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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.25% at 44951 recovering from weakness, amid expectations the lower interest regime will continue to push up bullion prices. The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yield vaulted above 1.74% for the first time since January 2020, while the dollar jumped 0.6%. Investors view gold as a hedge against higher inflation that could follow stimulus measures, but higher Treasury yields dull some of the appeal of the non-yielding commodity. The U.S. economy appears set to leave other developed markets in the dust this year with the largest annual growth spurt in decades, new Federal Reserve forecasts indicate, but that divergence is not worrying to the central bank's top official. "U.S. demand, very strong U.S. demand, as the economy improves, is going to support global activity as well, over time," Powell said in a news conference following the Fed's latest two-day policy meeting. "When the U.S. economy is strong that strength tends to support global activity as well, so that's one thing." Powell's comments came as he was asked about sharply contrasting outlooks that have emerged in recent weeks, in particular between the United States, where the vaccine rollout is on pace and federal relief spending approved in the last few months totals nearly $3 trillion, and Europe, where the inoculation effort is lagging and relief funds approved months ago remain in limbo. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -7.12% to settled at 8103 while prices up 111 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 44619 and below same could see a test of 44286 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 45292, a move above could see prices testing 45632.   

Trading Ideas:            

* Gold trading range for the day is 44286-45632.

* Gold closed higher recovering from weakness, amid expectations the lower interest regime will continue to push up bullion prices. 

* The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yield vaulted above 1.74% for the first time since January 2020, while the dollar jumped 0.6%.

* The U.S. economy appears set to leave other developed markets in the dust this year with the largest annual growth spurt in decades.

Silver     

Silver yesterday settled up by 0.77% at 67747 after the U.S. Federal Reserve kept the interest rate unchanged and reiterated its stance to keep benchmark rates near-zero through at least 2023. The Fed's assessment of U.S. growth, which could be fastest since 1984 this year, also weighed on the precious metal. The dollar pushed higher helped by rising U.S. Treasury yields after the Federal Reserve said it expects inflation to rise to 2.4 percent in 2021, much higher than the target inflation rate of 2 percent, before slowing to 2 percent in 2022. Investors worry that if inflation picks up, central banks might respond by raising interest rates, which would cool economic growth. The U.S. economy was on track for its fastest expansion in nearly 40 years, the Fed said while reaffirming its ultra-easy monetary policy stance. Higher U.S. interest rates and Treasury bond yields raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose to 770 thousand in the week ended March 13th, the highest level in a month and above market expectations of 700 thousand, as the Covid-19 crisis continued to affect the labor market. Still, claims are seen falling in the coming weeks following the approval of President Biden's relief package and as several states ease coronavirus-induced restrictions. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.37% to settled at 11515 while prices up 520 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 66932 and below same could see a test of 66118 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 68515, a move above could see prices testing 69284.    

Trading Ideas:            

* Silver trading range for the day is 66118-69284.

* Silver remained positive after  Fed kept the interest rate unchanged and reiterated its stance to keep benchmark rates near-zero through at least 2023.

* The Fed's assessment of U.S. growth, which could be fastest since 1984 this year, also weighed on the precious metal.

* The dollar pushed higher helped by rising U.S. Treasury yields after the Federal Reserve said it expects inflation to rise to 2.4 percent in 2021

Crude oil  

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -4.88% at 4465 after official data showed a sustained rise in U.S. crude and fuel inventories, while the ever-present pandemic clouded the demand outlook. U.S. crude oil, gasoline and distillate stockpiles all rose last week, as refiners boosted output with more facilities coming back online following February's devastating storms in Texas. Crude inventories rose by 2.4 million barrels in the week to March 12, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said, compared with expectations for an increase of 3 million barrels. An extended surge in oil prices is unlikely as the world rebounds from the pandemic given ample supply but changes are seen in demand and gasoline may have peaked, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said. "Oil's sharp rally to near $70 a barrel has spurred talk of a new supercycle and a looming supply shortfall. Our data and analysis suggest otherwise," the IEA said in its monthly report. Gasoline demand may never recover to pre-pandemic levels, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said, with increased use in developing countries offset by rising fuel efficiency and a switch to electric vehicles in wealthy nations. In last year's five-year outlook before the COVID-19 pandemic's full force was felt in Western countries, the IEA said that gasoline demand was approaching a plateau and kept its demand outlook figure steady from 2024 to 2025. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 163.8% to settled at 2266 while prices down -229 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 4361 and below same could see a test of 4258 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4648, a move above could see prices testing 4832.    

Trading Ideas:            

* Crude oil trading range for the day is 4258-4832.

* Crude oil prices dropped after official data showed a sustained rise in U.S. crude and fuel inventories, while the ever-present pandemic clouded the demand outlook.

* U.S. crude, fuel stockpiles rise as refiners boost output -EIA

* IEA says oil supercycle unlikely but gasoline demand may have peaked

Nat.Gas      

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -1.63% at 181.4 on a smaller than expected storage withdrawal last week due to mild weather and low heating demand. That price decline came even though liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports remain on track to hit record highs. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said U.S. utilities pulled just 11 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage during the week ended March 12. That was less than the 17-bcf decline analysts forecast in a poll and compares with a decrease of 15 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2016-2020) average withdrawal of 59 bcf. Last week's decrease cut stockpiles to 1.782 trillion cubic feet (tcf), or 5.0% below the five-year average of 1.875 tcf for this time of year. Over the past five years, utilities have pulled on average 51 bcf of gas from storage during the week ended March 19 and pulled 24 bcf during the week ended March 26. Data provider Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 U.S. states averaged 91.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in March, up sharply from a 28-month low of 86.5 bcfd in February, when extreme weather froze gas wells and pipes in Texas. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.99% to settled at 8904 while prices down -3 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 177.3 and below same could see a test of 173.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 184.6, a move above could see prices testing 187.7. 

Trading Ideas:            

* Natural gas trading range for the day is 173.1-187.7.

*  Natural gas fell on a smaller than expected storage withdrawal last week due to mild weather and low heating demand.

* That price decline came even though liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports remain on track to hit record highs.

* The U.S. EIA said U.S. utilities pulled just 11 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage during the week ended March 12.

Copper      

Copper yesterday settled down by -0.16% at 675.05 after inventories in warehouses tracked by the London Metal Exchange rose to their highest in more than two months. However downside seen limited as a dovish Federal Reserve message sent the dollar lower after projecting a jump in U.S. economic growth this year, making greenback-priced metals cheaper to holders of other currencies. The U.S. Fed dampened a speculation that it would wind back stimulus despite an expected surge of inflation and the U.S. economy heading for its strongest growth in nearly 40 years. The Federal Reserve announced the latest interest rate decision in March, which was in line with market expectations. Powell reiterated that inflation is a temporary phenomenon, and there is no need to take action on the rise of US bond yields. He predicted that the benchmark interest rate will remain near zero level until the end of 2023. The Fed's zero interest rate outlook and quantitative easing policy remained unchanged, while the three major stock indexes of US stocks were boosted and rose across the board, with the S&P 500 index and Dow Jones index both reaching record highs. China produced 821,800 mt of copper cathode in February, rising 2.89% from January and 20.31% from a year ago, as some copper smelters recovered from maintenance. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.07% to settled at 2696 while prices down -1.05 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 671.7 and below same could see a test of 668.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 678.6, a move above could see prices testing 682.       

Trading Ideas:            

* Copper trading range for the day is 668.2-682.

* Copper prices fell after inventories in warehouses tracked by the London Metal Exchange rose to their highest in more than two months.

* However downside seen limited  as a dovish Federal Reserve message sent the dollar lower after projecting a jump in U.S. economic growth this year

* LME copper inventories hit their highest since Dec. 30, 2020 at 107,275 tonnes.

Zinc      

Zinc yesterday settled down by -1.32% at 216.45 as Zinc social inventories increased as high prices depressed demand. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said that the central bank might need some time before the recently agreed acceleration in the pace of bond purchases. These remarks followed the central bank's decision last week to boost the pace of money printing to bring yields down and support the Eurozone economic recovery. Elsewhere, investors continued to monitor the slow pace of COVID-19 vaccination in the EU and its impact on Europe's economic recovery. The Federal Reserve on Wednesday sharply ramped up its expectations for economic growth but indicated that there are no interest rate hikes likely through 2023 despite an improving outlook and a turn this year to higher inflation. As widely expected, the policymaking Federal Open Market Committee also voted to keep short-term borrowing rates steady near zero, while continuing an asset purchase program in which the central bank buys at least $120 billion of bonds a month. The key changes came in how central bankers view the economic road ahead and what impact that could have on policy. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 7.52% to settled at 1874 while prices down -2.9 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 215 and below same could see a test of 213.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 218.6, a move above could see prices testing 220.8.   

Trading Ideas:            

* Zinc trading range for the day is 213.6-220.8.

* Zinc prices dropped as Zinc social inventories increased as high prices depressed demand.

* ECB President Lagarde said that the central bank might need some time before the recently agreed acceleration in the pace of bond purchases.

* Investors continued to monitor the slow pace of COVID-19 vaccination in the EU and its impact on Europe's economic recovery.

Nickel      

Nickel yesterday settled down by -0.2% at 1159.6 as dollar index rebounded as Treasury yields continue to soar amid persistent concerns over rising inflation. Sentiment continued to be dominated by concerns about oversupply after China's Tsingshan Holding Group said it would provide domestic markets with an extra 100,000 tonnes of nickel matte. China’s nickel plate premiums fell amid a closed arbitrage window while market participants in Europe and the United States reported minimal buying interest. The Federal Reserve pledged to keep the near-zero rate outlook for at least 2023 despite strong growth and inflation outlook. Fed Chair also reiterated any rise in inflation would likely be temporary and showed no concerns over the recent bond sell-off. Still, the message failed to calm investors' concerns over price pressures. Investors expected a more hawkish tone from the US central bank given the successful vaccine rollout and recently agreed on fiscal stimulus. The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose to 770 thousand in the week ended March 13th, the highest level in a month and above market expectations of 700 thousand, as the Covid-19 crisis continued to affect the labor market. Still, claims are seen falling in the coming weeks following the approval of President Biden's relief package and as several states ease coronavirus-induced restrictions. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.66% to settled at 1919 while prices down -2.3 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1155.8 and below same could see a test of 1152 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1164.7, a move above could see prices testing 1169.8. 

Trading Ideas:            

* Nickel trading range for the day is 1152-1169.8.

* Nickel prices dropped as dollar index rebounded as Treasury yields continue to soar amid persistent concerns over rising inflation.

* China’s nickel plate premiums fell amid a closed arbitrage window while market participants in Europe and US reported minimal buying interest.

* China's Tsingshan Holding Group said it would provide domestic markets with an extra 100,000 tonnes of nickel matte.

Aluminium      

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.34% at 175.45 as LME cash aluminium was at its biggest discount since October 2020 of $33.50 a tonne discount to the three-month contract as exchange inventories jumped. Carbon neutralization pushed refined aluminium to industry hotspots, and supply and demand improved on the fundamentals. In recent session prices remained supported as supply concerns in top consumer China rose after an aluminium hub ordered power cuts and industrial production shutdowns. The Chinese city of Baotou in Inner Mongolia, a major aluminium producing region, ordered the shutdowns as part of the nation's plan to reduce carbon emissions. Aluminium inventories in LME warehouses were hovering around their highest since March 2017, while stockpiles in ShFE warehouses hit a high level unseen since April 2020 last week, latest data showed. China's aluminium production rose 8.4% in the first two months of 2021 compared with the same period last year, official data showed on Monday, as smelters added new capacity and cashed in on soaring prices. Primary aluminium output in China, the world's biggest aluminium producer, was 6.45 million tonnes in January and February combined, the National Bureau of Statistics said. China added 220,000 tonnes of annual aluminium production capacity in January and February, all of it in the emerging smelting hub of Yunnan province in Southwest China. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.61% to settled at 1294 while prices down -0.6 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 174.5 and below same could see a test of 173.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 176.5, a move above could see prices testing 177.5.  

Trading Ideas:            

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 173.5-177.5.

*  Aluminium prices dropped as LME cash aluminium was at its biggest discount since October 2020 of $33.50 as exchange inventories jumped.

* Carbon neutralization pushed refined aluminium to industry hotspots, and supply and demand improved on the fundamentals.

* The Chinese city of Baotou in Inner Mongolia, a major aluminium producing region, ordered the shutdowns as part of the nation's plan to reduce carbon emissions.

Mentha oil       

Mentha oil yesterday settled up flat at 952.7 amid weak demand from cosmetics and toiletries sector in India. The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market. The market has been faced with the lack of migrant labor, supply chain disruptions, shutdown of manufacturing activities, to name a few. Support also seen on the expectation that India’s fragrance industry which had been slow, now slowly gaining the positive momentum post the COVID unlock down. Headed towards a new decade, the fragrance industry has received a much needed boost with the acceptance of trendy dhoop sticks and dhoop cones which has seen an increased 20% demand day by day. The global aroma chemicals market is likely to record a steady CAGR of about 4% during the assessment period of 2020-2030. Growing demand for aroma chemicals in the food & beverage and fragrance industry will underpin the growth of the market. Strict regulations in relation to artificial flavours are complimenting to the expansion of natural aroma chemicals in the food sector. Out of India's total mentha oil exports, nearly 55% goes to China while 16% goes to the US and around 5% goes to Singapore. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -1.9 Rupees to end at 1103.7 Rupees per 360 kgs. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.22% to settled at 44 while prices up 0.1 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 949.1 and below same could see a test of 945.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 955.6, a move above could see prices testing 958.6.      

Trading Ideas:            

* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 945.6-958.6.

* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -1.9 Rupees to end at 1103.7 Rupees per 360 kgs.

* Mentha oil settled flat amid weak demand from cosmetics and toiletries sector in India. 

* The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market.

* The global aroma chemicals market is likely to record a steady CAGR of about 4% during the assessment period of 2020-2030.

Soyabean      

Soyabean yesterday settled down by -1.23% at 5367 tracking weakness in overseas prices as rains in parts of parched Argentina boosted hopes of supplies from the world's biggest exporter of soyoil and soymeal. Rain storms this week in Argentina's Pampas farm belt have slowed the deterioration of many drought-hit soybean and corn fields. Soy and corn are Argentina's main cash crops, dryness has blighted Pampas since mid-2020, prompting the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange last week to cut its soy and corn harvest estimates. In Argentina, we’ve actually seen some more rains come through and they will continue to have some storms come through to give us a little bit of an idea if it fixes or stabilizes their crop. Brazil’s AgRural reported the country’s soybean harvest had reached 46 percent as of March 11th, below the average pace and behind last year’s 59 percent over the same period. McBride notes the 46 percent is an improvement compared with Brazil’s 35 percent pace for the week ending March 4th. Chinese imports have been surprisingly high as China's economy continues growing strongly and the nation rebuilds its hog herd from massive African swine fever losses, resulting in a surge of mostly corn and soybean imports. Pressure also seen as slowing export sales as global demand shifts to South American supplies and as U.S. farmers prepare to dramatically increase plantings of the oilseed this spring. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 32 Rupees to 5631 Rupees per 100 kgs. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.18% to settled at 136865 while prices down -67 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 5316 and below same could see a test of 5266 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5418, a move above could see prices testing 5470.   

Trading Ideas:            

* Soyabean trading range for the day is 5266-5470.

* Soyabean slid tracking weakness in overseas prices as rains in parts of parched Argentina boosted hopes of supplies

* Markets were already basking in the glow of continued robust demand from China and tightening US soybeans supplies.

* Brazil's Abiove sees 2021 soybean exports at record 84 million tns

* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained  32 Rupees to 5631 Rupees per 100 kgs.

Ref.Soyaoil​​​​​​​      

Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled down by -2.33% at 1231.8 tracking weakness in Soyabean prices as rains in parts of parched Argentina boosted hopes of supplies from the world's biggest exporter of soyoil. The U.S. soybean crush was well below trade expectations in February, sinking to the lowest in 17 months, according to data released by the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA). NOPA members, which handle about 95 percent of all soybeans processed in the United States, crushed 155.158 million bushels of soybeans last month, the lowest for a single month since September 2019. The crush was down from 184.654 million bushels in January and 166.288 million bushels in February 2020. Although it was the second-largest February crush on record, behind only February 2020, the crush came in below trade expectations as severe winter weather likely limited the processing pace at times during the month. NOPA said soyoil supplies among its members at the end of February dipped slightly to 1.757 billion lbs, from 1.799 billion lbs at the end of January and 1.922 billion lbs at the end of February 2020. Iran's state purchasing agency the Government Trading Corporation (GTC) has issued international tenders for the purchase of 30,000 tonnes of soyoil, 30,000 tonnes of sunflower oil and 30,000 tonnes of palm olein oil. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1265 Rupees per 10 kgs. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.1% to settled at 56980 while prices down -29.4 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1218 and below same could see a test of 1205 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1252, a move above could see prices testing 1273.

Trading Ideas:            

* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1205-1273.

* Ref soyoil prices dropped tracking weakness in Soyabean prices as rains in parts of parched Argentina boosted hopes of supplies

* Iran's state purchasing agency the Government Trading Corporation (GTC) has issued international tenders for the purchase of 30,000 tonnes of soyoil 30,000 tonnes

* NOPA February soy crush drops to 17 – month low of 155.158 million bushels, below estimates

* At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1265 Rupees per 10 kgs.

Crude palm Oil​​​​​​​    

Crude palm Oil yesterday settled down by -2% at 1095.5 weighed down by slower demand and higher production concerns. Traders are anticipating a double-digit growth in production after industry groups forecast a sharp rise in output during March 1-15. Malaysia has kept its April export duty for crude palm oil at 8%, though it raised the reference price, a circular on the Malaysian Palm Oil Board website showed. Exports of palm oil from the world's top producer Indonesia rose nearly 20% on annual basis in January, the country's biggest palm group said, but output was disrupted by flood and stock fell to a six-month low. Indonesia exported 2.86 million tonnes of palm oil and its products in January, up 19.6% from the same month last year, data from the Indonesia Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) showed. On a monthly basis, however, shipments dropped 18% amid lower demand from China, Malaysia and India compared to December, GAPKI said in the statement. Meanwhile, in January, Indonesia produced 3.76 million tonnes of crude palm oil and kernel oil, down from 4.04 million tonnes in December and was the lowest monthly output since May. In spot market, Crude palm oil dropped by -15 Rupees to end at 1143 Rupees. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -21.46% to settled at 3582 while prices down -22.4 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 1085.9 and below same could see a test of 1076.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1109.6, a move above could see prices testing 1123.8.    

Trading Ideas:            

* CPO trading range for the day is 1076.4-1123.8.

* Crude palm oil prices dropped weighed down by slower demand and higher production concerns. 

* Malaysia has kept its April export duty for crude palm oil at 8%, though it raised the reference price

* Exports of palm oil from the world's top producer Indonesia rose nearly 20% on annual basis in January

* In spot market, Crude palm oil dropped  by -15 Rupees to end at 1143 Rupees.

Mustard Seed      

Mustard Seed yesterday settled down by -2.59% at 5595 as arrivals have begun in other growing States such as Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat. In markets such as Alwar, Baran and Tonk in Rajasthan, where arrivals exceeded over 1,000 tonnes. Mustard production, according to the second advance estimates of the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, is seen at 10.43 million tonnes against last year’s 9.12 million tonnes, an increase of 14 per cent. The trade estimates the crop between 8.5 and 9 million tonnes, higher than the last year’s 7.5 million tonnes. The availability of water due to good rains coupled with favourable weather conditions is seen helping the mustard crop this year. SEA, which expects the crop at around 8.5-9 million tonnes this year, will release the results of its crop survey soon. Mustard acreage in 2020-21 rabi season was higher by about five lakh hectares at nearly 74 lakh hectares, with almost all major producing states reporting an increase in area. India had the lowest yield per hectare, among the mustard producing countries. As against the world average of 2144 kg per hectare, the Indian mustard yields stood at 1161 kg per ha during 2013-16. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 52.15 Rupees to end at 5574 Rupees per 100 kg. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.69% to settled at 48190 while prices down -149 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 5537 and below same could see a test of 5480 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5689, a move above could see prices testing 5784.    

Trading Ideas:            

* Rmseed trading range for the day is 5480-5784.

* Mustard seed prices dropped as arrivals have begun in other growing States such as Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat.

* In markets such as Alwar, Baran and Tonk in Rajasthan, where arrivals exceeded over 1,000 tonnes.

*  According to the second advance estimates, Mustard production, is seen at 10.43 million tonnes against last year’s 9.12 million tonnes

* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 52.15 Rupees to end at 5574 Rupees per 100 kg.

Turmeric       

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -2.45% at 8188 on profit booking as demand is low at higher levels and arrivals have started in key markets such as Nizamabad and Erode. In Nizamabad Mandi, 20,000 bags of turmeric have arrived while in Erode 5300 bags arrived. In Sangli 32,000 bags of arrivals in Sangli mandi, compared to 27,448 bags in the previous season. Pressure also seen as no demand for shipments at current prices of around ₹9,000 and export prospects of turmeric have been affected. The arrival of dry goods in the coming days, the quality will also start to improve. The arrival of new goods has started in Telangana and Sangli Mandi in Maharashtra. But due to less sowing this year, the production is also less likely than last year. In recent sessions, prices were up in the spot due to lack of stock and arrivals of new goods in the month of February. Further new goods arrived in the turmeric auction held in Sangli Mandi, Maharashtra in the beginning of the week but due to moisture and quality turmeric trade was low. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7876.3 Rupees gained 3.55 Rupees. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.92% to settled at 8420 while prices down -206 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 8064 and below same could see a test of 7942 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8376, a move above could see prices testing 8566.         

Trading Ideas:            

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7942-8566.

* Turmeric prices dropped on profit booking as demand is low at higher levels and arrivals have started in key markets such as Nizamabad and Erode.

* In Nizamabad Mandi, 20,000 bags of turmeric have arrived while in Erode 5300 bags arrived.

* In Sangli 32,000 bags of arrivals in Sangli mandi, compared to 27,448 bags in the previous season.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7876.3 Rupees gained 3.55 Rupees.

Jeera​​​​​​​      

Jeera yesterday settled up by 0.68% at 14790 as there is a possibility of a decrease in the production of cumin due to the rise in temperature. However upside seen limited as the arrival from the fields has started intensifying but the market is awaiting better quality spices with lower moisture content. In Unjha Mandi, 21,000 bags have come in as compared to 12,500 bags in Rajkot whereas 7,500 bags have arrived in Rajkot as compared to 7,000 bags in the previous session. The Unjha market is receiving nearly 1,000 bags per day from north Gujarat, Saurashtra, and parts of Rajasthan. Jeera production for 2021-22 (marketing period) is estimated at 391,291 MT (around 71 lakh bags each of 55 kg) compared to last year’s 451,451 MT (82 lakh bags). Major export demand coming from UAE and other gulf countries ahead of Ramzan. Domestic demand is also boosted by Ramzan and marriage season. Weather conditions in major producing states have hampered the quality and supply of jeera. On the international front support is also seen as turkey and Syria have reported less production of cumin this season. Production in Syria had dropped around 25-30 percent in 2020 versus the previous year due to political instability that has hampered the farming sector. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -40.6 Rupees to end at 14178.95 Rupees per 100 kg. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.59% to settled at 4212 while prices up 100 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 14680 and below same could see a test of 14565 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 14865, a move above could see prices testing 14935.   

Trading Ideas:            

* Jeera trading range for the day is 14565-14935.

* Jeera gained as there is a possibility of a decrease in the production of cumin due to the rise in temperature. 

*  However upside seen limited as the arrival from the fields has started intensifying 

* In Unjha Mandi, 21,000 bags have come in as compared to 12,500 bags in Rajkot whereas 7,500 bags have arrived as compared to 7,000 bags

* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -40.6 Rupees to end at 14178.95 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton ​​​​​​​      

Cotton yesterday settled down by -0.5% at 21910 as favorable weather in the cotton growing regions of the southern United States is expected to help the crop, while investors were awaiting a federal export sales report. The weather is getting better in the (U.S.) south with a lot of rains so, there is going to be excellent planting conditions once spring rolls up. India’s competitive advantage may not be sustained as the international cotton prices are seen falling on higher crop outlook in the next year. Trade body Cotton Association of India (CAI) has noted that so far about 60 per cent or 36 lakh bales has been shipped since the start of the season. USDA has kept production and consumption figures steady for India in the March WASDE report, but increased Indian Cotton export estimates to 57 million bales of 480 lbs compared to 50 lakh bales pegged earlier, which was already factored in by the market. The International Cotton Advisory Committee has scaled up its forecast for global prices in 2020-21 (August-July), as ending stocks for the ongoing season are estimated to be lower. The committee has revised upwards its price forecast for Cotlook A Index, global ending stocks for the season is estimated at 21.1 million tonnes, compared with 21.4 million tonnes the previous season. In spot market, Cotton dropped by -30 Rupees to end at 22160 Rupees. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6.27% to settled at 5385 while prices down -110 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 21800 and below same could see a test of 21680 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 22060, a move above could see prices testing 22200.       

Trading Ideas:            

* Cotton trading range for the day is 21680-22200.

* Cotton edged down as favorable weather in the cotton growing regions of the southern United States is expected to help the crop

* India’s cotton exports are likely to hit 60 lakh bales (each of 170 kg) for the current season  on cost competitiveness.

* USDA has kept production and consumption figures steady for India, but increased Indian Cotton export estimates to 57 million bales of 480 lbs

* In spot market, Cotton dropped  by -30 Rupees to end at 22160 Rupees.

Chana​​​​​​​      

Chana yesterday settled down by -0.71% at 5009 as Chana arrival in Baran Mandi, Rajasthan increased heavily to 80,000 bags. Pressure also seen as the central government has estimated the production of gram to rise from 111 lakh tonnes in 2019-20 to 116 lakh tonnes in the current Rabi season of 2020-21. However downside seen limited due to increasing sun and heat, the average yield rate of gram in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan is expected to fall by up to 25 percent. It may be noted that Madhya Pradesh remains first, Rajasthan second and Maharashtra third in the production of gram. Domestic production of gram is expected to be lower than expected during the current Rabi season, while demand is likely to remain strong in the upcoming festive and marriage season. The arrival of gram in the mandis is falling much less than expected. Chana crops are being affected due to adverse weather conditions in the major producing states. Compared to last year, this time there is good demand in gram. Chana's sowing center has increased from 107 lakh hectares in 2019-20 to 112 lakh hectares in the Rabi season of 2020-21. If the weather conditions were favorable, its total domestic production could have reached around 1 million tonnes. In Delhi spot market, chana dropped by -35.4 Rupees to end at 4917.6 Rupees per 100 kgs. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.12% to settled at 73760 while prices down -36 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 4960 and below same could see a test of 4910 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5062, a move above could see prices testing 5114.        

Trading Ideas:            

* Chana trading range for the day is 4910-5114.

* Chana prices dropped as arrival in Baran Mandi, Rajasthan increased heavily to 80,000 bags.

* Pressure also seen as the central government has estimated the production of gram to rise to 116 lakh tonnes in the current Rabi season of 2020-21.

* However downside seen limited due to increasing sun and heat, the average yield in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan is expected to fall by up to 25 percent.

* In Delhi spot market, chana dropped  by -35.4 Rupees to end at 4917.6 Rupees per 100 kgs.

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