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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.49% at 47689 as the dollar and Treasury yields retreated ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's nomination hearing as bets grew for a quicker pace of U.S. interest rate hikes. Powell pledged "to prevent higher inflation from becoming entrenched" in comments prepared for delivery at his hearing before the Senate Banking Committee for a second four-year term at the helm of the Fed. In prepared remarks for his confirmation hearing before the Senate, Powell said that the economy is expanding at its fastest pace in many years and the labor market is strong. Persistently high inflation combined with a labor market near full employment will push the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates more than expected this year, according to the latest forecast from Goldman Sachs. The World Bank on cut its forecasts for economic growth in the United States, the Euro area and China and warned that high debt levels, rising income inequality and new COVID-19 variants threatened the recovery in developing economies. It said global growth is expected to decelerate "markedly" to 4.1% in 2022 from 5.5% last year, and drop further to 3.2% in 2023 as pent-up demand dissipates and governments unwind massive fiscal and monetary support provided early in the pandemic. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -10.21% to settled at 6889 while prices up 234 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 47532 and below same could see a test of 47376 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 47772, a move above could see prices testing 47856.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 47376-47856.
* Gold prices gained as the dollar and Treasury yields retreated as bets grew for a quicker pace of U.S. interest rate hikes.
* Fed's Powell- The economy will be different following the pandemic, the Fed must adapt to those changes
* Fed's Powell- We will use our tools to support the economy and the labor market

Silver

Silver yesterday settled up by 0.72% at 61103 as investors remain concerned about slowing economic growth on the back of surging prices and rising COVID cases. China locked down Anyang, a city of some 5 million inhabitants, adding to restrictions in place at Xi'an and Tianjin, the world's fourth-largest port. Still, the white metal remains under heavy pressure around levels not seen since July 2020 amid expectations of tightening monetary policy in 2022 and weak industrial demand. The Fed will use its tools to support the economy and a strong labor market and to prevent higher inflation from becoming entrenched, prepared remarks from Jerome Powell confirmation hearing before the Senate Banking Committee showed. Fed Chair also signalled a high inflation toll and acknowledged that the post-pandemic economy will likely be different. The Fed announced at its December 2021 meeting it would end its pandemic-era bond purchases in March, paving the way for three interest rate hikes by the end of 2022. But FOMC minutes released later showed a more hawkish Fed, and the central bank signalled it may become warranted to increase the federal funds rate sooner or at a faster pace than previously anticipated. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -9.2% to settled at 15488 while prices up 436 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 60769 and below same could see a test of 60435 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 61302, a move above could see prices testing 61501.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 60435-61501.
* Silver remained supported as investors remain concerned about slowing economic growth on the back of surging prices and rising COVID cases.
* The Fed will use its tools to support the economy and a strong labor market and to prevent higher inflation from becoming entrenched
* U.S. 10-yr Treasury yield ease off 2-year highs

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 3.61% at 6004 supported by tight supply and hopes that rising coronavirus cases and the spread of the Omicron variant will not derail a global demand recovery. OPEC supply additions are running below their allowed increase under a pact with allies due to a lack of capacity in some countries. Outages in Libya have also supported prices and while production has risen, the National Oil Corp. said it was suspending exports from the Es Sider terminal. Libya's El Feel oilfield resumed production and was back to normal output rates, Mellitah Oil and Gas company said in a statement. An armed group halted production last month, demanding military accreditation and the construction of a new road. Kazakhstan's daily oil and gas condensate production fell 6% in early January from December levels, as mass anti-government protests rocked the country. Output from Kazakh oil fields fell to 1.766 million barrels per day (bpd) in the first nine days of the month from an average 1.882 million bpd in December, calculations showed and the sources said, citing preliminary daily output data. Brent rose 50% in 2021 and has rallied further in 2022 as investors see demand rising while OPEC and its allies, known as OPEC+, slowly ease record output cuts made in 2020. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 70.35% to settled at 11969 while prices up 209 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 5871 and below same could see a test of 5737 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6080, a move above could see prices testing 6155.

Trading Ideas:

* Crude oil trading range for the day is 5737-6155.
* Crude oil gained supported by tight supply and hopes that rising coronavirus cases will not derail a global demand recovery.
* Libyan oil output rises, but exports suspended at Es Sider
* U.S. crude inventories expected to fall for seventh week

Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 1.55% at 307.1 on lingering cold-weather production declines and forecasts for higher heating demand next week than previously expected. U.S. natural gas prices in 2022 at the Henry Hub benchmark in Louisiana will likely ease to their lowest level in two years. After jumping to a seven-year high in 2021 as the economy recovered from 2020's coronavirus demand destruction, forecast gas prices will slide to an average of $3.79 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) in 2022 and $3.20 in 2023. Data provider Refinitiv said output in the U.S. Lower 48 states has averaged 94.6 bcfd so far in January, down from a record 97.6 bcfd in December. The forecast for this week was lower than Refinitiv projected on Monday, while the outlook for next week was higher. On a daily basis, Refinitiv said total U.S. gas demand plus exports hit a preliminary record of 150.9 bcfd on Jan. 7. That would top the current record of 150.6 bcfd on Jan. 30, 2019, and the 147.2 bcfd hit on Feb. 12, 2021, just before Winter Storm Uri left millions without power and heat for days after freezing gas wells and pipes in Texas and other U.S. Central states. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.34% to settled at 7291 while prices up 4.7 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 299 and below same could see a test of 290.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 312.6, a move above could see prices testing 318.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Natural gas trading range for the day is 290.9-318.1.
* Natural gas jumped on lingering cold-weather production declines and forecasts for higher heating demand next week than previously expected.
* U.S. natural gas prices in 2022 at the Henry Hub benchmark in Louisiana will likely ease to their lowest level in two years.
* Data provider Refinitiv said output in the U.S. Lower 48 states has averaged 94.6 bcfd so far in January, down from a record 97.6 bcfd in December.

Copper

Copper yesterday settled up by 0.89% at 740.25 as low inventories of the metal offset pressure from a firmer dollar, while investors focused on U.S. inflation data. Data showed inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 23.6% to 29,182 tonnes from the week before. China's copper output rose 6.71% in December from the previous month to 802,200 tonnes as producers stepped up production to meet annual targets. For 2021, output jumped 7.24% to 9.18 million tonnes fuelled by recovering treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs). Peruvian Prime Minister Mirtha Vasquez said she would travel again next Friday to an area of frequent protests against MMG Ltd's Las Bambas copper mine as tensions with community protesters build up once again. The domestic copper cathode output in December stood at 870,300 mt, up 5.38% month-on-month (MoM) and 0.97% year-on-year (YoY). Generally speaking, many smelters have completed their maintenance, and some recovered quickly from accidents. There were a few smelters producing with high operating rates to meet their annual production targets. As such, the domestic copper cathode in December was far higher than market estimate, marking a new high in nearly 6 months. In terms of maintenance plans, only Yunnan Copper, Fuye Group and Huludao Beifang Copper were under maintenance. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -15.27% to settled at 3905 while prices up 6.5 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 735.6 and below same could see a test of 730.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 743.2, a move above could see prices testing 746.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 730.9-746.1.
* Copper remained supported as low inventories of the metal offset pressure from a firmer dollar, while investors focused on U.S. inflation data.
* China's copper output rose 6.71% in December from the previous month to 802,200 tonnes
* Data showed inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 23.6% to 29,182 tonnes from the week before.

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled up by 1.08% at 289.45 as the production in Daqiuzhuang, Tianjin was suspended as the staff was required to take COVID test. The total inventory across seven major markets in China stood at 126,800 mt, which has been rising recently as the overall consumption weakened. Data showed that China's refined zinc output stood at 513,300 mt in December 2021, down 1.2% or 6,200 mt on the month and 7.26% on the year. The cumulative output from January to December stood at 6.09 million mt, a year-on-year decrease of 0.29%. The alloy output at domestic refined zinc smelters in survey sample registered 78,400 mt in December, up 1,200 mt on the month. There has been unexpected refined zinc output declines in December, according to SMM survey. Expected output growth: The smelters in Inner Mongolia returned to full production after the maintenance or energy consumption control came to an end. High power prices have forced some zinc smelters to suspend operations and some analysts believe the situation will continue to be difficult during the winter. Lower than usual wind speeds in Europe and less electricity generated by wind turbines worsened a crunch last year that sent power prices to record highs as utilities had to buy more coal as well as scarce and costly natural gas. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 5.8% to settled at 1460 while prices up 3.1 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 286.7 and below same could see a test of 283.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 291.3, a move above could see prices testing 293.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 283.9-293.1.
* Zinc prices remained supported as the production in Daqiuzhuang, Tianjin was suspended as the staff was required to take COVID test.
* The total inventory across seven major markets in China stood at 126,800 mt, which has been rising recently as the overall consumption weakened.
* Data showed that China's refined zinc output stood at 513,300 mt in December 2021, down 1.2% or 6,200 mt on the month and 7.26% on the year.

Nickel

Nickel yesterday settled up by 2.05% at 1601.4 boosted by tight supply hopes as producers cut production and as global inventories pointed to solid demand. The China Iron and Steel Association said China's 2021 crude steel output was expected to fall to 1.03 billion tonnes from a record of 1.065 billion tonnes, reaching a "supply and demand balance". Output is also expected to be curbed by Spring Festival holidays and the Beijing Winter Olympics because industries have been asked to lower output during the Games. At the same time, demand for nickel from a surge in electric vehicle sales has bouyed the market, with major car producers ramping up output and sales. Worries over supply have pushed up the premium of LME cash nickel over the three-month contract to $130 a tonne from $47 a tonne in mid-December. Nickel stocks in Shanghai Futures Exchange (ShFE) warehouses are close to record lows at 4,859 tonnes, down from about 16,000 tonnes a year ago. Worries about nickel supplies on the LME market have created a premium of $125 a tonne for the cash over the three-month contract, a one-month high. The domestic refined nickel output stood at about 15,012 mt in December, down about 209 mt or 1.37% MoM. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 83.31% to settled at 3208 while prices up 32.2 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1571 and below same could see a test of 1540.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1619.5, a move above could see prices testing 1637.5.

Trading Ideas:

* Nickel trading range for the day is 1540.5-1637.5.
* Nickel gained boosted by tight supply hopes as producers cut production and as global inventories pointed to solid demand.
* Worries over supply have pushed up the premium of LME cash nickel over the three-month contract to $130 a tonne from $47 a tonne in mid-December.
* Nickel stocks in Shanghai Futures Exchange (ShFE) warehouses are close to record lows at 4,859 tonnes, down from about 16,000 tonnes a year ago.

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 0.84% at 234.15 buoyed by falling inventories and production cuts amid soaring power prices in Europe. Data last week showed inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange were at 314,859 tonnes, its lowest level since November 2021. Stocks of aluminium in LME-registered warehouses were last at 911,500 tonnes, down more than 50% since hitting a 1.96 mln tonne high in March last year. A surge in power and natural gas costs across Europe has led to output reductions at smelters, with an aluminium smelter in Dunkirk, France being the latest to announce an output cut. Indonesia allowed 14 vessels loaded with coal to depart as soon as they secure verifications from mining and transport authorities, a senior minister said, easing an export ban by the world's top thermal coal exporter. Production cuts in Europe due to soaring power costs are expected to fuel further rises in aluminium prices, which hit $2,980 a tonne, the highest since October 21. A major aluminium smelter in Dunkirk, France will reduce production by 15% in response to soaring electricity prices. Bank of America predicted the deficit would rise to 2.7 million tonnes in 2024, when prices would be around $3,500 a tonne. China produced 3.18 million mt of aluminium in December, down 3.17% on the year. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 5.55% to settled at 2624 while prices up 1.95 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 232 and below same could see a test of 229.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 235.4, a move above could see prices testing 236.6.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 229.8-236.6.
* Aluminium rose buoyed by falling inventories and production cuts amid soaring power prices in Europe.
* Data last week showed inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange were at 314,859 tonnes, its lowest level since November 2021.
* Stocks of aluminium in LME-registered warehouses were last at 911,500 tonnes, down more than 50% since hitting a 1.96 mln tonne high in March last year.

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -1.3% at 1005.6 on account on fresh selling as sentiments dropped among the trader with the third wave of corona virus is spreading five times faster. There is an explosive situation of infection in seven states of the country. Due to the rapid spread of Omicron, this curiosity arises in the mind whether there will be a lock down in the country. Overall 2022 Q1 prices are expected to see good support as the Indian pharma industry has shown a double digit growth of around 15% led by growth of Covid-19 products in the last one year as against a single digit growth of 3% shown last year, according to Indian pharmaceutical market research company Pharmasofttech AWACS Pvt. Ltd in its latest report. Also as per the latest news going viral in market is that Mandi Tax has been exempted for exports and the orders have been sent to all Mandi Sectt offices district wise, while trader are waiting for complete information on same. Due to lackluster price move since last 2 year with poor export performance this year's sowing can see much impact resulting surge in prices. Also the FMCG makers also expect that a sudden increase in COVID cases and some restrictions imposed by local authorities in some states would again impact the demand for out of home' channels products, which was recovering from the last few months, though demand for home consumption and immunity products is going to gain for few weeks. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 19.2 Rupees to end at 1125.9 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.26% to settled at 1022 while prices down -13.2 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 998.5 and below same could see a test of 991.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1015.3, a move above could see prices testing 1025.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 991.5-1025.1.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 19.2 Rupees to end at 1125.9 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil dropped on account on fresh selling as sentiments dropped among the trader with the third wave of corona virus is spreading five times faster.
* Overall 2022 Q1 prices are expected to see good support as the Indian pharma industry has shown a double digit growth of around 15%.
* Due to lackluster price move since last 2 year with poor export performance this year's sowing can see much impact resulting surge in prices.

Turmeric​​​​​​​

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 0.17% at 10524 amid crop damage due to heavy rains and cyclones this year. Turmeric crop was damaged in Maharashtra, Nizamabad in Telangana and Kadapa in Andhra Pradesh due to rains and cyclones. For the past three years, traders were offering lower price for turmeric due to lack of demand. The farmers, who incurred losses during this period due to low price, are hoping to get good price this year, so that they could clear their dues to some extent. The market sentiment is buoyant mainly since the ending stocks are expected to be 17-18 lakh bags (50 kg each) this year against 25 lakh bags last year. Spices Board data showed turmeric production this year being projected at 11.01 lakh tonnes against 11.78 lakh tonnes last year, mainly on the output being affected in Telangana, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Assam and Haryana. Spices Board data show turmeric exports lower by 26 per cent in volume during the first half of the current fiscal at 77,245 tonnes valued at ₹860.31 crore against 1.04 lakh tonnes valued at ₹903.31 crore during the same period a year ago. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 9381.8 Rupees dropped -72.75 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed remain unchanged in open interest by 0% to settled at 8740 while prices up 18 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 10372 and below same could see a test of 10222 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 10632, a move above could see prices testing 10742.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 10222-10742.
* Turmeric prices gained amid crop damage due to heavy rains and cyclones this year.
* Turmeric crop was damaged in Maharashtra, Nizamabad in Telangana and Kadapa in Andhra Pradesh due to rains and cyclones.
* The farmers, who incurred losses during this period due to low price, are hoping to get good price this year
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 9381.8 Rupees dropped -72.75 Rupees.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 0.58% at 18150 as local and overseas consumption started improving, the market began moving upwards. Rise in export demand, the decline in the 2020-21 production as well as carryover stock estimates kept trade sentiments strong. The production in Syria had fallen by roughly 25-30 percent in 2021, versus the previous year because of political instability. Exports of Indian cumin usually decrease after July-August every year when Turkey and Syria used to supply the global consumers. The estimated jeera production for the crop year 2020-21 may be lower by 30-35% on account of decline in sown area and lower yield (because of adverse weather prevailing) in the major producing states Gujarat and Rajasthan. The cropped area has fallen due to a shift towards other crops like cotton, soybean and mustard, which offered lucrative returns last year. The export of cumin is increasing continuously and in the coming days, the export sales are expected to continue with greater quantity. The carry forward inventory is pegged lower versus last year, as consumption is likely to remain stable while production estimate is revised lower. Considering the production estimate dropping by nearly 30-40 percent over last season, and stable demand situation, there are expectations of prices to touch even 20000 levels this year. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -42.45 Rupees to end at 17242.85 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 8.61% to settled at 9768 while prices up 105 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 17905 and below same could see a test of 17665 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 18290, a move above could see prices testing 18435.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 17665-18435.
* Jeera prices rallied as local and overseas consumption started improving, the market began moving upwards.
* Rise in export demand, the decline in the 2020-21 production as well as carryover stock estimates kept trade sentiments strong.
* The production in Syria had fallen by roughly 25-30 percent in 2021, versus the previous year because of political instability.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -42.45 Rupees to end at 17242.85 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled up by 0.14% at 34790 amid expectations of firm demand, particularly from China and tight supplies. Indian cotton exports have begun to slide due to traders charging hefty premiums over benchmark U.S. futures on expectations of lower output at a time when there is strong demand from local textile mills, industry officials said. The higher premiums sought by India, the world's biggest cotton producer, could force Asian buyers such as Bangladesh, Vietnam and China to increase purchases from other suppliers such as the United States, Brazil, Australia and African nations. Indian cotton is being offered at around 135 cents per lb, cost and freight-basis, to buyers in Bangladesh for January and February shipment, nearly 20 cents over U.S. futures. Indian mills have exported 1.8 million bales so far in the season and are likely to ship around 1 million bales in January and February. India's cotton production could fall to 34 million bales in 2021/22 marketing year, down nearly 4% from a year ago as crops in key producing states were damaged by rains during the harvesting season. The lower output is reflected in spot markets, with daily trading volumes dropping to around 175,000 bales, whereas 250,000 bales would be more usual at this time of year. In spot market, Cotton dropped by -290 Rupees to end at 35160 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.42% to settled at 5889 while prices up 50 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 34440 and below same could see a test of 34090 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 35160, a move above could see prices testing 35530.

Trading Ideas:

* Cotton trading range for the day is 34090-35530.
* Cotton gained amid expectations of firm demand, particularly from China and tight supplies.
* Indian cotton exports have begun to slide due to traders charging hefty premiums on expectations of lower output
* India's cotton production could fall to 34 million bales in 2021/22 marketing year, down nearly 4% from a year ago
* In spot market, Cotton dropped  by -290 Rupees to end at 35160 Rupees.

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