Mandi. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -40.6 Rupees to end at 13010.55 Rupees per 100 kg. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.27% to settled at 1164 while prices down -15 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 13290 and below same could see a test of 13230 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 13450, a move above could see prices testing 13550.          

Trading Ideas:            

* Jeera trading range for the day is 13230-13550.

* Jeera prices settled flat as the season progresses in Gujarat, the increase in Rabi sowing continues. 

* The supply of good quality new crop is expected to increase from the third week of February and then its commercial activities will also pick up.

* The area under cultivation of cumin in Gujarat has come down from 4.88 lakh hectare in last year to 4.69 lakh hectare

* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -40.6 Rupees to end at 13010.55 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton      

Cotton yesterday settled down by -0.7% at 21400 as pressure seen after the Union Ministry of Textiles’ Committee on Cotton Production and Consumption (COCPC) has projected a higher crop at 371 lakh bales (each of 170 kg) for the year 2020-21. Cotton trade had estimated the crop size at 358.50 lakh bales. In its meeting, the Committee, estimated the average cotton yield of 486.76 kg per hectare, up from 463.99 kg reported in the previous year. For the previous year, projected cotton crop size of 365 lakh bales in the country. As per the latest projections, Gujarat will be the largest cotton-growing State with 90.5 lakh bales and one of the highest yields at 676.86 kg per hectare. Rajasthan, with 27 lakh bales, is expected to have highest cotton yield at 683.04 kg. Besides Gujarat, the top three cotton growing states include Maharashtra with 86 lakh bales with 349.43 kg yield and Telangana with 60 lakh bales and 429.84 kg of cotton yield. Commenting on the cotton crop projections, J Thulasidharan, Chairman of Indian Cotton Federation, said that a higher crop would pose a serious challenge for India to clear huge stocks of the fibre crop. As per the government estimate, closing stock for 2020-21 is likely to be 97.95 lakh bales, as comapred to 120.95 lakh bales recorded last year. In spot market, Cotton gained by 30 Rupees to end at 21300 Rupees. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -7.24% to settled at 5820 while prices down -150 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 21350 and below same could see a test of 21300 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 21470, a move above could see prices testing 21540.           

Trading Ideas:            

* Cotton trading range for the day is 21300-21540.

* Cotton prices dropped as pressure seen after COCPC estimate is higher by 12.5 lakh bales over trade projections

*  The Committee, estimated the average cotton yield of 486.76 kg per hectare, up from 463.99 kg reported in the previous year.

* For the previous year, projected cotton crop size of 365 lakh bales in the country.

* In spot market, Cotton gained  by 30 Rupees to end at 21300 Rupees.

Chana​​​​​​​      

Chana yesterday settled down by -0.71% at 4611 as the arrival of new gram is increasing gradually in the producing states. Old gram selling remains normal, keeping prices under pressure. In absence for the new crop, millers are buying gram as per need. During the Rabi season this year, about 112 lakh hectare area has been sown in the gram producing states, which was in 107.30 lakh hectare last year. Weather friendly is likely to increase productivity. Prices are running lower than MSP. The challenge of buying gram will be in front of the government. Selling of chana at the port was seen better. Chana arrivals are increasing in the mandis of Maharashtra. The pressure of new crop arrivals was seen on the markets. From next month, arrival of gram will also start in Rajasthan. In Australia due to the growth in the sowing area and favorable conditions of weather and rainfall, during the current marketing season of 2020-21, there are signs of a significant increase in the production of all the major pulses including gram, lentils, peas and faba beans etc. This time harvesting and preparation of the crop started a little late. As per sources except for parts of Queensland, all other major pulses growing areas of the country received good rainfall at the right time. In Delhi spot market, chana dropped by -35.4 Rupees to end at 4600 Rupees per 100 kgs. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.16% to settled at while prices down -33 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 4588 and below same could see a test of 4566 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4648, a move above could see prices testing 4686. 

Trading Ideas:            

* Chana trading range for the day is 4566-4686.

* Chana prices dropped as the arrival of new gram is increasing gradually in the producing states. 

* Old gram selling remains normal, keeping prices under pressure.

* In absence for the new crop, millers are buying gram as per need.

* In Delhi spot market, chana dropped  by -35.4 Rupees to end at 4600 Rupees per 100 kgs.

-www.kediaadvisory.com