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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.17% at 45962 as prices steadied as traders wait for the reading on U.S. consumer price inflation for directional cues. Support also seen amid lingering concerns over the spread of the Delta variant of the coronavirus and the possibility of an early tapering of the bond buying program by the U.S. Federal Reserve. Two Federal Reserve officials said that the U.S. economy is growing rapidly and that while the labor market still has room for improvement, inflation is already at a level that could satisfy one leg of a key test for the beginning of rate hikes. Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic said he is eyeing the fourth quarter for the start of a bond-purchase taper but is open to an even earlier start if the job market keeps up its recent torrid pace of improvement. Moreover, he and Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin both said they believe inflation has already achieved the Fed's 2% threshold, according to their separate assessments. Their remarks are a sign that as Fed officials hold discussions about how and when to taper their asset purchases, they are also getting more detailed in their debate about what it will take to satisfy the Fed's inflation target under the new framework. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.97% to settled at 13805 while prices up 76 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 45712 and below same could see a test of 45462 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 46162, a move above could see prices testing 46362.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 45462-46362.
* Gold prices steadied as traders wait for the reading on U.S. consumer price inflation for directional cues.
* Fed officials say tapering is near, advancing discussion on rate hike
* Support also seen amid lingering concerns over the spread of the Delta variant of the coronavirus

Silver

Silver yesterday settled unchanged at 62636 on lingering concerns that a booming economy will prompt a sooner-than-expected tapering by the Federal Reserve. Investors look ahead to inflation data out of the US for clues about the path of crisis-era stimulus. Still, concerns over the threats posed by the rapid spread of the Covid-19 delta variant on business activity boosted metals safe-haven appeal. A $1 trillion infrastructure package that is a top priority for U.S. President Joe Biden secured enough votes to pass in the Senate, a bipartisan victory for the White House as it aims to provide the nation's biggest investment in decades in roads, bridges, airports and waterways. Voting was continuing in the 100-seat chamber after the measure secured the 50 votes needed for passage. Polls show that the drive to upgrade America's infrastructure, hammered out by a bipartisan group of senators over months of negotiations, is broadly popular with the public. U.S. worker productivity growth slowed in the second quarter and labor costs were far weaker than previously estimated in the first quarter, the Labor Department said. Nonfarm productivity, which measures hourly output per worker, increased at a 2.3% annualized rate last quarter. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.35% to settled at 12049 while prices remain unchanged -1 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 62133 and below same could see a test of 61631 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 63188, a move above could see prices testing 63741.

Trading Ideas:
 

* Silver trading range for the day is 61631-63741.
* Silver remained in range on lingering concerns that a booming economy will prompt a sooner-than-expected tapering by Fed.
* Investors look ahead to inflation data out of the US for clues about the path of crisis-era stimulus.
* Still, concerns over the threats posed by the rapid spread of the Covid-19 delta variant on business activity boosted metals safe-haven appeal.
 

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 3.19% at 5112 after data showed fuel demand in India rose in July to its highest since April, raising optimism the pandemic setback will not last for long. Fuel consumption, a proxy for oil demand, totaled 16.83 million tons, up 2.9 percent from June and 7.9 percent from the same period a year ago as most restrictions were eased, data on the website of the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC) showed. Hopes for a rise of demand in Europe and the United States as well as progress towards passing a bipartisan infrastructure bill in the U.S. also outweighed concerns over new pandemic curbs in China. Iraq plans to increase oil production to eight million barrels per day (BPD) by the end of 2027, Iraqi Oil Minister Ihsan Abdul Jabbar told the Iraqi news agency (INA). The oil ministry's spokesman, Assem Jihad, also told INA that oil-producing countries reconsidered their plans because of the challenges facing the oil market. "The increases have become calculated according to the variables and developments of the oil market, and that it is not possible to predict what the oil market will be like," Jihad said. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -15.35% to settled at 5516 while prices up 158 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 5015 and below same could see a test of 4918 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5174, a move above could see prices testing 5236.

Trading Ideas:

* Crude oil trading range for the day is 4918-5236.
* Crude oil rose after data showed fuel demand in India rose in July to its highest since April, raising optimism the pandemic setback will not last for long.
* Fuel consumption, totaled 16.83 million tons, up 2.9 percent from June and 7.9 percent from the same period a year ago
* Hopes for a rise of demand in Europe and US as well as progress towards passing a bipartisan infrastructure bill in the U.S. also supported.

Natural gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 0.96% at 303.9 supported by the bullish impact of near record power demand in Texas and all-time high gas prices in Europe. Last week, gas speculators cut their net long futures and options positions on the New York Mercantile and Intercontinental Exchanges for a fourth week in a row for the first time since April as some buyers cashed in their gains after the front-month soared to a 31-month high. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities added 13 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended July 30. Last week's injection boosted stockpiles to 2.727 trillion cubic feet (tcf), or 6.4% below the five-year average of 2.912 tcf for this time of year. Data provider Refinitiv said gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 91.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in August from 91.6 bcfd in July. That was still well below the all-time high of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019. Refinitiv projected average gas demand, including exports, would rise from 90.9 bcfd this week to 94.3 bcfd next week as power generators burn more fuel to meet rising air conditioning use. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.57% to settled at 11510 while prices up 2.9 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 299.6 and below same could see a test of 295.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 308, a move above could see prices testing 312.

Trading Ideas:

* Natural gas trading range for the day is 295.2-312.
* Natural gas rose supported by the bullish impact of near record power demand in Texas and all-time high gas prices in Europe.
* Last week, gas speculators cut their net long futures and options positions for a fourth week in a row for the first time since April
* The U.S. EIA said utilities added 13 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended July 30.

Copper 

Copper yesterday settled up by 1.16% at 734.2 on worries of supply disruptions at Chile's Escondida, the world's biggest copper mine, as mediation talks in hopes of preventing a strike were extended. BHP Group Ltd and the union of workers at its Escondida copper mine in Chile said they would extend government mediated contract talks an additional day in a last-ditch effort to stave off a strike. Yangshan copper premium rose to $60 a tonne, its highest since March 26, indicating improved demand for importing the metal into top consumer China. China's copper imports in July fell 1.0% from June, declining for a fourth straight month, customs data showed, as high prices, the release of state reserves and increased scrap metal inflows kept buying interest at bay. Imports of unwrought copper and copper products into China, the world's biggest copper consumer, were 424,280.3 tonnes last month, the General Administration of Customs said. That was down from 428,437.5 tonnes in June and well below the record high of 762,211 tonnes in July 2020. Activity in China's copper-intensive manufacturing and construction sectors expanded at a slower pace in July amid high raw material costs and extreme weather. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -7.93% to settled at 3960 while prices up 8.4 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 727.2 and below same could see a test of 720.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 739.2, a move above could see prices testing 744.2.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 720.2-744.2.
* Copper prices rose on worries of supply disruptions at Chile's Escondida, as mediation talks in hopes of preventing a strike were extended.
* Yangshan copper premium rose to $60 a tonne, its highest since March 26, indicating improved demand for importing the metal into top consumer China.
* China's copper imports in July fell 1.0% from June, declining for a fourth straight month, customs data showed

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled up by 1.47% at 248.55 as power curtailment has been influencing supply from mines with intensified policies in Hunan and Guangxi. The pandemic has also resulted in a delayed transportation and increased delivery costs, lifting operation costs among downstream businesses. Clues to demand prospects for industrial metals will come from Chinese data over the next few days, including total social financing, loans, industrial production and investment. China's output of zinc in July rose more slowly than expected from the prior month due to restrictions on power use in key production hubs. Refined zinc and zinc alloy production from 51 smelters surveyed was 461,000 tonnes last month; that was up 9,700 tonnes from June and up 7.1% year-on-year, although average daily output fell 1.1% on the month. Ongoing curbs on power consumption by smelters in Yunnan, which only boosted output by 12,000 tonnes month-on-month, as well as new measures in Guangxi and maintenance elsewhere kept supply levels down. With some power restrictions continuing in August, this month's zinc output is seen decreasing by 13,000 tonnes to 448,000 tonnes. The Federal Reserve shall set about tapering QE and accelerating paring back on bond purchase should the next two month’s job report were strong enough. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 11.19% to settled at 1629 while prices up 3.6 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 246.5 and below same could see a test of 244.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 250.1, a move above could see prices testing 251.5.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 244.3-251.5.
* Zinc prices gained as power curtailment has been influencing supply from mines with intensified policies in Hunan and Guangxi.
* The pandemic has also resulted in a delayed transportation and increased delivery costs, lifting operation costs among downstream businesses.
* Clues to demand prospects for industrial metals will come from Chinese data over the next few days.

 

Nickel

Nickel yesterday settled up by 1.43% at 1443.9 due to strong demand for nickel from stainless steel and new energy sector, tightened supply. Domestic nickel output stood at around 12,335 mt in July, down 13.48% or 1,922 mt month on month. Operating rates of smelters stood at 56%. Peak production in June in Gansu lifted the overall June benchmark, and returned to normal entering July, resulting in a reduction on a month-on-month basis. While slight reduction seen in Xinjiang was caused by seasonal adjustment. Domestic nickel output will stand at 12,400 mt in August amid stable production and completion of maintenance at smelters. On the macro front, Chair of Atlanta Fed suggested the Federal Reserve shall set about tapering QE and accelerating paring back on bond purchase should the next two month’s job report were strong enough. In China, the clinical application of “booster dose” was recently approved, easing market worries over the pandemic. Domestic output of nickel pig iron (NPI) stood at 41,900 mt in July, up 7.63% month on month. For NPI at different grade, July output of high-grade NPI stood at 33,700 mt, up 4.9% month on month; while low-grade NPI stood at 8,300 mt, up 20.55%. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.77% to settled at 1436 while prices up 20.3 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1430.9 and below same could see a test of 1418 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1453.1, a move above could see prices testing 1462.4.

Trading Ideas:
 

* Nickel trading range for the day is 1418-1462.4.
* Nickel rose due to strong demand for nickel from stainless steel and new energy sector, tightened supply.
* Nickel output stood at around 12,335 mt in July, down 13.48% or 1,922 mt month on month
* Output of nickel pig iron (NPI) stood at 41,900 mt in July, up 7.63% month on month.
 

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 1.05% at 207.15 as social inventories kept de-stocking above expectation amid a weak supply & demand pattern, offering strong support to prices. New power consumption restrictions imposed by southern China's Guangxi region on aluminium producers at the weekend could temporarily shut down about half a million tonnes of annual smelting capacity. Data showed U.S. job openings jumped to a record high in June and hiring increased. That came on the heels of Friday’s U.S. monthly jobs report that showed U.S. employers hired the most workers in nearly a year in July and continued to raise wages. China’s central bank said it would keep prudent monetary policy flexible and appropriate while prioritising stability. In its second-quarter monetary policy implementation report, the People’s Bank of China said it would keep liquidity reasonably ample and step up support for technology innovation, small firms and the manufacturing sector. China will promote the healthy development of capital markets and better protect the interests of investors, the central bank said. China produced 3.28 million mt of aluminium in July, up 5.06% on the year. The average daily output was 106,000 mt, down 1,500 mt from June. The output totalled 22.75 million from January to July, an increase of 7.65% on the year. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 9.75% to settled at 2027 while prices up 2.15 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 205.7 and below same could see a test of 204.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 208, a move above could see prices testing 208.9.

Trading Ideas:
 

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 204.3-208.9.
* Aluminium gained as social inventories kept de-stocking above expectation amid a weak supply & demand pattern, offering strong support to prices.
* New power consumption restrictions could temporarily shut down about half a million tonnes of annual smelting capacity.
* China's central bank to keep monetary policy flexible, appropriate

Mentha oil 

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -1.79% at 927.1 as average yield in Barabanki is improved by 5-6 kgs per acre due to better weather. Pressure seen arrivals likely to increase due to favourable weather conditions. Daily arrivals should gradually pick up to 400-500 drums in next 7-10 days. Last week, prices rallied. The Lucknow-based Central Institute of Medicinal and Aromatic Plants estimates that this adverse effect of rains on the crop is expected to reduce production by 30% in the last two weeks. The crop is prone to rain because the leaves of the crop start falling due to waterlogging in the field. Most of the farmers have planted Mentha crops and this rain is not less than acid for 50 percent of Mentha crop. Last month, support seen due to the rotting of the crop due to stagnant water in the field. The past few weeks have been painful as heavy rains in the pre-monsoon season have damaged the mentha crop which was ready for harvesting. Due to drowning in the water, the rows have started to wither. With the harvesting of the crop, oil extraction work has also started. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 1.3 Rupees to end at 1052.3 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.02% to settled at 1074 while prices down -16.9 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 915.5 and below same could see a test of 903.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 945.4, a move above could see prices testing 963.6.

Trading Ideas:
 

* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 903.8-963.6.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 1.3 Rupees to end at 1052.3 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil prices dropped as average yield in Barabanki improved
* Pressure seen arrivals likely to increase due to favourable weather conditions.
* The past few weeks have been painful as heavy rains in the pre-monsoon season have damaged the mentha crop which was ready for harvesting.

Soyabean

Soyabean yesterday settled down by -6% at 7618 after update that soybean registered the highest growth in their acreage as overall Kharif sowing in Gujarat has touched 76.67 lakh hectare (lh) or 82.61 per cent of last three years’ average, latest data of the state government shows. Farmers have completed sowing soybean in 2.19 lakh hectare (lh), a growth of around 71 per cent over and above the last year’s average acreage of 1.28 lh. It is around 67 per cent higher as compared to last Kharif season’s 1.47 lh cultivation area for this oilseed. The increase in soybean sowing area comes in the backdrop of a rally in prices of all edible oils in domestic market and de-oiled cake (DOC) of soybean in international market. Overall, farmers so far have sown oilseed crops in total 22.96 lh, the highest for any group of crops in the state so far and more than one-fourth of the total area sown so far this season. U.S. exporters sold 436,200 tonnes of soybeans during the week ended July 29, in line with trade expectations, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The USDA also announced a daily sale of 300,000 tonnes of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2021/2022 marketing year. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean dropped -1115 Rupees to 8622 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.86% to settled at 17235 while prices down -486 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 7564 and below same could see a test of 7510 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7726, a move above could see prices testing 7834.

Trading Ideas:

* Soyabean trading range for the day is 7510-7834.
* Soyabean prices dropped after update that soybean registered the highest growth in their acreage in Gujarat.
* Farmers have completed sowing soybean in 2.19 lakh hectare (lh), above the last year’s average acreage of 1.28 lh.
* The increase in soybean sowing area comes in the backdrop of a rally in prices of all edible oils in domestic market
* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean dropped  -1115 Rupees to 8622 Rupees per 100 kgs.

Soyaoil 

Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled up by 1.74% at 1351 supported by lingering concerns over tight supply. However upside seen limited as update India's imports of sunflower oil could rise to a record in 2021/22 as potential bumper crops in Russia and Ukraine pull prices below rival soyoil, making it lucrative for price-sensitive buyers from the subcontinent, industry officials said. India is the world's biggest importer of edible oils and higher purchases of sunflower oil could help exporters such as Argentina, Russia and Ukraine to dispose of surplus output. All India, oilseed sowing area has been reported about 173.50 lakh ha compared to normal of corresponding week (164.88 lakh ha). Thus 8.62 lakh ha more area has been covered compared to normal of corresponding week. China raised its forecast on imports of edible oils in 2020/21 marketing year, on increase of palm oil and sunflower oil shipments, the country's agriculture ministry said. China's 2020/21 edible oils imports were seen at 10.23 million tonnes, up 900,000 tonnes from last month's forecast, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said in its monthly crop report. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1380.1 Rupees per 10 kgs.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.33% to settled at 26250 while prices up 23.1 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1327 and below same could see a test of 1303 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1365, a move above could see prices testing 1379.

Trading Ideas:
 

* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1303-1379.
* Ref soyoil ended with gains supported by lingering concerns over tight supply.
* However upside seen limited as update India's imports of sunflower oil could rise to a record in 2021/22
* India is the world's biggest importer of edible oils and higher purchases of sunflower oil could help exporters such to dispose of surplus output.
* At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1380.1 Rupees per 10 kgs.

Crude palm Oil 

Crude palm Oil yesterday settled up by 1.39% at 1135.1 lifted by forecasts showing tight supply, lower production in July and hopes of a rise in August exports. Quarantine measures at Chinese ports are reportedly delaying shipments and increasing freight charges, which could cause some short covering at destination markets including India, Bangladesh, Europe and Pakistan. The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) is scheduled to announce July supply and demand data on Wednesday, while cargo surveyors are expected to release data on Aug. 1-10 export shipments. Malaysia's palm oil stockpile at the end of July likely expanded to its highest in 10 months, even as production is seen shrinking by 4%. Inventories in the world's second-largest palm oil producer are seen rising for a fifth month, up 1.6% to 1.64 million tonnes from June. Production is pegged to fall for the first time in five months, defying hopes for stronger output amid the peak production months. The government has set the ambitious target for more than three-fold increase in domestic palm oil production, from the current 3 lakh tonnes to 11 lakh tonnes by 2025-26, to reduce India's high dependence on import of edible oil. In spot market, Crude palm oil dropped by -1.9 Rupees to end at 1172.1 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 9.12% to settled at 6021 while prices up 15.6 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 1113.8 and below same could see a test of 1092.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1147.8, a move above could see prices testing 1160.4.

Trading Ideas:
 

* CPO trading range for the day is 1092.4-1160.4.
* Crude palm oil gained lifted by forecasts showing tight supply, lower production in July and hopes of a rise in August exports.
* Malaysia's palm oil stockpile at the end of July likely expanded to its highest in 10 months
*The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) is scheduled to announce July supply and demand data on Wednesday.
* In spot market, Crude palm oil dropped  by -1.9 Rupees to end at 1172.1 Rupees.

Mustard Seed

Mustard Seed yesterday settled down by -1.87% at 7557 as mustard arrivals in its major producing states i.e. Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat improved. However upside seen limited as production in Canada in 2021 expected to drop by 1.7 million tons to 16.9 million tons. As per sources, estimated mustard crushing during June 2021 stood at 6 lakh tonnes, lower by 33% compared to 9 lakh tonnes last month it is also lower by 25% against 8 lakh tonnes in June 2020. Further negative crush margin for mustard seed also discouraged crushing activity and further reduced buying interest for mustard seed. India’s Rapeseed meal exports fell by 46% to 0.97 lakh tonnes on M-o-M basis during May-2021. However mustard meal exports were higher by 66% as compared to same period last year. In 2022-22 marketing year (Mar-Feb), total arrivals reported were up by 309% as compared to the arrivals during the corresponding period last year. As per USDA in its June-21 update, World Mustard seed production for 2021-22 is estimated to increase by 4% at 741 lakh tonnes. The beginning stock estimated to fall by 25% to 57 lakh tonnes. Total consumption estimated to remain same around last year and ending stocks are also estimated to be lower by 1% at 57 lakh tonnes. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices dropped -154.5 Rupees to end at 7634 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 11.78% to settled at 33120 while prices down -144 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 7428 and below same could see a test of 7298 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7653, a move above could see prices testing 7748.

Trading Ideas:
 

* Rmseed trading range for the day is 7298-7748.
* Mustard seed dropped as arrivals in its major producing states i.e. Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat improved.
* However upside seen limited as production in Canada in 2021 expected to drop by 1.7 million tons to 16.9 million tons.
* In 2022-22 marketing year (Mar-Feb), total arrivals reported were up by 309% as compared to the arrivals during the corresponding period last year.
* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices dropped -154.5 Rupees to end at 7634 Rupees per 100 kg.

Turmeric 

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -0.88% at 7442 amid comfortable supplies of Turmeric with pick-up in mandi arrivals along with sufficient availability of stocks with traders. Further there is expectation of increase in Turmeric sowings in some areas were the key factors that dented market sentiments in the month of June. As the lockdown restrictions were eased in the month of June, the key Turmeric growing states, including Maharashtra and Telangana reported noticeable increase in mandi arrivals, which augmented physical market supplies and pressurized prices. Mandi arrivals of Turmeric, at all-India level, more than doubled in June 2021 compared to the previous month supported by substantial increase in arrivals in Maharashtra and Telangana. Mandi arrivals had remained sluggish in April and May due to closure of mandis in many regions on account of festival season and Covid related lockdown restrictions. The demand remained subdued from bulk buyers from major consumption centres in the country. According to the statistics of the Department of Commerce, Government of India, the highest number of 1.84 lakh tonnes of turmeric was exported during the last financial year 2020-21. The export of turmeric is highest in the months of May, June and July. After the relaxation of the lockdown in some states, spot prices have started increasing in Erode and Nanded mandis last week. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7310 Rupees dropped -77.5 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 11.29% to settled at 10055 while prices down -66 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7398 and below same could see a test of 7354 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7496, a move above could see prices testing 7550.

Trading Ideas:
 

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7354-7550.
* Turmeric dropped amid comfortable supplies of Turmeric with pick-up in mandi arrivals along with sufficient availability of stocks with traders.
* Further there is expectation of increase in Turmeric sowings in some areas were the key factors that dented market sentiments
* The demand remained subdued from bulk buyers from major consumption centres in the country.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7310 Rupees dropped -77.5 Rupees.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled down by -0.59% at 13425 due to higher availability with farmers and general demand from stockists. Pressure also seen due to the uncertainty of the lockdown over a possible third wave of Covid and low demand from the hotel industry. Mandi arrivals of Jeera, at all-India level more than doubled in June 2021 compared to the previous month following increased arrivals in Gujarat as well as Rajasthan. As per preliminary estimates suggested that carryover stocks of Jeera are likely to be around of about 20-25 Lakh bags (of 55 Kg each), i.e., 1.10 to 1.30 lakh tonnes which are higher than usual range of 7-12 Lakh bags. However, after accounting for wastage, and increased exports, market participants are expecting carryover stocks to be around 0.65-0.70 lakh tonnes. It may be noted that during the FY 2020-21 Jeera exports stood at 2.98 lakh tonnes, 39% higher over the previous year. As per sources, export demand for Jeera is expected to recover as close competitors of India in terms of exporting Jeera, viz., Turkey and Syria may not supply much to the world due to lower exportable surplus. It has been reported that production in Syria is likely to be lower because of political instability and in Turkey is also likely to be lower compared to previous year. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -52.75 Rupees to end at 13508.35 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 16.2% to settled at 4584 while prices down -80 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 13370 and below same could see a test of 13320 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 13480, a move above could see prices testing 13540.

Trading Ideas:
 

* Jeera trading range for the day is 13320-13540.
* Jeera dropped due to higher availability with farmers and general demand from stockists.
* Pressure also seen due to the uncertainty of the lockdown over a possible third wave of Covid and low demand from the hotel industry.
* As per preliminary estimates suggested that carryover stocks of Jeera are likely to be around of about 20-25 Lakh bags
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -52.75 Rupees to end at 13508.35 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled down by -0.76% at 26220 as all India, Cotton sowing reported about 116.17 lakh ha area compared to normal of corresponding week (114.22 lakh ha). Thus 1.95 lakh ha more area has been covered compared to normal of corresponding week. The U.S. Department of Agriculture's weekly export sales report showed net sales of 149,300 running bales (RB) for the 2021/2022 marketing year and exports of 229,500 RB, down 4% from the previous week and 5% from the prior 4-week average. Cotton sowing across the country has picked up with the revival of monsoon in several states, after seeing a lull in the month of July due to a dry spell. Sowing in the north is almost complete with Punjab reporting a slight dip. The sowing has been normal in Haryana while Rajasthan and Gujarat had reported dry spells. There has been a dip in Maharashtra since farmers shifted to other crops like soybean and groundnut, but some pick up is likely in Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. The lower acreage is largely attributed to delayed rains. But with kapas prices ruling at Rs 8000 per quintal, sowing is expected to continue till August-end across various states including Andhra, Telangana, Gujarat, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu. In spot market, Cotton dropped by -220 Rupees to end at 27050 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -11.26% to settled at 4177 while prices down -200 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 25850 and below same could see a test of 25480 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 26640, a move above could see prices testing 27060.

Trading Ideas:
 

* Cotton trading range for the day is 25480-27060.
* Cotton prices dropped as all India, Cotton sowing reported about 116.17 lakh ha area i.e up by 1.71%
* Cotton sowing across the country has picked up with the revival of monsoon in several states, after seeing a lull in the month of July due to a dry spell.
* USDA’s weekly export sales report showed net sales of 149,300 running bales (RB) for the 2021/2022 marketing year.
* In spot market, Cotton dropped  by -220 Rupees to end at 27050 Rupees.
 

Chana

Chana yesterday settled down by -0.98% at 5030 as production of pulses has been increasing during the last three years (2018-19 to 2020-21) and the target for 2021-2022 has been set at 23 LMT (lakh million tonnes) from the 19.5 LMT for 2020-2021, the Parliament was informed. Data from the government showed that all India production of pulses during 2016-17 to 2020-21 -- all numbers in '000 tonnes -- was 23,130.94 for 2016-17, 25,415.92 for 2017-18, 22,075.96 for 2018-19, 23,025.25 for 2019-20, and for 2020-21, it is projected at 25,575.69, as per the 3rd advance estimates. All India, pulses sowing area coverage has been reported to about 119.54 lakh ha area compared to normal of corresponding week (121.69 lakh ha). Thus 2.15 lakh ha less area has been covered compared to normal of corresponding week. The India is likely to receive an average amount of rainfall in August and September, the state-run weather office said, raising expectations of higher crop yields in Asia's third-biggest economy, which relies heavily on the vast farm sector. "As per most parameters, we expect monsoon rains to be normal in August and September this year," Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director General of the state-run India Meteorological Department (IMD), told a news conference. In Delhi spot market, chana gained by 4.15 Rupees to end at 4906.65 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 5.2% to settled at 90020 while prices down -50 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 5002 and below same could see a test of 4974 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5069, a move above could see prices testing 5108.

Trading Ideas:
 

* Chana trading range for the day is 4974-5108.
* Chana dropped as production of pulses has been increasing during the last three years and the target for 2021-2022 has been set at 23 LMT
* All India, pulses sowing area coverage has been reported to about 119.54 lakh ha, down by 2.15 lakh ha less area
* India is likely to receive an average amount of rainfall in August and September, the state-run weather office said
* In Delhi spot market, chana gained  by 4.15 Rupees to end at 4906.65 Rupees per 100 kgs.

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