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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.08% at 47169 as a worldwide spike in COVID-19 infections and some signs the economy is slowing in both China and the US offered some support to the yellow metal. Still, a stronger dollar weighed as the Fed signalled it would start reducing asset purchases this year. Minutes from the Fed's July meeting showed the US central bank seeing the potential to ease the bond-buying program if the economy continues to improve as expected. Federal Reserve officials felt their employment benchmark for decreasing support for the economy “could be reached this year,” but appeared to disagree on other key aspects of where monetary policy should turn next in the transition from the pandemic crisis, according to minutes from last month’s policy meeting. The account of the July 27-28 meeting showed Fed officials largely expect that later this year they will reduce the central bank’s emergency monthly purchases of $120 billion of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities. Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari said that it could be “reasonable” to start reducing the Fed’s bond-buying program later this year, though it would depend on making further progress in the labor market. “It is a question of when, not a question of if” the Fed will slow its bond-buying, currently at $120 billion each month, Kashkari said. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.92% to settled at 12240 while prices up 37 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 46878 and below same could see a test of 46587 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 47655, a move above could see prices testing 48141.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 46587-48141.
* Gold steadied as a worldwide spike in COVID-19 infections and some signs the economy is slowing in both China and the US offered some support.
* Still, a stronger dollar weighed as the Fed signalled it would start reducing asset purchases this year.
* The US central bank seeing the potential to ease the bond-buying program if the economy continues to improve as expected.

Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -0.56% at 62133 as minutes from the US Fed, which showed policymakers agreed to a more hawkish monetary policy stance still this year. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell for a fourth straight period to a new pandemic low of 348 thousand in the week ending August 14th. Federal Reserve officials felt their employment benchmark for decreasing support for the economy “could be reached this year,” but appeared to disagree on other key aspects of where monetary policy should turn next in the transition from the pandemic crisis, according to minutes from last month’s policy meeting. The account of the July 27-28 meeting showed Fed officials largely expect that later this year they will reduce the central bank’s emergency monthly purchases of $120 billion of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities. It remains unclear whether the heightened outbreak of the coronavirus Delta variant will have a noticeable impact on the economy, U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said. Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari said that it could be “reasonable” to start reducing the Fed’s bond-buying program later this year, though it would depend on making further progress in the labor market. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.61% to settled at 10552 while prices down -350 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 61865 and below same could see a test of 61596 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 62619, a move above could see prices testing 63104.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 61596-63104.
* Silver dropped as minutes from the US Fed, which showed policymakers agreed to a more hawkish monetary policy stance still this year.
* Federal Reserve officials felt their employment benchmark for decreasing support for the economy “could be reached this year.”
* Fed's Powell: Not certain Delta outbreak will dent recovery

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -3.12% at 4722 as the spread of the delta coronavirus variant threatens demand. U.S. crude oil stockpiles last week fell by 3.2 million barrels to 435.5 million barrels, their lowest since January 2020, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration data. U.S. weekly jet fuel product supplied, a proxy for demand, last week rose to about 1.7 million barrels per day, the highest since March 2020, the data showed. U.S. crude stocks and distillate inventories fell while gasoline inventories rose, the Energy Information Administration said. Crude inventories fell by 3.2 million barrels in the week to August 13 to 435.5 million barrels, compared with expectations for a 1.1 million-barrel drop. Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub fell by 980,000 barrels in the last week, EIA said. U.S. gasoline stocks rose by 696,000 barrels in the week to 228.2 million barrels, the EIA said, compared with expectations for a 1.7 million-barrel drop. U.S. shale oil production is expected to rise to 8.1 million barrels per day (bpd) in September, the highest since April 2020, according to the Energy Information Administration's monthly drilling output report. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 11.1% to settled at 6424 while prices down -152 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 4668 and below same could see a test of 4613 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4772, a move above could see prices testing 4821.

Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 4613-4821.
* Crude oil prices remained under pressure as the spread of the delta coronavirus variant threatens demand.
* U.S. crude stockpiles drop to lowest since Jan 2020 – EIA
* Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub fell by 980,000 barrels in the last week, EIA said.

Natural gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -0.66% at 284.5 on forecasts for milder weather over the coming weeks that could reduce the use of electricity to power air-conditioning in many parts of the country. Data provider Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 92 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) this week to 93 bcfd next week. Refinitiv also said gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states averaged 92 bcfd so far in August, up from 91.6 bcfd in July. That compares with an all-time high of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants is expected to jump to 11 bcfd in the next two weeks. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities added 49 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended Aug. 6. Last week's injection boosted stockpiles to 2.776 trillion cubic feet (tcf), or 6.0% below the five-year average of 2.954 tcf for this time of year. Data provider Refinitiv said gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to an average of 92.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in August from 91.6 bcfd in July. That compares with an all-time high of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.3% to settled at 6428 while prices down -1.9 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 279.6 and below same could see a test of 274.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 288.1, a move above could see prices testing 291.6.

Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 274.6-291.6.
* Natural gas eased on forecasts for milder weather over the coming weeks that could reduce the demand.
* The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants is expected to jump to 11 bcfd in the next two weeks.
* Also this week EIA report will be smaller than the 5-year average due to widespread heat over the US this past week.

Copper 

Copper yesterday settled down by -1.42% at 684.4 amid a stronger dollar, demand concerns from the resurgence in Covid-19 and easing supply disruptions. China's refined copper output in July rose 10.4% year on year to 846,000 tonnes, data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed, with the total also up slightly from the previous month. Meanwhile, residents near MMG Ltd’s Las Bambas copper mine in the Peruvian Andes have blocked a road used to transport the metal after a two-week truce. The Andina mine in Chile was operating at a reduced level due to a strike, while workers at Chile’s Minera Lumina Copper mine also walked off the job. Yangshan copper premium leaped to $72 per tonne, its highest since March 3, indicating improving demand to import the metal into top consumer China. U.S. homebuilding fell more than expected in July, the latest sign that surging construction costs and home prices continued to constrain the housing market early in the third quarter. Though the report from the Commerce Department showed a rebound in building permits last month, the increase was led by the volatile multi-family home segment, which will do little to ease an acute housing shortage. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6.86% to settled at 4996 while prices down -9.85 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 675.5 and below same could see a test of 666.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 691, a move above could see prices testing 697.5.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 666.5-697.5.
* Copper prices slumped amid a stronger dollar, demand concerns from the resurgence in Covid-19 and easing supply disruptions.
* China July refined copper output up 10.4% y/y
* Yangshan copper premium leaped to $72 per tonne, its highest since March 3, indicating improving demand

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -0.93% at 244.85 amid the cooled down market sentiments by the uncertainty of economic recovery. Fed Chairman Powell warned about the uncertainty to economic recovery, and stated that the Fed tools are limited. The US retail sales fell 1.1% in July, which cooled down the optimistic sentiments in the market. The power curtailment has been loosened in Guangxi, Hunan, and Yunnan, but the affected output in August is still higher than expected. The output of zinc ingot is expected to be 494,400 mt in August, and the supply will remain tight. With the seasonal recovery of downstream operations, zinc consumption will increase month-on-month, and zinc ingot inventories are expected to remain at a low level. The U.S. economy likely created 166,000 fewer jobs in the 12 months through March than previously estimated, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics said. The reading is a preliminary estimate of the BLS’ annual “benchmark” revision to closely watched payrolls data. Japan's economy rebounded more than expected in the second quarter after slumping in the first three months of this year, data showed, a sign consumption and capital expenditure were recovering from the coronavirus pandemic's initial hit. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -16.92% to settled at 943 while prices down -2.3 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 243 and below same could see a test of 241.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 246.7, a move above could see prices testing 248.5.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 241.1-248.5.
* Zinc prices dropped amid the cooled down market sentiments by the uncertainty of economic recovery.
* Fed Chairman Powell warned about the uncertainty to economic recovery, and stated that the Fed tools are limited.
* The power curtailment has been loosened in Guangxi, Hunan, and Yunnan, but the affected output in August is still higher than expected.
 

Nickel

Nickel yesterday settled down by -2.58% at 1398.5 amid bearish non-ferrous metals caused by less-than-expected retail sales data in July and soring US dollar index. UK inflation data showed a sharper slowdown than expected - though analysts said investors were focused more on the state of the labour market. British inflation fell to the Bank of England’s 2% target last month, a slowdown that economists said was most likely a blip as the reopening of the economy after lockdown drives prices higher. The dollar strengthened after the latest Fed meeting minutes showed the central bank will likely start reducing stimulus this year, making dollar-priced metals more expensive to holders of other currencies. Meanwhile, supply worries eased after the main workers’ union in the Escondida copper mine in Chile announced it had reached an agreement with BHP to avoid industrial action. Also, recent economic data for the both the US and China pointed to a slowdown in the two world’s largest economies. The European Central Bank's new policy guidance can boost inflation expectations, paving the ground to higher interest rates down the line, the ECB's chief economist Philip Lane said. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.82% to settled at 1589 while prices down -37.1 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1386 and below same could see a test of 1373.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1418.4, a move above could see prices testing 1438.3.

Trading Ideas:
* Nickel trading range for the day is 1373.5-1438.3.
* Nickel prices trended down amid bearish non-ferrous metals caused by less-than-expected retail sales data in July and soring US dollar index.
* UK inflation data showed a sharper slowdown than expected - though analysts said investors were focused more on the state of the labour market.
* British inflation fell to the Bank of England’s 2% target last month.

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -1.18% at 204.75 as inventors became more worried about a slowing economic growth, depressing risk appetite. On the macro front, Fed Chairman Powell warned about the uncertainties in economic outlook against the repeated COVID-19 pandemic, and also said that Fed’s facilities had limitations. In the data front, US retail sales in July fell 1.1%, which was wider than expected, indicating consumers’ shift to the services sector. China's aluminium imports in July rose 6.1% from the previous month, data released by the General Administration of Customs showed, hitting their highest since September 2020. Imports of unwrought aluminium and products - which include primary metal and unwrought, alloyed aluminium - were 312,086 tonnes last month, up from 294,081 tonnes in June but down 20.2% from bumper shipments a year earlier. Curbs on smelters' electricity usage in some regions are reducing domestic aluminium supply in China, the world's top producer of the metal, underpinning imports that were up 47% year on year in the first seven months of 2021. July was also the last month before Russia, one of China's biggest overseas suppliers of primary aluminium, imposed a tax of a 15% - or a minimum of $254 a tonne - on aluminium exports. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -9.15% to settled at 1360 while prices down -2.45 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 204 and below same could see a test of 203.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 205.9, a move above could see prices testing 206.9.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 203.1-206.9.
* Aluminium prices dropped as inventors became more worried about a slowing economic growth, depressing risk appetite.
* Fed Chairman Powell warned about the uncertainties in economic outlook against the repeated COVID-19 pandemic
* China's aluminium imports in July rose 6.1% from the previous month, hitting their highest since September 2020.

Mentha oil 

Mentha oil yesterday settled remain unchangeby 0% at 927.2 on low level buying after prices dropped as average yield in Barabanki is improved by 5-6 kgs per acre due to better weather. Pressure seen arrivals likely to increase due to favourable weather conditions. Daily arrivals should gradually pick up to 400-500 drums in next 7-10 days. Last week, prices rallied. The Lucknow-based Central Institute of Medicinal and Aromatic Plants estimates that this adverse effect of rains on the crop is expected to reduce production by 30% in the last two weeks. The crop is prone to rain because the leaves of the crop start falling due to waterlogging in the field. Most of the farmers have planted Mentha crops and this rain is not less than acid for 50 percent of Mentha crop. Last month, support seen due to the rotting of the crop due to stagnant water in the field. The past few weeks have been painful as heavy rains in the pre-monsoon season have damaged the mentha crop which was ready for harvesting. Due to drowning in the water, the rows have started to wither. With the harvesting of the crop, oil extraction work has also started. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 46.3 Rupees to end at 1068.9 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed remain unchanged in open interest by 0% to settled at 918 while prices remain unchanged 0 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 923.3 and below same could see a test of 919.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 929.6, a move above could see prices testing 932.1.

Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 919.5-932.1.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 46.3 Rupees to end at 1068.9 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil gained on low level buying after prices dropped as average yield in Barabanki improved
* Pressure seen arrivals likely to increase due to favourable weather conditions.
* The past few weeks have been painful as heavy rains in the pre-monsoon season have damaged the mentha crop which was ready for harvesting.

Soyabean

Soyabean yesterday settled remain unchangeby 0% at 7698 as the U.S. Department of Agriculture cut its U.S. production and yield estimates from last month. The USDA, in a monthly report, estimated U.S. soybean production at 4.339 billion bushels, with an average yield of 50.0 bushels per acre. That was down from 4.405 billion bushels and a yield of 50.8 bushels per acre in July. Exporters sold 132,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to China for the 2021/2022 marketing year, as well as 198,000 tonnes to unknown destinations, the USDA said separately. It was the latest in a string of recent soybean sales. China has lowered its estimates of soybean imports in the year 2020/21 following a decline in crush margins, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said in its monthly crop report. China's 2020/21 soybean imports were seen at 98.6 million tonnes, down 1.84 million tonnes from last month's estimates, as the crushing volume of soybeans has fallen since July because of declining margins, the report said. Soybean registered the highest growth in their acreage as overall Kharif sowing in Gujarat has touched 76.67 lakh hectare (lh) or 82.61 per cent of last three years’ average, latest data of the state government shows. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 63 Rupees to 9153 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed remain unchanged in open interest by 0% to settled at 20045 while prices remain unchanged 0 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 5132 and below same could see a test of 2566 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5132, a move above could see prices testing 2566.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Soyabean trading range for the day is 7079-8209.
* Soyabean gained as U.S. Department of Agriculture cut its U.S. production and yield estimates from last month.
* The USDA, in a monthly report, estimated U.S. soybean production at 4.339 billion bushels, with an average yield of 50.0 bushels per acre.
* India to import 1.2 mn tonne GM soyameal after govt clears air
* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained  63 Rupees to 9153 Rupees per 100 kgs.
 

Soyaoil 

Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled down by -0.23% at 1400.3 tracking weakness in CPO prices after seen supported by lingering concerns over tight supply. Edible oil prices are likely to remain elevated till the arrival of new crop in the October-November period, industry officials said. The rates are unlikely to come down anytime soon as India meets more than half of domestic demand through imports, BV Mehta, executive director, Solvent Extractors Association of India (SEA) said. The soybean oil price has surged due to efforts of making renewable bio-diesel fuel from it in the US, Brazil and other countries. Total oilseeds production in the country during 2020-21 is estimated at record 36.10 million tonnes which is higher by 2.88 million tonnes than the production during 2019-20. Further, the production of oilseeds during 2020-21 is higher by 5.56 million tonnes than the average oilseeds production of 30.55 million tonnes. India's imports of sunflower oil could rise to a record in 2021/22 as potential bumper crops in Russia and Ukraine pull prices below rival soyoil, making it lucrative for price-sensitive buyers from the subcontinent, industry officials said. India is the world's biggest importer of edible oils and higher purchases of sunflower oil could help exporters such as Argentina, Russia and Ukraine to dispose of surplus output. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1424.9 Rupees per 10 kgs.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.63% to settled at 37715 while prices down -3.2 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1393 and below same could see a test of 1387 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1404, a move above could see prices testing 1409.

Trading Ideas:
* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1387-1409.
* Ref soyoil dropped tracking weakness in CPO prices after seen supported by lingering concerns over tight supply.
* Edible oil prices are likely to remain elevated till the arrival of new crop in the October-November period, industry officials said.
* The soybean oil price has surged due to efforts of making renewable bio-diesel fuel from it in the US, Brazil and other countries.
* At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1424.9 Rupees per 10 kgs.

Crude palm Oil 

Crude palm Oil yesterday settled down by -0.6% at 1171.1 amid anticipation of an increase in production and bleak demand outlook. Export shipments during the first half of August had plunged between 15% and 24% from the previous month, cargo surveyors data showed. Indonesia's palm oil exports fell 26.8% in June from the same month a year earlier to 2.03 million tonnes due to volatile prices, the country's palm oil association GAPKI said in a statement. Demand from buyers in the European Union, Middle East, India and Pakistan also dropped, GAPKI said. Crude palm oil output rose 9.4% in June from a year earlier to 4.48 million tonnes, according to the data. Indonesia, the world's largest palm exporter, had enjoyed greater demand than Malaysia over July and August, partly due to lower export taxes and higher discounts for its crude and refined palm oil. Top buyer India is also expected to raise their import tax structure for crude and refined palm oil from end-September as subscriptions for the Diwali festival are finalized. The Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers' Association forecast a 10.6% rise in August 1-15 production. In spot market, Crude palm oil dropped by -7.4 Rupees to end at 1203.3 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.27% to settled at 5826 while prices down -7.1 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 1167.1 and below same could see a test of 1163 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1176.2, a move above could see prices testing 1181.2.

Trading Ideas:
* CPO trading range for the day is 1163-1181.2.
* Crude palm oil dropped amid anticipation of an increase in production and bleak demand outlook.
* Export shipments during the first half of August had plunged between 15% and 24% from the previous month
* Indonesia's palm oil exports fell 26.8% in June from the same month a year earlier to 2.03 million tonnes due to volatile prices
* In spot market, Crude palm oil dropped  by -7.4 Rupees to end at 1203.3 Rupees.

Mustard Seed

Mustard Seed yesterday settled remain unchangeby 0% at 7849 as USDA estimates Canada rapeseed production for marketing year 2021/22 at 16.0 million metric tons (mmt), down 4.2 mmt (21 percent) from last month, 3.0 mmt (16 percent) from last year, and 20 percent below the 5-year average. Harvested area is estimated at 8.7 million hectares, down 3 percent from last month, but 4 percent above last year, and roughly equivalent to the 5-year average. The month-to-month decrease in area is due to the expectation of weather-related abandonment with prospects for hay being the best use. Yield is estimated at 1.84 metric tons per hectare, down 18 percent from last month and 20 percent below the 5-year average. A European Union Oilseeds and Protein Crops market situation report estimates that the EU will import 6 million metric tons of canola/rapeseed from third countries in 2021-22, 200,000 mt higher than the previous crop year. However, mustard arrivals in its major producing states i.e. Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat improved. Production in Canada in 2021 expected to drop by 1.7 million tons to 16.9 million tons. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 120.75 Rupees to end at 7920.75 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed remain unchanged in open interest by 0% to settled at 38450 while prices remain unchanged 0 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 5232 and below same could see a test of 2616 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5232, a move above could see prices testing 2616.

Trading Ideas:
* Rmseed trading range for the day is 7665-8031.
* Mustard seed prices gained as USDA estimates Canada rapeseed production down as drought in the Prairies intensifies.
* EU weekly rapeseed imports jumped by 70% to 127k mt, total at 414k mt
* EU Oilseeds situation report estimates that the EU will import 6 million metric tons of rapeseed from third countries in 2021-22.
* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 120.75 Rupees to end at 7920.75 Rupees per 100 kg.

Turmeric 

Turmeric yesterday settled remain unchangeby 0% at 8204 as support seen on following export demand from Europe, Gulf countries and Bangladesh. Turmeric crops were severely damaged in Parbhani and Hingole due to heavy rains. Further there is expectation of increase in Turmeric sowings in some areas were the key factors that dented market sentiments in the month of June. As the lockdown restrictions were eased in the month of June, the key Turmeric growing states, including Maharashtra and Telangana reported noticeable increase in mandi arrivals, which augmented physical market supplies and pressurized prices. Mandi arrivals of Turmeric, at all-India level, more than doubled in June 2021 compared to the previous month supported by substantial increase in arrivals in Maharashtra and Telangana. Mandi arrivals had remained sluggish in April and May due to closure of mandis in many regions on account of festival season and Covid related lockdown restrictions. According to the statistics of the Department of Commerce, Government of India, the highest number of 1.84 lakh tonnes of turmeric was exported during the last financial year 2020-21. The export of turmeric is highest in the months of May, June and July. After the relaxation of the lockdown in some states, spot prices have started increasing in Erode and Nanded mandis last week. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7583.35 Rupees gained 19.05 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed remain unchanged in open interest by 0% to settled at 12950 while prices remain unchanged 0 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 5468 and below same could see a test of 2734 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5468, a move above could see prices testing 2734.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7950-8402.
* Turmeric prices seen supported on following export demand from Europe, Gulf countries and Bangladesh.
* Turmeric crops were severely damaged due to heavy rains.
* Further there is expectation of increase in Turmeric sowings in some areas
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7583.35 Rupees gained 19.05 Rupees.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled remain unchangeby 0% at 14525 as demand is likely to recover in the second half of 2021, as festivals and weddings are likely to boost retail purchases in the fourth quarter. Also from 15th August many states in India are facing long-awaited relaxations from Independence Day on Sunday. Malls can now reopen, while restaurants, gyms, salons and spas are permitted to function at 50% capacity till 10pm, helping ease livelihoods. Support also seen after the news that the Taliban is returning to power in Kabul after a military advance across Afghanistan. President Ashraf Ghani fled the country on August 15 as the Islamist militants entered the city, bringing the Islamist militants close to taking over the country two decades after they were overthrown by a US-led invasion. Afghanistan over 100 tonnes of black and green cumin seeds worth $16 million have been exported from western Herat province to foreign countries in 2021. According to the Exports Department of the provincial Chamber of Commerce and Investment, 9,857 tonnes of green cumin and 94 tonnes of black cumin were exported to foreign nations this year. Last year, 2,540 tonnes of green cumin and 20 tonnes of black cumin had been exported abroad. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 200 Rupees to end at 14200 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed remain unchanged in open interest by 0% to settled at 6096 while prices remain unchanged 0 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 9680 and below same could see a test of 4840 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 9680, a move above could see prices testing 4840.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 13960-14930.
* Jeera rose as major markets reopened after lockdown, and the upcoming festival season is expected to increase domestic demand.
* Only 45-50 percent of the total production has come to the market.
* As per preliminary estimates suggested that carryover stocks of Jeera are likely to be around of about 20-25 Lakh
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 200 Rupees to end at 14200 Rupees per 100 kg.
 

Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled down by -0.99% at 26090 on profit booking after prices seen supported as USDA in its latest August WASDE report cut US cotton production projection by 5.40 lakh bales and also 5.5 lakh bales reduction in world production. World's cotton demand for 2021-22 is projected as 123.33 million bales against world's production of 118.84 million bales which is 4.49 million bales lower than demand. USDA India’s cotton production is expected to be £ 29m,480 bales, unchanged from last month and up 2% from last year. USDA is monitoring whiteflies in northern Punjab and pinkflies in central India, which could affect yields, USDA said. India's harvested area is projected to be 12.9 million hectares, a slight decrease from last month and last year due to slow progress and pauses in the southwest monsoon and competition with other crops. Indian Cotton yields this month are projected to reach 489 kg per hectare, a slight increase from July of this year and a 3% increase from 2020. New crop arrivals in Pakistan have started and official KCA spot rate is at 13500 PKR per maund. Physical cotton market in Pakistan is its lifetime high level. Rate of cotton in Sindh reached at Rs.13,600 per maund and the rate of cotton in Punjab reached at Rs.13,900 to Rs.14100 per maund. In spot market, Cotton gained by 170 Rupees to end at 27330 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -9.44% to settled at 2331 while prices down -260 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 25970 and below same could see a test of 25850 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 26230, a move above could see prices testing 26370.

Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 25850-26370.
* Cotton dropped on profit booking after prices seen supported as USDA cut US cotton production projection by 5.40 lakh bales
* World's cotton demand for 2021-22 is projected as 123.33 million bales against world's production of 118.84 million bales.
* USDA India’s cotton production is expected to be £ 29m,480 bales, unchanged from last month and up 2% from last year.
* In spot market, Cotton gained  by 170 Rupees to end at 27330 Rupees.

Chana

Chana yesterday settled remain unchangeby 0% at 4996 as demand is likely to recover in the second half of 2021, as festivals and weddings are likely to boost retail purchases in the fourth quarter. Also from 15th August many states in India are facing long-awaited relaxations from Independence Day on Sunday. Malls can now reopen, while restaurants, gyms, salons and spas are permitted to function at 50% capacity till 10pm, helping ease livelihoods. Meanwhile support also seen after the release of all India pulses sowing data on Friday, revealed that all India, about 126.98 lakh ha area coverage has been reported compared to corresponding week’s 127.40 lakh ha. Thus 0.42 lakh ha less i.e 0.33% area has been covered compared to last year. Last week PM Narendra Modi released the ninth installment of financial benefit under Pradhan Mantri Kisan Samman Nidhi (PM-KISAN), enabling the transfer of more than Rs 19,500 crore to more than 9.75 crore beneficiaries which will raise the sentiments among the Farmers. In Delhi spot market, chana gained by 132.1 Rupees to end at 4993.35 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed remain unchanged in open interest by 0% to settled at 95640 while prices remain unchanged 0 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 3330 and below same could see a test of 1665 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 3330, a move above could see prices testing 1665.

Trading Ideas:
* Chana trading range for the day is 4649-5223.
* Chana gained as demand is likely to recover in the second half of 2021, as festivals and weddings are likely to boost retail purchases
* The production of pulses has been increasing during the last three years and the target for 2021-2022 has been set at 23 LMT
* India is likely to receive an average amount of rainfall in August and September, the state-run weather office said
* In Delhi spot market, chana gained  by 132.1 Rupees to end at 4993.35 Rupees per 100 kgs.
 

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