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Gold trading range for the day is 45974-47430 - Kedia Advisory
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Gold
Gold yesterday settled up by 1.52% at 46901 rebounding from a more than seven-month low hit in the previous session, as a weakening dollar eclipsed pressure from firmer Treasury yields. The dollar eased against rivals as traders sought currencies with close ties to the global commodities trade due to an improving economic outlook. The pound hit a new three-year high of $1.4050 as the British government's vaccine drive continued to progress. U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson is to table a "cautious" roadmap in Parliament to ease the country out of the strict stay-at-home lockdown in place to control the spread of coronavirus infections. Meanwhile, benchmark U.S. Treasury yields hit a near one-year high, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. On the stimulus front, U.S. Democrats are fast-tracking the Covid-19 relief bill with the U.S. House of Representatives expected to vote on Biden's proposed package by the end of the week. In testimony before the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday and the House Financial Services panel the following day, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will probably play down the risk of inflation. Physical gold demand in India this week surged as local prices dropped to their lowest levels since June last year, with buying expected to pick up in other Asian centres after the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday week. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.78% to settled at 12798 while prices up 704 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 46438 and below same could see a test of 45974 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 47166, a move above could see prices testing 47430.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 45974-47430.
* Gold prices rose rebounding from a more than seven-month low, as a weakening dollar eclipsed pressure from firmer Treasury yields.
* The dollar eased as traders sought currencies with close ties to the global commodities trade due to an improving economic outlook.
* Physical gold demand in India this week surged as local prices dropped to their lowest levels since June last year
Silver
Silver yesterday settled up by 2.06% at 70432 helped by broad dollar weakness as President Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion US COVID-19 package is expected to be approved in the coming days, while investors await Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's testimony on the Semiannual Monetary Report to Congress starting on Tuesday. Meanwhile, US Treasury yields hit their highest level in a year, amid inflationary concerns arising from strong economic activity, further fiscal stimulus and the vaccination program rolling out. A $1.9 trillion stimulus is widely expected to pass by the end of the week, lifting sentiments for an increased economic recovery, but at the cost rising inflation. Investors are also eyeing the testimony of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on the Semiannual Monetary Report to Congress beginning Tuesday. The Fed and other major central banks have pinned their hopes on ultra low interest rates to get the economy out of the grasp of a COVID-19-led fall-out. Hedge funds and money managers raised their bullish positions in silver contracts in the week to Feb. 16, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said. In U.S. economic news, a report released by the National Association of Realtors showed existing home sales rose by 0.6% to an annual rate of 6.69 million in January after climbing by 0.9% to a revised rate of 6.65 million in December. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.27% to settled at 11645 while prices up 1420 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 69442 and below same could see a test of 68452 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 70961, a move above could see prices testing 71490.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 68452-71490.
* Silver prices rallied helped by broad dollar weakness as President Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion US COVID-19 package is expected to be approved in the coming days
* Meanwhile, US Treasury yields hit their highest level in a year, amid inflationary concerns arising from strong economic activity.
* Investors are also eyeing the testimony of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on the Semiannual Monetary Report to Congress beginning Tuesday.
Crude oil
Crude oil yesterday settled up by 3.04% at 4435 as the slow return of U.S. crude output that was cut by frigid conditions raised concerns about supply just as demand is coming back from the depths of the coronavirus pandemic. Abnormally cold weather in Texas and the Plains states forced the shut down of up to 4 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude production along with 21 billion cubic feet of natural gas output, analysts estimated. Oilfield crews will likely take several days to de-ice valves, restart systems and begin oil and gas output. U.S. Gulf Coast refiners are assessing damage to facilities and may take up to three weeks to restore most of their operations. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said the government has been working on some support measures for the oil producing industry, including changes in taxation, following last year's decision to hike taxes. The government has been increasing oil producers' taxes to raise money to cushion the economy from fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic. Money managers raised their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions in the week to Feb. 16 to the highest since June, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said. The speculator group raised its combined futures and options position in New York and London by 16,219 contracts to 399,935 during the period. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 39.17% to settled at 3503 while prices up 131 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 4355 and below same could see a test of 4274 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4487, a move above could see prices testing 4538.
Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 4274-4538.
* Crude oil prices rose as the slow return of U.S. crude output that was cut by frigid conditions raised concerns about supply just as demand is coming back
* Abnormally cold weather in Texas and the Plains states forced the shut down of up to 4 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude production
* Russia working on oil industry support after tax hikes, says deputy PM Novak
Nat.Gas
Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -5.18% at 210.5 on forecasts for milder weather and lower heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. Texas energy firms on Friday began to prepare for oil and gas production after days of frozen shutdowns as electric power and water service slowly resumed. They face up to three weeks to restore most production. Preliminary data from Refinitiv showed production is expected to rise to 75.5 bcfd on Friday after collapsing to around 72.9 bcfd on Feb. 17, its lowest since August 2017. Production in warmer regions, such as Texas and the U.S. Gulf Coast, is particularly susceptible to freeze-offs because the wellhead infrastructure is generally not winterized. Refinitiv estimated 383 heating degree days (HDDs) over the next two weeks in the Lower 48 U.S. states, down from Thursday's forecast of 397 HDDs. The normal is 366 HDDs for this time of year. HDDs measure the number of degrees a day's average temperature is below 65 degrees Fahrenheit (18 degrees Celsius). The measure is used to estimate demand to heat homes and businesses. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -36.17% to settled at 4027 while prices down -11.5 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 206.2 and below same could see a test of 201.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 218, a move above could see prices testing 225.4.
Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 201.8-225.4.
* Natural gas fell on forecasts for milder weather and lower heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.
* EIA forecast U.S. utilities pulled 237 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage during the week ended Feb. 12.
* The U.S. natural gas output slumped to 72.88 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) on Wednesday, the lowest level since January 2017
Copper
Copper yesterday settled up by 2.12% at 698.7 extending a rally that has been driven mainly by expectation of a pick-up in demand after the Chinese New Year. Investors fret over liquidity conditions following a report that the China central bank was focusing more on money market interest rates than the size of its operations. Goldman Sachs raises 12 month copper price target to US$10,500/t. Goldman Sachs warned the copper market is now on the cusp of the tightest phase in what is expected to be the largest deficit in a decade. LME copper jumped on Monday to cross the $9,000 a tonne level for the first time since September 2011, extending a rally that has been driven mainly by expectation of a pick-up in demand after the Chinese New Year. Copper demand is expected to rise as top consumer China returned from a long holiday and on hopes of a stronger global economic recovery due to COVID-19 vaccine roll-outs and further stimulus. A continuing supply and demand imbalance in the copper market has driven prices to these near 10-year highs. On the supply side, the US Geological Survey (USGS) estimated global mine production of copper was 20 million tonnes in 2020, a drop of 2% compared to 2019. USGS said that global copper output declined over previous year primarily due to COVID-19 lockdowns in April and May. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.57% to settled at 4746 while prices up 14.5 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 686.5 and below same could see a test of 674.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 709.9, a move above could see prices testing 721.1.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 674.3-721.1.
* Copper prices hit life time high extending a rally that has been driven mainly by expectation of a pick-up in demand after the Chinese New Year.
* Copper stocks in deposits registered with the LME total 76,025 tonnes, close to its lowest level since 2005.
* The three-month spot copper premium over metal is increasing, suggesting a shortage of supply nearby.
Zinc
Zinc yesterday settled up by 1.52% at 230.8 as risk appetite was stoked by better-than-expected economic data and expectations that US President Joe Biden’s proposed $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief package will come to fruition. China kept the one-year loan prime rate (LPR) unchanged at 3.85%, largely in line with expectations. The five-year LPR was also kept steady at 4.65%.The euro zone flash composite PMI, combining manufacturing and services activity, climbed to 48.1 in February from 47.8 in January. However, any reading below 50 indicates a contraction in business activity. Germany’s composite PMI reading came in at 51.3, up from 50.8 in January, with anything above 50 representing an expansion. A surge in manufacturing activity offset a contraction in services. French activity weakened to 45.2, down from 47.7 in January, as lockdown measures hit the country’s dominant services sector. On the pandemic front, the White House said that it expects to ship out millions of delayed coronavirus vaccine doses this week after a sweeping winter storm disrupted logistics. Gov. Andrew Cuomo said on Sunday that a New York resident has tested positive for the Covid-19 variant first identified in South Africa. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.69% to settled at 2099 while prices up 3.45 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 228.1 and below same could see a test of 225.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 233.8, a move above could see prices testing 236.7.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 225.3-236.7.
* Zinc prices rose as risk appetite was stoked by better-than-expected economic data
* China kept the one-year loan prime rate (LPR) unchanged at 3.85%, largely in line with expectations.
* The euro zone flash composite PMI, combining manufacturing and services activity, climbed to 48.1 in February from 47.8 in January
Nickel
Nickel yesterday settled down by -0.95% at 1413.6 on profit booking after prices gained supported by the macro environment and positive fundamentals, and SHFE nickel has broken through the 140,000/mt mark. Survey showed that orders from downstream precursor factories continued to be strong. Domestic demand for battery-grade nickel sulphate continued to increase MoM in February, while domestic nickel sulphate supply decreased due to the CNY holiday and restrictions on raw materials. Survey showed that China's nickel sulphate supply in January stood at 16,000 metal mt, and the total demand came in at 17,000 metal mt. The inventories decreased 1,000 metal mt. As the domestic pandemic was controlled and various countries support policies for new energy vehicles advanced, domestic demand for nickel sulphate is increasing month by month. Total consumption of battery-grade nickel sulphate by new energy reached 15,000 metal mt in January. The mainstream transaction prices of battery-grade nickel sulphate stood at 33,500-34,000 yuan/mt (crystal) before the CNY. Battery-grade nickel sulphate spot was still in short supply. In addition, domestic nickel sulphate balance data showed that nickel sulphate has been in short supply from September 2020 to now, except for October. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.14% to settled at 2033 while prices down -13.5 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1391.6 and below same could see a test of 1369.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1446.4, a move above could see prices testing 1479.1.
Trading Ideas:
* Nickel trading range for the day is 1369.5-1479.1.
* Nickel dropped on profit booking after prices gained supported by the macro environment and positive fundamentals.
* Survey showed that orders from downstream precursor factories continued to be strong.
* Survey showed that China's nickel sulphate supply in January stood at 16,000 metal mt, and the total demand came in at 17,000 metal mt.
Aluminium
Aluminium yesterday settled up by 1.31% at 173.55 as dollar lost ground as market participants favored currencies associated with risk-on sentiment over the safe-haven greenback. Risk appetite was stoked by better-than-expected economic data and expectations that U.S. President Joe Biden’s proposed $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief package will come to fruition. Prices rallied as the increase of aluminum ingots stocks may not exceed market expectations. The impact of domestic supply and demand mismatch on short-term sentiment fluctuations in the market after the CNY should continue to be monitored. Prices gained driven by a recovery in demand particularly in the automotive, packaging and construction sectors from the Covid-19 hit. Meantime, the Biden administration kept a tariff rate of 10 percent on aluminum imports from the United Arab Emirates. Economic data showed that retail sales increased by 5.3% in January, the biggest increase in seven months. Manufacturing output increased for the fourth consecutive month in January, exceeding expectations. Confidence of residential builders rose slightly in February. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting in January, various economic data, and whether the bullish sentiment could continue to ferment to make the contract maintain its upward trend again will come under scrutiny tonight. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 28.11% to settled at 670 while prices up 2.25 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 171.9 and below same could see a test of 170.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 174.6, a move above could see prices testing 175.6.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 170.2-175.6.
* Aluminium gained as dollar lost ground as market participants favored currencies associated with risk-on sentiment over the safe-haven greenback
* The impact of domestic supply and demand mismatch on short-term sentiment fluctuations in the market after the CNY should continue to be monitored.
* Economic data showed that retail sales increased by 5.3% in January, the biggest increase in seven months.
Mentha oil
Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.35% at 958.4 on low level buying after prices dropped due to weak demand from cosmetics and toiletries sector in India. The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market. The market has been faced with the lack of migrant labor, supply chain disruptions, shutdown of manufacturing activities, to name a few. Support also seen on the expectation that India’s fragrance industry which had been slow, now slowly gaining the positive momentum post the COVID unlock down. Headed towards a new decade, the fragrance industry has received a much needed boost with the acceptance of trendy dhoop sticks and dhoop cones which has seen an increased 20% demand day by day. The global aroma chemicals market is likely to record a steady CAGR of about 4% during the assessment period of 2020-2030. Growing demand for aroma chemicals in the food & beverage and fragrance industry will underpin the growth of the market. Strict regulations in relation to artificial flavours are complimenting to the expansion of natural aroma chemicals in the food sector. Out of India's total mentha oil exports, nearly 55% goes to China while 16% goes to the US and around 5% goes to Singapore. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -1.9 Rupees to end at 1118.3 Rupees per 360 kgs. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6.82% to settled at 41 while prices up 3.3 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 954 and below same could see a test of 949.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 962.8, a move above could see prices testing 967.2.
Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 949.6-967.2.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -1.9 Rupees to end at 1118.3 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil gained on low level buying after prices dropped due to weak demand from cosmetics and toiletries sector in India.
* The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market.
* The global aroma chemicals market is likely to record a steady CAGR of about 4% during the assessment period of 2020-2030.
Soyabean
Soyabean yesterday settled up by 1.65% at 4943 after the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) projected that domestic supplies of the oilseed would remain tight into 2022, stoking concerns of global supply. U.S. stockpiles of soybeans are expected to increase only slightly by the end of the 2021/22 marketing year on Aug. 31, 2022, as strong demand was seen absorbing record-large harvests of the crops that will be planted this spring. Slowing U.S. soybean export demand capped gains as South America's harvest ramped up and as soy export shipments from top supplier Brazil accelerated. The USDA forecast a record-large 2021 soybean harvest of 4.525 billion bushels, up 9.4% from a year earlier, with an average yield of 50.8 bushels per acre. In its first supply estimate for the upcoming crop, the USDA projected 2021/22 soybean ending stocks at 145 million bushels, up from a seven-year low of 120 million in 2020/21. Also, the USDA reported weekly U.S. soybean export sales at 623,900 tonnes, in line with trade estimates for 350,000 to 1.2 million tonnes. Brazilian farmers had managed to double the area harvested to 4%, from 2% in the previous week this also weighing on soybean prices. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 32 Rupees to 5101 Rupees per 100 kgs. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -12.6% to settled at 159745 while prices up 80 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 4901 and below same could see a test of 4858 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4976, a move above could see prices testing 5008.
Trading Ideas:
* Soyabean trading range for the day is 4858-5008.
* Soyabean gains after the USDA projected that domestic supplies of the oilseed would remain tight into 2022, stoking concerns of global supply.
* U.S. stockpiles of soybeans are expected to increase only slightly by the end of the 2021/22 marketing year on Aug. 31, 2022
* U.S. soybean export demand capped gains as South America's harvest ramped up and as soy export shipments from top supplier Brazil accelerated.
* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 32 Rupees to 5101 Rupees per 100 kgs.
Ref.Soyaoil
Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled up by 0.95% at 1153.6 after support seen as extreme cold weather in key U.S. growing areas raised worries about global supplies. Support also seen amid higher demand for edible oils amid winter season and lower imports of Soybean oil in the recent months. Government of India, lowered basic import duty on edible oils. The basic custom duty on CPO slashed from 27.5 percent to 15 percent whereas, soybean oil and sunflower oil duty is cut to 15% from 35%. The government has proposed 17.5% cess on CPO and 20% cess on crude soybean and sunflower oil, further added. The Solvent Extractors’ Association of India has compiled the export data for export of oilmeals for the month of December 2020 and provisionally reported at 512,997 tons compared to 220,404 tons in December, 2019 i.e. more than doubled (133%). The overall export of oilmeals during April to December 2020 recovered and provisionally reported at 2,461,696 tons compared to 1,955,276 tons during the same period of previous year i.e. up by 26%. Export of soybean meal is back on tract, thanks to tightening world supply of soybeans and also linked to the strike induced interruption of Argentina soybean meal. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1162.05 Rupees per 10 kgs. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.87% to settled at 45425 while prices up 10.8 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1150 and below same could see a test of 1145 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1158, a move above could see prices testing 1161.
Trading Ideas:
* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1145-1161.
* Ref soyoil gained after support seen as extreme cold weather in key U.S. growing areas
* Support also seen amid higher demand for edible oils amid winter season and lower imports of Soybean oil in the recent months.
* The growth may be limited as US soy oil export sales are not encouraging.
* At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1162.05 Rupees per 10 kgs.
Crude palm Oil
Crude palm Oil yesterday settled up by 0.87% at 1049.2 as tight supply of palm oils, combined with a higher Indonesian export levy to fund its biodiesel programme has spurred prices. Malaysian palm oil product exports for February 1-20 rose 14.9% to 698,380 tonnes from 607,900 tonnes shipped during January 1-20, cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services said. Global edible oil supplies are expected to recover in the second half of the year, though a labour crunch in Malaysia, volatile weather and slow re-planting could keep crude palm oil prices above their historical 10-year average in 2021/2022. Both Indonesia and Malaysia responded to falling prices last March by fertilizing fewer trees, reducing fruit production. However upside seen limited on fears of lower demand and as Malaysia raised its reference price for March export tax. India has raised the base import price of crude palm oil by $32 to $1,045 per tonne. Malaysia maintained its March export tax for crude palm oil at 8% but raised the reference price to 3,977.36 ringgit per tonne, a circular on the Malaysian Palm Oil Board website showed. Putting further pressure on the market is lower local palm prices at destination markets like India, Pakistan and Bangladesh compared with the benchmark crude palm oil prices. In spot market, Crude palm oil gained by 17.3 Rupees to end at 1054.9 Rupees. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.34% to settled at 4077 while prices up 9 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 1045.4 and below same could see a test of 1041.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1052.3, a move above could see prices testing 1055.3.
Trading Ideas:
* CPO trading range for the day is 1041.5-1055.3.
* Crude palm oil gains as tight supply of palm oils, combined with a higher Indonesian export levy to fund its biodiesel programme has spurred prices
* Malaysian palm oil product exports for February 1-20 rose 14.9% to 698,380 tonnes from 607,900 tonnes shipped during January 1-20
* India has raised the base import price of crude palm oil by $32 to $1,045 per tonne.
* In spot market, Crude palm oil gained by 17.3 Rupees to end at 1054.9 Rupees.
Mustard Seed
Mustard Seed yesterday settled up by 2.14% at 5400 due to better demand as millers remain in the procurement due to the pipeline being empty. The mustard sowing was excellent this year. Production is expected to be better with favorable weather. The arrival of new crops has started increasing in the mandis. The daily arrival of mustard in the current weekend was 1.85 lakh kattas. The daily arrival of new mustard in the mandis of Rajasthan has reached 70 thousand kattas. Mustard is getting up to 7/15 percent moisture. The weather is changing, so the moisture content is expected to decrease soon. The daily arrival of new mustard in the mandis of Uttar Pradesh is increasing day by day. The latest Government data shows that the planted area in Mustard or RM seed has so far reached 73.25 Lakh hectares as against 68.64 Lakh hectares during last year’s corresponding period. The government aims to take the area under mustard to around 80 lakh hectares this year, under the Oilseeds Mission program. The mustard crop continues providing better prices to farmers than the MSP till now. India’s 2020-21 mustard crop may touch 100 lakh ton-level due to higher sowing and conducive weather. The sowing of oilseed crops has increased to 81.80 lakh hectares in the current Rabi whereas till this time last year, it was sown only in 77.79 lakh hectares. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 52.15 Rupees to end at 6161.5 Rupees per 100 kg. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.06% to settled at 32170 while prices up 113 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 5325 and below same could see a test of 5249 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5447, a move above could see prices testing 5493.
Trading Ideas:
* Rmseed trading range for the day is 5249-5493.
* Mustard seed gained due to better demand as millers remain in the procurement due to the pipeline being empty.
* The mustard sowing was excellent this year, production is expected to be better with favorable weather.
* The arrival of new crops has started increasing in the mandis.
* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 52.15 Rupees to end at 6161.5 Rupees per 100 kg.
Turmeric
Turmeric yesterday settled up by 3.99% at 7810 as high domestic and export demand, coupled with fears of lower output, have fuelled prices. Apart from the quality of new goods being lighter, the percentage of moisture is also coming higher. The arrival of dry goods in the coming days, the quality will also start to improve. The arrival of new goods has started in Telangana and Sangli Mandi in Maharashtra. The arrival of new crop on the Erode line will start in the month of March. But due to less sowing this year, the production is also less likely than last year. During the current week Erode single polished bundle in Erode Mandi was quoted at Rs 6100/6300 with a rise from Rs 5800/6000. In recent sessions, prices were up in the spot due to lack of stock and inward arrivals of new goods in the month of February-March. During the current week, the price of Gatta without polish in Warangal rose by Rs 200 to Rs 5600. While the double polished bundle was strengthened from Rs 6200 to Rs 6400. Further new goods arrived in the turmeric auction held in Sangli Mandi, Maharashtra in the beginning of the week but due to moisture and quality turmeric trade was low. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7190.65 Rupees gained 3.55 Rupees. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.07% to settled at 8465 while prices up 300 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7626 and below same could see a test of 7440 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7904, a move above could see prices testing 7996.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7440-7996.
* Turmeric gained as high domestic and export demand, coupled with fears of lower output, have fuelled prices.
* Apart from the quality of new goods being lighter, the percentage of moisture is also coming higher.
* The arrival of dry goods in the coming days, the quality will also start to improve.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7190.65 Rupees gained 3.55 Rupees.
Jeera
Jeera yesterday settled down by -0.51% at 13555 on profit booking after prices gained due to high export demand and Cumin sowing in Gujarat has gone down to 4.69 lakh hectares from last season’s 4.88 lakh hectares. Some support seen as a statement from the Spices Board said the export of spices, which had fetched ₹12,273.81 crores in the first half of the current fiscal between April and September, had grown by 19 percent compared to the corresponding period last year. The Unjha market is receiving nearly 1,000 bags per day from north Gujarat, Saurashtra, and parts of Rajasthan. Jeera production for 2021-22 (marketing period) is estimated at 391,291 MT (around 71 lakh bags each of 55 kg) compared to last year’s 451,451 MT (82 lakh bags). Major export demand coming from UAE and other gulf countries ahead of Ramzan. Domestic demand is also boosted by Ramzan and marriage season. Weather conditions in major producing states have hampered the quality and supply of jeera. On the international front support is also seen as turkey and Syria have reported less production of cumin this season. Production in Syria had dropped around 25-30 percent in 2020 versus the previous year due to political instability that has hampered the farming sector. Cumin production in Turkey was around 15,000 tonne, this year it is estimated to be lower. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -40.6 Rupees to end at 13221.05 Rupees per 100 kg. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.7% to settled at 1212 while prices down -70 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 13495 and below same could see a test of 13430 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 13660, a move above could see prices testing 13760.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 13430-13760.
* Jeera dropped on profit booking after prices gained due to high export demand and Cumin sowing in Gujarat has gone down to 4.69 lakh hectares
* Jeera production for 2021-22 is estimated at 391,291 MT compared to last year’s 451,451 MT
* The Unjha market is receiving nearly 1,000 bags per day from north Gujarat, Saurashtra, and parts of Rajasthan.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -40.6 Rupees to end at 13221.05 Rupees per 100 kg.
Cotton
Cotton yesterday settled up by 0.46% at 21990 as India’s cotton exports may increase by about 30 per cent for the current crop year (October 2020-September 2021) as rising global prices have made the fibre competitive. Exports could be between 65 and 70 lakh bales compared with 50 lakh bales the previous year. The bullishness on cotton exports, after traders pruned their projections to 54 lakh bales last month, follows cotton prices in New York topping 89 cents per pound (₹45,924 a candy of 356 kg). CCI, under the Centre’s procurement scheme at minimum support prices (MSP), has purchased 91.8 lakh bales accounting for nearly 25 per cent of the projected crop this year. The Committee on Cotton Production and Consumption (CCPC) has estimated this year’s production at 371 lakh bales compared with 365 lakh bales last year. The Cotton Association of India (CAI), a body of traders, has retained its production estimate at 360 lakh bales. India holds an advantage with high carryover stocks of over 110 lakh bales from last year. CCPC has projected the carryover stocks from last season at 125 lakh bales, while CAI has pegged it at 113.50 lakh bales. According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, kapas arrivals across the country were 2.84 lakh bales during February 15-18, lower than 3.91 lakh bales during February 8-11. In spot market, Cotton gained by 190 Rupees to end at 21700 Rupees. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 25.46% to settled at 9063 while prices up 100 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 21960 and below same could see a test of 21920 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 22050, a move above could see prices testing 22100.
Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 21920-22100.
* Cotton gains as India’s cotton exports may increase by about 30 per cent for the current crop year.
* Exports could be between 65 and 70 lakh bales compared with 50 lakh bales the previous year.
* CCI, has purchased 91.8 lakh bales accounting for nearly 25 per cent of the projected crop this year.
* In spot market, Cotton gained by 190 Rupees to end at 21700 Rupees.
Chana
Chana yesterday settled down by -1.49% at 4616 as the arrival of new gram is increasing gradually in the producing states. Old gram selling remains normal, keeping prices under pressure. In absence for the new crop, millers are buying gram as per need. During the Rabi season this year, about 112 lakh hectare area has been sown in the gram producing states, which was in 107.30 lakh hectare last year. Weather friendly is likely to increase productivity. Prices are running lower than MSP. The challenge of buying gram will be in front of the government. Selling of chana at the port was seen better. Chana arrivals are increasing in the mandis of Maharashtra. The pressure of new crop arrivals was seen on the markets. From next month, arrival of gram will also start in Rajasthan. In Australia due to the growth in the sowing area and favorable conditions of weather and rainfall, during the current marketing season of 2020-21, there are signs of a significant increase in the production of all the major pulses including gram, lentils, peas and faba beans etc. This time harvesting and preparation of the crop started a little late. As per sources except for parts of Queensland, all other major pulses growing areas of the country received good rainfall at the right time. In Delhi spot market, chana dropped by -35.4 Rupees to end at 4617.9 Rupees per 100 kgs. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.7% to settled at 31210 while prices down -70 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 4578 and below same could see a test of 4541 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4677, a move above could see prices testing 4739.
Trading Ideas:
* Chana trading range for the day is 4541-4739.
* Chana dropped as the arrival of new gram is increasing gradually in the producing states.
* The Ministry of Agriculture approved the purchase of 1,67,000 tonnes of chana under the price support scheme in Karnataka for the Rabi season 2020-21.
* The arrival of new goods of gram in India has started in some areas.
* In Delhi spot market, chana dropped by -35.4 Rupees to end at 4617.9 Rupees per 100 kgs.
